2-21-17 boe pres for board - barrington 220 · 2017. 2. 27. · t 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2000-01...

KASARDA Demographic Study

OVERVIEW

HistoricalandCurrentStatus:EnrollmentPatternsandDeterminants

KasardaAssumptionsandMethodology

ForecastsandEnrollmentChanges

Projections

SummaryandDiscussion

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T

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17

Gd.K-5 Gd.9-12 Gd.6-8 Column1

DistrictEnrollmentTrend GradeLevel|2000-2017

DistrictEnrollmentTrend GradeLevel|2000-2017

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0

75

150

225

300

2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17

Sp.Ed. Pre-K PrivatePlacement Column1

In 2009-10, self-contained classification changed from 50% or more instruction outside the regular classroom to 60% or more

PERM

ITS

0

75

150

225

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

HousingUnitBuildingPermits SingleFamilyDistrictWide|2000-2017

1990 2000 2010 / 15

Under 5 6% 6% 4% / 4%

Ages 5-13 13% 15% 14% / 12%

Ages 14-17 6% 7% 7% / 7%

65 and over 9% 12% 18% / 21%

%ofPopulationbyAgeDistrictWide|2000-2015(adaptedfromTable2,pg.9)

OVERVIEW




Projections


Projections are based on several factors including:

Fertility RatesFamily Sizes

Population Forecasts Household Forecasts Annual Enrollment Change ✓ Entering Kdg vs. Exiting 12 grd

✓ Transfer Migration Data

✓ Special Ed/Pre-School

KASARDAMethodology

SERIESA• Lessthancurrentlyanticipated

SERIESB•Occurascurrentlyanticipated

SERIESC•Greaterthancurrentlyanticipated

Enrollment projection assumes:

resident fertility rates remain constant

future residential development

housing turnover

immigration of families with preschool and school-age children to each attendance area

KasardaAssumptions

OVERVIEW




Projections


PopulationForecasts(Table45,page70)Village 2010* 2030** Change

2010-2030# %

Barrington 10,327 10,429 102 1.0BarringtonHills 4,209 5,060 851 20.2DeerPark 3,200 3,846 646 20.2Inverness 7,399 8,039 640 8.6LakeBarrington 4,973 5,695 722 14.5NorthBarrington 3,047 3,542 495 16.2SouthBarrington 4,565 4,657 92 2.0TowerLakes 1,283 1,442 159 12.4TOTAL 39,003 42,710 3,707 9.5

Source: * U.S. Bureau of the Census. Decennial Census of Population and Housing, 2010. ** Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission. 2030 Forecasts of Population, Households and Employment by County and Municipality. Revised September 27, 2006. “Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning 2040 Forecast of Population, Households and Employment,”

adopted on 10 October 2014.

HouseholdForecasts(Table45,page70)Village 2010* 2030** Change

2010-2030# %

Barrington 4,234 4,001 -233 -5.5BarringtonHills 1,501 1,777 276 18.4DeerPark 1,097 1,311 214 19.5Inverness 2,706 2,795 89 3.3LakeBarrington 2,252 2,220 -32 -1.4 NorthBarrington 1,066 1,291 225 21.1SouthBarrington 1,445 1,513 68 4.7 TowerLakes 439 494 55 12.5TOTAL 14,740 15,402 662 4.5

Source: * U.S. Bureau of the Census. Decennial Census of Population and Housing, 2010. ** Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission. 2030 Forecasts of Population, Households and Employment by County and Municipality. Revised September 27, 2006. “Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning 2040 Forecast of Population, Households and Employment,”

adopted on 10 October 2014.

