2006 koorey rspeconf ihsdm ppt
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App l icat i on o f I HSDMHigh w ay Safe t y Model l i ng
t o New Zealan d
2006 Australasian Road SafetyResearch Policing & EducationConference, Gold Coast, QLD
Glen KooreyUniversity of Canterbury
Christchurch, New Zealand
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Pr esen t at i on Ou t l in e
Rural Roads in NZ
Background to IHSDM Package
Adaptation of IHSDM to NZ
Calibration of Crash Prediction Model
Development of Local Design Policy File
Importing Road Alignment Data
Local Site Testing
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NZ Road Net w or k ...
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NZ Road
N e t w o r k
90,000 km of Roads
~65% sealed
10,800 km of State Highways (Transit NZ)
170 km of motorway Remaining SHs largely two-lane rural roads
Relatively difficult terrain
Major concerns with sub-standard curves andlack of passing opportunities
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Ev a lu a t in g Road
Net w or k I m p r ov em en t s
Key consideration is expected crash risk
Existing & Proposed alignments
This information helps to
Prioritise existing sections for investigation Determine relative cost-effectiveness of
different improvement options
Relatively simplistic tools available in NZ More suited to isolated features
e.g. single curve
IHSDM has potential to help here
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I HSDM Deve lopm en t
Initial development focused on
two-lane rural highways
First public version, start of 2003
Version 3.0, Sept 2006
Work on multi-lane rural highways& urban arterials to come
First modules by 2007
IHSDM very applicable to the bulk ofNZ's rural state highway network
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I HSDM Modu les
Six modules (in single application)
(Driver/Vehicle Module still under development)
All combined with associated support tools
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Adap t at ion o f I HSDM
t o NZ
IHSDM designed for local customisation
Tasks to make IHSDM suitable for NZ use:
1. Calibrate crash prediction model with NZ data
2. Develop NZ Design Policy file based on localagency standards and guidelines
3. Develop importing routine for NZ highwaygeometry data
4. Modify models vehicle fleetin traffic simulation module
5. Validate speed prediction
routines for NZ conditions
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Cr ash Pr ed ict ion Modu le
(CPM)
Estimates number & severity of crashes on
roadway segments and intersections
CPM algorithm consists of
Base m ode l Provide estimate of safety performance for a
set of assumed nominal conditions
Cr ash m od i f i ca t i on f act o r s
Adjust base model to account for effects of:
Lane width, Shoulder width/type, Driveways,
Horizontal curves, Grades, Sight distance,
Passing lanes, Intersection control, Turn lanes
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Can use Empirical Bayes procedure
Combine safety predictions with crash history
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CPM Ou t p u t s
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CPM Cal i b r at io n
Calibration process available for adapting
CPM to any particular highway agency
Process allows for adjustment of 3 factors
Scaling factor for overall crash numbers Modify relative crash severity proportions
Modify relative crash type proportions
Spreadsheet templates for derivation ofsuitable calibration parameters
Ability to direct ly include historical crash
data also helps to calibrate the model
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CPM Cal i b r at io n
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Po l i cy Rev iew Modu le
(PRM)
Automates checks of compliance with
state/national highway design policies
Currently provided with US Federal(AASHTO) standards & guidelines
Specified in external files
Able to accept alternative criteria
e.g. state dept or local design policies
Local policy file developed for this work
Based on Austroads Rural Road Design
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PRM Ou t p u t s
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Pol icy Fi le Cal ib r a t ion
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I m p or t in g Road
Al ig n m en t Dat a
A number of different ways for road data
to be created or directly imported: Manually entered using Highway Editor tool
IHSDM "comma-separated values" (CSV) files
Industry-standard LandXML files
Most roading design software packages canproduce LandXML files from alignment data
e.g. Geopak, MX-Road, 12D
What about exist ing road geometry data?
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SH Geom et r y Da t a
( 1 0 m I n t er v als)
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Elem ent s Gener a t ed
f r om Road Geom Dat a
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Tr ia l
S i te
Wel l i ng ton
Auck land
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SH1 Aw at er e Br i dge
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Si te
Des ign
Existing/
ProposedAlignments
New route
alsoremovesrailwaycrossing
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Ex i st i ng Al ign m en t
Existing
Bridg
e
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Pr oposed Al ign m en t
Proposed
Brid
ge
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Ex i st i ng Al ign m en t
Existing
Bridge
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Pr oposed Al ign m en t
Propose
d
Bridge
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Fu t u r e W o r k
Local calibration tasks to complete
Awatere Bridge now under reconstruction
Validation of the crash prediction models forthe new alignment cant yet be undertaken
Further local testing of IHSDM planned
Highway sections realigned some years ago
Geometry data for both alignments
Sufficient before/after crash data available
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Conc lus ions
IHSDM is a promising tool for safety and
operational assessment of highwayalignments in New Zealand
Further work ongoing to carry out necessary
calibrations for general use here
Merit in a similar process being used toadapt IHSDM for other jurisdictions?
e.g. Australian states
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Fu r t h er I n f o r m at ion
Glen Koorey
University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ
http://www.civi l .canterbury.ac.nz
Download software from IHSDM website
h t t p : / / w w w . i h s d m . o r g /
FHWA Background references/research
http://www.tfhrc.gov/safety/ ihsdm/ihsdm.htm
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Th ank You !
Any Questions?
Join the University of Canterbury
Master of Engineering in Transportation(MET) Postgraduate Programme
Part-time study available for practitioners
Visitwww.met.canterbury.ac.nzfor more info