2013-->2040 a path to peace

Rest of the World

RUSSIA USA NAFTA

136 States

CEM

EPP INDIA CHINA

2013 à 2040 :

A path to Peace © copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - [email protected] - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778

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Europe 2013-2040 : the path to economic success

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!!Achieving a high and!sustainable!growth !

© copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - [email protected] - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Emerging Equity Gap: Growth And Stability In The New Investor Landscape (2011).

Who owns the world ? Western Europe goes from 34% down to 22% in only twenty years

Markets’ share of financial assets, 2000-2020

© copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - [email protected] - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778 3/36

UE 28

(2013)

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an unfinished !

business!

in need of !

new solutions!


EuroFederation

within the EU

(2019)

only 3 states to start with

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2019 = Big Bang

!


The new EUROFEDERATION: sustainable growth and prosperity engine for Europe

u  Third economic power after USA and China

u  A federal republic with headquarters in Strasbourg for Its government, parliament and judiciary institutions

u  Taking inspiration from the Swiss federation model

u  Business-friendly, with fiscal and administrative alignment in favor of entrepreneurs and SMEs

u  Harmonization of welfare measures, improving the so-called European social model

u  Compliant with the Lisbon treaty, ensuring safe working continuity with existing EU institutions

u  Created by same-day popular vote in the three countries (2019)

u  Three official languages (Deutsch, Français, Italiano)

u  EuroFederation budget set at 1% of GDP (in addtion to the existing 1% EU budget contribution )

u  Will treat only matters that are clearly better solved at federal rather than national level (environment, defense, economy, common standards…)

The EuroFederation is the necessary founding step that decisively improves European growth perspectives

u  209 millions inhabitants (5 th world rank ) u  Enhancing and developing French Overseas territories

u  Total area: 1.3 million km2 (20 th world rank)

STRASBOURG


The EuroFederation will generate sustainable economic growth for Europe, Russia and Mediterranean countries. this federal implementation will be, like in Switzerland : v  Non-centralizing v  Protecting local habits and traditions v  Pragmatic v  Respectful and wary of existing EU practices v  Symbolic of the new, genuine tri-national view v  Reassuring and comforting for all EU member states

The creation of this new federal republic within the EU will require a great deal of political courage from French, German and Italian citizens. National sovereignty for the three countries involved has been already dwindling over the last decades, due to on-going strong globalization processes. All democratic political parties will have to explain to voters the new deal: exchange the disappearing Illusion of national sovereignty against the growing reality of Federal sovereignty considered at world level. Once the Eurofederation of the Three has proven its success, It will become possible to extend it to other interested EU members. In no circumstances will the eurofederation process put into question the due building and workings of the EU institutions. On the contrary, The EuroFederation must always look for ways to strengthen EU integration and validate EU work.

STRASBOURG


The new EUROFEDERATION: sustainable growth and prosperity engine for Europe

Living standards differences in the 63 EuroFederation regions

Germany: 16 länder incl. 3 city-states France: 27 regions incl. 5 overseas Italy: 20 regions incl. 5 autonomous

Above German average Between French and German averages Between Italian and French averages below Italian average and above 20 k euros below 20 000 euros per annum per person in PPP

Source: Eurostat, mars 2013

WHY ITALY? POURQUOI L’ITALIE ? WARUM ITALIEN ? One of the six EU founding states (since 1958) Similar size to France and Germany Democratic way to surpass the old franco-german couple Low external debt (compaired to France) Innovation and industrial success of Italian SMEs Italy strengthens EuroFederation economy (rank 3 ww) Italy is a rich country (except for its Mezzogiorno ie south) France and Germany also have their own Mezzogiorno (Overseas and former east-germany Lander) EuroFederation is easier with 3 states (rather than 6 or more)


Population EUROFEDERATION base 2011 Germany 81'831'000 39% France 65'967'771 32% Italy 60'820'787 29%

total EuroFed 208'619'558 100%

POPULATION EUROZONE base 2011 Eurofedera/on 208'619'558 63% Austria 8'210'281 2% Belgium 10'839'905 3% Cyprus 1'056'776 0.3% Spain 46'951'532 14% Estonia 1'307'605 0.4% Finland 5'244'749 2% Greece 10'737'428 3% Ireland 4'156'119 1% Luxembourg 503'302 0.2% Malte 403'532 0.1% Netherlands 17'042'909 5% Portugal 10'317'192 3% Slovakia 5'455'407 2% Slovenia 2'007'711 1%

Total Eurozone 332'854'006 100%

41%

24%

12%

8%

4% 2%

9% EUROFEDERATION

OTHER Eurozone

UK

Poland

Romania

Sweden

Other EU28

Popula2on EU28 base 2011 EUROFEDERATION 208'619'558 41% OTHER Eurozone 124'234'448 25% UK 63'182'180 12% Poland 38'511'824 8% Romania 19'042'936 4% Sweden 9'059'651 2% Other EU28 43'315'632 9%

