1rf -comparing scenarios land use and fiscal impacts
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Percent of New Homes in Developed Area 37%
Percent of New Jobs in Developed Area
64%
Homes Left Abandoned
60,668
New Jobs Brought Back to Former Industrial Sites 1,551
New Paved Surfaces (Acres)
15,785
BUSINESSAS USUAL
New jobs and homes would continue to eat up rural land, leaving more vacant lots and buildings in the center city and even older first ring suburbs. Suburban towns would build new roads, utilities, parks and schools while existing infrastructure in our urban centers would be neglected and underused.
Old industrial sites would grow weeds while new factories and warehouses would spring up on the metropolitan periphery.
URBANIZED AREA
NEW HOMESNEW JOBS HOMES LEFT ABANDONED
What type of development will we see?
146 38,906 39,348
Re-development
Acres
Grow Where We’ve Already Grown
0% 100%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
WHERE DO OURSCENARIOSFALL?
Growth on Undeveloped vs. Developed Land
ALL new growth should be on undeveloped
greenfield land
ALL new growth should be on land we’ve already developed
WHERE DO OURSCENARIOSFALL?
Growth on Undeveloped vs. Developed Land
URBANIZED AREA
NEW HOMESNEW JOBS HOMES LEFT ABANDONED
Grow Where We’ve Already Grown
0% 100%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
ALL new growth should be on undeveloped
greenfield land
ALL new growth should be on land we’ve already developed
Percent of New Homes in Developed Area
66%
Percent of New Jobs in Developed Area
79%
Homes Left Abandoned
40,776
New Jobs Brought Back to Former Industrial Sites
17,087
New Paved Surfaces (Acres)
8,482
What type of development will we see?
4,298 9,956 12,073
Re-development
Acres
Some new homes and jobs would go on suburban “greenfield” sites but most new development would go in existing urban areas.
Many more jobs would go on reclaimed “brownfield” sites than in the “Business as Usual” scenario.
The increase in new paved surfaces -- roads, parking lots, rooftops -- would be about half as much as the trend.
There would be some housing rehab in the central cities -- but less than in the “city” and “village” scenarios.
SPRAWLINGSMARTER
WHERE DO OURSCENARIOSFALL?
Growth on Undeveloped vs. Developed Land
URBANIZED AREA
NEW HOMESNEW JOBS HOMES LEFT ABANDONED
Grow Where We’ve Already Grown
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
ALL new growth should be on undeveloped
greenfield land
ALL new growth should be on land we’ve already developed
A REGIONOF VILLAGES
New homes and jobs would be concentrated in Buffalo Niagara’s treasured villages as well as in urban centers of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Lockport. Most new development would still occur in existing urban centers and first-ring suburbs, taking advantage of vacant lots, parking lots and underused land.
Every home built in outlying villages would be one home not built or rehabbed in central cities. So, abandonment would be reduced but not as much as in “Back to the City.”
Percent of New Homes in Developed Area
86%
Percent of New Jobs in Developed Area
92%
Homes Left Abandoned
38,783
New Jobs Brought Back to Former Industrial Sites
15,996
New Paved Surfaces (Acres)
6,578
What type of development will we see?
2,841 8,786 2,764Acres
Re-development
0% 100%
WHERE DO OURSCENARIOSFALL?
Growth on Undeveloped vs. Developed Land
URBANIZED AREA
NEW HOMESNEW JOBS HOMES LEFT ABANDONED
Grow Where We’ve Already Grown
0% 100%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
ALL new growth should be on undeveloped
greenfield land
ALL new growth should be on land we’ve already developed
BACK TO THE CITY
Most new homes and nearly all new jobs would be focused in central cities and older suburbs -- areas already served by infrastructure. Housing abandonment would be drastically reduced compared with the other scenarios as vacant homes are rehabbed and vacant lots filled in.
Additional “impervious surfaces” -- roads, parking lots, and rooftops -- would be limited.
Reclaimed “brownfields” would host a significant share of new jobs.
Percent of New Homes in Developed Area
88%
Percent of New Jobs in Developed Area
96%
Homes Left Abandoned
15,778
New Jobs Brought Back to Former Industrial Sites
21,700
New Paved Surfaces (Acres)
3,356
What type of development will we see?
8,206 2,581 3,534Acres
Re-development
