2. water disaster prevention (40 min.). water disaster prevention focused on floods and droughts...
TRANSCRIPT
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2. WATER DISASTER PREVENTION (40 min.)
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WATER DISASTER PREVENTION WATER DISASTER PREVENTION focused on floods and droughts focused on floods and droughts
INFORMATION LECTUREINFORMATION LECTURE
SUMMER SCHOOL/WORKSHOP
Prof. Pavel KOVARCULS Prague
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WATERWATER RESOURCESRESOURCES MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT
PROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCESPROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCESPROTECTION OF SOCIETY AGAINST WATER EXTREMES PROTECTION OF SOCIETY AGAINST WATER EXTREMES
INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: DUBLINS PRINCIPES (1992):DUBLINS PRINCIPES (1992):• FRESH WATER IS AN EXHAUSTIBLE AND VULNERABLE FRESH WATER IS AN EXHAUSTIBLE AND VULNERABLE RESOURCESRESOURCES• PARTICIPATION OF ALLPARTICIPATION OF ALL• WATER AS AN ASSET WATER AS AN ASSET • IMPORTANT ROLE OF WOMENIMPORTANT ROLE OF WOMEN
WATER REQUIREMENTS
AVAILABLE RESOURCES
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STATUS OF WORLD FRESH WATER STATUS OF WORLD FRESH WATER AVAILABILITYAVAILABILITY
PARAMETR
STATUS
1997 2050
POPULATION* (in billions) 5.8 9.8
POPULATION AFFECTED BY WATER SCARCITY (in millions)
170 1700
COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY WATER SCARCITY
18 39
* * Medium population projectionMedium population projectionSource: Gardner and Engelman, 1997Source: Gardner and Engelman, 1997Note: Note: Some other sources may have have a different viewSome other sources may have have a different view
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Floods & Droughtskilled 450 thousands peopleaffected 1,5 bilions people
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Floods & Droughts80% of all catastrophesDamage of 370 bilions USD
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REASONS FOR FLOODSREASONS FOR FLOODS
• HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SITUATION SMALL CATCHMENTS:TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS LARGE CATCHMENTS: COMBINATIONS OF REGIONAL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS
Most important criteria: Depth P (mm) and Intensity i (mm.min-1) of rainfall.
• ANTECEDENT SATURATION OF THE UPPER SOIL ZONE ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION INDEX API (mm) –in 30 previous days SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT SMD (mm) – continously
• MEASURES FOR INCREASING RETENTION / ACCUMULATION OF WATER
= DECREASING DIRECT (SURFACE) RUNOFF:Land use, landscape structure, erosion control measures, soil management, water management: natural depressions, retention barriers, (fish)ponds, channel+inundations together (dikes and polders). Weirs and dams?
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HOW TO LIVE WITH FLOODSCASE STUDY: Czech Republic,
August 2002
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FLOOD in PRAGUE 2002 Situation: Two heavy rain periods: 6 - 7/8/2002 (250mm) 11-12/8/2002 (200mm) (Cyclon from Mediterranean area over the Alps blocked above Central Europe by the high pressure area on
Baltic region)
Rivers: Vltava river + tributaries: Berounka river- last) 14 August 2002 meeting of them
(Vltava has the cascade of dams)
Catastrophe: Qmax=5 300 m3.s-1 (Q500) , 15 people killed , 4 billions EUR
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REAL FLOODSREAL FLOODS
(rainfall, surface runoff)(rainfall, surface runoff)The flow rates et the main water-stages above and in Prague.
VSmax = 785 cm
cca 5300 m3.s-1
VSmax = 796 cm
cca 1800 m3.s-1
VSmax = 467 cm
cca 440 m3.s-1
Qmax = cca 3500 m3.s-1
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
8.8.2002 9.8.2002 10.8.2002 11.8.2002 12.8.2002 13.8.2002 14.8.2002 15.8.2002 16.8.2002 17.8.2002 18.8.2002
source ofthe data CHM I
Q (
m3 .s
-1)
Vltava - Malá Chuchle Berounka - Beroun Sázava - Nespeky VD Vrané - balance outflow
note: The input data are compile by water authority Povodí Vltavy based on operative data. This data might be further modify after detailed evaluation by The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.
