2009+: 10 trends: predictions & provocations -- richard watson

8/14/2019 2009+: 10 Trends: Predictions & Provocations -- Richard Watson

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ConneCtivity

LoCaLisation

GLobaLisation

Cooperation

infLation

Happiness

Debt

DefLation


2/14

Introduction 5

Trendblend2009+ 6-7

TheTenTrends 8-18

100Wordstodescribe2009 19

Thingsthataresupposedtobedead 20-21

TheWorldinNumbers 22-23

PastTrends 24

3www.nowandnext.com2 www.nowandnext.com

Collective fear stimulates herd instinct,

and tends to produce ferocity toward

those who are not regarded

as members of the herd.

BertrandRussell


3/14

5www.nowandnext.com4 www.nowandnext.com

Welcome to 2009. This report is an annual review of the year ahead andis generally fairly easy to put together. Not this year. The problem hasbeen events. More specifically, the speed at which things continue to change.Impossible really is nothing these days.

Last year two key themes highlighted in the introduction were the questionof who would inherit the US economy (an economy balanced on a knifeedge) and the Beijing Olympics (a coming out party for what willone day be the largest and most powerful nation on earth Maybe).This year two of the biggest questions are whether or not Barack Obamacan rebuild Americas shattered economy and reputation worldwide and whether

or not China will follow America into the economic twilight zone.

One major trend that flows from all this uncertainty is anxiety, which will in turndrive an interest in safety, security and permanence. People are no longer inthe mood to experiment and we can therefore expect the return of simplicity,no-frills, back to basics, seriousness, saving and fiscal conservatism.

The other thought that flows from current events is the degree to whichevents follow historical or predictable patterns. One of the main reasons thatthe world is in the mess it is today is that some people forgot about cycles.People borrowed heavily to purchase what they wanted or used paper profits

created by real estate to support lifestyles that were unsustainable,particularly if they had an eye on economic cycles or the performance ofreal estate over a long enough period. Therefore, perhaps 2009 will be the year when people finally say enough to the pervasive influence of materialism

and reconnect with some of the simpler pleasures of life. Perhaps we will see a subtle cultural shift from me to we. Well see. If the economy picksup sooner than expected Id imagine that most people will just dust themselvesoff and carry on as though nothing ever happened.

Richard Watson, January 2009.


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6 www.nowandnext.com 7www.nowandnext.com

This years edition of Ten Trends is printed in black & white in line with one of the trends for2009, namely back to basics. Hopefully 2010 will turn out to be more colourful.

SocietyGlobal Risk

Dangerous currents

Possible red herring

* Size of circle denotes likely impact of trend (hey, its just an educated guess).

Technology

Economy

Environment

Politics

Business

Family

Media

Trend Blend 2009+a m a p o f t i m e a n d t i d e

L E G E N D

www.nowandnext.com

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5

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/gas price spikes

Alternative energy bubble

Outsourcing backlash

Low cost competition

Resource shortages

Skills shortages

Increased regulation

Asset price uncertainty

Networked risk

Rehiring of retirees

Energy insecurity

Web 2.0 campaigning

Immigration backlash

Green taxes

ProtectionismVirtual protests

EMF radiation

Rapid growth oftransnational crime

Map by Richard Watson with help from Ben. More at www.nowandnext.com

Credit default swaps

Collapse of nuclearnon-proliferation treaty

Global supplychain disruption

Electricityshortages

People taking trendmaps too seriously

Slowdown in growth

Industry consolidation

Growth of autocracy

Rising protectionism

Globalisation in retreat

Fall of US Empire

De-leveraging

Virtualisation

Simplicity

Data security

Energy storage

Telepresence

Device convergence

Cloud computing

Merchantilism

Pensions funding

Prediction markets

Shorter product lifecycles

Re-regulation

Inflation

2-speed economies

Sovereign wealth funds

Deflation

Allowable luxuries

Debt stress

Single person households

IMBYs

Extended financial families

Renting things

Home cooked meals

Unplugging

Middle class unrest

Gated communitiesBack to basics

AgeingGRIN tech

Web 2.0

Green IT

Iran

Utility

Authenticity

Trust

Islands of Tranquility

Enoughism

Old skool

We not meSearch forcontrol

Space weather

Power Shift

Eastwards

Climatechange

crisisDigitalisation

Anxiety

Debt

GlobalConnectivity

Sustainability

Uncertainty

Obesity

Volatility

Facebook fatigue

Flight to quality

Seriousness

e-books

Fantasy & escape

Micro-boredom

Digital diets

Digital privacy

Influenza pandemic

Severe heatwaves

Return of SARS

Religious andethnic tension

Increased societalappetite for risk

Food shortages

Nicole Kidman winsanother Oscar

Majorinternet

failure

Criticalinfrastructure

attack

Major earthquake ineconomic centre

Severe water shortages

Storytelling

Too muchinformation

Online video

Short formats

Skimming

Urbanisation

Green cities

Nuclear power

Energy dashboards

Negawatts

Peak landfill

Declining water quality

Bio-fuel backlash

Eco-Cynics

Vertical agriculture

Nano-solar

Wind power

Clean coal

Oi

Collapse of US dollar

CSR

Transparency

Income inequality

Pakistan

l

This map is published under a CreativeCommons Attribution - ShareAlike License.

Robotics

Gesture based computing

Mobile computing

Geo-fencing


5/14

Wearelivinginanxioustimes.FirstitwasY2Kandthen9/11.Morerecentlywevebeenworriedbythethreat

oaglobalupandemic,SARS,DeepVeinThrombosis,rogueasteroids,climatechangeandnow1929

returning.Runninginparalleltoallthis,trustinlargeinstitutions(especiallygovernmentandbigbusiness)

hasallbutevaporated(orwevebecomemorecynicalabouttheabilityotheseinstitutionstotellusthetruth

ordeliver).Theresultisanewageoanxiety.Peopleareworriedaboutjobs,homes,savingsandtheplanet.

Thisinsecurityistosomeextentgenerational,butthereisageneraleelingthattheworldhasspunouto

controlandthatsomeoneistoblame.

Peoplearelookingorscapegoatsbuttheyarealsolookingorsaety,reassuranceandcontrol.Thismeans

thatpeoplewilltendtostickwithindividualsandinstitutionsthattheyknowandtrust.Henceindividualsmovingouto sharestowardssaesavingssuchasgiltsandlowriskbonds.Peoplewillstay injobs

andeducationor longerand will aspireto publicsectorjobsduetoperceivedsecurity.Finally,people

willmoveawayromsillyspendingonthingssuchasorganicwater,althoughtherewillstillbeamarketor

permissibleindulgences.

Wemay also seea demand orsalary andproftcaps incertain industries andthere could also be

anincreaseinadhoccampaignstargetingspecifcorganizationsthatpeopleeelareguiltyobreachingnew

behaviouralnorms.

Intermsoopportunities,productsandservicesthatgiveasenseosecurityorreducestresswilldowell.

Thiscouldbeprovidedbytechnologybutgenerallyitsreassurancewithahumanaceattachedthatpeople

areater.Nostalgicproductsandexperiencesthattapintothe(largelyalse)beliethatweoncelivedinsaer

andmorecertaintimeswillalsodowell

Fear,uncertainty,debt,debt-stress,climatechange,unemploymentandtrust.


1. Fear&Loathing

2. De-Leveraging

3. BacktoBasics

4. DigitalDiets

5. Enoughism

6. IMBYs

7. Seriousness

8. TheHumanBrain

9. Eco-Wars

10. FearotheUnknown


6/14

Byebye complexfnancialproducts at least ora while. Following thesub-prime fasco, simplicity,

transparencyandproductsthatarenotover-engineeredoroverlycomplexarebackinvogue.Sotooare

locallenderswherewhatyouseeiswhatyouget.Butthisswingbacktotheoldskooldoesntjustapplyto

fnancialservices.Uncertaintyandanxietyaredrivingpeopletowardspeopleandproductsthattheyknow

andunderstandinallspheres.

Ipeoplearestrappedorcashtheywilldomanyothethingsthattheydidthelasttimetherewasamajor

recession.Thereoreexpecttoseearesurgenceoreshhomecookedmeals(becausecookingromscratch

costslessmoneybutalsobecausehomecookingtendstopulltheimmediateamilybacktogether).We

shouldalsoseemorepeoplegrowingtheirownood,mendingtheirownclothes,cleaningtheirownhousesandfxingtheirowncars.Atleastwewillorawhileuntilpeoplerememberhowdifcultandrustratingsome

otheseactivitiesareandreverttopreviousbehaviour.

