Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Victor van Rij

Ministry of education, culture and science Netherlands

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

• Horizon scanning experience

• The importance of wilds cards and high impact issues as shakers and shapers of the future

• Combination of terminologies of foresight and horizonscanning with terminologies of the political discourse analysis(credentials to Martijn van der Steen)

• Some implications on the future scanning practice

presentation

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

• Emerging issue Is a set of logically connected topics , events and or trends

that create a coherent story for the political discourse or decision makers (National horizon scans – UK, Netherlands , Singapore, OECD)

• Wild card Is an event or cascade of events (Petersen, Taleb,

Steinmuller) with low probability but high impact, with a surprising character, changing the view on things dramatically

Emerging issues and wild cards

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Discourse and decision makingPolitical discourse – decision making• Struggle of narratives and ideas (van Dijk, Chilton et al, van

der Steen)

Narratives (in political discourse)• Storylines sketching real time developments and

occurring/expected consequences (impact) that according to the storyteller need action to alter the consequences (impact) in a direction that is “desired” by the storyteller.

Future narrative (in political discourse)• Storylines sketching (future) developments and projected

(potential) consequences (impact) that according to the storyteller need action to alter the consequences in a direction that is desired by the storyteller.

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Shakers (referring to what already happened)• “Emerging issues” with high impact that are taken up in the

discourse (climate change, ageing , infectious ww diseases, migration)

• Wild cards that recently happened and are influencing the discourse (Berlin wall, 9-11,Financial crisis, JapanTsunami-Fukushima)

Shapers (referring to what could happen)• Proposed “emerging issues” with high impact that could be

taken up in the discourse (growing biological infertility of humans)

• Proposed (imagined) “wild cards” that could happen (Chinese revolution,)

Shakers and shapers

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

strength of shaking narratives

• High impact

• Touching important interest and or values

• Evoking emotions

• Touching present power relationships (targets groups)

• Altering the decision makers view on things (sometimes radically)

• Giving clear (implicit or explicit) handles (for action)

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

strength of shaking narratives

Berlin Wall 1989 Iceland volcano 2010

11 September 2001

The internet

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

strength of shaping narratives• Clear communication (shape , visuals, language)

• Plausible, likelihood (evidence – logic – mathematic probability , authority) , clear communication again

• Described High impact

• Referring to important interests and or values

• Referring to or evoking emotions

• Connected to power/relationship development (targets groups)

• Giving clear (implicit or explicit) handles (for action)

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Strong shaping narratives

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Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Searching or creating The shaping narratives

• National horizonscans (DK-searching for emerging issues, NL,UK searching and creating issues and wild cards)

• SESTI (Searching (issue –centered scan) and creating (exploratory scan) emerging issues)

• I-Know (Mainly creating wild cards)

• FAR horizon (Creating wild cards)

• INFU (Creating wild cards)

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Searching or creating The shaping narratives

Searching:

• To find out what may happen with some plausibility (to support resilience of policy to find new directions)

• Observation of who is trying to influence for what reasons• But: it may be very tempting to combine observed strong

cards to create even stronger ones

Creating

• Creating: Testing developing resilience • Creating new (policy) options

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Human and natural causesHuman causes:• Early warning: Human signals = communication (facts,

interpretation, intentions, interests, emotions, translation)• Deliberate and undeliberate human caused (issues-events),

self denying self fulfilling aspect• Resilience may include prevention, counter measures,

supporting measures

Natural causes: • Early warning: Physical signals (laws of nature)• Interpretation translation to impact (again human

communication - narrative)• Resilience means precautionary (defence) measures,

mitigation, adaptation

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

• In scanning it is important to distinguish between natural and human caused issues and wild cards, since they recquire different methodological approaches

• Overstressing the “hard”’ evidence may distort the scan view on those issues or wild cards that are deliberately human caused

• Interests, path dependencies, emotions and connections to the present situation may be more important than the so called “scientific or hard” factual information on an issue/wild card

• More research is needed to the question: What constitutes the strength of the deliberately human caused issues and wild cards

Recommendations (1)

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

• More Historical knowledge and research to proven strong issues and wild cards in the past

• More discourse analytic work, how is the implicit and explicit future reference used in political debate and decision making

• How can this be related to foresight/horizon scanning

• Sociological and mass psychological knowledge on the main question, how narratives influence public opinion and decisionmakers? (crowd influencing knowledge)

Recommendations (2)

[Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers]

• On past wild cards

• How did they evolve (cascades, coincidence, actor behaviour)

• In what context did they evolve

• Looking back to potential weak signals

• Thinking on interventions –modelling their outcome

• At the end always the questions: do we need crisis or do we need to prevent crisis

• Emergency scenario’s

Need for more insight

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Past Present Future

Emerging issue BB

= Primary signal (full or partial future issue or wild card description)

= Affirmative Secondary signal

= Not affirmative Secondary signal

= Expected affirmative signal not showing up

= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of

Secondary signals to watch for)

The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning

WCC

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

(Deliberately) Human caused events

• Who initiates, who objects?

• Which Emotional charge

• Communication (language , visuals)

• Emotional charge (fear, hope)

• Context

• Social/political phenomena (will, capacities etc)

Early warning Human causes

Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers

Natural caused events• Preparedness prevention/mitigation/adaptation. Limiting the

damages , taking the challenge as opportunity. (Shock proof building, Climate adapted agriculture)

Human caused events• Emotional charge• Interests• Context• Self fulfilling self denying aspect(Choice challenges: reducing poverty? search for immortality?)

Resilience

[Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers]

Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio-

economic Sciences and Humanities

Primary signal & secondary signals

SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011

11

[Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers]

Emerging issue A

Emerging issue B

Hype issue C

Past Present Future

B

C

A

WC

ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING

[Emerging issues and wild cards as future shapers and shakers]

• On past wild cards

• How did they evolve (cascades, coincidence, actor behaviour)

• In what context did they evolve

• Looking back to potential weak signals

• Thinking on interventions –modelling their outcome

• Do we need crisis or do we need to prevent crisis

• Emergency scenario’s

Need for more insight

Past Present Future

Emerging issue BB

= Primary signal (full or partial future issue description)

= Affirmative Secondary signal

= Not affirmative Secondary signal

= Expected affirmative signal not showing up

= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of

Secondary signals to watch for)

The principles of Issue Centered Scanning

1. Described impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain)2. Desirability (which values are addressed in the impact description, what is the narrator's point of view)3. Factual basis (reference to reliable and/or biased sources)4. Plausible storyline5. Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy-makers)6. Interests at stake (does the storyline involve strong conflicts or commonalities in interests)7. Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects)8. Changeability (can the story or its impact be altered by human action - how does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels)