1

2010 OZONE SEASON SUMMARY

March 2, 2011 MEDEP Monitoring Meeting

Tom Downs, CCMChief Meteorologist

Maine DEP-BAQ17 State House Station

Augusta, ME 04333-0017

TEL: 207-287-7026E-MAIL: tom.downs@maine.gov

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OZONE STANDARDS

• 1997 8-hour NAAQS– 84 ppb Primary = secondary– Entire state is designated ATTAINMENT with SIP maintenance

plans in place– Current SIP designations are only for the 1997 NAAQS

• 2008 8-hour NAAQS– 75 ppb Primary = secondary– EPA does not plan to designate due to the ozone NAAQS

reconsideration.

• 2011 8-hour NAAQS– ????July 31, 2011???

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2010 STATE OZONE EXCEEDANCE DAYS SUMMARY BY DATE

(Parts Per Million)

FINAL QA'd DATA (10/26/10 (TD))

DATE MONITORING SITEMAXIMUM 8-HR

AVERAGE

# 8-hour periods (> 0.075)

8-hr period starting hour(s) (EST)

Maximum Starting Hour(s) (EST)

5/1/2010 Cadillac Mt 0.076 1 2300 2300

5/2/2010 Cadillac Mt 0.089 20 0000-1900 1500

7/8/2010 Gardiner 0.079 3 0900-1100 1000

7/17/2010 Port Clyde 0.076 2 1400-1500 1400

7/28/2010 Cape Elizabeth 0.080 4 1000-1300 1200

  Kennebunkport 0.076 2 1100-1200 1100

9/1/2010 McFarland Hill 0.077 4 1900-2200 2100

  Kennebunkport 0.078 3 1200-1400 1300

9/2/2010 Cape Elizabeth 0.096 9 0900-1700 1200

  Kennebunkport 0.095 9 0900-1700 1200

  Port Clyde 0.092 10 1000-1900 1300-1400

  McFarland Hill 0.087 9 1400-2200 1900

  Cadillac Mt 0.079 5 1800-2200 2000

  Jonesport 0.078 3 1400-1600 1500

9/3/2010 Cadillac Mt 0.081 3 0500-0800 0700

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Exceedance day Analysis Tools

• HYSPLIT Trajectory analysis (using AIRNOW TECH)– 24-hr back trajectory starting at 10, 250, 500 and

1000m levels– Only for monitors with 8-hr concentrations > 70 ppb

• AIRNOW TECH Observations (only preliminary data available)

• NOAA-EPA CMAQ model (previous day forecast)

• Barons 45-km MAQSIP model (previous day forecast)

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NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

May 1, 2010: Highest 1-hr concentration at Cadillac Mt was 56 ppb (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [5/2 0300-0600 EST] )

BARONS MAQSIP forecast

5/1 2300 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

250m (black lines) 500m (gray lines)

1000m (light gray lines

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

1100 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -10m (black lines –SHAP)

250m (black lines-CAD gray lines-SHAP) 500m (gray lines-CAD)

May 2, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [1300-1700 EST] ) OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

July 5, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [1600-1800 EST] ) OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

1300 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines) 250m (gray lines)

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NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

BARONS MAQSIP forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

1000 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines) 250m (gray lines)

1000m (light gray lines)

July 8, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [1100-1700 EST] )

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

July 17, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [1300-1700 EST] )

1200 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines) 250m (gray lines)

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

July 28, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [SW & Mid-Coast-1400EST][Shapleigh & West Buxton-2000 EST] )

1300 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines) 250m (gray lines)

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NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

BARONS MAQSIP forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

September 1, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [SW-Coast-1600EST][Port Clyde-2000EST][Acadia NP 2300EST] )

1500 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines)250m (gray lines-(ANP black lines))

500m (gray lines-ANP)

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

September 2, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [SWCoast-1700EST][Bowdoinham & Port Clyde-1900EST][Acadia NP & Jonesport

2100EST] ) – Hurricane moving up the coast

1400 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

10m (black lines)250m (gray lines-(ANP black lines))

500m (gray lines-ANP)

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BARONS MAQSIP forecast

NOAA-EPA CMAQ forecast

12Z and 00Z 850mb and surface maps

OBSERVED AQI (75 ppb NAAQS)

September 3, 2010: (Trajectories only for hours > 70 ppb [1000-1300 EST] )

0700 EST 8-hr Ozone concentrations 24-hr back trajectories -

250m (black lines) 500m (gray lines)

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Ozone Season Trends

8-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATION TRENDS IN MAINE (7-day running average of daily maximum 8-hr Ozone concentrations)

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

0.050

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

0.080

0.085

0.090

0.095

0.100

0.105

0.110

0.115

0.120

0.125

3/1

3/8

3/15

3/22

3/29 4/5

4/12

4/19

4/26 5/3

5/10

5/17

5/24

5/31 6/7

6/14

6/21

6/28 7/5

7/12

7/19

7/26 8/2

8/9

8/16

8/23

8/30 9/6

9/13

9/20

9/27

10/4

10/1

1

10/1

8

10/2

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DATE

AIR

QU

AL

ITY

IN

DE

X D

UE

OZ

ON

E

1983-1989 1990-1996 1997-2003 2004-2010

Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 10/1/2010/2009

No change early in the Season

-Pinenes?