Productsthatarebasicinthesenseobeingstrippeddownorsimpletounderstandanduse.Forinstance,

ownbrandorhouse brand productsin supermarketswilldo well aswillsupermarketbrandsthat are

themselvesbasic(e.g.AldiandLidl).Wemayalsoexperienceanincreasedlevelointerestinold-ashioned,

ecologicallyresponsibleitemssuchashand-poweredlawnmowers,washinglinesandbicycles.Havingsaid

this,itheeconomiccrisisisshort-livedpeoplewillrevertbacktotypeprettyquickly.

Nostalgia,simplicity,localisation,provenance,no-rills,austerity,valueormoney.

10 11www.nowandnext.com www.nowandnext.com

Whatcheapcreditandirrationalexuberancegiveth,tighterlendingcontrolsanduncertaintytakethaway.

Growthisslowingdownandinstitutionsandindividualswillgetridoasmuchdebtasastastheycan.The

lastdecadesawanunprecedentedlevelospending,mostoitdrivenbycheapmoneyandtheattitudethat

whatwentupnolongerwentdown.Theimpactofnancialderegulationandinnovationalsomeantthat

peoplewereoerednewwaystoowemoremoneytomorepeople.Noneothisisnecessarilyaproblemi

youhaveajob,butiyoudontthingscanturnverynastyveryquicklyindeed.

Organisationswillreducetheirdependencyondebt.Thismeansthattheywillsellassetsalthoughbyso

doingtheywillinadvertentlypushthevalueotheseassetsevenlower.Forindividualssellingassetsismore

problematicbecausetheirlargestassetisgenerallytheirhome.Hencetheonlyrealstrategyistospendlessbycuttingbackonnon-essentials.Thismeansbuyingless,fxingthingsratherthanthrowingthemawayand

possiblyrentingthingsratherthanbuyingthemoutright.

Intermsobusiness,expecttoseemoreconsolidationwithmarketsbecomingmorepolarisedbetweenthe

verylargeandtheverysmall.Inthepublicsector,expecttoseegovernmentdebtsoar,resultinginavariety

ou-turnsoverspendingpledgesinareassuchasclimatechange,education,healthandtransport.

Thedebtbingeisnotgoingawaycompletelybutitslikelythatweareenteringaneweraothritanddelayed

gratifcation.Themainorcedrivingthisistheeconomybuttheenvironmentisalsoaactor.

Industry consolidation,deerred gratifcation,cost savings,clothing swaps,second-hand stores,garage

salesandsellingonauctionsites.


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Peopleare becomingalarmed about thehealtho theplanetandespecially thepervasive inuenceo

materialismupontheirlives.Somepeoplehavethereoredecidedtotakepersonalresponsibilityanddo

somethingaboutit.Enoughismisaboutswitchingthingso,buyinglessstuandseekingtoreconnectwith

thesimplerpleasuresolie.Itisaworldwherequalitycounts.Peoplearestillpreparedtopayorthingsbut

theyexpectthemtolast.ThetrendisbestsummedupbyTomHodgkinsoninhisbookHowtoBeFree,who

talksabouttheshitromfndingoutwhatyouwanttodiscoveringwhatyoucandowithout.

Organizationswillbecome increasinglyvalues-driven.Theywillalsobecomemoreconnectedwiththeir

communities,beitageographicareaorthewidercommunityoemployees,customersandsuppliers.

Peoplewillbespendingmoretimewiththeirimmediateamilyandriends.Thisisanopportunitybecause

peoplewillbeinterestedinthingsthatenablethisortapintotheneedtoslowthingsdownalittle.However,

usingtechnologytogivepeoplesuperfcialorremoteaccessisliabletobackfre.Hencechildcarerobots

(currentlyavailableinJapan)willnotbeaninstanthit.

Down-shiting,work/liebalance,searchormeaningandspirituality.

Peoplearedrowningindigitaldata.Forexample,accordingtoanAustraliansurvey,63%opeopleeelthat

theyareoverloadedwithinormationand40%havedifcultyrememberingmorethan3phonenumbers.

Peoplearealsorealisingthatbeinglessconnectedcanactuallybeagoodthing.Forexample,somepeople

arestartingtofndoutthat youcanhavetoomanydigitalriends.Hencenotrespondingtoriendships

requestsordroppingoutosocialnetworkswillbecomecommonplace.Similarlypeopleareslowlywakingup

totheactthattheywasteanextraordinaryamountotimeandmoneyontechnologythatdoesntmaketheir

livesanyeasierorbetter.Thusunpluggingonagenerallevelwillbecomepopularasawayorebalancing

ranticandreneticlives.

Inmanyinstancesthistrendwillbedrivenbynecessity.Itisawayosavingmoneyorreclaimingpersonaloramilytime.However,thereisalsoanaspirationalelementtothistrend.Inthesamewaythatowninga

mobilephonewasonceseenasamarkosophistication,notowningone(orusingonesparingly)isbecoming

asignalthatapersonhassortedouttheirprioritiesorhasrebalancedtheirlie.Peoplemayalsodecidethat

insomeinstancestheoldwayswerethebetterwaysandwillstarttouseproductsandservicesthatdonot

requirepowerorareanantidotetoastdigitalalternatives.

Expecttoseeaninterestinanalogueproducts.Forexample,ountainpens,wet-flmphotography,landline

telephones,paperdiariesandvinylrecords.

NoemailFridays,noBlackberryBankHolidays,FacebookFatigue,MySpaceMalaise,unpluggedvacations

(camping,canoeingandwalkingetc).


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Intimesoseriouseconomicupheavalindividualshavetwooptions.Thefrstoptionistoburyoneshead

inthesandandgosomewhereelse(everythingromescapistmoviestovirtualworlds).Thesecondroute

istofndoutwhatsgoingon.SeriousnewspapersandmagazinessuchasTheFinancialTimesandThe

Economistareseeingincreasesincirculationandtheyarebeingjoinedbya plethoraosteadastlyold-

ashionedink-on-dead-treetitlessuchasProspect,TheWeeklyStandard,HarpersandTheMonthly.This

trendisprimarilyevidentwithinnewspapersandmagazinesbutthesameaectcanbeseenwithnon-fction

books.

Thereisundoubtedlyalargemarketorinormationandentertainmentthatisdumbeddownandservedin

smallbite-sizedchunks.However,thereisalsoalargemarketortheanalysisocomplexissuesandideas.Outsideomediaexpectthingstobecomemoreseriousinotherareastoo.Fashionwillbecomesmarterand

moreormal(atleastatwork)andhaircutswillgetshorter.

Physicalobjectsandliveexperiencestailoredtoaneedtoknow.

Documentaries,literaryestivals,publicdebates,seriouspolitictions.

7. Seriousness

Peoplearebecomingdisillusionedwiththeeectsoglobalisation.Thuswearestartingtoseethedevelopment

ocampaignstomakeproductionandconsumptionmorelocal.HenceIMBYs(InMyBackYard).Thistrendis

theoppositeothepreviousNIMBYtrend(NotInMyBackYard).

Thislinkswithenvironmentalconcernsbutisalsodrivenbyadesiretocontroloutcomes.Thus,inthesame

waythatpeopleoncecampaignedtostopthingshappeninglocally,therewillnowbecampaignstoensure

thateverythingromactoriestoschoolsarebuiltaroundthecornerandsupportthelocalcommunity.

Thetrendismostevidentwithoodwherelocalisationandprovenancearealreadyimportantbutthetrend

willmovebeyondthistoaecteverythingrompoliticstobusiness.

Aninterestinallthingslocal,includingprotests.Addapinchoausterityandthritcausedbyeconomic

circumstancesandthistrendcouldbeacatalystoramajorshittowardslocalinteractions.Alsoexpectto

seeboomindomestictravelandlocalholidays.

Lie-Storylabellingoproductsandserviceswhentheseproductsandservicesarehomegrown.

Economicprotectionism,localisation,nationalism,regulationandprovenance.


9/14


Haveyounoticedhowglobalwarminghasturnedintoareligiouscrusadeolate?Ononesidewehavethe

evangelicalbelieversthattalkinapocalyptictermsabouttheendodays.Opposingthemaretheheretics

whodenyanythingishappeningorinsistthatitisstilluncertainwhysomethingishappeningorwhatthe

consequenceswillbe.Bothsidesusearmiesoactstofghttheirbattlesalthoughbothsidesseemtoorget

thattheseactsarehistoricalandthatanyorecastisjustapredictionandnotanempiricalobservation.

