2012-10 nozurbina-tomorrowwasyesterday-distri
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
1/78
Tomorrow Was Yesterday
Mastering the Future of ContentCreation
Noz Urbina
Mekon Ltd
@nozurbina
http://lessworkmoreflow.blogspot.com
(First delivered at the LavaCon Conference, Portland,OR)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
2/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Me
Content strategist
Consultant/trainer
Congility Events
ChairAuthor
Futurist
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
3/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Me
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
4/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
We see past time in a
telescope and presenttime in a microscope.
Hence the apparent
enormities of the present. Victor Hugo
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
5/78
-6,000 to 13billion Years*
Begin
Now
Our natural inclination is to see
time as a spectrum, with thebeginning on one end andourselves on the other.
Whenever now is, its easy to
see that as the most advancedpoint in time.
Especially in tough economic
times, we prefer to focus onthe next year, or even nextquarter. It can even befrustrating or unnerving to thinkmore than 5 years ahead.
* Depending onyour point of view...
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
6/78
Begin
Now
-6,000 to13 billion
Years
In this session were going to
try to get over ourselves andremember that were always
just at one point on acontinuum, with as much timeand change ahead of us as
behind.
But thats not reality.
* Depending onyour point of view...
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
7/78
Lets do the Time Warp Again
Inspirations for this session
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
8/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
MilestoneIve reached anage where
young peoplelook ridiculous.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
9/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Milestone
And I used tolook like this...
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
10/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Colossus programmable computer
1944
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
11/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
19
76
No
w
Super computers in our pockets
Smartphones 1ghzTablets 2ghz
i.e. 13-26 x faster
1/15,000th the price
(unadjusted)
Cray 1 Supercomputer80mhz
Sold over 80 units
$5-8 million
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
12/78
Super computers in our pockets
Cray's 2011 Jaguar, $104 million224,256 processors
19
76
No
w
Quantum computing shouldallow history to repeat
Big hopes for next 5-10
years
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
13/78
~310BCE
Ionian Greeks begin non-Mythological interpretations ofnatural phenomenon
Widely accepted for a fewcenturies
Aristarchus of Miletuscalculates that the Sun is far largerthan the Earth
Posits that the Earth revolves
around the sun and that stars arejust other distant suns
Aristotle, the Catholic Church andinvading Persia bury it for nearly
2000 years 1632
Galileo given lifeunder housearrest
19
92
Pope apologizes
Thought: Scientists arealways doing stuff behind thescenes that is totally beyondwhat the everyday person canconceive
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
14/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Casa de PilatosSevilla, Spain(16th century)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
15/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Casa de PilatosSevilla, Spain(16th century)
Casa Pilatos is 500years old in Spain.
The fireplace is French,the antiques are fromGreece, the vases fromChina.
Globalisation isnt new;
its just new for poorpeople.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
16/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Casa de PilatosSevilla, Spain(16th century)
To win the contract for themosaics, the tile makers
needed to commit todeliver 2000 tiles a day.
Sounds like the demands
on modern contentteams...
To achieve this, theyadapted a recenttechnology from anotherarea: the printing press.By printing tiles withmachines, they met the
deadline.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
17/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Casa de PilatosSevilla, Spain(16th century)
Sevilla gets very, very hot(~110f/~52c), and is very
humid.
The wall tiles arefunctional. The stone
leeches humidity from theair. More carving meansmore surface area.
But the message is: If Imgoing to have tech in mylife, please make it pretty!
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
18/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Globalisation.
Automation andadaptation of recenttechnologies andprinciples from variousareas.
Making technology
human friendly andpretty.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
19/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Remind you ofanything?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
20/78
The Future is Here...
...its just not widely distributedWilliam Gibson, Author of Neuromancer
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
21/78
Other
The Jetsons 1962-63
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
22/78
Roomba, 2002
Looj, 2007
Friendly Robotics RoboMower,1998
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
23/78
Thunderball, 1965
Jet Pack Intl, 2007
Yves RossysJetMan, 2010
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
24/78
Food replicator
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
25/78
Today: Were 3Dprinting food andobjects fromdownloadablemodels and specs.