Total EU28 505'966'229 100%


Area EUROFEDERATION base 2011 Germany 357'021 29% France 552'000 46% Italy 301'230 25%

total EuroFed 1'210'251 100%

Area EUROZONE base 2011 Eurofedera/on 1'210'251 46% Austria 83'870 3% Belgium 30'528 1% Cyprus 9'250 0.4% Spain 505'580 19% Estonia 45'226 2% Finland 338'145 13% Greece 131'940 5% Ireland 70'280 3% Luxembourg 2'586 0.1% Malta 316 0.01% Netherlands 41'526 2% Portugal 92'042 3% Slovakia 48'845 2% Slovenia 20'273 1%

Total Eurozone 2'630'658 100%

Area EU28 EUROFEDERATION 1'298'545 29% OTHER Eurozone 1'420'407 32% UK 244'820 5% Poland 312'685 7% Romania 237'504 5% Sweden 449'964 10% Other EU28 512'227 11%

Total EU28 4'476'152 100%

29%

32%

6%

7%

5%

10%

11% EUROFEDERATION

OTHER Eurozone

UK

Poland

Romania

Sweden

Other EU28

km2


GDP EUROFEDERATION base 2011 Germany 3'601 42% France 2'773 32% Italy 2'194 26%

total EuroFed 8'568 100%

GDP EUROZONE base 2011 Eurofedera/on 8'568 65% Austria 418 3% Belgium 514 4% Cyprus 25 0.2% Spain 1'477 11% Estonia 22 0.2% Finland 263 2% Greece 290 2% Ireland 218 2% Luxembourg 59 0.5% Malta 9 0.1% Netherlands 836 6% Portugal 237 2% Slovakia 96 1% Slovenia 50 0.4%

Total Eurozone 13'082 100%

GDP EU28 base 2011 EUROFEDERATION 8'568 48% OTHER Eurozone 4'514 26% UK 2'445 14% Poland 515 3% Romania 190 1% Sweden 540 3% Other EU28 879 5%

Total EU28 17'651 100%

EUROFEDERATION 48%

OTHER Eurozone

26%

UK 14%

Poland 3%

Romania 1%

Sweden 3%

Other EU28 5%


New EU

with Turkey and Ukraine

33 states

(2023)

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2023 :!

Final EU enlar

gment !


The new EUROPEAN UNION u  2023 : final EU enlargement

u  Turkey and Ukraine new member states

u  Brussels becomes the only EU capital before 2028

u  Within the new EU, the EuroFederation acts as an institutional pillar and secures respect of founding EU values

u  The Eurozone creates a de facto good operational link between EuroFederation and EU institutions

u  The ECB will be able to issue Eurobonds and will receive mandate to sustain economic growth in addition to fight inflation

u  Strengthening of political, institutional, cultural and economic ties with Russia

u  Decisive re-launch of Euro-Mediterranean partnership

u  Active workgroups on defining the future CEM

u  New EU Budget is automatically set at 1% of the total GDP of the 33 member states


POPULATION new EU EuroFedera/on 208'619'558 33% Pays septentrionaux -‐ North 122'678'439 19% Mi\elEuropa 105'201'772 17% Pays méridionaux -‐ South 79'703'953 13% Turkey 74'924'269 12% Ukraine 45'515'596 7%

Total EU33 636'643'587 100%

EuroFédération 33%

Pays septentrionaux

19%

MittelEuropa 17%

Pays méridionaux

12%

Turquie 12%

Ukraine 7%

Northern countries Pays septentrionaux : Benelux Denmark Estonia Finland Ireland Latvia Lithuania Poland Sweden UK


AREA new EU EuroFedera/on 1'210'251 21% Pays septentrionaux-‐ North 1'395'958 23% Mi\elEuropa 1'042'521 18% Pays méridionaux-‐ South 861'178 15% Turkey 780'580 13% Ukraine 603'700 10%

Total EU33 5'894'188 100%

EURO FEDERATION

22%

Pays septentrionaux

23%

MittelEuropa 18%

Pays méridionaux

14%

Turquie 13%

Ukraine 10%

MittelEuropa : Austria Bulgaria Croatia Czech rep. Hungary Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia

km2


GDP new UE base 2011 EuroFedera/on 8'568 46% Pays septentrionaux -‐ North 5'302 28% Mi\elEuropa 1'743 9% Pays méridionaux -‐ South 2'098 11% Turkey 775 4% Ukraine 165 1%

Total UE33 18'651 100%

EuroFédération 46%

Pays septentrionaux

29%

MittelEuropa 9%

Pays méridionaux

11%

Turquie 4%

Ukraine 1%

Southern countries Pays méridionaux : Cyprus, Spain, Greece, Malta, Portugal


New EU

ready for CEM

(2028)

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BRUXELLES

2028 : Brussels!

only EU capit

al !


CEM: Confederation of Eurasia & The Mediterranean

(2030)

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Peace, Civilization & Sustainable growth


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BRUXELLES

Success of EU

is necessa

ry!

for CEM exist

ence !


The EU is part of the CEM. Respect and mutual support between CEM and EU institutions. The EU is the political and administrative pillar of the CEM. The CEM brings credibility and strength to the EU and to Russia in terms of military economical, and cultural powers.

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WIEN

ISTANBUL

KALININGRAD

u  1 and only one capital for the EUROFEDERATION : STRASBOURG u  1 and only one capital for the new EU : BRUSSELS u  3 distinct capitals for the CEM u  KALININGRAD : seat of Executive part for CEM government u  VIENNA : Administrative, Judiciary and Financial seat for CEM u  ISTANBUL : CEM Parliament seat


European Union 33 member states : EU 28 as of today and: + Macedonia + Montenegro + Serbia + Turkey + Ukraine

EuroFederation 3 republican states : + Germany + France + Italy

Confederation of Eurasia & the Mediterranean

55 countries : UE33 + Albania + Algeria + Armenia + Azerbaijan + Belorussia + Bosnia-Herzegovina + Cisjordania + Egypt + Gaza + Georgia + Greenland + Island + Israel + Kosovo-south + Lebanon + Libya + Morocco + Moldavia + Norway + Russia + Syria + Tunisia

Euro-Priority Partnership

Structured neighborhood policy with the 12 countries who share a common terrestrial border with the Confederation

21/36 © copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - [email protected] - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778

GDP CEM base 2011 New EU 18'651 84% Russia 1'858 8% Arc/c countries 501 2% Balkans/East/Transcaucasia 186 1% South Mediterranean 405 2% Proche-‐Orient Near-‐East 587 3%

Total CEM 22'187 100%

POPULATION CEM New EU 636'643'587 62% Russia 143'056'383 14% Arc/c countries 5'020'358 0.5% Balkans/East/Transcaucasia 39'755'042 4% South Mediterranean 85'674'507 8% Proche-‐Orient Near-‐East 119'870'166 12%

Total CEM 1'030'020'043 100%

Area CEM in km2 New EU 5'894'188 18% Russia 17'075'200 53% Arc/c countries 2'593'306 8% Balkans/East/Transcaucasia 512'864 2% South Mediterranean 5'015'741 16% Proche-‐Orient Near-‐East 1'223'866 4%

Total CEM 32'315'165 100%

Arc$c countries : Greenland, Island and Norway

Balkans/ East / Transcaucasia: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan Belarus, Bosnia-‐Herzegovina Georgia, Kosovo-‐south Moldavia

Proche-‐Orient: NEAR-‐EAST Egypt Cisjordania Israel Gaza Lebanon Syria


GDP COMPARAISON base 2011 EuroFedera/on 8'568 39%

Eurozone 13'082 59% New EU 18'651 84% South Mediterranean 405 2% Russia 1'858 8% Other CEM 1'274 6% Total CEM 22'187 100%

Popula2on COMPARAISON base 2011 EuroFedera/on 208'619'558 20%

Eurozone 332'854'006 32% New EU 636'643'587 62% South mediterranean 85'674'507 8% Russia 143'056'383 14% Other CEM 164'645'566 16% CEM 1'030'020'043 100%

Area COMPARAISON EuroFedera/on 1'298'545 4%

Eurozone 2'718'952 8% New EU 5'982'482 18% South Mediterranean 5'015'741 15% Russia 17'075'200 53% Other CEM 4'330'036 13% CEM 32'403'459 100%

Southern Med countries Sud méditerranéen : Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia


CEM after 2030 : first world power

12 neighbor-partners, 1 billion citizens, 2nd military power, 1st economy

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u  Balancing USA and China world influence u  CEM is made of 55 states è CEM is soft power

u  Area CEM : 32.4 million km2 USA : 9.9 million km2 China : 9.8 million km2

u  Population est. 2030 CEM : 1.1 billion hab.