Trója - Císařský ostrov - ÚČOVTrója - Císařský ostrov - ÚČOV
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Preparations of flood protection measuresPreparations of flood protection measures
Flood preventionFlood prevention
Flood effectivenessFlood effectiveness
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FLOODS Five types of measures:• Early warning: Information, Warning: four elements of people centred warning systems:
- Risk knowledge (systematically data collection) - Monitoring & warning service - Communicate risk information- dissemination - Response capability (reaction to warning)
• Pre-flood measures: Last time physical prevention: - evacuation - sand sack providing - mobile gates installation
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• Rescue execution: Continuing flood forecast and warning, rescue team- evacuation, housing and dormitory facilities
• Post – flood measures: flood water drainage, pumping, drying
• Long-time measures:
Technical: Flood areas zoning, technical measures from: land use changes via: river discharge capacities increasing to: diking, poldering, reservoirs and dams operation Legislative: EU and national WF Directives, reimburses of flood damages, insurance companies involvement, training of integrated teams (firemen, police,health service, civil service, volunteers,etc.)
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BASIC ISSUES FOR EFFECTIVE FLOOD CONTROL
• To increase natural water retention capacityInterrupting surface runoff, decrease water velocity, linking river channel with flood plain (inundation)
• To build technical measuresPoldering and diking, mobile gates in urbanised areas, dams and reservoirs.
• To develop flood prevention systemFlood zoning (land planning and management), Role of government, civil service, municipality, owners.Early warning system.
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HOW TO MITIGATE FLOOD IMPACTS(High impact public issues)
FLOOD PREVENTION STRATEGYFLOOD PREVENTION STRATEGYStructural measures:Building flood protection systems• Increasing retention capacities (hydraulic structures)• Protecting urbanised areas• Protecting water management infrastructure Non-structural measures:Applying non-investment costs• Operational flood control plans, early warning systems, info to inhabitants• Risk knowledge, systematic data collection and processing (models)• Flood areas zoning determination• Training of integrated teams
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MANAGEMENT CONTROL PRACTICESMANAGEMENT CONTROL PRACTICES(Flood & Erosion Control)
• Vegetation cropping (dense canopy, growing duration, effect of interception, mulch, effectiveness)
• Soil management (deep ploughing, contour tillage, strip cropping)
• Headwater management (field storage, terracing, ditch storage, small ponds, winter lagoons, gully control, torrent control)
• Management in water-protected areas-water for drinking purposes: Protective zones - 1st: 30 m to 200 m, closed by fence (no agriculture), no entrance - 2nd: 200m to 1 or 2 km, limited use (no concentrated animal husbandry, organic
farming only)
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• strip croppingstrip cropping
Agronomic erosion controlAgronomic erosion control
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• terracesterraces
TECHNICAL EROSION CONTROLTECHNICAL EROSION CONTROL
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• GullyGully/torrent/torrent control control
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DEFINITIONS OF DROUGHTSDEFINITIONS OF DROUGHTSCLIMATE VARIATIONS
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
INFILTRATION DECREASE EVAPORATION INCREASE
SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT
PLANT STRESS
GROUNDWATER STORAGE DECREASE
RUNOFF DECREASE
ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
Meteorologicdrought
Agriculturaldrought
Hydrologicdrought
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Trends in soil moisture content (AW) during rainless periods
Drought analysis – Depletion curves
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DROUGHT ASSESSMENT METHODS
• Return period of drought (Q364 , Q355) with consideration of drought duration
• Depletion curve construction• Exceeding curves of runoff deficits and deficit
period duration
DROUGHT CONTROL PRACTICES• Rainwater harvesting and storing• Growing less water-requiring crops• Irrigation systems (drip irrigation)• Brakish/saline water desalination and use• Groundwater use (for drinking purposes only)
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CAN WE QUANTIFY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER REGIMES?
