20080717_session 1_early warning_claude heimo

8/7/2019 20080717_Session 1_Early Warning_Claude Heimo

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FoodSecurityandFamineEarlyWarningFoodSecurityandFamineEarlyWarningPreparedByClaudeR.HeimoPreparedByClaudeR.Heimo

EEFDirectorandSarmapSeniorAssociEEFDirectorandSarmapSeniorAssoci

FoodisoneofthemostbasicneedsofmanAprimitivemanhasenjoyedtheabundanceoffoodathisown

desireandefforttoacquireit.But,modernman,despitethesophisticatedandtremendoust

madeduring

the

past

century

is

unable

to

meet

one

of

the

mankind.

Millionsofpeoplearesickanddyingduetothelackoffood.Itabletofeedeveryoneinaworld,whichproducesenoughfoo

theirdailyminimumenergyrequiremenSource:FAOReport,1999


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UnderUndernn

20012001

(inm(inm

FoodsecurityconditioninMay2008FoodsecurityconditioninMay2008


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Since1990,virtuallyNSince1990,virtuallyN

towardsmeetingthetowardsmeetingthe


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ChangeinthepropChangeintheprop

underundernourishedinnourishedin

from

1990

to

from

1990

to

2


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NumberofcountrNumberofcountr

foodemergencies1foodemergencies1


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MainFactorsaffecMainFactorsaffec

SecurityinDevelopinSecurityinDevelopin

Poverty

Populationpressure

Lowagriculturalprodu

Environmentaldegrada

Natural

disaster,

confli Innapropriatemacroec

policies

Lackofofffarmemplo

Limitedaccesstoeduc

Poorhealthandsanita

AIDS) Genderdiscrimination

Lowcapacitiestoresis(disasters,economiccrpricefluctuations)


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RecentTrendsfurthRecentTrendsfurth

FoodSecurFoodSecur

Inadditiontotheundedevelopingcountriesinfood/cropproduction:

AboostingdemandfChinaandIndia(asadecadesofgrowthan

Aswitchofagriculturfoodsupplytobiofue

Poorharvestsduetosomemajorgrainpro

(Australia,USA) Increasingtransport

inputscostsduetob

Speculation( assumwillcontinuetorise)


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FamineEarlyWarni

seeksanswersth

questions

Whichpopulationgroupsarefacingfor

famine,

and

for

how

long?

Whataretheextendandimpactsofimpedingeventsonthepopulations

Whatarethebestwaystorespondtoinsecurityandfamineandmitigateaorshockstolivelihoodsystems?


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OverallObjecOverallObjec

FSIEWFSIEW

Monitorfoodsecuritysituation, notablyinvulnerablecountrcontinuousassessmentoftheavailabilityandaccesstofooda

Provideadequateinformationonagriculturalproductionduring

Detect

in

advance

changes,

or

(natural

and/or

man

made)

crisessecuritysituationsandprovokefamines(exanteriskmanageme

Improvetheknowledge ofcausesandcirconstancesoffamines

Assessvulnerabilities (conjuncturalandstructural)thatcouldaffresistencetoshocks(orcopingcapacities) riskmangement)

Facilitatetheidentificationofstrategiesandmeanstobeprosocioeconomicandhealthimpactsoffamines

Improvetheefficiencyandeffectivenessoffoodaidintervenfoodcrisisthroughtheadvancedidentificationofriskorvulne

Improvethemakingoffoodsecurityandpovertyalleviationimplementationatnationallevel


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FSI&FEWSBasicSegmFSI&FEWSBasicSegm

Forec

Predi Warn

Reac


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FEWSEndFEWSEndUserCoUserCo


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BasicindicatorsforasBasicindicatorsforas

securitysecurity


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The Basic Concept Food S

and Famine Early Wa

Structural & C

Vulner

Quantitative

& Qualitative

Information

Earth Observation

Data

Ground Data

Meteo D

Inform

Dissemi

Early W

Inform


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Continental

Regional

GMFSGMFS

providingproviding

informationinformation

on cropson crops

National

Local


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FamineEarlyWarFamineEarlyWarn

currentlyoperacurrentlyoperat

TransnationalFEWS

FEWSnet USAIDFamineEarlyWarningSystem

GIEWS FAOGlobalInformationandEarlyWarni

VAM

WFP

Vulnerability

Analysis

and

Mappin MARSFOOD MonitoringAgriculturewithRemoteSen

FIVIMS FoodInsecurityandVulnerabilityInformSystems

Regional/NationalFEWS

AP3A AlertePrcoceetPrvisiondesProductio(CILSS/Aghrimet Sahel)

SADC RegionalEarlyWarningSystemforFood

DMC DroughtMonitoringCenters(SADC/IGAD

AEDES Systmesdinformationsurlascurit a


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ProblemsaffectingtheProblemsaffectingthe

existingFSI&FEexistingFSI&FE

Lackofcommonlanguage,commonindicatorsandlackofexistingsystems

Difficultiesandlackoftransparencyinaccessingbasicdatanotablysocioeconomicdata

Spaceborneinformationaregenerallyonlyavailableatglo

spiteofthefactthatrequirementsareatnational,subnatTheuseofNDVItoassessvegetationvigorand/orforecastquestionable,notablyunderaridorsemiaridconditions