Somewhereinthemiddleothisarethevastmajorityopeoplewhosuspectthatsomethingsignifcantis

goingonbutarenttoosurewhat,duetothecomplexityothedebate.

Thedebatewillcontinuetopolarisealongtheoldlinesoletandright.Radicalenvironmentalistswillargue

thataccumulatingwealthismorallysuspectandwillpursueananti-consumeristandanti-capitalistagendathatincludespopulationcontrol,highertaxation,newregulatoryregimesandradicalchangestopersonal

attitudesandbehaviour.Theothersidewillincreasinglyarguethatthemindomanisattimestakenoverby

anxietyandapprehensionwhenphysicalenemiesdisappear.

Onthebalanceoprobabilityclimatechangeisarealissueandorganizationsshouldbedoingsomething

aboutit,ionlyromariskmanagementperspective.InotherwordsweowetheEarththebeneftothe

doubt.Havingsaidthisthereareworsecatastrophesimaginableandtheremightbebetterwaysospending

trillionsodollarsiyourundamentalobjectiveiseithertosavethemostlivesortoimprovethequalityolie

orthegreatestnumberopeople.

Globalwarming,globalcooling,greenwashing,declineotrust(oratleastanincreaseincynicism),carbon

labelling,carbonootprintsandcarbonosets

Withneuro-enhancementaroundthecornerthebrainisbecomingsexyandissettobecomethemedias

avouriteorganin2009.Thislinkstodevelopmentsinneuroscience,mostnotablyMRIandMRItechnology.

Italsolinkswiththeactthatdigitalinteracesarestartingtopenetratehumaneshandbrainimplants

arebeingdevelopedto treatseriousdiseasessuchasepilepsy.Thestartingpointorthistrendwillbe

developmentsin technology,especiallywithinmedicine,but theimpactionsgobeyondtreatingdisease

towardswhoownswhatsinsideyourownhead.

Expecttoseearushobooksontheinnerworkingothehumanbrainandhowthisrelatestoeverything

romourappreciationomusictoworkandhumanrelationships.Onthelessserioussidetherewillbearash

oproductsandservicesaimedathelpingpeopletoexercisetheirbrainandalsoabunchopseudosciencesurroundingtheuseobrainscanstounderstandcustomerbehaviourandrefnecommercialmessages.

Expecttoseemoreseriousmedicaldiagnosisandmonitoringproducts.Alsotheemergenceomind-control

interaces(productsthatpeoplecancontroljustbythinkingaboutit).Therewillalsobeacontinuinginterest

inbrain-enhancingoods,brain-enhancingdrugsandbrain-enhancinggames,especiallyortheover-55s.

Braintraininggames,neuroethics,neuroplasticityandcollectiveintelligence.


10/14


Anxiety Austerity Authenticity Badoo Basic Blue Busy Change Classic Cloud

Community Compliance Connectivity Control Conviction Core Crisis Debt Deation

Demur Earthy Eco Enough Ergomorphic Eviction Experience Family Factual Fear

Free Frugal Gardening Grateul Green Haptics Home Honest Hopeul Indebted

Ination Inrastructure Intimacy Juncture Keepsake Local Meta Natural

OutlierOverwhelmed Pamphlet Payo Polarisation Privacy Protectionism

Prudery Purpose Quality Reassurance Recession Recovery Redundancy

Regulation Resentment Resignation Renovation Restraint Risk Saving Security

Serious Shaken Shortage Shredding Simplicity Slow Smart Sparkle Spike

Stress Stagation Struggling Surviving Technophobic Telepresence Thrit

Tired Traditional Trustworthy Uncertain Unashioning Unplugged

Unwind Unwired Virtual Volatile Water White

Xenophobic Yearning Zeitgeist

.

Thepointothistrendistopushhomethepointthattheutureisultimatelyunknowable.Yesyoucansee

generalpatternsandmakewell-educatedspeculationsaboutnextweekornextyearbasedpartlyonpast

eventsandhumanbehaviour.Butihistoryteachesusanythingitissurelythattotallyunexpectedideas,

inventionsandevents(theso-calledBlackSwansin2008speak)haveahabitoruininglogicalandwell

laid-outplans.Uncertaintyalsolinkswithideassurroundinganxietyandcomplexityanditisinterestingto

notethatduringpreviousperiodsorapidchangeandupheaval,superstitionanddogmaticreligiousbelies

bothourished.

