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TRANSCRIPT
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2 0 0 4AMSTERDAM
ATHENS
BEIJING
CAMBRIDGE
CHICAGO
FRANKFURT
HONG KONG
ISTANBUL
JOHANNESBURG
LONDON
LOS ANGELES
MADRID
MANILA
MELBOURNE
MILAN
MOSCOW
MUMBAI
MUNICH
NEW YORK
PARIS
SAN FRANCISCO
SÃO PAULO
SEOUL
SINGAPORE
STOCKHOLM
TEL AVIV
TOKYO
TORONTO
ZURICH
Scenario Thinking:
Planning for the Future in Times of Uncertainty
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Confidential
2 Copyright © 2004 Monitor Company Group — Confidential — GBNLW/1.6.04
Thank you to interviewees
Caspar Bowden Ann Cavoukian Richard Hunter
Bill O’Brien Richard Owens
Giuliano Zaccardelli
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Confidential
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Change is not new
“We are living in a period of most wondrous transitions....”
PRINCE ALBERT, 1851
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Change is happening more rapidly than in the past
“ …We are squarely in the midst of the most amazing upsurge of knowledge and wealth ever seen on Earth. And that trend is —for the first time in human history—irreversible”
JULIAN SIMON WIRED MAGAZINE, APRIL 1998
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Rapid change foments uncertainty and confusion
“ There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don't know We don't know.”
Donald Rumsfeld: Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing
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What Year is This?
Friends debuts
NBC “Must See TV”Thursdays
North Korea Signs No-Nuclear Agreement with US
Kremlin Accords Signed
President Clinton Signs NAFTA and GAAT
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What Year is This?
Netscape, Yahoo, Amazon.com, and Redhat Linux are founded
NASDAQ surpassed NYSE in trade volume
Oracle opens India Development Center, one of the first MNCs to do so
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What Year is This?
China criticized for human rights abuses, loses bid for 2000 Olympic Games
WTO established
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1994: Where we thought we were going
We watched NBC on Thursday nights
The world was on a road to peace
Globalization was ramping up
Corporate innovation was creating value and wealth
We were getting connected by the WWW
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2004: Where we are now
2 million TiVo subscribers
Apple’s iPodgenerates almost $2 billion of revenue
iTunes downloads exceed 100 million
Linux takes 15% of server market
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2004
Corporate governance scandals: Enron, WorldCom, Martha Stewart
Bush Doctrine
US waging War on Iraq & Terrorism
North Korea threatens war over possible sanctions
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2004
Rise of China as economic super-powerStrengthening of the EU and EuroEra of offshoring and outsourcing
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2004: Where we areUS power and legitimacy are challenged
Terrorism is a global concern
Open source is thriving in corporations
New technologies are threatening established systems
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A Change In the Nature of Change
From accelerating and optimistic… to chaotic and anxious
From living through a transition… to living with messy uncertainty
From “shooting the rapids”… to being “lost at sea”
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Wharton Research: Executives feel their organizations do not devote sufficient resources to managing uncertainty
InsufficientResources
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Executives score 3.21
SufficientResources
Doug Randall and Paul Schoemaker, Wharton
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The perils of ignoring driving forces
IBM Projections for PCs: The $300+ Billion Forecast
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Multiple Futures, not Predictions
+10%-10%
Forecast PlanningPlanning for One Future
Knowns
TODAY
Scenario PlanningPlanning for Any Future
Knowns & Uncertainties
TODAY
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Basketball Video
• There will be two teams• Please count how many passes the WHITE
team completes
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Perception Matters
Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are
the olny iprmoetnt tihng is that the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae.
The rset can be a total mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm.
Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed erveylteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.
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Scenario Rules of Thumb
Scenario thinking helps us overcome cognitive biases and make better decisions#1: Missing the Gorilla
#2: Overconfidence
#3: Acting on Untested Assumptions
#4: Thinking Inside the Box
#5: Singularity of Perspective
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Different Approaches to Grappling with the Future
Solving Uncertainty: Researching, forecasting, predicting, systems analysis, aligning constituents
vs.