OVERVIEW




Projections


ActualDistrictEnrollmentsvs.KasardaA,B&C|2009-2017

7500

8125

8750

9375

10000

2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17

Act.Enroll.KasardaAKasardaBKasardaC

Elementary Schools 2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

2021-2022

2022-2023

2023-2024

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

Net Chg

Series A 3,529 3,496 3,469 3,442 3,415 3,397 3,403 3,415 3,423 3,416 -113

Series B 3,659 3,710 3,756 3,790 3,809 3,802 3,788 3,788 3,787 3,788 +129

Series C 3,764 3,883 3,990 4,078 4,139 4,141 4,128 4,126 4,130 4,132 +368

Kasarda Projections (Tables70,71&72–pages104-106)

Middle Schools2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

2021-2022

2022-2023

2023-2024

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

Net Chg

Series A 2,001 1,890 1,833 1,777 1,772 1,803 1,799 1,796 1,774 1,795 -206

Series B 2,038 1,970 1,957 1,938 1,967 2,012 2,047 2,068 2,066 2,072 +34

Series C 2,064 2,021 2,035 2,045 2,105 2,179 2,249 2,297 2,308 2,309 +245


Barrington High School2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

2021-2022

2022-2023

2023-2024

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

Net Chg

Series A 2,936 2,891 2,799 2,665 2,544 2,460 2,436 2,404 2,449 2,454 -182

Series B 2,984 2,988 2,946 2,874 2,803 2,746 2,748 2,736 2,793 2,841 -143

Series C 3,019 3,057 3,051 3,014 2,979 2,945 2,970 2,985 3,075 3,165 +146


Barrington 220 Summary2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

2021-2022

2022-2023

2023-2024

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

Net Chg

Series A 8,526 8,337 8,159 7,943 8,024 7,789 7,717 7,695 7,672 7,705 -821

Series B 8,741 8,729 8,721 8,664 8,642 8,624 8,646 8,654 8,710 8,758 +17

Series C 8,906 9,022 9,140 9,202 9,290 9,331 9,414 9,475 9,580 9,673 +767


EnrollmentProjectionsbyGradeLevelSeriesB|2018-2027

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1250

2500

3750

5000

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Gd.K-5Gd.9-12Gd.6-8Column1

EnrollmentProjectionsbyDistrictSeriesB|2018-2027

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7500

7825

8150

8475

8800

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

8741 8729 87218664 8642 8624 8646 8654

87108758

Key Points About DevelopmentLocated at the northwest corner of Route 59 and Higgins Rd185 gross acres 120 buildable acresTax Increment Financing (TIF) is being sought for this development

Key Points About Development

500 multi-family and 500 single family homesApproximately 500 homes within Barrington 220 boundaries; most of them single familyApproximately 500 single family and multi-family homes, along with commercial development, are being planned in the southern portion of the development within the District 300 boundariesThere is currently no provision for a school site

= Dist 220

= Dist 300

OVERVIEW




Projections


TheeconomicdownturnisbeingreflectedinBarrington220withasignificantdeclineinsinglehousingstartsanddepressedexistinghousingmarkets(increased65andolderagedistributionashomeowners“stayput”).

Thereisnocrystalballontheeconomyasitwillaffecthousingturnovertoyoungerfamilyhouseholds.

Kasardadoesnotanticipatesignificantchangesinfertilityorfamilysizesoverthenext5years.

Kasarda Summary

Kasarda Summary (cont’d)

InpastKasardaDemographicTrendsandProjectionsreport,thedistricthasbeentrackingprimarilyontheSeriesBLevel.PlanningismovingforwardwithSeriesBonamacro-level.

Individualelementaryprojectionsarechallenginggiventhelackofpredictabilityinattendancepatternswithdistrictprograms(ChineseImmersion,SpanishDualLanguage,Choice,Petition)

Morestudentsaregraduatingthanareenteringinkindergarten,despiteincreasedin-migrationandtransfers.Inthemoreimmediatefuture,anticipatedepressedfutureenrollmentgrowth.

Continuetomonitorsmallhousingdevelopmentsthatweareawareofonanannualbasisthatwillimpactenrollmentonanindividualschool.

2-21-17 boe pres for board - barrington 220 · 2017. 2. 27. · t 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2000-01...

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