Anythingcanhappen.Havingsaidthisthereareclearlythingsweknow.Therearealsothingsweknowwe

dontknowandtherearethingswedontknowthatwedontknow.Trend#10isaboutthesecondgroupounknowns(highlyimprobablebuthighlyimpactuleventsthattendnottoollowtrendlinesorlogic-those

BlackSwansagain).

Thistrend(OK,itsreallymoreoanideaorobservation)isabouthowwhensomethingbigandunexpected

happens(e.g.afnancialcrisis)weoverreactatertheevent.Weassumethatthesamethingwillhappen

againandmakeplanstostopit.Forexample,iterroriststakeoversomeplanesandythemintobuildings

weassumethattheywilldoitagain,inthesamewayandpossiblyevenonthesamedate.Thebiglinkhere

iswithouraversiontoriskandthe(largelyalse)ideathatwecantotallycontrolriskorliveina100%risk

reeenvironment.

Anythingcanwork.Anythingcant.

Almostanything.


11/14


youstilldoubttheexistenceocyclesconsidertheollowinglistwhichappropriatelyenough,includes

botheconomiccyclesandbicycles.

PeopleorgetthatabouttenyearsagoAppleComputer(theyusedthewordComputerinthosedays)wasalmostbankrupt.SteveJobsgotkickedout

othecompanyandmostanalystsregardedthecompanyasanalsoranthatwouldeventuallyrunoutosteam.SteveJobsthencamebackasCEO

inwhatmustsurelybeoneothegreatestsecondactsinbusinesshistoryandAppleistransormingitselintoaglobalconsumerelectronicscolossus.

Twentyyearsagothetheatrewassupposedtobedeadandnothingwasmoreunpopularthanmusicals.

NowyoucantgetaseatorMamaMia,CatsorWeWillRockYouorloveormoney.

TheEndoHistory?Hardly.Aspredictionsgo,thisone,romFrancisFukayamaprovedtobemorethanalittleothemark.

Yestheyarebadoryouandwestoppedeatinganddrinkingdairyproductsorawhilebutnowwe

havemuchbiggerthingstoworryaboutoverourskinnylatte.

Whenrockbandssplituptheyarenotsupposedtocomeback.Notanymore.AwaveoboomerandGenXnostalgiahasrebuiltthe

lostcareersobandsasdiverseasTheEagles,LedZeppelin,TakeThat,BlurandTheSexPistols.

Thehumblepedalcycleisaclassicexampleoaconsumermarketthatmostpeoplehadwrittenoasamarketinterminaldecline.

However,someoneinCaliorniastartedtoplayaroundandsooninventedthemountainbike.Thishappenedataboutthesametime

thattheexerciseandftnessboomtookointhe1980sandheyprestothemarketwasreborn.Proo,iyouneedit,

thatthereisnosuchthingasatiredanddecliningmarketonlytiredanddecliningmarketers.

RelationsbetweentheUSandRussiathawedoutorawhilebuttheyarenowstartingtoreezeoveragain.

Asordictatorsandauthoritariangovernmentstheyneverwentaway.

ItwaswidelyassumedthatphonebankingandthenonlineandInternetbankingwouldkillphysical

bankbranches.Notso.Therearenow10%morephysicalbanksintheUSthantherewere10

yearsago.Gofgure.

No,Idontunderstandeither.

Foodination,Energyination,Generalination.Theyareallcoming.Trustme.

Mostotheworldisslippingintorecessionbutatthesametimeinationisrisingalmostuniversally.Stagationwas

lastseeninthe1970sandwaswidelythoughttobeadeadeconomicphenomenon.

Wellyourereadingthisarentyou?Maybephysicalmediawillbedeadintheuturebutnotoraverylongtimeyet.

Somepeoplethoughtthatreligionwouldbedeadbynow,killedeitherbyascientifctheorythatexplainedcreation

orbytheinternet,underwhichitwouldbeimpossibletohiderominormationthatchallengedyourbelies.

Neitherhashappened.Indeedintimesoinsecurity,complexity,andanxietyanincreasingnumbero

peoplearetuningtowardsoneaithoranotherbecausetheyoerbothcertaintyandsimplicity.