Revealing Uncertainty: Dialoging, conversing, learning, imagining, finding unique perspectives
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The Power of Scenarios
Revealing Uncertainty:
Communicating what’s known and unknownImagining possibilities rather than known probabilitiesUncovering motivations rather than current behaviorExperimenting rather than placing large bets
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TECHNOLOGYACCELERATION
AND CONVERGENCE
GLOBALIZATION
PERSONALIZATION
LAW
Four Forces of Change
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Technology Acceleration and Convergence
We’re becoming more connected, more networked and more vulnerable
TECHNOLOGYACCELERATION
AND CONVERGENCE
Proliferation of mobile devices
Progress toward quantum computation
Rise of open source
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Technology Acceleration and Convergence
TECHNOLOGYACCELERATION
AND CONVERGENCE
Presidential Palace, Baghdad
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Globalization
Interconnected and interdependent global economies create great wealth and unforeseen vulnerabilities
GLOBALIZATIONInterdependent markets
Expansion of outsourcing and offshoring
Decentralized corporate structures
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Globalization: Encryption Export Controls
GLOBALIZATION
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Law
The laws to keep us secure, free and protected
LAW
Heterogeneous regulatory environment
Enforcement
Commercial policies
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Law: USA PATRIOT Act
LAW
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Personalization
The logic of consumer choice is challenging our desires for privacy
PERSONALIZATION
Mass customization
One-to-one marketing
Increasing data collection practices
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Personalization: Brain Science Meets Marketing
Neuro-Marketing
PERSONALIZATION
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PERSONALIZATION
Four Forces of Change
Privacy LAW
GLOBALIZATION
TECHNOLOGYACCELERATION
AND CONVERGENCE
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What will our approach (es) to privacy be in the future?
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Informed by many driving forces: Threat of terrorism
IT industry consolidation Degree of information sharing in healthcare
Privacy enforcement Acceptance of new technology
Consistency of privacy regulation and enforcement Regulation
Internet security Next generation attitudes toward privacy
Rate of technology adoption Global IP rights and enforcement Impact of values on corporations
Focus of US foreign policy Gap between rich and poor
Fundamentalism Overall Zeitgeist and social mood
Emerging technologies Shocks and threats
Geopolitics Quantum key encryption
Increasing personalization and customization Turbulent, divided, risky world -- security issues and risk management more important
Increasing demand for corporate transparency and responsible governance Open source
Digital rights management (DRM) Labor markets
Government-funded security research
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Scenario 1: Control the Problem
Rigid boundaries are essential for defending technological and social systems from inevitable, constant attacksSecure perimeters must be drawn for business to succeed in an insecure worldCredentialing and certification are necessary for verifying identity and conducting secure transactionsPrimary motivators in this world are minimizing risks and maintaining status quo
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Scenario 2: Resist the Evil
Reactionary world; privacy is paramount and technology is not to be trustedPotential government privacy abuses seen as more threatening than terror attacksSlow uptake of privacy tools: identity management systems seen as compromisesWith little trust in institutions, many individuals actively withdraw from citizen rights and responsibilitiesHigh friction in conducting business transactions due to lockdown on data sharing
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Scenario 3: Surrender
Convenient customer solutionsOverwhelming complexity of business and security environment leaves customers looking for trusted partners Preferred vendors manage transactions in exchange for seemingly unfettered access to personal dataMassive data collection/sharing networks enable radical new servicesOne-way information transparency leaves individuals with little control over personal data – or knowledge of how information is used
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Scenario 4: Aikido
Sharing of personal data is negotiated on a case by case basisPrivacy becomes a commodity based on emerging supply and demandIndividuals make transaction decisions based on two-way information transparency Market forces and new business opportunities effectively enable a spectrum of privacy regimes, rather than one size fits allEmergence of a privacy currency
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4 Scenarios
Control the Problem AikidoResist the Evil Surrender
Is your organization planning for one of these scenarios or many?
How big a risk is it if the scenario you’re planning for doesn’t come true?
Are there opportunities for you to succeed in all scenarios?
Are some of these futures transitional and some locked-in?
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From Thinking to Acting: The Scenario Process
Continuing the conversation this afternoon…
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Generate scenarios
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Build out the causes, drivers, and logics of change
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Map out the implications of each scenario for various stakeholders
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45 Copyright © 2004 Monitor Company Group — Confidential — GBNLW/1.6.04
“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands, but in seeing
with new eyes.”
Marcel Proust
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Confidential
46 Copyright © 2004 Monitor Company Group — Confidential — GBNLW/1.6.04
Thank You
Doug RandallGlobal Business Network
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