сова,в1987г.–аспирантуруИнститутаАфрики ... · 4.3. k h p b z e v...

АБРАМОВА Ирина Олеговна – заместитель дирек-тора Института Африки РАН по науке, кандидатэкономических наук, доцент. В 1984 г. окончилаИнститут стран Азии и Африки при Московскомгосударственном университете им. М.В. Ломоно-сова, в 1987 г. – аспирантуру Института АфрикиРАН и защитила кандидатскую диссертацию натему «Социально-экономические проблемы урба-низации в АРЕ».

Абрамова И.О. – ведущий специалист Отделе-ния глобальных проблем и международных отно-шений РАН по проблемам экономики и народона-селения Африки. Автор более 110 научных работ,изданных в России и за рубежом, в том числе мо-

нографий «Интернет и Африка: параллельные реальности» (2001 г., всоавт.), «Арабский город на рубеже тысячелетий» (2005 г.), «Возникаю-щие» и «несостоявшиеся» государства в мировой экономике и полити-ке» (2007 г., в соавт.), «Африканская миграция: опыт системного анали-за» (2009 г.), «Germany in Africa: Reconciling Business and Development»(2009 г., в соавт.) Член Научного Совета РАН по проблемам Африки.Участница более 80 международных конференций и семинаров, про-веденных в России и за рубежом. С 1994 по 1997 гг. – приглашенныйлектор в университетах Тюбингена, Бохума, Гейдельберга (Германия) ив университете Сан-Галлен (Швейцария). В качестве эксперта СоветаЕвропы в 2004 и 2005 гг. принимала участие в конференциях и семина-рах в России и за рубежом в рамках Международной программы борь-бы с отмыванием денег и финансированием терроризма.

Абрамова И.О. с 2004 г. постоянный докладчик Международногосимпозиума по борьбе с экономическими преступлениями, проводи-мого ежегодно в г. Кембридж (Великобритания). Совместно с ученымииз России и зарубежных стран в 2005–2010 гг. организовывала и про-водила полевые исследования в ряде европейских и африканскихстран по проблемам народонаселения и международной трудовой ми-грации.

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НАСЕЛЕНИЕ АФРИКИВ НОВОЙ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ

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ISBN 978-5-91298-078-7 © , 2010.© ., 2010.© ., , 2010.

………………………………………………………… 7 1.

I

1.1.

…………………………………………………………. 111.2.

…………………………………. 401.3.

……………………………………………...... 64 2.

2.1. ………………………………………………… 95

2.2. … 1122.3.

………………………….. 139 3.

3.1. ……………………………………….. 154

3.2. XXI : …………………………………………………………. 175

3.3. …………….. 212

4. :,

4.1. : ……………………………………….. 237

4.2. ………. 257

4.3.

( ) …………………………………………………. 279 5.

5.1. : ………………………………………. 303

5.2. : ? ……………………………………... 322

5.3. ………... 3475.4.

…………………………….. 364 6. :

6.1. …………………………………………………………. 390

6.2. : ………………………………… 402

6.3. ……………... 4156.4. :

………………………………… 4286.5. 442

…………………………………………………… 459SUMMARY …………………………………………………………. 471

………………………………………………... 484

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………….. 7CHAPTER 1. The Impact on Fundamental Processes in theWorld Economy of the 21st Century upon the Transformationof the Global Model of Economic Development

1.1. Regularities in the changes of models of developmentof the world economy and the crisis of the existing modelof global development …………………………………………… 111.2. The evolvement of the renovated architecture of globalrelations and new rules of the world order ………………………. 401.3. Transition to the new global economic modeland the countries of Africa ……………………………………….. 64

CHAPTER 2. Main Trends of the Demographic Developmentof the World

2.1. Population dynamics as a part of social and economicdevelopment ……………………………………………………… 952.2. Transformation of global population models ………………... 1122.3. The birth of a new demographic model withinthe framework of transformation of the world economy ………… 139

CHAPTER 3. Africa’s New Role in the Global DemographicProcesses

3.1. Contemporary demographic indicators of developmentof African states ………………………………………………….. 1543.2. Africa’s population in the 21st century – main trends and tendencies ….……………………………………………….. 1753.3. Influence of social and demographic parameters uponthe economic growth of African countries ………………………. 212

CHAPTER 4. Process of Urbanization in Africa: Regularities,Contradictions and Prospects

4.1. The current stage of urbanization – global and regionalaspects ……………………………………………………………. 2374.2. The specifics of African urbanization as a partof the global urbanization process ……………………………….. 257

4.3. Social and economic aspects of the African urbanizationin the case of Egypt……………………………………………….. 279

CHAPTER 5. Migration of the African Population as an Elementof the Evolving New Model of the Global Economic Development

5.1. The role of migrations in the contemporary economy:A systemic analysis ………………………………………………. 3035.2. African migration – a regional issue or a global problem? …. 3225.3. African refugees and illegal migrants ……………...………... 3475.4. The role of remittances in social and economic developmentof African countries ……………………………………………… 364

CHAPTER 6. Africa’s Labor Resources: Dynamicsand Qualitative changes

6.1. Contemporary state of the global market of labor resources ... 3906.2. Integration of the world labor market under the influenceof globalization: the questions of theory …………………………. 4026.3. The labor market and employment in African countries ……. 4156.4. Unemployment and underemployment in Africa –approaches to the solution of the problem ……………………….. 4286.5. Globalisation and the human capital of Africa ……………… 442

CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………….… 459SUMMARY …………………………………………………………. 471BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………... 484

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1.3.3 2050 .

2007 2015 2025 20501 328 630 1 388 600 1 445 782 1 408 8461 169 016 1 302 535 1 447 499 1 658 270

954 642 1 137 906 1 381 693 1 984 753305 826 329 010 354 930 402 415231 627 251 567 271 227 296 885191 791 210 048 228 833 254 085142 499 136 479 128 193 107 832127 967 126 607 121 614 102 511106 535 115 756 124 695 132 27882 599 81 825 80 341 74 088

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: United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, World populationprospects 2009, Washington. P 44–48.

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2050 . --

.-

, , .

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4 Kogane Y. Long waves of economic growth. Past and future // Futures.1988. Vol 20. 5. October. P. 536.

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ru/investor/investments00014/9 ., , . « », -

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12 Joshua Cooper Ramo. The Beijing Consensus. The Foreign PolicyCentre. L., 2004.

13 Dirlik Arif. Beijing Consensus: Beijing 'Gongshi.' University of Ore-gon // www.en.chinaelections.org/uploadfile/200909/20090918025246335. pdf

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. 54-60.15 ., . : , -

// , 2004, 8.. 54-60.

16 . . .: . . 1996. .132.17 .

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18 Benhabib S. Reclaiming Universalism:Negotiating Republican Self-Determination and Cosmopolitan Norms/ Berkeley, CA. 2005. P. 32.

19 .: . , ? .,2002.

20 http://www.kremlin.ru/appears/2008/10/08/1619_type63374type63377type82634_207422.shtml

21 UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2010. N.Y. and Geneva, 2010.. 438-440.

22 : UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2010. N.Y.and Geneva, 2010. . 434.

23 : 2020 . ., 2009. . 107.24 Ponce S. The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy:

Horizon 2050. Paris:CEP// Working Paper N 16. 2006. P. 64-65.25 : 2020 . . 64-65.26 UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2010. N.Y. and Geneva, 2010.

. 424.27 The Mutual Review of Development Effectiveness in Africa: Promise

and Performance. OECD. 2010. P. 13.28 Ibid. P. 434.29 CNUCED. World Investment Report 2008. N.Y. and Geneva, 2008.

P. 13.30 UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2010. N.Y. and Geneva, 2010.

. VIII.31 Ibid. P. 10.32 Ibid. P. 11.33 Ibid. P. 12-13.34 Ibid. P. 90-126.35 . : -

// . 2007. 2. . 7-10.36 CNUCED. World Investment Report 2009. P. I.37 UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2010. N.Y. and Geneva, 2010.

. 374-375.38 Ibidem.39 Ibid. P. 374-375.40 Ibid. P. 375, 377.41 http://www.unctad.org/sections/dite_dir/docs/wir2010_regionalslides_

asia%20_en.pdf42 http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/wir2010_en.pdf

http://www.kremlin.ru/appears/2008/10/08/1619_type63374type633

http://www.unctad.org/sections/dite_dir/docs/wir2010_regionalslides_

http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/wir2010_en.pdf

93

43 . .,2009. . 32.

