2008 tasmanian dairy conference grain market update october 2008 amy stokes – rural logic (aust)...
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2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference
Grain Market Update
October 2008Amy Stokes – Rural Logic (Aust) P/L
Burnie Tasmania
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Outline
InternationalDomesticTasmaniaGrain Outlook 2008/09
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
International – World Wheat S & D
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
International – Wheat Futures
Feb 2008
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
International – Corn (Feed Grain)
June 2008
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
International - Canola/Soybeans – 2005-2008
July 08
Soybeans
Canola
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
US Stocks to Use/Prices 2004-2009
04/5 05/6 06/7 07/8 08/9 09/0
Wheat 21%$3.40
25%$3.42
20%$4.26
11%$7.25
24%$6.25
????
Corn 20%$2.06
17%$2.00
12%$3.04
12%$5.00
7%$6.00
7%$5.50
Soybean 9%$5.91
16%$5.66
19%$6.43
4%$11.00
4%$12.00
5%$12.50
Summary - Wheat recovering, but feedgrains and oilseeds still tight
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Domestic Production – S & D
WA
NT
QLD
SA
NSW
VIC
TAS
TAS
Crop Forecast 2008/09
Wheat 20.8 MT
Barley 7.4 MT
Canola 1.3 MT
Wheat 6.2 MT
Wheat 1.7 MT
Wheat 1.6 MT
Wheat 3.1 MT
Wheat 7.8 MT
Source: NAB Oct 08
Track $ 285FOB $ 32Export $ 317
Track $ 288FOB $ 40Export $ 328
Track $ 288FOB $ 44Export $ 332
Track $ 290FOB $ 44Export $ 334
Track $ 300FOB $ 44Export $ 344
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Domestic – Grain Prices del Melbourne
2002 & 2006 – local droughts
2007-8 –Export driven
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Tasmania
Quality & Supply Freight & Fuel Levy DPIE – IR 30 & Charges TFES Scheme FCL vs Bulk Contracts – Spot vs Forward
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Tasmania – Grain Pricing
Old Crop December 08 Wheat & Barley availability – limited Protein – Tight supply
New Crop January 09 + Wheat MelbourneA $ 335 / MT Barley Melbourne A $ 280 / MT
2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania
Good Luck – Any Questions?