2011-12 election cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 duma 2004 president 2007 duma 2008...

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2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath

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Page 1: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

2011-12 Election Cycle: content and

aftermath

Page 2: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

63,60% 17,18%

7,98%

3,85%

2012 Presidential Elections

6,22%

Putin

Prokhorov

Mironov

Zyuganov

Zhirinovsky

Page 3: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

The Results

Page 4: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Russian Electoral System

Regional election committee

Territorial election committee

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMITTEE

Polling stations

Page 5: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Falsifications: how was it possible to steal votes?

what protesters were unhappy about?

A bit of theory:

Technology #1: Machinations with reports

Technology #2: Phantom voters („dead souls‟)

Technology #3: Phantom polling stations

Technology #4: „Carousels‟ and „double-voting‟

Technology #5: Non-transparent voting

Technology #6: Throwing-in

Page 6: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Official results from a Territorial Election Committee: United Russia Party – 45.5%

Data from the Record of the Polling Station Committee: United Russia – 28.7%

FRAUD (!!!)

Page 7: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Bolotnaya Square, 100-130 thousands people

Luzhniki, 100-130 thousands people

Sergey Udaltsov, the leader of the Left front

Alexey Navalny, the leader of the opposition

Page 8: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

“Carousel”

Specific method of bribery of voters. Technology of the classical carousel: 1. A voter receives already marked bulletin

outside the polling station.

2. He enters the station, registers with the committee official.

3. Puts the ballot he was given outside the station.

4. „Sells‟ blank bulletin to the „team leader‟.

5. The new bulletin is being marked and given to the next participant.

Page 9: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

„Sending off‟ the observers

Observers – official members of polling station committees with the right for deliberative vote.

Observers from undesirable candidates may complicate the work of the committees and thus are sometimes being refused registration or removed for a “valid” reason.

Page 10: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Throwing-in of the bulletins

The use of this technology is versatile:

1. A “voter” puts several bulletins.

2. Frauds with lists of voters (dead souls).

3. Bulletins are put in the ballot boxes prior to the voting.

NB. To avoid potential accusations in the recent elections were used transparent ballot boxes.

Page 11: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Mass-voting using additional voters lists

Workers of organizations with persistent production cycle can vote “at the place of work”.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President

Deallocation votes

Page 12: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

and temporary polling stations

1) Putin – 907 (89%)

2) Zyuganov – 45

3) Zhirinovskiy – 28

Page 13: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Other, potentially fraudulent forms of election

1) Early voting (used when a voter is not able to cast his vote on a designated day).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President

Early votes

Page 14: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

2) At home voting.

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President

'At home' votes

Page 15: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations
Page 16: 2011-12 Election Cycle: content and aftermath€¦ · 2003 Duma 2004 President 2007 Duma 2008 President 2011 Duma 2012 President Deallocation votes . and temporary polling stations

Did Putin Win?

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Dec. 10 Dec. 17 Dec. 24 Jan. 07 Jan. 14 Jan-21 Jan. 28 Feb. 04 Feb. 11 Feb. 18

Putin

Zyuganov

Zhirinovskiy

Mironov

Prokhorov