Tomorrow:Cakes just likemy grandmaused todownload?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
26/78
Wake Forest Institute forRegenerative Medicine are alreadysaving lives with 3D printed human
organs.
They hope to take the process real-time and print flesh over woundswith a stem-cell scanner / printercombination.
http://bit.ly/QOZ5gu http://bit.ly/QOZf7C
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
27/78
Goldfinger, 1964
Knight Rider, 1982Total Recall,1990
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
28/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
29/78
Over 80% of all USAcommunities relyexclusively on trucksto deliver their:
FuelClothingMedicine
Consumer goods
If you bought it, a truck brought it
69% of commercial freight in the USA
The trucking industry employs 10 million
people in the USA. But for how much longer?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
30/78
Terminator, 1984
Data overlay vision
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
31/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Maps are only asgood as their dataoverlays
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
32/78
Text toSpeech
BMW Augmented
Reality mechanicsglasses
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
33/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Google Glass
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
34/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
35/78
Iron Man, 1963(Movie 2008)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
36/78
Cyberdyne SystemsHAL (Hybrid Assistive Limb)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
37/78
Available for domesticrental now in Japan!
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
38/78
Life imitates art imitating life
Content consumption
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
39/78
Apple Newton, 1993
The first patent for an
electronic writingtablet was in 1888
The iPadlaunched April,
2010
(30 months ago)
Star Trek, 1970s
Star Trek NG, 1990shttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tablet_computers
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
40/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
We had a lot of warning thatthe iPad was coming.
Still, many organisationsstruggled to react when Applefound the right combination offunctionality, maturity andprice.
In 12-24 months our industrywas transformed.
Definitelynot for the lasttime.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
41/78
Minority Report, 2002
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
42/78
Minority Report, 2002
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
43/78
You have aninterface that hasno interface. Youoperate the worldas you operate thereal world (withyour hands).
John Underkoffler,MIT
MIT, 1995
The designers can rotate the sun using the clock tool and addmaterial reflections to judge both glare and shadows.
In 2002, after seeing this work, the Minority Report production leadsolicited MITs help with the movies UI design concepts. He said:
Design it like an R&D effort (as if it were going to production).
http://bit.ly/QNIATy[Video]
Here we see anMIT urban
planning toolthat allowspositioning ofbuildings on alandscape. It
mixesprojection withphysical modelson a table top.
http://bit.ly/QNIATyhttp://bit.ly/QNIATy -
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
44/78
[Kinect] will feel like Minority Report,"promises Pete Thompson, Microsoft, 2007
http://bit.ly/PhOD4f
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
45/78
Leap Motion, EstimatedLaunch Feb 2013
200 timesthe
resolutionof theKinectSystem.Costs $70
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
46/78
http://bit.ly/QNIATy
John Underkoffler, MIT, 2010
[Video]
Full circle: from MIT to Minority Report, to Kinect and Leap Motion and finally,Underkofllershows MITs new Minority Report-like UI prototype:
Content can move fluidly between machines on a network.
This is content sharing as it should be.
http://bit.ly/QNIATyhttp://bit.ly/QNIATy -
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
47/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
48/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
In short: dont cry sci-fi.
Big things are (always)coming: theyre in the works,or theyre already here, justnot widely distributed.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
49/78
Perspective Shift
All media work us over completely... theyleave no part of us untouched, unaffected,
unaltered.Marshal McLuhan, Media is the Massage, 1960
(coined the term global village)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
50/78
Raphael ,1510Don Yang, 950s
Until 1000 years ago, as a species,
our minds couldnt translate 3D onto
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
51/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
52/78
His cubist period (1909-1912) was an effort to showthe passage of time, and various three-dimensionalperspectives, simultaneously, in a static 2D image.
In parallel, Albert Einstein was working on his theoriesof relativity of space and time (1907-1915).
Picasso adds the 3rd and 4th dimensions to the 2Dcanvas.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
53/78
Cubism was not only a revolution in pictorial space, buta revolution in our understanding of pictorial space.
This was in all probability linked to the fact that physicswas simultaneously destroying our three-dimensional
space-time perception.