Estimatingorforecastingyieldatnationalorsubnationalresolutiondataremainsrisky

Estimating

crop

acreage

through

low

resolution

data

remaimpossible

Spacebornetechnologiescurrentlyinuse inmanyexistingnewtechnologicaladvancesinthefieldofearthobservaticapacitiesofexistingsensorsonboardrecentsatellites


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Transnational,Transnational,

Regional andRegional and

NationalNational

FEWSFEWS

FrequentlyFrequently

usedusedIndicatorsIndicators

for Foodfor FoodSecuritySecurity


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GMFS

Basic

ObjGMFS

Basic

Obj

Stren

faminsyste

..fo

inform

(in)se

maki

globa


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FromuserstopFromuserstop

Morethan30userorganizations

existingFEWScurrentlyoperating

Annuallyrenewedagreementsw

organizations(SLAs)

FAOGIEWS,

WorldFoodProgramme VAM,

EC JRC/MARS

AGRHYMET(Niger),

RCMRD(Kenya),

SADC(Botswana)

SUDAN:FederalMinistryofAgriculture&ForestryWFP,..

ETHIOPIA:CentralStatisticsAuthority,FAO,WFP,Agency,

SENEGAL:MinistryofAgriculture,CSE, Meteo,..

ZIMBABWE:MinistryofAgriculture,FAO,WFP,Ce

MOZAMBIQUE:MinistryofAgriculture, Meteo

L


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TheGMFSMultiScaleEarthObserva


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Satellite

dataSatellite

data Optical highresolutiondata(315m

SPOT, Landsat, Formosat,LISS,AWI

SARdata mediumandhighresolutio

ENVISATASAR,ALOSPALSAR,COSM

Lowresolutionopticaldata(+1km) SPOTVGT,MERIS,MODIS


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GMFSServiceGMFSService

toendtoend

GMFSprovidesfourinform

EarlyWarningserv

Agriculturalmappin

Yieldassessmentse

EO

based

support

tmissions

+SupporttoUsers:trainin


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ServicestoFamineEarlyWServicestoFamineEarlyW

Data distributionthroughemails 7Regionsofinterest,10dailyupdates

Monitoringoftheprogressofthegrowingseason

Variousindicators(VPI, fAPAR,),JRCMARSindicators

Use&buildingapplications!


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MonitoringAgriMonitoringAgri

ProductioProductio Estimatingtotalcroppedarea

BasedonFieldwork,integratedwithRe

Sudan,Malawi,Senegal,Zimbabwe,Eth

Multiannual,yearly

Cropyieldestimates

Yieldmodels:remotesensing& meteo

Malawi,Senegal


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Example:Estimatingcropyieldfor

e color composite on the

illustrates a multi-

mporal data set based on

VISAT ASAR AP (120

ges) and ALOS PALSAR

S (70 scenes) data

ering the whole Malawi

0,000 sqkm, 15molution). The image on

right shows an

erferometric color

mposite based on ALOS

LSAR FBS data (70

ge pairs). The

argements highlight the

ensive information

uded in this type of

ti-temporal multi-rce data set, which

ws the generation of

ducts such as crop

p, main land

er/change classes, and

tal elevation model. All

cessing has been

formed starting from

w data.


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SupporttoFAO/WFPCSupporttoFAO/WFPC

SupplyAssessmentMisSupplyAssessmentMis

ProvidinginformationfuGovernmentrequestsfoproductionassessmentm

ParticipatingtoCFSAMfijointlybyGovernmentanandobservers

Example:Zimbabwe

GoZdeclared2006/7drough

GoZRequestedforFAO/WFP

EstimatingFoodProductioni April2007:Jointevaluationmeeting:FA

Hotspotanalysis


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ExampleExample Zimbabwe2007Zimbabwe2007


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Dataintegration&inDataintegration&in

managemenmanagemen

Objective:integrateservic

systems

FAOGEONETW WFPFoodInsec

(FAOGIEWS)

ESADataDissem

CSE,AGRHYM

EUMETCASTsys

Makinguseoft

forImageproces


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ConclusionsConclusions

GMFS can provide today, on a operat

information on agriculture at national

are continuously on-going.

The service has been developed based on

Note that data availability and cost is n

as in the past.

Local expertise is essential for i) a corr

the land management, ii) data calibrativalidation.

Capacity building at all levels (tec

political) is conditio sine qua non in orde

expertise and obtain services awareness


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The Way AheadThe Way Ahead

Integration of Earth Observation base

methodologies, in particular statistical a

Expand the on-going activities to new c

Expand the spectrum of the produ

considering natural resources (wate

infrastructures (roads and settlements)


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Note: This publication has been made available by CSEND with the agrement of the author.

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20080717_session 1_early warning_claude heimo

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