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"TheFutureofMeteorology:Research,Design,andPractice"

FridaysFearlessForecast:Meteorologyin20Years:itisimportanttolookatthepastto

.whatwecandointhenextdecades.

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atmosphereand

related

environment

to

Changing

missions

ro ec ean proper y

Enhanceeconomiccompetiveness

Supportenvironmental

quality

(stewardship)

Fosterasustainablesociety

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M r l : A fi l wi h m l i l

dimensions,oronewithamultiplepersonalitydisorder?

Sciencevs Engineeringor

Disciplinevs Profession

or

Purevs Applied

Climatevs Weather

Oceanvs Atmosphere

Enterthesocial behavioral decisionsciences

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Sciencevs En ineerinScientistsstudytheworldasitis;engineerscreatetheworldthat

hasneverbeen. TheodorevonKrmn Assertion:

Many

current

weather

products

andservicescouldbeim rovedandnewones

developedthroughanengineeringapproach

totheir

desi n

and

realization.

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Design=problemsolvingthroughtheapplicationofscientificandmathematicalprinciples,supplementedbyempirical

techniques

and

best

practices

learned

through

experience,toachieveapracticalend

Inadditiontotheunderlyingscience,designnormallyrequiresconsiderationoftheaesthetic,functional,and

manyother

aspects

of

an

object

or

a

process,

which

usually

requ rescons era eresearc , oug ,mo e ng,interactiveadjustment,andredesign.

Meteorologyisinvolvedinproducinganddistributingtime

sens t ve

n ormat on ,w t

t e

re evant

p ys ca

systems

beinginformationgeneratingones,consistingofsensing/processing/displaydevices.

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BalanceBetweenClimateandWeather

Climatechan e chan einweatherre imes

Itsreal,

its

happening;

significant

environmental

changesunderway

andoceanresearchproducinganimbalance?? Climate

vs Weather

=

An

artificial

division

nature

is

acontinuum

Oceanvs atmosphere interactingcomponentsofone lobals stem

Astrong,

proactive

weather

enterprise

is

essential

for

adaption,copinginthefaceofenvironmentalchange

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Theimportanceofsocial economic politicaldimensions Improvethevalueofweatherinformationproductsto

theuser

Provideusers(=consumers)withinformationneededto

Governmentatalllevels

Business

and

commerce

ranspor a on

Agriculture

Homelandsecurity/Militaryoperations

Generalpublic

Sustainability mitigation,adaptation,coping/muddling

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Observation,DataAssimilation, Hurricanes

Track

Structure

Evolutionofintensity

Postlandfall

Wildfire wildfiresversusprescribedburns;managementofresources,

Environmentalquality,regionaltolocalscale(streetcanyonwinds;pollution;diseasespread) Microscale

urban

environment

re

urbanization

of

city

cores

will

lead

to

new

economic rivers

Energyproduction wind/solar,otherrenewables growthmarket;explorationforfossilfuelsineveryharsherenvironments

Challenges Resolution hardware

Interfacecharacterizationmapping,measurements;dataassimilation

Parameterization physics

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Ubiquitous

Num ero userso weat erin ormationis

becomingoverwhelming

change

from

pus to pu provi econstant y

updateddatabases+toolsforusers=users

con gureown

port o o

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Downscalin tools first eneration smart

decisionaides?

Nowcastingonthemeso andmicroscale

Wildfire

Plumespread

Interpolatemesoscalemodeloutputdowntomicro(landscape)scale;combinationofphysics,statistics,

an

;aggress ve

ver ca on va a on

Continuityindisplaysshowingpast,present,and

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Asynchronous

,

networks

Lidar tocomplement,extendradarinmany

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Refractivity

Nonmeteoro ogica targets

Aerobiology

atmospheric

analog

to

marine

io ogy

Birds/bats/insects census,migration;spreadof

Firesmokeandotherplumemonitoring

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Stabilityof

a

highly

non

linear

system

u en ap mate ange unp easant

surprises

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Forecasting

Communication

owwe o son emeso an sma er

scales? Someblendofensemblesand

s a s cs

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Flexibilityand

agility

Entrepreneuria spirit