2012 nand flash outlook - dramexchangeseminar.dramexchange.com/compuforum/2012/us...jun 11, 2012...

June 7th , 2012

Sean Yang

2012 NAND Flash Outlook -IN NAND WE TRUST-

http://www.trendforce.com/

June 7th ,2012 | ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Agenda

Overview for 2012 NAND Flash Market

NAND Flash Supply Side Status

NAND Flash Demand Side Status

Smartphone, Tablet and Ultrabook


Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun., 2012

Macro NAND Market Healthy and Balanced

After 2008 financial crisis, NAND Flash makers learned from the undisciplined supply and implement output strategy based on real market demand for profitability and operational stability.

NAND Flash market will be balanced and healthy in macro perspective.

8% -18%

15% 51%

16% 12% 22%

143%

133%

54%

80% 75%

71% 70%

151%

118% 69%

77% 68%

73% 71%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Sales growth (YoY) Bit supply growth (YoY) Bit demand growth (YoY)


-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F

Supply ( 16Gb M. Equiv.) Demand ( 16Gb M. Equiv.) Sufficiency Ratio

Unit: M 16Gb Equiv.

Warming Status from Mid-3Q, Helps to Drive the Market

NAND Flash market is highly correlated with the seasonality pattern of system products now, 2H’12 market will be triggered by new smartphone, tablet and ultrabook.

1H12 over-supply is a mix dynamics of softened demand from retail market as well as

the impact from macro-economy slowdown.



-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

DRAM market revnue NAND Flash market revenue

Unit: USD$ Million


Memory Paradigm is Shifting to NAND Flash-1

NAND Flash market revenue will likely surpass DRAM market revenue in 2012 given the strong demand from embedded storage of smartphone, tablet and Solid-State Drive.

Aggressive content growth also helps to boost the revenue growth.

2012 NAND Market Growth >14%


Source: Company, DRAMeXchange estimation, Jun., 2012

Memory Paradigm is Shifting to NAND Flash-2

Stable profitability and strong demand growth enables total memory solution providers dedicating more resource on NAND Flash.

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EDRAM CAPEX NAND Flash CAPEX

Unit: USD$ Million

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012ESamsung-DRAM Samsung-NAND

USD$ Million

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012ESK Hynix-DRAM SK Hynix-NAND

USD$ Million

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EMicron-DRAM Micron-NAND

USD$ Million


-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

Samsung-NAND SK Hynix-NAND Micron-NAND Toshiba-NAND

Stable Operating Margin on NAND Flash


Despite of continuous margin compression in recent quarters, NAND Flash makers still enjoy at least high single-digit operating margin through 3Q’09.

0%

25%

50%

Samsung-NAND Samsung-DRAM

-20%

0%

20%

40%

SK Hynix-NAND SK Hynix-DRAM

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Micron-NAND Micron-DRAM


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Unit:16Gb M. Equiv.

Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk SK Hynix IM Flash Others

Strong Bit Growth& Stable Market Share Diagram

Samsung and Toshiba/SanDisk steadily account 36%-37% share respectively, followed by 15% from IM Flash and nearly 10% from SK-Hynix, NAND Flash supply shows disciplined dynamics.

2007-2012 CAGR~81%



-

2,000

4,000

6,000

Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk IM Flash SK Hynix

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Unit: K pcs

Cautious Wafer Expansion Plans for The Future

SK Hynix fab M12 will commence mass production from 4Q12 IM Flash continues to cultivate the capacity from Singapore fab. Samsung new fab in China and Toshiba’s phase 2 schedule of Fab 5 will commence

mass production from 4Q13.


<5% y-y <10% y-y +20% y-y +15% y-y


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

128Gb

64Gb

32Gb

16Gb

8Gb

<8Gb

Density is Driven by Large Capacity Applications


Strong demand for large density storage helps to drive density evolution quicker than before after 2010.

20nm-class node product will be more cost-efficient for high density chip, results in

migration enhancement to 64Gb and 128Gb after 2Q12.



20nm-class Migration is Accelerated

Yield rate for 20nm-class migration takes time to tune up, NAND Flash makers aim for further improvement in 3Q12.

20nm-class eMMC and SSD will boost the production portion from 2H12.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F

90nm 6X & 7X nm 5Xnm 4Xnm 3Xnm 2xnm 20nm-Class 16nm-Class



Output Breakdown by Architecture

TLC has more than 80% penetration rate in memory card and USB drive market for better cost structure concern.

MLC still remains dominating status in embedded products.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F

SLC MLC TLC


-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Unit:16Gb M. Equiv.

Handset SSD Tablet PC PMP UFD DSC Others

Catalysts come from rising popularity of smartphone, tablet and SSD. NAND Flash demand turns to computing device from consumer products after 4Q’10.

Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun, 2012

NAND Flash Opportunity in System Products

2008-2013 Demand Growth CAGR~73% Smartphone

SSD

Tablet

Consumer Base Computing Base


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

NAND Flash in System Memory Cards&UFDSource: DRAMeXchange, Jun., 2012

Embedded Products are the Engine for Growth

SSD and eMMC unit consumption is 8-16 times more than UFD and memory card. Content and shipment growth from smartphone and ultrabook have re-shape the demand outlook.

Cloud storage service and embedded design is the structural impact on UFD and

memory card.


0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

201020112012E2013F2014F2015F

Unit: Million

NAND Flash Storage Fits All Mobile Devices

Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun, 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F

Smartphone Feature Phone Smartphone (%)

Unit: Million

Robust Smartphone Unit Growth

2012 smartphone volume: 660 million.

eMMC platform design eMMC is widely used in high-end

smartphone in 2011 and penetrate into mid-end product lines from 2012.


eMMC design is raising from the high requirement of multi-media and high performance device.


0

500

1,000

1,500

2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F

Smartphone US$100-200 Smartphone US$200-500

Smartphone>US$500

Unit: Million

2012 Smartphone Middle & Entry Models Surge

Premium Mid-End Low-End

Gross Margin 35-40% 25-30% 15-20%

BOM Cost

“Premium” smartphone is reaching saturated in developed countries.

“Mid/Low-End” smartphone contains good momentum in China, Asia-Pacific and rest emerging areas.

“Mid/Low-End” segment margin is still attractive to new smartphone makers.

Price

CAGR: 140%

CAGR: 12%

CAGR: 95%



eMMC is Penetrating into Wide Smartphone Portfolios


eMMC in High-Price models

Nokia Lumia 610

eMMC in Middle/Entry models

SEC Galaxy S2

ZTE Mimosa X

HTC One X

Sony Xperia S

SEC Galaxy Ace 2

Nokia Lumia 900

Blackberry Bold 9900

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

1Q12 2Q12E3Q12F4Q12F1Q13F2Q13F3Q13F4Q13F

Smartphone Shipment eMMC Adoption Rate (%)

Unit: Million



Media Tablet Market Continues to Grow

Windows8 is the key catalyst for media tablet growth from 2013. More than 97% media tablet models are designed in eMMC storage.

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

-

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F

Unit: '000

Media Tablet Volume iOS Android Windows Others


eMMC Density is Categorized for Consumer Usage


Overall 2012 eMMC market size is closed to 400mn units, smartphone consumes most. Each device has identical content per box given different usage and cost structure.

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q3F 3Q13F 4Q13FOther device w/ eMMC E-reader w/ eMMCTablet w/ eMMC Smartphone w/ eMMCSmartphone (GB) Tablet (GB)

Unit: Million


Ultrabook <13.3” Ultrabook >13.3”

18mm 21mm

Display Memory Storage Battery Enclosure

Ultrabook is the Key to SSD


SSD Implementation in Ultrabook

Ultra-Slim HDD SSD Cache

Attractive storage capacity Better Price/Cost structure

Ultra-Slim SSD

OR

mSATA SSD

Premium performance Extreme slim thickness

Premium Ultrabook

Value Ultrabook


$- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400

Valued

Premium

Macbook Air

BOM Cost OEM Margin Retail Margin

Diversified Ultrabook is Foreseeable for PC-OEMs

Diversified ultrabook product mix will be dressed by major PC-OEMs given the incentive for distinguish from Apple “Macbook Air” .

More than 80% of ultrabook models in 2012 will be designed in valued lineups.



Strong Momentum of ultrabook from 2H’12

Ultrabook ASP


Ultrabook is around 10% of total notebook in 2012.

Featured with affordable components

and cost-down on key parts, ultrabook ASP continue to drop to boost penetration rate.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015FNotebook Ultrabook Ultrabook (%)

Unit: K

$-

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

-

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F

Ultrabook Ultrabook ASP

Unit: K


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Unit: Million

SSD shipment SSD Consumption (%)Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun., 2012

SSD- Slim Form Factor Drives Growth

SSD is moving from retail market with regular form factor to mSATA with ultra-thin laptop.

SSD accounts ~15% of NAND Flash consumption in 2012 and will be up to above

20% in 2013.


$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F

Demand (1GB M equiv.) NAND Flash ASP (1GB equiv.)

Unit: 1GB Million equiv.

Reiterate Positive on Long-Term NAND Flash Market

2008-2013 Consumption CAGR~73%

Catalysts for NAND Flash market growth include diversified and innovative applications as well as technology evolution. NAND Flash is viewed as the superior storage for devices.



Thank You DRAM team Ken Kuo [email protected] Avril Wu [email protected] Wilson Miao [email protected] Lavender Shih [email protected]

NAND Flash team Wayne Chen [email protected] Sean Yang [email protected] Alan Chen [email protected] Esther Lo [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]








2012 nand flash outlook - dramexchangeseminar.dramexchange.com/compuforum/2012/us...jun 11, 2012...

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