-Climate change?

Significant decrease during the peak ozone season months

-NOx SIP call controls

-Other local and regional NOx and VOC controls

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OTR High Ozone Day TRENDS (2010 preliminary data)

52

78

71

37

54

67

3430

48

36

47

26

11

32

84

106 105

66

8792

6057

88

66

80

57

34

68

0.153

0.1310.135 0.133 0.133

0.137

0.130

0.123 0.121

0.1300.125

0.1120.109

0.115

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

# D

ays

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

PP

M

# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr

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MAINE High Ozone Day TRENDS (2010 preliminary data)

11 1110

3

15

17

5

1

4

2

8

0

2 2

16

2221

5

24

28

14

11

14

11

14

43

8

0.1190.116

0.114

0.097

0.111

0.121

0.110

0.1000.102

0.092

0.099

0.080

0.087

0.096

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

# D

ays

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

PP

M

# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr

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MAINE High Ozone Day TRENDS (2010 preliminary data)

33

48

38

22

44

41

30

25

2829

28

18

10

13

23

37

27

15

35

31

22

14

23

19 19

10

79

02468

101214161820222426283032343638404244464850

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

# D

ays

# days > 64 ppb # days > 69 ppb

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Site 2007-09 2008-10 2008 2009 2010

Cadillac Mt 78 74 74 74 76McFarland Hill 73 69 64 73 70Port Clyde 70 66 61 69 70

Kennebunkport 74 72 73 72 72Cape Elizabeth 74 70 69 70 72Durham 72 65 70 67 58West Buxton 68 60 61 62 58Bowdoinham *** 63 65 63 61Portland *** 60 61 59 60

Gardiner 71 64 68 66 59Jonesport 65 60 58 61 61Holden 64 59 62 57 59North Lovell 63 56 59 57 54Penobscot Nation 62 59 66 59 54Howland 59 55 58 55 53Ashland 58 54 56 55 53Sipayak 56 55 56 57 53Micmac 55 53 54 54 51Shapleigh *** *** *** 63 66

MIDCOAST REGION

SOUTHWEST COAST

OTHER AREAS

8-hr 4th HIGH (ppb)DESIGN VALUES (ppb)

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8-HOUR OZONE DESIGN VALUE TRENDS FOR CRITICAL SITES IN AND BORDERING MAINE

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

0.080

0.085

0.090

0.095

0.100

0.105

0.110

0.115

0.120

1983

-85

1984

-86

1985

-87

1986

-88

1987

-89

1988

-90

1989

-91

1990

-92

1991

-93

1992

-94

1993

-95

1994

-96

1995

-97

1996

-98

1997

-99

1998

-00

1999

-01

2000

-02

2001

-03

2002

-04

2003

-05

2004

-06

2005

-07

2006

-08

2007

-09

2008

-10

3-YEAR PERIOD

8-H

R O

ZO

NE

DE

SIG

N V

AL

UE

(p

pm

)

Cadillac Port Clyde McFarland Hill Kennebunkport Kittery

Portsmouth, NH Rye, NH Cape Elizabeth West Buxton Durham

Gardiner NAAQS Shapliegh

EPA PROPOSED RANGE FOR THE PRIMARY 8-HOUR OZONE NAAQS THAT WILL BE PROMULGATED ON July 31, 2011???

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Summary

• Meteorological Conditions were more conducive to ozone formation during the 2010 ozone season than the previous two seasons

• All monitoring sites in Maine are attaining the current 75 ppb 8-hour Ozone NAAQS

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February 17, 2011

2:00 PM Ozone concentrations

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N/A-MAINTENANCE AREA SITES

• Cadillac Mt. Summit (PAMS)

•Kennebunkport

•Cape Elizabeth (PAMS)

•McFarland Hill

•Durham

•Gardiner

•Port Clyde

•West Buxton

•Shapleigh

•Bowdoinham

OZONE MAPPING & RURAL SITES

•Jonesport

•Holden

•North Lovell

EPA CASTNET SITES

•Howland

•Ashland

TRIBAL SITES

•Indian Island (Penobscot Nation)

•Presque Isle (MicMac)

•Sipayik (Passamaquoddy)

HEALTH STUDY SITE

•Portland

High elevation site for transport study and

Secondary NAAQS?

Best Downwind of Portland coastal site?

2011