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AdaptationAdaptationFrom assessment to actionFrom assessment to actionUNFCCC compendium on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation methods

Sonja VidicSonja VidicMeteorological and Hydrological ServiceMeteorological and Hydrological Service

Croatia Croatia

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In negotiations about climate change, In negotiations about climate change, two broad policy responses debated are two broad policy responses debated are

• mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) and • adaptation (to climate change impacts or risks). adaptation (to climate change impacts or risks).

Countries are committedCountries are committed in the UNFCCC in the UNFCCC

• to formulate and implement measures to facilitate to formulate and implement measures to facilitate adaptation (Article 4.1b), and adaptation (Article 4.1b), and

• to cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impactsto cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change (Article 4.1e). of climate change (Article 4.1e).

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First generation approachFirst generation approach: a: adaptation linked todaptation linked to

Climate scenariosClimate scenarios Future climateFuture climate and and anticipatedanticipated vulnerabilityvulnerability

More impact than adaptation oriented

Focus onFocus on::

• stabilization of greenhouse gas stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphereconcentrations in the atmosphere

• mitigation options mitigation options

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Unchanged factsUnchanged facts::

1.1. Climate change continues affecting us in the future Climate change continues affecting us in the future regardless GHG stabilizationregardless GHG stabilization

2.2. Adaptation to climate change still plays a key roleAdaptation to climate change still plays a key role3.3. Less developed, more vulnerableLess developed, more vulnerable

ProblemsProblems::

• Too abstract and uncertain Too abstract and uncertain • No reality check: hard to explain to stakeholdersNo reality check: hard to explain to stakeholders• Based only on mean changes of temperature Based only on mean changes of temperature and precipitationand precipitation• No projections or risk assessmentsNo projections or risk assessments of extreme eventsof extreme events• Lack of assessment tools/modelsLack of assessment tools/models

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Second generation approachSecond generation approach: a: adaptation linked todaptation linked to

CCurrenturrent climate variability and currentcurrent vulnerability in addition to the concern with future climate and vulnerability.

This empirical approach provides grounding in realityprovides grounding in reality

on which to base projections of future impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation.

Compendium – catalogue of methodsCompendium – catalogue of methodsprovides information on available tools and their intended use.

6COMPENDIUM OF METHODS

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Autonomous Autonomous adaptationadaptation

Planned Planned adaptationadaptation

Adaptive Adaptive capacitycapacity

• represents norepresents no consciously planned interventions consciously planned interventions• there isthere is potential to reduce negative potential to reduce negative impact of CC impact of CC oror to to moderate vulnerabilities moderate vulnerabilities

• tends to be reactive tends to be reactive • can be quite costly and can be quite costly and • can encounter somecan encounter some residual damages residual damages

• represents represents consciously planned responseconsciously planned response • considered at local, national andconsidered at local, national and iinternational scalesnternational scales • particular adaptation measures or practices, particular adaptation measures or practices, can be almost infinite in numbercan be almost infinite in number

Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity:: potential or ability of a potential or ability of a system, region or community to adaptsystem, region or community to adapt

Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents practical Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents practical means of coping with changes and uncertainties in means of coping with changes and uncertainties in climate, including variability and extremesclimate, including variability and extremes

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What do we need? What do we need?

Scientific understandingScientific understanding • Climate processesClimate processes

• Linkages between climate and societyLinkages between climate and society• Tools to model interactions between climate and society – Tools to model interactions between climate and society –

compendium of methods compendium of methods

Stakeholders involvementStakeholders involvement• Deeply involved at the level of understandingDeeply involved at the level of understanding

• Participation in research and assessment activities Participation in research and assessment activities •Use of available tools - Use of available tools - compendium of methodscompendium of methods• Funding sectorial and interdisciplinary studies Funding sectorial and interdisciplinary studies

• Recognition of benefitsRecognition of benefits

Supportive governmentSupportive governmentThat understands and facilitates all of it !!!That understands and facilitates all of it !!!

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What are limitations ? What are limitations ?

They depend on social and economic welfare !!They depend on social and economic welfare !!

Countries with economical difficulties still cope withCountries with economical difficulties still cope with

• Lack of vision and strategic planningLack of vision and strategic planning• Day-to-day policy decision makingDay-to-day policy decision making

• No continuity in project fundingNo continuity in project funding• No resources for A&V assessmentsNo resources for A&V assessments

• No stakeholder involvementNo stakeholder involvement• Lack of integrationLack of integration

at governmental level !!!at governmental level !!!

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Is Compendium useful ? Is Compendium useful ?

Yes !!! Yes !!!

Underpins scientific understanding, Underpins scientific understanding, defelopment of new methods.defelopment of new methods.

Provides tools for Provides tools for sectoral analyses.sectoral analyses.

Facilitates stakeholders involvement.Facilitates stakeholders involvement.

Supports independant research activities Supports independant research activities of interested groups.of interested groups.