Pierre Daix, writer and friend of Picasso
Picasso adds the 3rd and 4th dimensions to the 2Dcanvas.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
54/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Content strategistsand physicistsmust look at
seemingly infinitecomplexity, anddiscover thesensible evensimple systems,rules and patterns.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
55/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
For all of human history, ourbrains conceived of content
in 2D. Thats all weve
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
56/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Today we are on the cusp ofanother fundamental, global
shift in how humans perceivecontent.
Instead of being flat, we must
be able to drill down, transform,and re-structure atomic unitsof content for different users,contexts and formats.
Our sense of content in spaceand time is changing.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
57/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Authored
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
58/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Authored
Database
Extract?
SourceCodeRepository
Regardless of how it wascreated, all modern content
must work like a database.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
59/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
We need a new, fundamental
theory of content dynamics.
If we envision content in 3D, even4D*, doing our jobs, and
explaining the nature andimportance of our jobs, canbecome easier.
All our major buzzwords andambitions can be explained inreference to thinking of content inmultiple dimensions.
* The 4th dimension is time.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
60/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Responsive Design
Adaptive ContentFiltering & Conditions
Dynamic Delivery
Curation
Progressive
Disclosure
Taxonomy-
DrivenNavigation
(Dynamic )Personalisation Search
Mashups
Aggregation
Embedded UA
Reuse
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
61/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Todays children(tomorrows consumers)
are growing up withmultidimensional content.
Its normal to them.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
62/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
The illiterate of the 21st centurywill not be those who cannot
read or write; they will be thosewho cannot learn, unlearn, and
relearn.Alvin Toffler
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
63/78
Weird Mark-upPeople dont like XML. Its ugly and
foreign.
Can you pull it apart and rebuild it?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
64/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Can you pull it apart, and rebuild it?
Original Flow
New
Scenario
New
Audience
New
Platform
Does your content have thenecessary agility?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
65/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Simple Slashes
88
Weird Mark-up (West)
1 2 3 4 5
Simple and intuitive doesnt
always scale. Natural doesnt
mean good.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
66/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
67/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Tweetable
A modern content experience is not
authored.
It is designed.
(like a product)
(with a product)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
68/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Allows cross-devicecontinuous reading.
Learns your readingspeed.
X-ray interfaces withIMDB for interactive
data overlays inmovies.
Kindle Fire HD
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
69/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
70/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
AndyVision is an autonomous retail assistant that works at CarnegieMellon University shop.
He knows whats in stock, on sale, and on the shelves. He lets staff
know when customers move items out of place.
You can interact with his touch-screen at the door.
Are you and your content ready for Andy and his screen?
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
71/78
A New Hope
The empires of the future are theempires of the mind.
Winston Churchill
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
72/78
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
73/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Nozs Inverse Constant ofKnowledge:
The more you know aboutsomething the less effective youare at communicating it to new
people.
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
74/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
Our business is the transfer of knowledge.
I believe communications is the mostimportant industry in the world. We are notbeing commoditized, we are becomingmore vital than ever.
We are the horizontal that bind togetherorganisations and facilitate industrycollaboration, technical development andcommerce.
The miracles of modern technology aremade by fraternities of companiesallexchanging content around the world.
Full circle
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
75/78
The Apple iPad is assembled by Foxconn
Teardown reports indicate parts and suppliers include:
~ Apple A4, A5 and A5X SoC: Samsung (based on ARM processors)
~ NAND flash RAM chips: Toshiba and Samsung
~ Touch-screen chips: Broadcom
~ IPS Display (1st & 2nd Gen): LG Display~ IPS Display (3rd Gen) : Samsung
~ Touch panels: Wintek
~ Case: Catcher Technologies
~ LCD drivers: Novatek Microelectronics
~ Batteries: 60% are made in Taiwan by Simplo Technology, 40% byDynapack International
~ Accelerometer: STMicroelectronics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPad#Manufacture
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
76/78
@nozurbina
#lavacon
But much more importantly
4 2
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
77/78
1974
2012
6 million dollar man(bionic restoration)
-
7/31/2019 2012-10 NozUrbina-TomorrowWasYesterday-distri
78/78
@nozurbina
The future is like heaven,everyone exalts it, but no
one wants to go therenow. James A. Baldwin
[email protected]@nozurbinahttp://lessworkmoreflow.blogspot.com
THANK YOU!