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Page 1: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the
Page 2: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

2

Economic Freedom of the World - Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the The Role of Government in the Modern Growth EconomyModern Growth Economy

Presentation toPresentation to Institute X Institute X LOCATIONLOCATION DATEDATE PRESENTERPRESENTER PRESENTING InstitutePRESENTING Institute

Page 3: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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What causes Economic Success?What causes Economic Success? What are the practices of economically What are the practices of economically

successful countries and regions?successful countries and regions? How can countries and provinces achieve How can countries and provinces achieve

success and avoid failuresuccess and avoid failure What are the implications of successful What are the implications of successful

strategies?strategies?

The crucial questions for economic The crucial questions for economic managementmanagement

Page 4: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

Why do some countries succeed Why do some countries succeed and others fail?and others fail?

Page 5: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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A Tale of Two CountriesA Tale of Two Countries

Hong Kong and VenezuelaHong Kong and Venezuela From poor to richFrom poor to rich From rich to poorFrom rich to poor

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Hong Kong and Venezuela…1950Hong Kong and Venezuela…1950

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

U.S.Dollars

perperson

Hong Kong

Venezuela

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Hong Kong and Venezuela todayHong Kong and Venezuela today

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

U.S.Dollars

perperson

Hong Kong

Venezuela

Page 8: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Hong Kong and Venezuela Hong Kong and Venezuela comparedcompared

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Income per person

Venezuela 1950

Venezuela Today

Hong Kong 1950

Hong Kong Today

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Hong Kong and Venezuela Hong Kong and Venezuela population growth 1950 - presentpopulation growth 1950 - present

0 1 2 3 4 5

Population Multiple relative to 1950

Venezuela

Hong Kong

Page 10: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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What differences caused Hong What differences caused Hong Kong to become Rich and Kong to become Rich and Venezuela to become Poor?Venezuela to become Poor?

Population - evidently notPopulation - evidently not Natural Resources - not likelyNatural Resources - not likely Ability to afford infrastructure - certainly not Ability to afford infrastructure - certainly not Policy differences - a possible source of the Policy differences - a possible source of the

differencedifference

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The Attitude of Success…economic The Attitude of Success…economic freedom in Hong Kong and freedom in Hong Kong and VenezuelaVenezuela

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1999

Venezuela

Hong Kong

Page 12: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Hong Kong’s Freedom Advantage Hong Kong’s Freedom Advantage over Venezuelaover Venezuela

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

cen

tag

e ad

van

tag

e

1970 1999

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The story of Hong Kong and The story of Hong Kong and Venezuela is repeated around the Venezuela is repeated around the globeglobe

Motivated the creation of the Economic Motivated the creation of the Economic Freedom of the World Project to examine Freedom of the World Project to examine whether there were empirical regularities that whether there were empirical regularities that could be found between economic freedom could be found between economic freedom and other characteristics of societies and other characteristics of societies including economic growth and development including economic growth and development

Page 14: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Economic Freedom of the World Economic Freedom of the World ProjectProject

15 year project examining policies of 15 year project examining policies of successful and unsuccessful regionssuccessful and unsuccessful regions

Led by Professor Milton Friedman, Rose Led by Professor Milton Friedman, Rose Friedman and Michael WalkerFriedman and Michael Walker

Involved 60 of the worlds top economists, Involved 60 of the worlds top economists, four of whom received the Nobel Prizefour of whom received the Nobel Prize

Objective: find a way to measure economic Objective: find a way to measure economic freedom and explore the connection freedom and explore the connection between it and other attributesbetween it and other attributes

Page 15: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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What does Economic FreedomWhat does Economic FreedomMean?Mean?

The right to pursue voluntary acts of trade The right to pursue voluntary acts of trade and exchange without interference by and exchange without interference by government or others via force or fraudgovernment or others via force or fraud

The ability to access an impartial judiciary for The ability to access an impartial judiciary for the enforcement of property rights the enforcement of property rights

The right of citizens to keep the majority of The right of citizens to keep the majority of the income they earnthe income they earn

Page 16: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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What is the Index of Economic What is the Index of Economic Freedom?Freedom?