MargaretThatcheronceamouslyproclaimedthatsocietyisdead.Itisnt.

Thepageantwasdoneawaywithbyeministsbutwasbewilderinglyresurrectedbytelevisionexecutives.

Whatgoesaroundcomesaround,inthiscaselargelyduetobaddiet,

inactivityandapinchocomplacency.

Wereallsupposedtobetelecommutingandvideoconerencingremember?


12/14


InAlgeria,70%olawyersand60%ojudgesarewomen.

MurderistheleadingcauseodeathamongpregnantwomenintheUS.

Therearenow3.3billionmobilephoneaccountsglobally,afgureroughlyequaltohaltheworldspopulation.

Sharkskillaround10peopleeachyear.Fallingcoconutskillapproximately150.

Itisestimatedthatfnancialservicescompaniesholdaround30%oallofcespaceinLondon.

Thereisexpectedtobea36%increaseinthenumberopeopleaged75+inJapanbetween2005and2015.Duringthesameperiodthenumberopeopleagedunder5years-o-ageispredictedtodeclineby13%.

TheSel-storageindustryinAmericahasgrownmorethan40-oldsincethe1960sandnowconsistsooverabillionsquare-eetoempty(andnotsoempty)space.InvaluetermstheindustryisnowconsiderablylargerthantheUSmusicindustry.

AccordingtoGartner,80%oInternetuserswillhaveavatarsordigitalreplicasothemselvesbytheyear2011.

Approximately2,600peopledieand330,000peopleareseriouslyinjuredeveryyearintheUSduetotalkingandtextingoncell-phoneswhilstdriving.

24%oRussiansexpecttoseeaclashwiththeUSinthenearuturecomparedwithonly4%oChinese.

Around80%oallnewsavailableontheInternetoriginatesinnewspapers.

9.5millionpeoplenowhavefnancialassetsoatleastUS$1million.

TheUSDepartmentoDeenceisaimingtoreplace33%oarmedvehicleswithrobotsbytheyear2015.

Almost10%oBritishhomesnolongerhavealandlinetelephone.

14,000newcarstaketotheroadinChinaeverysingleday.

SalesoCDmusictitlessoldinpaperjackets(i.e.reminiscentovinylrecords)roseby100%inJapanin2005.

90%oallscientistsandengineerswithPhDswillliveinAsiaby2010.

Othe120,000blogscreateddaily,50%areaboutthesamesubject-thewriter.

Bytheyear2015,WestAricawillbecometheworldslargestsourceocrudeoiloutsideotheMiddleEast.

AreportbytheKaiserFamilyFoundationsaysthat53%oUSstudents(grades7-12)consumedanotherormomediawhilstwatchingtelevision.

ThefneorpossessingahamsterinVietnamisUS$1,900.

1%oalladultsintheUSareinjail.

FamiliesintheUKspendGB14,800peryearonhouseholdbills.Fiveyearsagothefgurewas8,000.

Therearenowmorepensionersaged>sixty(11.2million)thanchildrenaged


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24 www.nowandnext.com www.nowandnext.com

Howarethetrendpredictionsrompreviousissuesothispublicationdoing?Lookingbackitseemsthey

arestandingupquitewell.Forexample,HappinesswasidentifedasanissuebackinJanuary2006.

Rememberthoughthatmajortrendsdontchangeveryast,somostothesehistoricaltrendsarestill

veryactivetoday.Inotherwords,dontignorethesetrendssimplybecausetheyareold.

1. Rhythm&balance

2. Karmacapitalism

3. Makingthings

4. Somethingornothing

5. Industrialprovenance

6. Robotics 7. Datavisualisation

8. Realitymining

9. Eco-exhaustion

10. Fantasy&escape

1. Simplicity

2. Myway

3. Selreliance

4. Carbon

5. Water

6. Open

7. Privateequity

8. Lowcost

9. Luxury

10. Meaning

1. Anxiety

2. Connectedness

3. Speeding-up

4. Mobility

5. Convergence

6. Privacy

7. Nostalgia

8. Localisation

9. Authenticity

10. Happiness

2007+10Trends:Predictions& Provocations

10Trends:Predictions& Provocations10Trends: Predictions& Provocations


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2009+: 10 trends: predictions & provocations -- richard watson

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