USA: 0.5 billion hab. China : 1.4 billion hab

u  GDP base 2011 CEM : 22 187 billion $ USA : 14 991 billion $ China : 7 319 billion $

u  GDP est. 2040 CEM : 35 570 billion $ agr 1.7% USA : 34 298 billion $ agr 3.0% China : 31 741 billion $ agr 5.0%

u  After 2040 average growth rates will probably be similar for the three economies at around 2% per annum u  CEM budget = 0.5% of GDP for the 55 States


CEM after 2040 : +

EPP with the 12 neighbour-states from outside Europe

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EPP : European Priority Partnership : EuroPartenariat Prioritaire


Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Soudan Jordan Iraq Iran Kazakhstan Mongolia China North Korea

EPP : European Priority Partnership = CEM neighborhood policy

u  EPP Partner states are NOT part of Europe nor part of CEM

u  EPP consists in jointly funded co-projects negotiated one by one

u  EPP programs are pragmatic, ad-hoc and flexible

u  Each EPP project is financed 50% by the CEM (as a group) and 50% by the partner state (or states) directly involved in the project

u  Partner states are totally free and do not commit to anything except funding (or not) for each joint EPP project u  EPP is made of 12 very different partnerships

è EPP is NOT united or monolithic u  EPP budget has two sources:

0.1% of GDP for the 55 CEM States and funds allocated by some partner states on a 50-50 basis

à  22 billion $ per year (base 2011) on the CEM side à 44 billion maximum if all project budgets are met by Partner states u  In the CEM, projects and budgets are voted by the CEM parliament, managed by CEM executives based in Kaliningrad, and audited by CEM controllers based in Wien (Vienna, Austria)

u  Like all other CEM programs, choice of projects are made according to the 3 main criteria:

- Peace (e.g. exchange programs) - Civilization (e.g. cultural events) - Sustainable prosperity (e.g. green innovations)


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GDP COMPARAISON base 2011 EuroFedera/on 8'568 39% Eurozone 13'082 59% New EU 18'651 84% South Mediterranean 405 2% Russia 1'858 8% CEM 22'187 100%

CEM 22'187 31.7%

Canada 1736 USA 14991 Mexico 1153

total Bloc NAFTA 17880 25.5%

Australia 1379 India 1873 Brazil 2477 Indonesia 847 Japan 5867 Nigeria 244 South Africa 408 Saudi Arabia 577 Argen/na 446 total Naba+ cem+ epp+ big9 62'282 89% Rest of the world 7'718 11.0% World total 70000 100%

GDP EPP base 2011 in billion $ Mauritania 4 Mali 11 Niger 6 Chad 11 Soudan 64 Jordan 29 Iraq 115 Iran 338 Kazakhstan 188 Mongolia 9 China 7319 North Korea 3

total EPP 12 countries 8097 11.6%


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CEM: a 21st century view of the new ecopolitical world order

CEM: une vision contemporaine du nouvel ordre mondial


Source: USA National Intell. Comm. Dec, 2012 page 101 www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends

consensus view: Elements of Power of Leading Countries in 2030


CEM

EPP

NAFTA

Big 9

Reste Du Monde

100 % 100 % 100 %

Relative weight of CEM and EPP in the world : population, area and GDP

CEM : Confederation Eurasia Mediterranean : 55 states (EU 33 + Russia + 21 states) EPP: European Priority Partnership : 12 states ( China + Kazakhstan + 10 states) NAFTA : USA + Canada + Mexico Big 9 : Brazil + India + Japan + Australia + Indonesia+ Saudi Arabia + Argentina + Nigeria + South-Africa Rest of the world: 136 states (206 – 55 – 12 – 3 – 9 = 136 states as per UN definition)

14.7 24

31.7

22.6 17

11.6 6.6 16

25.5 25.9 21

20.2 30.2 22

11

% Pop % Superf % Pib


14.7 24

31.7

22.6 17

11.6 6.6

16 25.5 25.9

21

20.2 30.2

22 11

% Pop % Superf % Pib

37.3% 41%

45.7%

43.3%

CEM

EPP

NAFTA

Big 9

Rest of the world

Vers un monde multipolaire plus équilibré, cohérent et harmonieux

Towards a more balanced, coherent and harmonious multipolar world

37% 32.5%


Rest of the world

RUSSIA USA NAFTA

136 States

CEM

EPP INDIA CHINA

22%

24%

17% 21%

16%


Vers un monde multipolaire plus équilibré, cohérent et harmonieux

Towards a more balanced, coherent and harmonious multipolar world

2019 à 2023 à 2030 à 2040 à

En travaillant tous ensemble, ces perspectives deviennent réalisables.

Working together, we can achieve all this.

Let’s make it

happen !!


EURO FEDERATION

NEW EU CEM EPP

2019 à 2023 à 2030 à 2040 à

3 stable political bodies, working seamlessly together and completed with a clear, structured neighborhood policy In order to achieve the 3 objectives of Peace, Civilization and sustainable Prosperity


3 stable co-operating organisations with a clear neighborhood policy

Join us today ! Pour nous rejoindre

www.grande-europe.org

www.sdpe.org www.psde.fr Paix Civilisation Ecoprospérité

Nos cercles de réflexion!Our Thinktanks!

Le parti politique

The political party


Rest of the World

RUSSIA USA NAFTA

136 States

CEM

EPP INDIA CHINA

2013 à 2040 : towards a peaceful

NEW WORLD ORDER © copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - [email protected] - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778

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2013-->2040 a path to peace

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