Arguments clearly recognising climate change: • Increase of temperature (0.6°C in the last 100 years)
• Increase of greenhouse gases concentration (CO2, N2O, CH4, etc.)- depending on localities
• Increasing number of natural disasters
Opinions admitting climate variations only:• Statistical analyses are often based on assumptions and exeggerated (see
B.Lomborg:“Sceptic Environmentalist“)• Disaster risk from taifoons (Asia) and hurricanes (America) do not exceed
previous historical catastrophes• Future economic development will be more regional than global
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CLIMATE CHANGEEURURALIS Scenarios
Since 1800 CO2 concentrations increased by 30%, CH4 by 150% , N2O by 20%.Prognosis to 2100 global temperature increase by 1,9°C to 4,3°Cdepending on the scenario:
Global A1 B1 Global Economy Global co-operation (rapid economic growth) (service & info-based economy)
A2 B2 Continental Market Regional Communities
(heterogeneous world) (social & envi sustainability)
Regional
Low
reg
ulat
ion
Hig
h R
egul
atio
n
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POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN WATER POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES
TEMPERATURE INCREASE
PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY DECREASEINCREASE
INCREASE OF FLOOD FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY INCREASE OF DRY PERIODS
DURATION AND DROUGHT STRESS
DEGRADATION OF SOIL SURFACE, EROSION
DESERTIFICATION
AGRICULTURAL/FORESTRY PRODUCTIVITY DECREASE FOREST BURNING LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MALNUTRITION AND FAMINE POVERTY
INCREASE SEDIMENTS IN RIVERS
INCREASE OF SILTATIONIN RESERVOIRS
DECREASE OF MANAGABLE WATER RESOURCES
DECREASE OF RE- SERVOIR LIFE TIME AND INCREASE OF MAINTENANCE COST
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RISK ASSESSMENTRisk = Chance . Damage
Chance: Hydrologic computation of N-year water level
Damage: Tangible: real estate damage, and/or Intangible: environmental damage, loss of
confidence in authorities (incl. government, etc.)
Note 1: Inssurance companies take this seriously in many countries. It is one effective tool that does not allow to rebuilt houses on the same site („active zone“ on flooding areas)
Note 2: The risk assessment method for droughts is not yet broadly used for reasons of uncertainity
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INTRODUCTIONTO EARLY WARNING
ELLS SUMMER SCHOOL ON
WATER DISASTER PREVENTIONwith emphasis on floods and droughts
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• Ultimate goal of early warning:
TO SAVE LIVES AND PROPERTY
• Objective of warning process:
TO PROVIDE INFORMATION ON RISK
• Effective early warning includes:
IDENTIFYING THE HAZARD AND ASSESSING ITS RISK
• Effective early warning needs:
TO BECOME PART OF A MANAGEMENT INFO SYSTEM FOR DECISION MAKING
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THREE SEGMENTS:
• FORECAST AND PREDICTION SEGMENT– Forecast of extreme events
• WARNING SEGMENT– Information of possible impacts on people and
infrastructure– Involves reccommendations
• REACTION SEGMENT– Ensures that information is correctly
understood
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INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL 2010 (June 20 to 26)
WATER DISASTER PREVENTION(with emphasis on floods and droughts)
•Hydrometeorological forecasts in disaster prevention•Basics in hazards, vulnerability and risk assessment•Drought prediction and evaluation methods•Impact of catchment characteristics and land use on water regime•Early warning systems•Role of civil society in emergency and legislation•Case studies and field trips (Prague flooding system) (Details: www.eu-workshop.czu.cz)
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Pillar Activities of the Flood/Drought Centre
Research
Informationnetworking
Training& Capacity
buildingNetwork
Knowledge
Curriculum
ParticipationResults/Outcomes
Data/Information
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SUMMARY• to apply theory of hydrological extremes to practical
events• to learn new methods of floods and droughts hazard
assessment• to learn new tools for collecting, processing and
implementing hydrological data• to combine different methods of mitigation and
recovery from flood and drought disasters• to introduce early warning to civil society when water
disasters occur
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SUMMARY-continued
At least,one week WDP 2010 Workshop in Prague, the Czech Republic is in English including a half week individual selfstudy in home country.
It is designed for 25 to 30 students (BSc/MSc) in Land and Water or related programmes.
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Workshop on Water Disaster Prevention
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION