2013 agricultural commodity outlook
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2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook. Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 7, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. Cattle Crush Margin. The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook
Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA Annual MeetingAmes, IowaFeb. 7, 2013
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 28 29 100
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,548 4,450
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,500
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,426 1,367
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 950
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.40
Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2
Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6
Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 215 169
Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,605
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 110 130 91 119
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,070
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 135
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.25
Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Prices
11.50
12.25
13.00
13.75
14.50
15.25
16.00
16.75
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
5/2
1/2
01
2
6/4
/201
2
6/1
8/2
01
2
7/2
/201
2
7/1
6/2
01
2
7/3
0/2
01
2
8/1
3/2
01
2
8/2
7/2
01
2
9/1
0/2
01
2
9/2
4/2
01
2
10
/8/2
01
2
10
/22/2
012
11
/5/2
01
2
11
/19/2
012
12
/3/2
01
2
12
/17/2
012
12
/31/2
012
1/1
4/2
01
3
1/2
8/2
01
3
$ p
er
bush
el
$ p
er
bush
el
Corn Soybeans
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Corn Yields
Top: 2012 YieldBottom: Change from 2011Units: Bushels/acre
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2012 YieldBottom: Change from 2011Units: Bushels/acre
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1
Mill
ion b
ush
els
Week
2010 2011 2012
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1
Mill
ion b
ush
els
Week
2010 2011 2012
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13
Mill
ion
bush
els
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13
Mill
ion
gallo
ns
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
1/1
/201
2
2/1
/201
2
3/1
/201
2
4/1
/201
2
5/1
/201
2
6/1
/201
2
7/1
/201
2
8/1
/201
2
9/1
/201
2
10/1
/20
12
11/1
/20
12
12/1
/20
12
1/1
/201
3
2/1
/201
3
$ p
er
ga
llon
Ethanol Gasoline
Fuel Prices
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
Feb
-13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
$ pe
r bu
shel
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013
6.78
5.57
5.37
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
Feb
-13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
$ pe
r bu
shel
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013
14.18
12.8212.44
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Total Acreage Shift
Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Acreage Shift by Crop
Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Acreage Shift by State
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: Planted in 2012Bottom: Change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2013 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issuesBiofuel and export strengthWorldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2012/13
Futures
(2/5/13)
2013/14
Futures
(2/5/13)
Corn $7.40 $6.78 $5.57
Soybeans $14.25 $14.18 $12.82
Risk managementCrop insurancePrice protection
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/