An attempt to identify the factors which make An attempt to identify the factors which make a country economically freea country economically free

A compendium of 21 freedom factors based A compendium of 21 freedom factors based on objective data or independent surveyson objective data or independent surveys

A ranking of 123 countries according to the A ranking of 123 countries according to the extent to which they are freeextent to which they are free

Now a collaboration of 55 Institutes in 55 Now a collaboration of 55 Institutes in 55 different countriesdifferent countries

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The Index measures 21 factorsThe Index measures 21 factors which are practical indicatorswhich are practical indicators of the extent to which consentingof the extent to which consenting adults can engage in adults can engage in Capitalist Acts. Capitalist Acts.

It is the broadest, most objective It is the broadest, most objective measure of economic freedom measure of economic freedom ever constructed.ever constructed.

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The components of The Economic The components of The Economic Freedom IndexFreedom Index

Size of GovernmentSize of Government Structure of the EconomyStructure of the Economy Monetary and Price StabilityMonetary and Price Stability Freedom to Use Alternative CurrenciesFreedom to Use Alternative Currencies Legal Structure and Property RightsLegal Structure and Property Rights International ExchangeInternational Exchange Freedom of Exchange in Capital MarketsFreedom of Exchange in Capital Markets

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The Top ElevenThe Top Eleven

7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6

Hong Kong

Singapore

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Australia

Ireland

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Argentina

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The Next TenThe Next Ten

7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

Bolivia

Canada

Finland

Austria

Chile

Denmark

Germany

Iceland

Belgium

El Salvador

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How does Canada’s level of How does Canada’s level of Economic Freedom compare with Economic Freedom compare with the ten most free countries and the ten most free countries and with NAFTA trading partners? with NAFTA trading partners?

Page 23: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Canada and the Top Ten Average

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Size of Government

Structure of the Economy

Monetary Policy

Alternative Currencies

Legal Structure/Property Rights

International Exchange

Capital and Financial Markets

Total

Score (out of 10)

Canada Average of Top Ten

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The United States, Canada and Mexico

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Size of Government

Structure of the Economy

Monetary Policy

Alternative Currencies

Legal Structure/Property Rights

International Exchange

Capital and Financial Markets

Total

Score (out of 10)

Canada United States Mexico

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Economic Freedom Spectrum

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

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World Average: Economic World Average: Economic FreedomFreedom

6.2

5.35.2

5.3

5.5

6.2

6.4

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Economic World Average: Economic Freedom, adjusted for populationFreedom, adjusted for population

5.98

5.31

5.7 5.696.05

6.576.87

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

5.8

6.3

6.8

7.3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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World Average: Government World Average: Government Consumption as a Percentage of Consumption as a Percentage of GDPGDP

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Transfers as a World Average: Transfers as a percentage of GDPpercentage of GDP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Publicly owned World Average: Publicly owned assets as a percentage of GDPassets as a percentage of GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Existence of Price World Average: Existence of Price ControlsControls

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997 1999

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World Average: Right to own World Average: Right to own Foreign CurrencyForeign Currency

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1997 1999

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World Average: Right to Own World Average: Right to Own Private PropertyPrivate Property

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Page 34: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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World Average: Tariff RateWorld Average: Tariff Rate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Page 35: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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World Average: Private Ownership World Average: Private Ownership of Banksof Banks

0

20

40

60

80

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Page 36: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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World Average: Right to have World Average: Right to have Capital Transactions with Capital Transactions with Foreigners Foreigners

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Page 37: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Population of the world, by Population of the world, by economic freedom ratingeconomic freedom rating

Rating (1999) Population (%)9.0-10.0 9,850,700 0.18%8.0-8.99 458,362,700 8.18%7.0-7.99 651,094,287 11.62%6.0-6.99 716,439,060 12.79%5.0-5.99 2,619,445,230 46.76%4.0-4.99 605,938,700 10.82%3.0-3.99 175,429,000 3.13%2.0-2.99 78,138,000 1.39%1.0-1.99 44,464,000 0.79%0.0-0.99 - 0.0%Unrated countries 490,646,634 8.76%

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The top ten and how they got thereThe top ten and how they got there

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

Rank

Hong KongSingaporeNew ZealandUnited KingdomUnited StatesAustraliaIrelandSwitzerlandLuxembourgNetherlands

Page 39: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Some Asian CountriesSome Asian Countries

1

21

41

61

81

101

121

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Ran

k

Japan

Malaysia

Indonesia

Taiwan

China

Page 40: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Countries which have increased or Countries which have increased or decreased the level of Economic decreased the level of Economic FreedomFreedom

Page 41: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Countries having significant Countries having significant improvement since 1970improvement since 1970

1

21

41

61

81

101

121

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Rank

Chile

Peru

Argentina

Philippines

Portugal

United Kingdom

New Zealand

Ireland

Mauritius

Page 42: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Countries with significant Countries with significant deterioration since 1970deterioration since 1970

1

21

41

61

81

101

121

RANK

Venezuela, Rep.

Madagascar

Syria

Congo, Dem. R.

Nigeria

Pakistan

South Africa

Brazil

Colombia

Iran

Page 43: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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The Race Toward Capitalism in the Eastern The Race Toward Capitalism in the Eastern and Former Soviet Transitional Economiesand Former Soviet Transitional Economies

Page 44: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Eastern and Former Soviet Transition Economies

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Romania

Russia

Ukraine

Albania

Poland

China

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Slovakia

Lithuania

Czech Rep

Latvia

Hungary

Economic Fredom Index

1999

1990

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Why is Economic Freedom Why is Economic Freedom Important?Important?

Economic rights are fundamental rights in the Economic rights are fundamental rights in the sense that without them there can be no sense that without them there can be no political freedom or civil freedomspolitical freedom or civil freedoms

They are a prerequisite for growth and They are a prerequisite for growth and developmentdevelopment

They are a prerequisite for broader human They are a prerequisite for broader human developmentdevelopment

Page 46: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Per

Cap

ita In

com

e, $

US

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Per Capita Income and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 47: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Economic Freedom and Affluence

R2 = 0.5849

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0 2 4 6 8 10

Economic Freedom Rating

Real G

DP

Per

Pers

on

(P

PP

$)

1998 .

Page 48: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

48

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Growth in Real per Capita GDP and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 49: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Growth of Real Per Capita Output in the 1990s of Growth of Real Per Capita Output in the 1990s of Countries That Improved the Most Since 1980Countries That Improved the Most Since 1980..

4.5

2.6

3.6

1.0

3.1

0.4

1.81.21.7

0

2

4

6

8

Argentina(+55)

Bolivia(+73)

ElSalvador

(+70)

Mauritius(+35)

NewZealand

(+20)

Peru (+70) Philippines(+31)

Costa Rica(+20)

Iceland(+34)

Countries in the Top 40 That Improved by 20 or More Places Since 1980

(Ranking improvement in parentheses.)

Rea

l GD

P G

row

th R

ate,

199

0s

Page 50: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

50

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Luxembourg

United States

Switzerland

Singapore

Australia

Netherlands

Ireland

Hong Kong

United Kingdom

New Zealand

Income (per person) of the Top Ten

Page 51: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Russia

Gabon

Romania

Algeria

Syria

Pap. New Guinea

Congo, Dem. R.

Guinea-Bissau

Malawi

Sierra Leone

Income (per person) of the Bottom Ten

Page 52: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Of course capitalism works to Of course capitalism works to boost economic outcomes ...…Butboost economic outcomes ...…ButWhat about Human Development? What about Human Development?

Do countries have to choose Do countries have to choose between economic development between economic development and community values and social and community values and social development? development?

Page 53: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Hum

an D

evel

opm

ent

Inde

x (o

ut o

f 1)

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

UN Human Development IndexRating by Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 54: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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Economic Freedom and Human Development

R2 = 0.3316

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Economic Freedom Rating

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Hum

an

Dev

elop

men

t Ind

ex

Page 55: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

55

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Yea

rs

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Life Expectancy at Birth, 1998, and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 56: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

1998 Adult Illiteracy Rate, % of population by Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 57: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

57

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Hum

an P

over

ty I

ndex

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Human Poverty Index and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 58: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

per

1,00

0 liv

e bi

rths

(1

998)

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Infant Mortality and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 59: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

59

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% u

nder

wei

ght (

90-9

6)

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Child Malnutrition and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 60: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

60

50556065707580859095

100

% o

f po

pula

tion

with

ac

cess

Bottom20%

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

Top 20%

Access to Health Care and Economic Freedom Quintile

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 61: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

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05

101520253035404550

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Income Inequality

Poorest 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% Richest 20%

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Percent of income accruing to the

Page 62: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 2 4 6 8 10

Underground Economy % of GDPUnderground Economy % of GDP

Bolivia

Guatemala

Honduras

Panama

Peru

Outlier Countries :

Big

ger

Und

ergr

ound

Eco

nom

y

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 63: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

63

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Intellectual Property Rights

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Mor

e In

telle

ctua

l Pro

pert

y R

ight

s

Page 64: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

64

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Kg

pe

r h

ec

tare

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Economic Freedom and Cereal Yield

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 65: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

65

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sc

ore

ou

t o

f 1

0

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Economic Freedom and the Corruption Perception Index

Page 66: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

66

Economic Freedom Versus Corruption

R2 = 0.4579

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Economic Freedom Rating

Cor

rupt

ion

Rat

ing

Page 67: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

% of Population with Access to Safe Water

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

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68

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Political Stability

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

Page 69: 2 Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the Modern Growth Economy Economic Freedom of the World - The Role of Government in the

69

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Labour Productivity(Non-Residential Capital Per Worker, 1990)

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Research & Development as a % of GDP (Average 1985-1998)

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

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71

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Political Rights & Civil Liberties

Political Rights Civil liberties

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Ingredients in the growth recipe: Ingredients in the growth recipe: evidence from 123 Countriesevidence from 123 Countries

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73

Size of Government and GrowthSize of Government and Growth

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1st Quintile2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

5thQuintile

Larger Government..............Smaller Government

GrowthUS

Can

Spain

Hong Kong

Mexico

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0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1stQuintile

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuartile

5thQuintile

Less Private...…….........More Private

Growth

Private Ownership and GrowthPrivate Ownership and Growth

Can US

Hong Kong

China

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Government Transfers and Government Transfers and Subsidies and GrowthSubsidies and Growth

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1stQuintile

2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4thQuintile

5thQuintile

Fewer Subsidies.............More Subsidies

Growth

US

Can

Hong Kong Mexico

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Growth and the Friendliness of the Growth and the Friendliness of the Tax System (tax rates and brackets)Tax System (tax rates and brackets)

0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%

1st Quintile 2ndQuintile

3rdQuintile

4th Quintile 5th Quintile

Less Friendly...……………….......More Friendly

Can US

China

Hong KongMexico

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Growth and Taxes on TradeGrowth and Taxes on Trade

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1st Quintile 2ndQuintile

3rd Quintile 4th Quintile 5th Quintile

Lower Taxes............Higher Taxes

Growth

Can

Hong KongChina

MexicoUS

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78

Some extensions of the Economic Some extensions of the Economic Freedom of the World ProjectFreedom of the World Project

Marketization indices for sub-national Marketization indices for sub-national jurisdictionsjurisdictions

The Fraser Institute Index for North AmericaThe Fraser Institute Index for North America The National Institute for Economic Research The National Institute for Economic Research

(Beijing) Marketization index for the 31 (Beijing) Marketization index for the 31 Chinese ProvincesChinese Provinces

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Freetheworld.com

Economic Freedom of the Economic Freedom of the ProvincesProvinces Learning from international experience with Learning from international experience with

the Economic Freedom indexthe Economic Freedom index Growth and affluence are options and are not Growth and affluence are options and are not

predeterminedpredetermined Recognize that the provinces have very Recognize that the provinces have very

different selections from the range of policy different selections from the range of policy optionsoptions

Policy settings generally determine the Policy settings generally determine the perimeters for wealth creation activityperimeters for wealth creation activity

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Freetheworld.com

Economic Freedom of the Economic Freedom of the ProvincesProvinces

Government OperationsGovernment Operations TakingsTakings Interprovincial sectorInterprovincial sector Labour Market RegulationLabour Market Regulation

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Freetheworld.com

Government OperationsGovernment Operations

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82

Total Government Consumption as a Percentage

of GDP

0 10 20 30

AB

ON

BC

SK

QUE

MB

NS

PEI

NWF

NB

1996

1995

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Freetheworld.com

Total Liabilities and Net Worth of Government Business Enterprises and Debt Guarentees as a Percentage of GDP

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

QC

NB

MB

NF

SK

NS

AB

ON

BC

PE

Percentage of GDP

1994

1993

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84

Provincial Regulatory Spending as a Percentage of Business Revenue

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

AB

ON

MB

BC

NS

PEI

QUE

SK

NB

NWF

Percent

1995-961993-94

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Freetheworld.com

TakingsTakings

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Freetheworld.com

Transfers and Subsidies as a Percentage of GDP

0 5 10 15

AB

NS

ON

MB

NB

SK

BC

PEI

QUE

NWF

Percentage of GDP

1995

1994

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Freetheworld.com

Direct Corporate Taxes as a Percentage of Corporate Profits

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

NB

SK

NWF

PEI

ON

AB

NS

QUE

MB

BC

1997

1996

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Freetheworld.com

Top Marginal Tax Rate (Federal and Provincial Combined)

0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56

AB

NS

PEI

MB

NB

ON

SK

QUE

NWF

BC

1997

1996

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Freetheworld.com

Labour Market RegulationsLabour Market Regulations

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Freetheworld.com

Annual Minimum Wage as a Ratio of Per Capita GDP

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

NWF

QUE

NS

PEI

NB

BC

ON

MB

SK

AB

1996

1995

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Economic Freedom of the Economic Freedom of the ProvincesProvinces

Overall Provincial RankingOverall Provincial Ranking

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Freetheworld.com

AB

ON

PE

SK

MB

NS

NB

BC

QC

NF

81

89

94

98*

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Provincial Economic Freedom

81

85

89

93

94

95

98*

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Freetheworld.com

1998 Estimate of Provincial Economic Freedom Index

0 2 4 6 8 10

AB

ON

PE

SK

MB

NS

NB

BC

QC

NF

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94

The Relationship Between Relative Economic Freedom and Relative Per Capita GDP

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Relative Per Capital GDP (by Province)

Rel

ativ

e P

rovi

nci

al M

arke

tizat

ion

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ConclusionsConclusions Growth and development are choices rather Growth and development are choices rather

than predeterminedthan predetermined The ingredients of the growth recipe can be The ingredients of the growth recipe can be

determined by observing the policies of determined by observing the policies of successful jurisdictionssuccessful jurisdictions

The key to high economic performance is The key to high economic performance is providing economic freedom to citizensproviding economic freedom to citizens

The key to progressive social and human The key to progressive social and human development is economic freedomdevelopment is economic freedom

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96

The End……phew!The End……phew!

www.freetheworld.comwww.freetheworld.com

www.fraserinstitute.cawww.fraserinstitute.ca

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Other Slides of Interest Other Slides of Interest

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98

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

Aid as a % of GNP

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

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99

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bottom 20% 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Top 20%

CHILD LABOUR (% of children aged 10-14 active in the labour force)

Least Free…………...Most FreeLeast Free…………...Most Free

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Next – Scores in Each Area Next – Scores in Each Area Adjusted by PopulationAdjusted by Population

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101

World Average: Economic World Average: Economic Freedom, adjusted for populationFreedom, adjusted for population

5.98

5.31

5.7 5.696.05

6.576.87

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

5.8

6.3

6.8

7.3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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102

World Average: Government World Average: Government Consumption as a Percentage of Consumption as a Percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationGDP, adjusted for population

024

68

101214

1618

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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103

World Average: Transfers as a World Average: Transfers as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationpopulation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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104

World Average: Publicly owned World Average: Publicly owned assets as a percentage of GDP, assets as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationadjusted for population

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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105

World Average: Existence of Price World Average: Existence of Price Controls, adjusted for populationControls, adjusted for population

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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106

World Average: Right to own World Average: Right to own Foreign Currency, adjusted for Foreign Currency, adjusted for populationpopulation

0

1

2

3

4

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1970

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107

World Average: Tariff Rate, World Average: Tariff Rate, adjusted for populationadjusted for population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1980

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108

World Average: Right to have World Average: Right to have Capital Transactions with Capital Transactions with Foreigners, adjusted for populationForeigners, adjusted for population

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Countries with ranks in 1980

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109

World Average: Government World Average: Government Consumption as a Percentage of Consumption as a Percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationGDP, adjusted for population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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110

World Average: Transfers as a World Average: Transfers as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationpopulation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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111

World Average: Publicly owned World Average: Publicly owned assets as a percentage of GDP, assets as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for populationadjusted for population

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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112

World Average: Existence of Price World Average: Existence of Price Controls, adjusted for populationControls, adjusted for population

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Right to own World Average: Right to own Foreign Currency, adjusted for Foreign Currency, adjusted for populationpopulation

0

1

2

3

4

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Tariff Rate, World Average: Tariff Rate, adjusted for populationadjusted for population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

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World Average: Right to have World Average: Right to have Capital Transactions with Capital Transactions with Foreigners, adjusted for populationForeigners, adjusted for population

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999