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GLOBAL TRENDS IN SCHOLARLY PUBLISHINGSociety for Scholarly Publishing2009 Annual Meeting
Keith CollierVP & General Manager, ScholarOneThomson Reuters
TOPICS
• Scholarly & Scientific Research at Thomson Reuters
• Global Peer Review Trends
• Global Research Evaluation Trends
• What does it mean?
THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH
Discovery
• Web of Knowledge
• Web of Science
Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration
• ScholarOne
• EndNote
Performance Evaluation
• Essential Science Indicators
• Journal Citation Reports (impact factors
• Research Services
SearchesDownloads
SubmissionsAcceptances
Citations# of Papers
Key Metrics
THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH
Discovery
• Web of Knowledge
• Web of Science
Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration
• ScholarOne
• EndNote
Performance Evaluation
• Essential Science Indicators
• Journal Citation Reports (impact factors
• Research Services
SearchesDownloads
SubmissionsAcceptances
Citations# of Papers
Key Metrics
TOTAL ORIGINAL SUBMISSIONS THROUGH SCHOLARONE BY COUNTRY (2002 – 2008)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
SUBMISSION GROWTH BY COUNTRY (TOP 17)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
United States
China
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
Italy
Canada
India
France
Spain
Australia
Turkey
Korea, Republic of
Taiwan
Netherlands
Brazil
Sweden
245 446 694 1074 1554 2155 2805# of Journals
(sample size)
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
43%
10%
10%
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%3%
2002
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
Italy
France
Canada
Spain
China
Australia
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
42%
10%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%4%
2003
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
Italy
France
Canada
China
Spain
Australia
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
39%
10%10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%4%
2004
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
China
Italy
Canada
France
Spain
Korea, Republic of
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
37%
10%
10%
9%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%5%
2005
United States
United Kingdom
China
Japan
Germany
Italy
Canada
France
Spain
Turkey
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
36%
12%
10%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%5%
2006
United States
China
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
Italy
Canada
India
France
Spain
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
37%
13%10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%4%
2007
United States
China
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
India
Italy
Canada
France
Spain
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
38%
15%
10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
2008
United States
China
United Kingdom
Japan
India
Germany
Canada
Italy
Australia
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN
36%
15%10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%4%
2009 YTD
United States
China
United Kingdom
Japan
India
Germany
Canada
Italy
Spain
France
AVG ANNUAL SUBMISSION GROWTH (2002 – 2008)JOURNALS WITH AT LEAST 5,000 SUBMISSIONS IN 2008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Iran, Islamic
Republic of
China India Taiwan Turkey Brazil Greece Poland Korea, Republic of
Australia
EXPECT MORE SUBMISSIONS RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES FROM THESE “HOT SPOTS”
PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
34%
18%10%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%4%
2009 Projected
United States
China
United Kingdom
India
Japan
Germany
Canada
Italy
Turkey
Australia
PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
31%
21%9%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%5%
2010 Projected
United States
China
United Kingdom
India
Japan
Germany
Turkey
Taiwan
Canada
Italy
PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
28%
25%
9%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%4%
2011 Projected
United States
China
India
United Kingdom
Japan
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Turkey
Taiwan
Germany
Canada
PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
29%
24%10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%4%
2012 Projected
China
United States
India
United Kingdom
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Turkey
Taiwan
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Germany
PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
32%
21%10%
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%3%
2013 Projected
China
United States
India
Iran, Islamic Republic of
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Turkey
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Brazil
TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS PROJECTED CHANGE OVER 10 YEARS…
32%
21%10%
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%4% 3%
2013 Projected
China
United States
India
Iran, Islamic Republic of
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Turkey
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Brazil
42%
10%10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%5%
4%
2003
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
Italy
France
Canada
China
Spain
Australia
2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOSCOUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOSCOUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS
PEER REVIEW CHALLENGES COMING?COUNTRIES WITH GROWING SUBMISSIONS AND LOWER ACCEPTANCE RATES
SCIENTIFIC & SCHOLARLY RESEARCH’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH
Discovery
• Web of Knowledge
• Web of Science
Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration
• ScholarOne
• EndNote
Performance Evaluation
• Essential Science Indicators
• Journal Citation Reports
• Research Services
SearchesDownloads
SubmissionsAcceptances
Citations# of Papers
Key Metrics
ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF PAPERS (1998 – 2008)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS (1998 – 2008)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 50 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SW
ITZ
ER
LA
ND
US
A
DE
NM
AR
K
NE
TH
ER
LA
ND
S
SC
OT
LA
ND
SW
ED
EN
EN
GLA
ND
FIN
LA
ND
CA
NA
DA
BE
LG
IUM
GE
RM
AN
Y
AU
ST
RIA
ISR
AE
L
NO
RW
AY
FR
AN
CE
WA
LE
S
AU
ST
RA
LIA
ITA
LY
IRE
LA
ND
NO
RT
H IR
ELA
ND
NE
W Z
EA
LA
ND
JA
PA
N
SP
AIN
HU
NG
AR
Y
CH
ILE
PO
RT
UG
AL
SIN
GA
PO
RE
SO
UT
H A
FR
ICA
GR
EE
CE
AR
GE
NT
INA
CZ
EC
H R
EP
UB
LIC
TH
AIL
AN
D
ME
XIC
O
SLO
VE
NIA
PO
LA
ND
SO
UT
H K
OR
EA
VE
NE
ZU
ELA
TA
IWA
N
BR
AZ
IL
SLO
VA
KIA
BU
LG
AR
IA
CR
OA
TIA
PE
OP
LE
S R
CH
INA
IND
IA
RU
SS
IA
MO
RO
CC
O
EG
YP
T
MA
LA
YS
IA
TU
RK
EY
RO
MA
NIA
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN (THOMSON REUTERS PERSPECTIVE)
• Challenges for Peer Review
– Increasing submissions, but from countries with lower acceptance rates and lower citations
• Focus on Regional Science
– More visibility and use of regional journals
• Internationalize Tools & Services
THE TWO-WAY STREET: THOMSON REUTERS
• International version of tools
– Web of Science
– EndNote
– ScholarOne
• Expanded Regional Coverage in WoS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total WoS 8,834 9,109 9,337 10,755 11,035
Growth +275 (3%) +228 (2.5%)
+1,418 (15%)
+280 (2.6%)
PERCENT OF WORLD PAPERS FOR OVERALL COUNTRY IN 1 YEAR PERIODS CITED TO PRESENT