44 WTO. Legal Texts: Uruguay Round Final Act. Geneva, 1995.45 Ibid. P. 10-12.46 . 17.01.2006.47 .

. 30.48 . . 31.49 ., . -

. ., 2008. . 382.50 Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming barriers: Human mo-

bility and development. UNDP. N.Y., 2009. P. 13.51 ., ,

« ».., 2009. . 20.52 Sandra Poncet. The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Econ-

omy: horizon 2050. CEPII, Working Paper. No 2006-16. P. P. 4.53 Goldman Sachs (BRICs and beyond) PricewaterhouseCoopers (The

world in 2050).54 US National Intelligence Council in 2004 – Mapping the global future

– nor the more recent Global Trends 2025: a transformed world.55 http://www.prime-tass.ru/news/0/%7B44AF97C0-7099-451A-B6E3-

7AB78015F5F6%7D.uif56 .: Sub-Saharan African and the Global Financial Crisis.

(http://ictsd.Net/i/news/tni/).57 .: World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009. N.Y., United Na-

tions, 2009. P. 110–112.58 : World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009. N.Y.,

United Nations, 2009. P. 110–112. http:// www.oecd/dac/stats59 : World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009;

http:// www.unctad.org60 Ibid. P. 374-375.61 .: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/19/content_106848 45.

htm62 .: UN. Africa Renewal. October 2008. Vol. 22. N 3. P. 6–7, 22.63 .: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_ex-

change_reserves

http://www.prime-tass.ru/news/0/%7B44AF97C0-7099-451A-B6E3-

http://ictsd.Net/i/news/tni/).

http://www.unctad.org

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/19/content_106848

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_ex-

64 .: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/19/content_10684845.htm

65 .: The Economist. 14–21 March. 2009. P. 12.66 Ibid. P. 99.67 .: http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/031809.htm68 .: http://www.mbendi.com/indy/ming/af/ug/p0005.htm

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/19/content_106848

http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/031809.htm

http://www.mbendi.com/indy/ming/af/ug/p0005.htm

95

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: World Population Prospects, the 2001 Revision. New York: UN.2001; A. Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD,2001. P. 34-35.

2.2.1 . ,, , ,

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,, , , -

4,6 2005–2010 . 2,5 2045–

2050 . , -

118

, 2050 . 2,8 . ,

,,

-.

-, , , , ,

2009–2050 . 828 -, 2 -

2009 . 2,8 2050 . --

2000–2005 ., 2050 . - 3,9 . -

2050 . 10,6 , 2,7 , ,

(7,9 ). , -

, , , , 70%

.

2.2.2

,

( )2050 .

1950 . 1990 . 2009 .-

- -

2 535 5 295 6 828 9 191 11 858 2 666814 1 149 1 229 1 245 1 218 –27

1 722 4 146 5 599 7 946 10 639 2 693

119

( )2050 .

1950 . 1990 . 2009 .-

- -

200 525 843 1 742 2 794 1 052

- 1 521 3 620 4 755 6 204 7 845 1 641

224 637 1 009 1 998 3 251 1 2531 411 3 181 4 121 5 266 6 525 1 259

548 721 731 664 626 –38168 444 587 769 939 170

172 284 345 445 460 1513 27 35 49 57 8

: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

2005–2010 . - 78 , 75

, . 2045–2050 . , -

, 33 , -

1,3 . , 2005–2010 . 26% -

, , 2045–2050 . - 61%.

, 29 ,-

, 2009 2050 ., , . - 100 : -

, , 455 -; – 134 ; –

122 ; – 120 . -

120

-, -: , 56% -

45% . , 1986 . 50% -

, 2005 . 80%. , -

, -, -

, -

., , -

. 2009–2050 . - 45 , , ,

( 33 ), ( 25), ( 15 ), (

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, , , ,, , ,

). 61% . 69 , -

10 100 , 33% . 73, 1 10

, 5,4%, 76 1 0,3%

.

(), -

121

: 5,0 1965–1970 . 2,6 2005–2010 . ( . . 2.2.3). -

1965–1970 . 2,4 , -

- – 6,0 -

2,8 -.

2.2.3

, 1965–1970, 2005–2010 2045–2050 .

( )1965–1970 . 2005–2010 . 2045–2050 .

4,9 2,6 2,02,4 1,6 1,86,0 2,8 2,16,7 4,6 2,55,9 2,5 1,9

6,8 4,7 2,55,7 2,3 1,92,4 1,5 1,85,5 2,4 1,9

2,6 2,0 1,83,6 2,3 1,9


- ( . . 2.2.4). 60- -

, -, , -

. , , -

122

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, .

2.2.4,

:

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-)

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)

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%)

- 2005–

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-)

1950–1955 5,02 1965 27 511950–1955 6,15 1965 31 45

- 1960–1965 6,76 1980 16 68

1960–1965 6,8 1985 15 76

1960–1965 6,87 1980 18 68 1965–1970 7,03 1985 15 75

1980–1985 6,63 – – 91

1960–1965 7,06 1970 22 411955–1960 6,46 1960 18 42

1970–1975 7,03 1990 19 751950–1955 5,87 1965 35 401950–1955 5,67 1965 54 301955–1960 6,06 1970 18 48

1960–1965 6,19 1970 35 38

123

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)

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%)

- 2005–

2010 . % -

-)

1950–1955 6,49 1965 16 46- 1960–1965 5,97 1965 29 40

1960–1965 5,49 1965 33 441955–1960 6,82 1970 39 36

1960–1965 5,77 1965 28 401955–1960 4,09 1960 31 561955–1960 3,53 1960 41 52

1955–1960 6,33 1970 18 571960–1965 6,51 1965 27 411960–1965 6,97 1965 29 44


-. , -

-.

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, , -

– , 20% 15 .

, 2005–2010 . ,

, .

124

., -

, ,

-.

. 76%.

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. . 2.2.5).

a 2.2.5

(%)

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2003 63,1 56,1 19,7 15,5 8,5 7,01999 67,4 56,1 8,6 9,4 16,5 11,3

125

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-

-

-

-

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-

2004 62,4 56,1 21,5 16,5 7,2 6,3

2003 28,0 21,4 1,6 4,2 7,4 6,52004 67,9 61,7 24,0 19,6 6,1 6,31997 67,5 52,5 4,7 14,1 18,6 14,92001 71,4 64,5 28,5 7,4 15,8 6,9

2001 73,0 68,6 22,2 1,9 17,9 4,31995 52,9 48,9 11,3 1,5 17,7 4,1


, -,

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.,

, . -

, , , ,

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. - (20%), -

(16%) -

126

(9%). - 69% , .

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. 2005–2010 . 86 , 53 -, , -

. 2005 . 60% ,

, 1995 . 40%. 47

, -, 27 , 12 – .

, -

XX . - XIX–XX ., -

XX XXI . 1950–1955 .

, -,

66 , 2005 . 77 ( . . 2.2.6).

1950- -: -

, , -

– 41 1950–1955 . 65 2005–2010 . -

-

127

– 25 1950–1955 . 12 2005–2010 . -

, 36 1950–1955 . 55

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13 . --

, , – -

, -

, , -

.

2.2.6

,

)

-

)1950–1955

1990–1995

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2045–2050

1950–19551990–1995

1990–19952005–2010

2005–20102045–2050

46,4 64,2 67,2 75,4 0,4 0,2 0,266,1 74,0 76,5 82,4 0,2 0,2 0,140,8 62,0 65,4 74,3 0,5 0,2 0,2

- 36,2 50,4 54,6 67,2 0,4 0,3 0,3

- 41,5 64,2 67,9 76,4 0,6 0,2 0,2

38,5 51,9 52,8 66,1 0,3 0,1 0,341,0 64,5 69,0 77,4 0,6 0,3 0,2

128

)

-

)1950–1955

1990–1995

2005–2010

2045–2050

1950–19551990–1995

1990–19952005–2010

2005–20102045–2050

65,6 72,6 74,6 81,0 0,2 0,1 0,251,4 68,6 73,3 79,6 0,4 0,3 0,2

68,8 75,5 78,5 83,3 0,2 0,2 0,160,4 72,3 75,2 81,0 0,3 0,2 0,1


, --

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.

, , , -

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: 93% 81% -.

, -,

2045–2050 . -:

75 , ,

. , , -

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129

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2005–2010 . 69,5 , – 65,0 . 1950–1955 .

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,

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. --

( . . 2.2.7).

2.2.7

-,

( ) %)

1950–1955 2005–2010 2005–2010- - - - - - 15

60 60 80

47,8 45,0 2,7 69,5 65,0 4,5 82,2 49,7

131

( ) %)

1950–1955 2005–2010 2005–2010- - - - - - 15

60 60 80

68,6 63,5 5,0 80,2 72,9 7,3 88,0 56,841,6 40,0 1,6 67,2 63,7 3,5 80,8 45,4

36,8 35,6 1,2 55,8 53,4 2,4 68,3 33,2

- 42,3 40,7 1,6 69,8 66,1 3,7 82,6 46,4

39,7 37,3 2,4 53,8 51,7 2,1 63,9 33,241,7 40,4 1,3 71,0 67,2 3,8 84,2 47,667,9 62,9 5,0 78,8 70,5 8,3 85,8 52,253,1 49,7 3,4 76,6 70,1 6,5 85,1 54,6

71,9 66,1 5,8 81,0 75,9 5,1 90,5 60,662,9 58,1 4,9 77,9 72,6 5,3 88,6 61,5


. 2.2.7, --

5 1950–1955 . 7,3 2005–2010 . , , -

--

( 5 8,3 ), , , ---

, -,

. -, 1950–1955 .

2005–2010 . -

132

– 5,8 5,1 .

, --

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, .

– 2,1 3,8 . « »

1990–1995 . 2005–2010 . , -

, , , .

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. . 2000–2005 . « »

, .

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.

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133

2007 . 35% -,

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. ,

1990–1995 . 2005–2010 . - 19% – 91 74 1000 -

. 2005–2010 . -,

, 81 1000 , 9 , , -

9 1000 ( .. 2.2.8).

, 141 1000 ,

, (62 1000 ). -

, 1990–1995 . 2005–2010 .

- – 45%. -

28%, - 16%.

– 15 60 – -

, . -

82% 15- 60- ( . . 2.2.7).

15 60 (88%), -

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134

a 2.2.8

,1950–1995 . 2005–2010 .

5 1000 )

1990–1995 . 2005–2010 .

%

1990–1995 .

91 74 17 1912 9 4 29

100 81 19 19

179 141 39 22

- 81 62 19 24

170 143 27 1683 59 23 2815 10 5 3149 27 22 45

9 8 2 1941 35 6 14


-, -

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, 77% 15-

60- . - (64%), -

135

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80 50% ( . . 2.2.7), -

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,

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-,

-.

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136

21%, - 15 . 2050 . -

, , 33%,.

(15%).

, , -

. , -, -

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, , 481 1,6 , . 3,3

, – 262 406 1,5 .

, :

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2050 . 10% 60 . ,

, 2050 . 24% -

, 2009 . 10%.

60- 15 1950–1955 . 20 2005–2010 ., , ,

2045–2050 . 23 . , 80 ,

137

1,5% , 2050 . 4,4%.

-. , -

, -,

, . - 342

, 2050 . - 1,2 . -

, -.

, -, -

..

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, -

. , -

1975 2005 . , , -, 2010 . 2025 .

. , -,

. , , ,

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-, ,

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138

, -. -

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-.

, .

XXI ,, , -

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. - 1990 2010 .

0,2%, 1% , -, , ( -

) , ,, , . -

2025 . 15,7%, 2050 .– 13,5%. 2025 .

, - 1,1 .

, 2010 . 5,6 82% -

. - 20 , -

1990 2010 . 1,5%, . 7 , -. -

95% , 25 100%.25

-. -

, -. -

139

, 0 14 60–65 ,

( 15 60–65 )26 – - « » – dependency ratio. ,

-. 1850 . 0,5 –

0,7 , , ,, , .

0,8, , 1890 . -

. 1950 . « -» 0,5.

, (0,7–1) 1970 .,

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. - 50 ,

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« » , -

-.

2.3.

, --

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140

-. -

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-. -

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., 1968 .,

. « » (The Popula-tion Bomb), -

, , -

.27 , , -

,

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-, .

2050 ., , - 6,83 ,

9–9,2 .28 , -,

2007–2010 ., - 40

2–3%, , .

XXI , ,

141

. ,-

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., « »,

. , , .

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-.

XVIII 20% -. -

. -

. 1914 . 4 , -

, ,

33%.29 1920- .

142

, , -, -

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. 2003 . -, 17%,

2050 . - 12%, , 1700 .

, . , XIX

, 32% , 1950 . – 68%.30

. -, , - 56% 2009 . -

. . , , 2050 ., -

5 . , , - 30%, , 1820 .31 ,

, . 2003 .

. -, -

, . -

, 2050 . .

. 2050 . -, , ,

. -

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143

1,2 , . , , . , -

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7,3 18 ). , -.

. 2050 . 24% ( 120

), 60 47%. , , -

( , ), 2010 2050 . 15%, - 4 , 60 : 1950

2010 . 62%. - 2050 . . 32

144

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145

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( 3855 . 2008 .).33

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--

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, 50% . 1950 .

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. 1 : -

– 8, – 12, – 100. -.-

147

35% ( 300 ) 2005 . 67% (1 ) 2050 . , 40% ,

73%- 2050 ., 30%- – 55%

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. , ,, -

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-

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, 750 .39

,

.-

, 1800 . , -

. -

60 . -

. -, XXI

.

1 . . 2- . .,1973. . 2. . 261-262.

2 Brown L. Population Policies for a New Era. Wash., 1993. P.36.

152

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4 . . .1 – .23 . . ,. 2- . . 180.

5 ., . . . 3 . . 19.6 . 1857-1859 . . 46 -

. . 1. . 374.7 Simon J.L. The Economics of Population Growth. Princeton Univ.

Press, Princeton (N.Y.), 1977. 555 p.8 Kuusi P. This World of Man. Pergamon Press. Oxford. 1985. P. 12-15.9 . . .,

, 2009 . . 4.10 Maddison A. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris,

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1991.16 www.avert.org/aafrica.htm17 Summers R., Heston A., Aten B., Nuxoll D. Penn. World Tables. Cam-

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Economic Development in East Asia. Stanford, 2001. P. 214.19 Mason A. Population, Capital and Labor. P. 211.20 Williamson J.G. Globalisation, Labor Markets and Policy Backlash in

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154

3

3.1.

. -,

50 - « » – ,

-.

- 1990 2009 .

0,2%, 1% , -, , ( -

) , ,, . -

- 2025 . 15,8%, 2050 . –

13,9% ( . . 3.1.1). 2025 . , -

1,1 1.-

. - 1990 2009 . 1,4%, . 7

, . -

155

95% -, 25 -

100%2.

3.1.1

I .

2009 .,.

1000.

. 1000

.

--

, %2025 .,

6 810 20 8 1,2 80871 232 12 10 0,2 1 282

- 5 578 22 8 1,4 6 805

1000 36 12 2,4 1 385836 39 13 2,5 1 184

205 25 7 1,9 257297 40 14 2,7 420313 40 13 2,6 455125 42 14 2,8 189

58 24 15 0,9 63

3.1.1

2050 ., .-

-

15 , % 65 , %

9 421 46 2,6 27 81 318 6 1,7 17 168 103 50 2,7 30 6

1 994 74 4,8 41 31 754 80 5,3 43 3

316 38 3,0 33 5623 80 5,5 44 3

156

2050 ., .-

-

15 , % 65 , %

682 76 5,4 44 3306 95 6,1 45 368 48 2,8 27 8

: 2009 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau. P. 6-9.

2,5 37% -. -

0,5%,

– 1,6%. , --

. 2025 . -,

- 2,4% .

2025 .17%, 2050 . – 21%, 7% 1820 . 6% 1900 .

, --

. , - 30–40 (16–18% ).

16 , , -,

. 1500 . - 10,8%, 1750 – 9,0%. XVII–XVIII

. -, ,

, , – 18–19

. 1750–1900 . 1,7 ( -

2,3 ).3

157

XX . -,

( 1900–1950 . - 1,7 , – 1,5 ),

. 2000 . 3,7 ,

– 2,47 . I

1950 . – 9%, 1980 . – 11%, 1990 . – 12%, 2000 . – 13%, 2009 . – 14,7%.4

- 2,4% . ,

-.

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XVIII–XIX . -, ,

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12 . --

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2 .6 - «

», - –

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2025 . 385 , 2050 . 609 , . .

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12 -, . , (10 -

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( - 1 ,

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162

46 . , -, -

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2009 .9,

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, , - – , 80%

794 , -

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(1990–2010 .) 2,3 1,3 ,, 2050 . 1,0, .

.

. – - –

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10 . -

164

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1980- ( ). -

, , -, , , .,

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10. 2009 . 1,5 . ,

, – 5,8 . 1000 . 71%

15 49 . - 60% – -. -

.11

– . 2009 . 3,3% , -

2,7 . 170 . .

-, 26% -

, (24 23% ). -

, ( -

165

20% ). – 2009 . -

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.12

. , 1992 2009 . 8,0 27, – 8,8

15, – 15,1 22, – 16 25 . ,

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-. -

. 15 -

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.13 ,, .

166

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165 86. , --

( 1960 . 5,5 , 2009 . – 14,3 ), 135

1960 . 80 2009 . , -

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-, 20 -

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45,3, 1992 . – 40,3, 2009 . – 37 . ( 2009 .

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, 2009 . 10–11 .

-, .

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, .

167

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.

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3.1.2

--

)

--

-,-

-

-

- 5

--

68 66 70 49 62 9940 2377 73 80 75 68 29680 –

- 66 64 67 43 60 5480 24

53 52 54 37 28 2550 24- 49 48 50 34 22 2000 26

68 67 70 50 50 4660 15

78 75 81 79 73 43290 1

73 70 76 76 71 8630 5

68 67 70 41 66 6630 2775 71 79 72 67 22690 –

: 2009 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau.P. 11-14.

168

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, .

, . -

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, 20–30 -.

, 30 , -

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, . -

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169

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, ,

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171

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2009 . 1 ., -,

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-.

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2–3 , -, .

176

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3.2.1

XXI .

-

2009 .,

-

1000.

-

1000.

,%

2025 .,

1000 36 12 2,4 1 385

. 836 39 13 2,5 1 184

205 25 7 1,9 257

35,4 23 4 1,9 43,778,6 25 6 1,9 99,10,5 23 6 1,8 0,8

6,3 24 4 2,0 8,131,5 21 6 1,4 36,642,3 33 11 2,2 56,710,4 17 6 1,2 12,2297 40 14 2,7 4208,9 41 9 3,2 13,8

15,8 46 14 3,2 24,81,6 39 11 2,8 2,3

23,8 31 10 2,1 32,210,1 39 12 2,7 15,21,6 43 17 2,6 2,30,5 26 5 2,1 0,7

21,4 37 14 2,4 29,94,0 40 10 3,0 5,9

177

-

2009 .,

-

1000.

-

1000.

,%

2025 .,

13 43 15 2,8 18,63,3 35 10 2,5 4,6

15,3 53 14 3,9 27,4152,6 41 15 2,6 207,212,5 39 10 2,9 17,95,7 40 20 2,0 8,16,6 35 8 2,7 9,3313 40 13 2,6 4558,3 36 15 2,1 11,20,9 30 12 1,9 1,1

12,6 45 16 2,9 18,312,5 32 18 1,4 1639,1 39 13 2,7 56,50,7 33 8 2,5 0,91,3 14 7 0,7 1,4

19,5 38 9 2,9 28,40,2 39 3 3,6 0,3

14,2 43 12 3,1 21,622 41 17 2,4 29,9

0,8 18 5 1,3 1,09,9 41 16 2,5 14,50,1 18 8 1,0 0.19,1 45 15 3,0 13,9

43,7 38 15 2,3 67,430,7 47 13 3,4 51,85,1 38 10 2,9 7,4

82,8 39 12 2,7 113,1125 42 14 2,8 189

17,1 46 19 2,7 26,21,5 28 10 1,8 1,9

68,7 44 13 3,1 109,718,9 36 13 2,3 25,5

178

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,%

2025 .,

3,7 36 13 2,3 5,3- 0,2 34 8 2,6 0,2

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- 58 24 15 0,9 63

2,0 25 12 1,3 2,32,1 25 23 0,2 2,42,2 29 8 2,1 2,81,2 31 15 1,6 1,5

50,7 23 15 0,8 54,4

3.2.1-

2050 .,. -

15 , % 65 , %1 994 74 4,8 41 31 754 80 5,3 43 3

316 38 3,0 33 550,5 26 2,3 28 5

122,3 19 3,0 33 50,9 44 3,0 31 29,8 18 2,7 30 4

42,4 31 2,4 29 675,9 81 4,5 41 313,9 19 2,0 25 7623 80 5,5 44 322 89 5,7 44 3

40,8 89 6,0 46 33,6 93 5,6 42 3

179

-

2050 .,. -

15 , % 65 , %45,2 50 4,0 40 424,0 104 5,7 43 33,6 117 5,9 43 30,8 29 3,1 38 6

43,7 100 4,9 40 28,8 99 5,8 44 3

28,3 110 6 45 26,9 73 5,1 40 4

58,2 88 7,4 49 3285,1 75 5,7 45 326,1 61 5,0 43 212,4 89 5,2 42 413,2 91 5,1 41 3682 76 5,4 44 3

14,8 120 5,4 41 31,5 67 4,2 37 3

28,1 70 6,2 46 319,1 60 3,8 40 483.8 67 4,9 42 21,2 53 4,2 38 31,5 15,4 1,7 23 7

42,3 70 5,0 44 30,4 - 4,5 42 2

34,1 80 6,3 46 342,4 97 5,4 43 31,1 8 2,5 27 7

21,8 62 5,5 44 30,1 12,9 2,2 23 8

23,5 111 6,7 45 3109,5 69 5,3 45 396,4 76 6,7 49 310,8 58 5,3 42 2

149,5 77 5,3 43 3

180

-

2050 .,. -

15 , % 65 , %306 95 6,1 45 3

42,7 125 6,6 46 22,5 55 3,6 37 4

189,3 92 6,5 47 334,9 74 4,7 42 47,8 75 5,3 42 30,3 75 4,1 41 4

6,5 106 5,0 41 420,5 106 6,3 46 31,4 102 5,4 41 3

68 48 2,8 33 5

2,8 48 3,2 35 52,6 83 3,4 35 53,6 46 3,6 38 41,7 85 3,8 35 4

57,4 45 2,7 32 5

: 2009 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau.Wash., 2009. P. 6-7.

-.

313 -,

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. , , , ,

181

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– , 281

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2009 . 189 2050 ., . ., , -

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. -, -

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.

184

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2,7 2007 .

, . -

.

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, 67% .29

2008 . 22,4 ( – 25

), 2008 . - 1,9 .

1,4 . 2 . 2008 .

300 . , 400 . -. 14 -

.-

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,

, . --

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. 2004 . - 9%.

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, .

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. , , 2009 . 26%,

. , – 5,7

186

. (16,9% 2001 . 18,1% 2009 .)

, , -, , . 2001

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– 23,9 23,2%. 2002 2008 .

, 2004 2008 . – . - 2000- . -

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-. 2002 2008 . -

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2000 2007 . --

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187

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2005 . (34% ). ,

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2005 .

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445 (5) 50 199 23 525 60 66 7.4- 2 993

(34)181 1 339 81 4 809 290 512 31

-1 927

(22)110 866 49 3 616 206 295 17

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189

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- 1990 . -

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100 . 32, - 27 .

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. -, , ,

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) 2007 . 47,6 6,8 -.33

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, --

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190

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». 10 -

« », 2006–2015 . , -

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6 ( -6), 8: 2015 . -

., -

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2015 .: - 50% 1990 .;

2050 .: - ( ).

2007 « -», 2005 -

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: , ). 74%

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, - 25 . -

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191

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, , , ,

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. :

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, -

, -, -

192

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, . -

. -.

2006 . 104 - 100 . . -

17 . - 180, – 201, -

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, - 14%, – 36%.35

. 2000- .

( 100 . ) -:

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– – 390 – 301):

– – 147 ( – 130);– – 126 ( – 93)36.

, -

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. , --

, -. -

193

- 14,5 2000 . 12 2009 .

XXI , -.

, - – 7

, – – 15 .-

, 2009 . (4 -), , (6,0 ), -

(5,0), (5,0), - (7,0); – (23),

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, , -

, -.

3.2.3,

2000–2008 .

/

10 .

-

--

10 .

-

10. -

--

%

2000/2006

--

(%)2000/2006

-

--

(%)2000/2006

-

2000/2006.

12 22 8 3,5/4,2 73,3/81,1 0,1/0,1 188/3151 14 2 2,4/2,6 79,9/86,8 3,6/7,0 56/115 1 8 1 4,6/4,7 47,6/50,2 16,0/21,0 50/614 27 9 4,8/7,1 63,7/76,5 0,5/5,8 374/815

194

/

10 .

-

--

10 .

-

10. -

--

%

2000/2006

--

(%)2000/2006

-

--

(%)2000/2006

-

2000/2006.

- 1 5 2 5,1/6,3 39,6/56,9 13,9/32,9 41/73

1 2 2 4,1/8,7 13,2/8,6 21,8/47,5 12/313 50 5 4,5/4,5 67,9/73,0 1,5/1,8 552/6281 13 5 4,4/5,0 44,6/56,8 29,5/34,7 39/572 9 4 7,2/5,1 41,4/34,2 9,5/22,6 65/761 5 2 5,3/5,8 12,4/14,1 9,0/11,8 47/65

- 1 7 16 7,0/5,8 14,3/26,3 41,0/33,4 34/29

1 5 1 3,7/6,8 1,1/18,7 3,7/51,9 8/192 4 4 5,8/6,8 67,8/74,1 32,6/30,1 90/133

24 34 21 5,6/6,3 40,1/41,4 1,0/0,8 208/3201 20 20 5,7/6,2 51,3/60,7 17,8/38,1 52/792 7 30 8,3/9,3 43,1/48,7 1,6/17,3 15 9 21 4,6/4,9 73,5/78,3 13,5/17,5 97/1392 16 15 4,6\4,6 22,5/21,2 4,1/8,0 75/941 12 14 4,5/4,6 48,2/47,8 8,3/14,9 51/672 7 22 2,8/3,2 54,1/55,1 29,7/31,9 21/27

2 10 16 2,1/2,1 57,7/71,7 4,6/3,4 56/741 6 4 5,3/3,8 24,8/23,6 4,6/8,3 84/631 6 13 6,2/6,8 51,0/58,9 3,1/14,3 65/98 1 3 3,7/4,8 17,8/25,8 13,9/50,7 14/15

13 48 37 3,7/2,4 61,7/66,3 0,0/0,0 385/35511 37 30 3,8/3,9 52,0/51,1 1,4/1,0 302/488

- 1 6 4 2,8/2,2 71,2/69,5 23,6/18,0 40/41

3 3 3 6,1/12,9 43,8/69,0 27,3/49,4 21/28 1 6 11 6,1/12,9 43,8/69,0 26,9/59,6 38/621 6 3 6,3/5,8 32,9/49,6 7,8/17,6 52/675 8 9 4,2/5,3 29,4/26,2 0,8/2,5 109/207 1 3 8 4,8/5,0 68,5/70,8 32,5/60,3 21/363 31 33 7,0/5,4 68,9/66,7 3,8/21,1 243/261

195

/

10 .

-

--

10 .

-

10. -

--

%

2000/2006

--

(%)2000/2006

-

--

(%)2000/2006

-

2000/2006.

1 2 3 3,5/5,9 54,5/54,7 40,0/32,8 16/383 17 5 5,0/3,8 33,5/29,7 16,2/5,9 59/59

- 1 4 11 3,9/6,4 40,4/57,8 26,7/43,9 30/72

1 4 16 4,2/10,9 39,2/42,5 52,0/52,4 24/895 19 32 6,3/6,3 80,5/85,0 27,5/50,5 -/95

2 63 21 6,1/6,3 58,6/65,8 5,5/12,3 207/300- 15 79 57 5,3/6,3 75,3/75,1 5,6/3,4 742/931

1 3 1 4,3/5,8 36,9/56,9 17,4/12,3 54/92 1 2 – – – – –3 9 7 3,0/3,8 26,3/36,8 4,8/6,5 37/72

- 1 5 4 4,9/4,0 43,0/36,4 19,6/33,5 17/29

1 4 9 4,8/6,0 29,9/21,2 6,6/12,3 32/4613 29 18 5,6/5,1 48,5/44,2 0,9/0,9 271/3551 7 10 6,6/7,0 26,8/25,4 28,3/31,2 45/711 4 12 3,8/4,0 41,4/38,3 22,9/21,2 25/27 1 3 4 6,3/4,9 42,5/53,9 24,9/17,7 49/72

- 3 5 1,9/2,1 50,7/80,4 9,6/3,5 160/633

1 6 12 5,5/3,6 49,7/45,9 24,7/37,6 33/19 1 2 2 4,3/3,9 53,6/59,3 16,4/42,7 19/268 41 28 8,1/8,0 42,4/37,7 0,3/0,9 519/7152 11 10 5,5/5,5 44,8/47,1 6,8/10,7 83/111

19 49 24 11,3/12,8 45,7/47,7 0,1/0,1 1935/278832 79 63 8,0/8,4 73,6/75,6 0,2/0,1 1197/171913 28 25 8,2/8,7 56,6/57,6 0,3/0,4 555/79043 35 97 5,4/5,3 59,9/63,2 0,2/0,1 410/698

: . 2009. -. 2009 . . 96-105.

196

. 3.2.3 , XXI 10 . 13 -

28 , 2 11 -

. -

. 17 10 . - 1 , 11 , ,, , , , , , -

, , , , 1 20–30 . .

, -, -

( . . 3.2.1). 5 ( , , -, ) -

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(63) (79). ,

, -.

,.

10 . 25, – 63, ( )– 24, – 10. -

2000- . , (57), (37),

(33), (32), (30), (30) (28), – , ,

1 10 . , , , , .

197

2001 2006 . 5,5% . -

8,2% 2000 . 8,7% 2006 .

, , -, .

, --

44,8% 2000 . 47,1% 2006 .

60% , - 75%. -

, 70% -. , ,

, , , , , , -, , , -

. -, , , , , , -

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. (

) – 83 . 2000 . 111 . 2006 ., 7 , 25 , -

. -, ,

. -

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13 , , ,, , , , ,

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,

198

– 6,8% 2000 . 10,7% 2006 . 0,3 0,4% -.

-. -

. - (60,3%), (59,6%), (52,4%), (51,9%), -

(50,7%), (50,5%).

1%. , --

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, 1990 . 50% , 2006 .– 59%. . -

, 95% 97% .

84 82% ( - – 96 99%), – 36 46% (

– 80 92%). 37 , -, , ,

, -, -

. -

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-. , , -

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, XXI 98% ,

.

199

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, , , , , , -, , .

-, -

. 1990 . 29% -, 45% 22%

. 1990 . 51, 76 34%. , -

– 93, 97 84%. 2006 . , -

: –33%, – 46%, – 26%.;

– 60, 78 44% ; - – 93, 97 85% . -

--

, -. , 2007 . ,

100 . .38

80% -.

, , , , , -, , , , , , .

-. , 94%

, – 99%, - – 87%. -. , , -

, , , -.39

, -

200

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. , , -

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, . -

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6 – . -

.

2009 .38 ( . 3.2.1). 2009 . 26 ,

– 19, – 31, – 18, – 19 - 1 . -

, -.

- 80 1000 –

. -: – 125, – 120,

201

– 117, – 111, , , , – 100.

5 . -

. - 30–40%

., 10–20 -

-,

. XXI , , -

-, , -

, - XX , (

, -), -

. XXI

– -, -

. , -,

--

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, 20 --

. 1982 . 45,3, 1992 . – 40,3, 2009 . – 36 .

( 2009 .

202

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, 2009 . 10–11 . -

-.

2009 . 39 , – 40, – 40, – 42, – 24 -

. , (53 ), -

(46), (45), (44), , , - (43 ),

– (14 ), (18) (18). -

30 7 1,17 40. -

. 25 - 2009 . 38,9 1982 . -

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( 2 ) -, 2009 . -

17 . ,

. 30

33 - – ,

, 25 – 21 -.

- –

, -. -

. 1999

203

2009 . - 4,9 4,8.

– 3,2 1999 . 3,0 2009 .,

XXI - 5,3. -

, – 2,8, – – 6,1.

5,5, – 5,4 .

, (1,7), (2),

(2,2), (2,4), (2,5), (2,7), – (6,7), (6,6),

(6,5), (6,3), (6,2), - (6,0). 3.2.4.,

, , -, 60% . -

, 42%. -

-. , 3%

, – 6%, – 8%.

,--

. , -

.I 65%

2 , 74%, -

– 18%. 86% ,70% , 64% , ,

204

63% , 57% , -, , , -

, . « » ( . ) 10%

0,5% ( ) 4,4% , « » ( )10% – 25% 45,9% 50% 41. -

- (

-),

-, –

, – . 2007–2010 . -

, -.

3.2.4

2001–2009 .

-

%

2008

/200

1

%

15-

49

,

%

- 1

5-49

,

-.

.

(200

8 .)

.

%

, 2

.

55 53 56 38 4,3/4,6 28 23 2660 6551 50 53 35 5,0/5,7 22 17 1950 74

69 67 71 50 0,4/0,4 49 44 5370 18

72 71 74 63 0,1/0,1 61 52 7940 24

205

-

%

2008

/200

1

%

15-

49

,

%

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5-49

,

-.

.

(200

8 .)

.

%

, 2

.

72 70 74 43 .* 60 58 5460 1865 63 67 81 .

73 71 76 77 . 42 20 1563071 69 73 56 0,1/0,1 63 55 4330 1458 57 60 38 1,4/1,4 8 6 193074 72 76 66

0,1/0,160 52 7070 13

51 50 52 42 2,5/2,8 15 9 1600 76

56 54 57 41 1,2/1,3 15 9 1460 75- 57 56 58 16 1,6/2,1 17 13 1160 81

55 54 57 54 0,9/0,9 10 9 1280 5759 58 59 48 1,9/2,3 24 17 1430 5456 54 58 33 1,6/1,2 9 6 1190 87

- 46 45 48 30 1,8/1,8 10 6 530 78

71 68 73 59 . 61 57 3450 4052 50 53 48 3,9/6,0 13 8 1580 4756 54 57 58 1,7/1,4 11 10 300 3648 47 48 31 1,5/1,5 8 6 1090 77

- 57 55 59 40 0,8/0,7 9 8 2000 44

53 51 54 17 0,8/0,7 11 5 680 8647 47 48 47 3,1/3,2 15 9 1940 8455 54 57 41 1,0/0,4 12 10 1760 60

- 48 48 49 37 1,5/ . 8 7 750 76

61 60 63 40 3,3/3,6 17 11 820 6951 50 52 22 5,6/ . 26 21 1030 78

49 48 51 10 2,0/3,5 9 8 380 9355 53 56 87 3,1/3,1 18 17 2330 41

206

-

%

2008

/200

1

%

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72 69 76 42 0,3/1,7 76 42 12480 .59 57 61 30 0,1/0,1 27 17 1040 9072 69 76 42 . . . . .46 45 47 17 11,9/13,3 42 39 830 9043 42 44 29 12,5/10,3 17 12 770 9076 72 80 92 . 67 64 . .48 46 50 18 2,8/4,3 36 27 1010 90

- 73 68 79 53 . . . 19770 .

50 48 51 37 0,5/0,5 15 1 . .54 53 55 25 5,7/ . 26 20 1230 9750 50 51 13 5,4/7,9 24 18 1140 7658 56 61 21 1,3/1,2 8 5 630 .53 51 54 16 2,1/2,4 15 14 870 78

- 51 49 52 41 2,5/ . 19 7 1650 74

46 44 48 57 2,1/1,6 6 5 5020 7059 58 61 84 5,9/5,6 33 12 12270 2053 49 55 33 1,3/ . 21 6 290 80

53 52 54 60 3,5/4,4 44 13 3090 7465 63 67 58 . 29 27 1780 .

45 45 45 38 6,3/6,4 19 9 730 8247 46 48 27 3,5/3,4 3 2 1160 83

- 59 59 60 39 3,4/3,7 . . 21700 .

207

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%

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%

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49

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%

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52 50 53 56 18,5/17,6 59 58 9380 45

49 44 54 60 23,9/26,5 44 42 13100 4940 40 39 24 23,2/23,9 37 35 2000 6259 58 61 35 15,3/14,6 55 53 6270 62

46 46 46 24 26,1/26,3 51 48 5010 8152 50 54 59 18,1/16,9 60 60 9780 43

* .

: 2009 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau.Wash., 2009. P. 10-11, 15-16.

. , -

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1 www.unfpa.org/modules/briefkit/English/ch05.html2 Ibid.3 . . ., 1986 . . 1, . 56.4 : U.S. Census Bureau. Global Population Profile: 2002,

P. 1-4 : The 2009 World Population Data Sheet. P. 7-10.5 www.census.gov6 .

// . . . ., 1987. . 18.7 African Development Indicators 2002. The World Bank. Wash., 2002.

P. 6.8 The 2009 World Population Data Sheet. P. 6, 10.9 African Development Indicators. P. 312-319. The 2009 World Popula-

tion Data Sheet. P. 6, 10.10 : African Development Indicators. P. 315.11 www.avert.org/aafrica.htm12 Ibidem.


http://www.census.gov

http://www.avert.org/aafrica.htm

235

13 African Development Indicators. P.309. The 2009 World PopulationData Sheet. P. 7-8.

14 African Development Indicators. P. 322.15 Philippe Fragues. State Policies and the Birth’Rate in Egypt: from so-

cialism to liberalism // Population and Development Review. Vol. 23. N 1.1997. P. 27.

16 www.unchs.org17 The 2009 World Population Data Sheet. P. 11.18 The 2009 World Population Data Sheet. . 7; African Development

Indicators 2002. P. 313.19 African Development Indicators 2002. The World Bank. Washington,

2002. P. 312.20 Ibidem.21 Ibid. P. 272.22 http://geo.1september.ru/2001/19/7.htm23Africa Renewal. United Nations Department of Public Information.

N.Y. Vol. 19, No. 4, January 2006, P.16.24 www.ilo.org25 : African Development Indicators 2002. The

World Bank. Wash., 2002. P. 6 : 2009 World Population Data Sheet.Population Reference Bureau. Wash., 2009. P. 6-7.

26 : The 2009 World Population Data Sheet/ PopulationReference Bureau. Washington, 2009. P. 7-10.

27 Ibid. P. 14-15.28 www.who.int/entity/dg/speeches/2009/afro_regional_committee_ 200

90831/en/29 : http://www.un.org/ru/unforpe-

ople/aids6.shtml30 : The 2009 World Population Data Sheet/ Population

Reference Bureau. Washington, 2009. P. 10-11 African DevelopmentIndicators 2002. The World Bank. Wash., 2002. P. 6.

31 : http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat/2009/ru/index. html

32 . 2009. -. 2009 . . 56.

33 .34 : http://www.who.int/media-

centre/factsheets/ fs094/ru/

http://www.unchs.org

http://geo.1september.ru/2001/19/7.htm

http://www.ilo.org

http://www.who.int/entity/dg/speeches/2009/afro_regional_committee_

http://www.un.org/ru/unforpe-

http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat/

http://www.who.int/media-

35 . 2009. -. 2009 . . 26-27.

36 .37 . 2009. -

. 2009 . . 92.38 . . 69.39 . . 84-90.40 African Development Indicators 2002. P. 313; The

2009 World Population Data Sheet. P. 7-841 Ibid. P. 311.42 African Development Indicators 2002. The World Bank. Washington,

2002. P. 312.43 African Development Indicators 2002. . 313; The 2009 World Popu-

lation Data Sheet. P. 7-8.44 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau.

Wash., 2007. P. 7.45 World Bank. World Development Report 2007. Wash., 2009. P. 132.46 African Development Indicators 2009. The World Bank. Wash., 2009.

P. 15-18.47 Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of Remittances

and Migration 2006. Wash., 2006. P. 90.48 Country Profile. Algeria. L., 2008. P. 10.49 Egyptian Federation of Industries. Annual Report. Cairo, 2008. P.22.50 Country Profile. Tunisia. L., 2008. P. 18.51 Country Profile. Algeria. P. 17.52 Banque Marocaine du Commerce Exterieur. Annual Report 2006.

Casablanca, 2007. P. 27.53 African Development Indicators 2006. The World Bank. Wash., 2006.

P. 19.54 . . ., 2005.

. 51.55 www.unchs.org/education/country/56 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau.

Wash., 2007. P. 7-10.57 Ibidem.58 Ibidem.59 : www.census.gov. U.S. Census Bureau, International

Data Base.

http://www.unchs.org/education/country/

http://www.census.gov.

237

4

:,

4.1. :

– .

, . -

« -» « »,

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.-

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, -

238

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242

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.

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. 1950 . 53%, -

2020 .5

4.1.1,

(%) ( )1950-1975

1975-2007

2007-2025

2025-2050

1950 1975 2007 2025 2050

1,90 1,54 1,02 0,55 2,54 4,08 6,67 8,01 9,191,01 0,48 0,16 -0,04 0,81 1,05 1,22 1,26 1,25

243

(%) ( )1950-1975

1975-2007

2007-2025

2025-2050

1950 1975 2007 2025 2050

- 2,26 1,84 1,19 0,65 1,72 3,03 5,45 6,75 7,95

2,89 2,42 1,84 1,33 0,74 1,52 3,29 4,58 6,401,98 0,81 0,49 0,30 0,43 0,70 0,91 0,99 1,07

- 3,88 3,35 2,27 1,58 0,31 0,82 2,38 3,59 5,33

1,44 0,87 0,08 -0,82 1,80 2,56 3,38 3,43 2,79-0,44 -0,32 -0,94 -1,67 0,39 0,35 0,31 0,26 0,17

- 1,80 1,02 0,17 -0,74 1,41 2,21 3,06 3,16 2,62

: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Report. P. 2.

, 2007 2050 . - 2,5 – 6,7 9,2

. , 3,1 – 3,3 6,4 .

, « » --

600 .6 - 2050 . 70%

30% – , . -

: 2007 2050 . 1,8 , – 0,9 -

– 0,2 . 0,2 -

. , -

244

40 -, ,

95% 2007 2050 ., -

-.

, 2050 . 8,1 ,

, - 60% .

-.

4.1.2

(%)1950 . 1975 . 2007 . 2025 . 2050 .

29,1 37,3 49,4 57,2 69,652,5 67,0 74,4 79,0 86,0

- 18,0 27,0 43,8 53,2 67,0


2 : -, 1950 . 52,5%

, , – 18%. 2007 . 74,4% 43,8%

.

21,9 , – 25,8,

- ( . . 4.1.1.). -

-

245

40 , , 2050 . 86 67% .

: 12 -, – 22

. 50% -

500 . . - 19 « », -

10 . - 9% , -

2050 . - 10%.7 , -

40 .

, , , .

, .

, , .

, , . -

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, , -, -

.).--

. , , , -, , -

, -, , -

246

, , , -, ,

. ,

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--

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.-

50–60 , ( . 4.1.3). 1950 2007 .

- 2,6% (2,9% 1950–1975 . 2,4% 1975–2007 .), -

4 0,7 3,3 . -, 2007 2025 . -

1,8%, 2025 2050 . – 1,3%, 3,3 4,58 6,4

, . 43 .8

4.1.3

( )1950 1975 2007 2025 2050 1950-

19751975-2007

2007-2025

2025-2050

224 416 965 1394 1998 2,48 2,63 2,04 1,441411 2394 4030 4779 5266 2,12 1,63 0,95 0,39548 676 731 715 664 0,84 0,24 -0,12 -0,30

- 168 325 572 688 769 2,65 1,77 1,02 0,45

247

( )1950 1975 2007 2025 2050 1950-

19751975-2007

2007-2025

2025-2050

.

--

172 243 339 393 445 1,40 1,03 0,82 0,50

13 21 34 41 49 2,03 1,49 1,05 0,65

33 107 373 658 1234 4,76 3,90 3,15 2,52237 574 1645 2440 3486 3,54 3,29 2,19 1,43281 444 528 545 557 1,84 0,54 0,18 0,08

-

.

69 198 448 575 683 4,21 2,55 1,38 0,69

--

110 180 275 337 401 1,98 1,33 1,11 0,70

8 15 24 30 37 2,60 1,44 1,17 0,89

192 309 592 736 764 1,92 2,03 1,21 0,151174 1820 2384 2339 1780 1,75 0,84 -0,11 -1,09267 232 204 170 107 -0,57 -0,41 -1,00 -1,84

-

.

98 126 124 113 87 1,01 -0,06 -0,50 -1,08

--

62 64 63 56 44 0,11 -0,02 -0,65 -1,00

5 6 10 12 11 0,88 1,60 0,78 -0,04


, 1920 . 30% , 1950 . – 53%. -

248

( 80%) , , , .

, 72%, -. 2050 . -

84%, -, , -

90%., -

, - 78% ( 4 , !).

- (38%) 3

(41%). 2050 . -

(4,76% 1950–1975 ., 3,9% 1975–2007 ., 3,15% 2007–2025 . 2,52% 2025–2050 .). , -

( . .4.1.4).

4.1.4

(%)

1950 . 1975 . 2007 . 2025 . 2050 .14,5 25,7 38,7 47,2 51,816,8 24,0 40,8 51,1 66,251,2 65,7 72,2 76,2 83,8

- 41,4 61,1 78,3 83,5 88,7

63,9 73,8 81,3 85,7 90,2

62,0 71,5 70,5 71,9 76,4

: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Report. P.5.

249

2007 . .

(16% 2007 .), – - (14%). 2050 . (54% -

) (20%).,

2018–2019 .(3,5

), 2050 . -

2,8 . -, -

90% . -, 1950 ., -

, -, -

82% 1950 . 54% 2007 .

, ,, 2021 ., , , -

.9 71%

18% – . - 2025 .,

. 2050 . -, , 5 -

64%, - 9

27%.

25 . – , 35% -

. 25 , 7 27 50%,

, -

250

, , , , -. -

– 229 5 , -

– 6%.

, - 2007 2025 . 35% -

. -, , , -

, , . -

– 2–3% . 25 « » ,

377, – 205 .

, --

– 0,9 , - – 1 .

-,

. , , 2007 2025 . 8

, 2025 2050 . – 7 . - – 3 4 . -

2025 2050 . 4 . -

-, ,

, , .

« -» , -

. 2007 . 18 75% « », ( -

251

, ) .

( 229) 5 .

5%.-

(830 ), (767 ). -

47% . 100 -,

. , -,

– (78 ), (69 ), (43 ), (42 ), -

( 30 ). 2010 2025 .-

(1% ), . -

(0,8%). 18 ,

, -, , -

, .,

. 52%-

500 . . « » -

21 . 250 . .

, 54% -

, 51%. 15 -

.

252

(500 . 1 ) 460 551 2025 .

10% . (

1 5 ), 2025 . 382 524, 23% .

4.1.5

( ) (%)---

1975 . 2007 . 2025 . 1975 . 2007 . 2025 .

1519 3294 4584 100 100 100

10 >

53 286 447 3,5 8,7 9,7

5-10 117 214 337 7,7 6,5 7,31-5 317 760 1058 20,9 23,1 23,1

0,5-1 167 322 390 11,0 9,8 8,5< 0,5 864 1712 2354 56,9 52 51,3

702 910 995 100 100 100

10 >

42 89 103 6,1 9,8 10,3

5-10 50 49 69 7,1 5,4 6,91-5 137 202 203 19,6 22,2 20,4

0,5-1 71 83 90 10,2 9,1 9,0< 0,5 401 487 531 57,1 53,5 53,4

817 2384 3590 100 100 100

10 >

11 197 344 1,3 8,3 9,6

5-10 68 165 268 8,3 6,9 7,51-5 180 558 855 22,1 23,4 23,8

-

0,5-1 96 239 300 11,7 10,0 8,4

253

( ) (%)---

1975 . 2007 . 2025 . 1975 . 2007 . 2025 .

< 0,5 463 1225 1822 56,6 51,4 50,8


. 4.1.5 , - 10–15 -

10 – 8,7 9,7%, – 9,8 10,3%,

– 8,3 9,6%. 5 10 , -

, . ,

, . - 1 5 -

( 0,4 ) . -

, 10–20 ,

, . 1950 . 10 – (12,3 ) (11,3

). 19: (35,7 ) , (19,0) , (19,0) ,

(19,0) , (19,0) , (15,9) -, (15,0) , (14,8) ,

(13,5) , (12,8) , - (12,5) , (12,1) , (11,9) , (11,7) , (11,3) -

, (11,1) , (11,1) , - (10,5) (10,1) . ,

11 19 , 4 – -

254

, 2 – . 11 19 – . -

, - 9%.

, - 87 ,

, -, , -

19 . 2025 . 27. -

( (12,4 ), - (11,8) (10,2), -

(10,5) (10,1); 2 ( (16,8) (15,8) 1 (

10 ). 36,4 , -

20,6 -, (26,4), (22,5),

(22,0), (21,4) (21,0).

– 10 14% .

(11%) (10%). - 68% -

500 . , - 58%.

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2 State of World Population 2007. Unleashing the Potential of UrbanGrowth. UNFPA. N.Y., 2007. P. 26.

3 Shukka V. Urbanization and Economic Growth. Delhi, 1996. P. 87.4 -

.5 World Population Prospects. The 2007 Revision. U.N., N.Y., 2008.

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Wash., 2000; J. D. Tarver, Urbanization in Africa: A Handbook. L., 1995.13 Todaro M. Economic Development in the Third World. N.Y., 1989.

P. 286.14 The African Cities Report 2008. . 7.15

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sponses. Wash., 1992. P. 1.17 The African Cities Report 2008. . 6; African Economic Outlook

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44 The Preliminary Results of Internal Migration. Differentiations Sur-vey of 2007. Cairo, 2007. P. 45.

45 Ibid. . 103.46 Ibid. P. 126.47 www.census.gov/cgi-bin/=EG48 1976-

2006 .49 Egypt Human Development Report. Institute of National Planning.

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1 Hicks R. The Theory of Wages. L., 1932. P.12.2 Greenwood Michael J. “Internal Migration in Developed Countries” in

Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, editors, Handbook of Population andFamily Economics, Volume 1B. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1997. P. 647-720.

3 Brueckner Jan K. “Welfare Reform and the Race to the Bottom: The-ory and Evidence,” Southern Economic Journal 66 (January 2000): 505-525.

4 -, , , , ,

5 Mincer Jacob. “Family Migration Decisions,” Journal of PoliticalEconomy 86 (October 1978): 749–773.

385

6 .: . : . ., 2009. . 260-281.

7 Borjas George J. “The Economics of Immigration,” Journal of Eco-nomic Literature 32 (December 1994): 1667-1717.

8 Borjas George J. “The Economic Benefits from Immigration,” Journalof Economic Perspectives 9 (Spring 1995): 3-22.

9 « ». , « », -

., , ,

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11 C. Keeton Strayhorn. Undocumented Immigrants in Texas: A Finan-cial Analysis of the Impact to the State Budget and Economy/ Special Re-port. Texas, Dec.2006., Exhibit 18. P. 20.

12 International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Statistics Year-book, 2007. Washington, DC

13 Human Development Report 2009. U.N. 2009. P.6.14 Ibid. P. 7.15 www.unfpa.org/modules/briefkit/English/ch05.html16 www.worldbank.org17Africa Renewal. United Nations Department of Public Information.

N.Y. Vol. 21, No. 4, January 2008, P.16.18 www.ilo.org19 Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of Remittances

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international migration. – N.Y., 2000. P. 59.21 Human Rights Watch World Report. 2008. Africa: overview.–

http://www.hrw.org/wr.Africa html.22 www.ifad.org/events/remittances23 . / 2002. .,

2002. . 60-62.24 www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/ Country_Specific/Benin.html25 http://www.hrw.org/wr.Africa



http://www.ilo.org

http://www.hrw.org/wr.Africa

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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/

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26 www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/ Country_Specific/Burkina.html27 Ibid.28 www.sas.upenn.edu/African_Studies/ Country_Specific/Nigeria.html29 Stalker P. Op.cit. . 236.30 International migration policies. . 154.31 www.gov.bw32 www.libia-olafur.com33 www.edt.it/lonelyplanet/microguide/text/054/34 www.indexmundi.com/es/libia/35 C. de Wenden. L'immigration en Europe. P., 1999. . 32.36 www.ilo.org37 VII ( -

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: ». - 308 124 20 25

. – , , , , -, , .

47 www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=186993&Cr=educat&Cr148 Open Doors. (2008). Report for International Educational Exchange.

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TION_DET50 : www.unesco.org; www.oecd.org51 Department of Education. HEMIS Data, South Africa (June 2008).



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387

52 Said M.E., Kamel M.M. Egypt. Chapter in African Higher Education:the International Dimension. Cairo, 2008. P. 89.

53 Human Development Report 2009. U.N. 2009. P. 68.54 Exploitation and Abuse of Children Migrants Workers. Booklet 4.

ILO, 2004. P. 15-16.55 www.worldbank.org/womenmigration56 , www.worldbank.org/womenmigration57 www.worldbank.org58 , , , 1997 .

1,2 12,2 ; -, 1997 .,

; 3/4 (Africa South of the Sahara. 2001. L., 2000.

. 163, 659, 1024).59 C.de Wenden. L'immigration en Europe. P., 1999. . 68.60 2008 , http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/

texis/vtx/home61 International Organization for Migration (2007) World Migration

2006: Managing Migration, Challenges and Responses for People on theMove. IOM

62 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228236.stm63 http://www.ru.nl/socgeo/html/files/migration/migration5.pdf64 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228236.stm65 UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007. United Nations De-

velopment Programme.66 http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/news/newsid_4295000/4295750.stm67 www.map.ma/eng/sections/imp_general/security_forces_arre3411/

view68 www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=267628&hilite=illegal+

migrants69 Hassen Boubakri. Transit migration between Tunisia, Libya and Sub-

Saharan Africa: study based on Greater Tunis. 2004, Council of Europe(http://www.coe.int/).

70 Ibidem.71 BBC, «Egyptians risking all to enter Europe», 2/07/200772 David van Moppes, (2006), «The African Migration Movement:

Routes to Europe», 17/05/2007

http://www.worldbank.org/womenmigration

http://www.worldbank.org/womenmigration


http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228236.stm

http://www.ru.nl/socgeo/html/files/migration/migration5.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228236.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/news/newsid_4295000/4295750.stm

http://www.map.ma/eng/sections/imp_general/security_forces_arre3411/

http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=267628&hilite=illegal+

http://www.coe.int/).

388

73 International Migration Report 2006: A Global Assessment. UnitedNations. N.Y., 2009. P. 24.

74 Ibid. P. 5.75 .: ., ., .

» « » -. ., 2007.

76 www.imo.org77 http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-

anarchy/4670/78 IMF. Balance of Payment Manual, 5 ed., 1995, Wash., DC. P. 75, 82,

84.79 www.worldbank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances80 Dilip Ratha. Leveraging Remittances for Development. Wash., 2007.

P. 8.81 http:/migration.ucdavis.edu/Data/remit.on.www/remittances.html82 www.ifad.org/events/remittances83 ., : Azam P., Gubert F. Migrants’ Remittances and the

Household in Africa: A Review of Evidence//Journal of African Econo-mies. 2006. V. 15, Issue 2, P. 426-462; Konseiga A. New Patterns in Hu-man Migration in West Africa. Bonn, Center for Development Research.2005.

84 www.ifad.org/events/remittances85 IFAD World Bank 2007 .86 www.oecd/dac/stats87 www.unctad.org88 www.worldbank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances89 2005-2008 . 316 -

25 35 , , -

. – , , ,, , , .

90 www.entrepreneurnewsonline.com/2007/08/diaspora_remitt.html91 Azam P., Gubert F. Migrants’ Remittances and the Household in Af-

rica… . 437.92 Mutume G. African Migration: from Tensions to Solutions//Africa

Renewal. Vol. 19, No. 4. January 2006. P.16.93 ., ., .

// . 2007. . 41-42.

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http://www.worldbank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances



http://www.unctad.org


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94 www.ilo.org95 www.wdsbeta.worldbank.org96 Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of Remittances

and Migration. The World Bank. Wash., 2006, P. 9197 www.iom.int98 www.ifad.org99 www.mediaclubsouthafrica.com100 www.worldbank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances101 Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of Remittances

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http://www.ifad.org

http://www.mediaclubsouthafrica.com


http://www.alernet.org/thenews/

390

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- - - -

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72,071,572,2

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* .: Decent Work for Africa’s Development. ILO. Geneva, 2008. P. 8,

www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_rus.pdf

-,

, .

(72%) -

http://www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_rus.pdf

421

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40000 . , 1960–2008 . -

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4 http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html5 http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/index.htm

http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html

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6 http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/download/chap1a.pdf

7 ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, November 2007.8 http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/download/esp14.

pdf9 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf10 www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/download/chap1a.

pdf11 www.ilo.

org/public/info/publ/get10.pdf12 http://www.opec.ru/1150410.html13 http://www.opec.ru/1318911.html14 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf15 2007/2008. , . 2008.

. 244-246.16 Decent Work for Africa’s Development. ILO. Geneva, 2003. P. 8–9.17 . . ,

2006. . 45.18 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf19 Ibidem.20 . . ,

2006. . 48.21 . . , 2007. . 52.22 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf23Africa’s Development. A Preliminary Perspective Study. ECA. Addis

Ababa, 2008. P. 31.24 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf25 Ibid.26 . . 25.27 www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

rus.pdf28 . . 37.

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/download/

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/download/esp14.

http://www.ilo.org/public/russian/region/eurpro/moscow/info/publ/get08_

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/download/chap1a.

http://www.opec.ru/1150410.html

http://www.opec.ru/1318911.html






29 Lubker M., Labor Shares. ILO. Technical Brief No. 1. Geneva. 2007.30 :

. . , 2005. . 13.31 : -

. / . . . ., 2006. . 84-85.32 Decent Work for Africa’s Development. ILO. Geneva, 2003. P. 9.33 The World Bank. World Development Indicators 2009. P. 108-112.34 o ( )

2008 . . , 2008. . 51, 57.35 ( )

2008 . . , 2008. . 59.36 The World Bank. World Development Indicators 2009. P. 113-115.37 Ibidem.38 Ibid. P. 79-80.39 Ibidem.40 Ibid. P. 82.41 , 2007. . , 2007. . 9.42 www.wdsbeta.worldbank.or43 Global Economic Prospects. Economic Implications of Remittances

and Migration. The World Bank. Wash., 2006, P. 91.44 Ibid. P. 78.45 , 2008.

. . , 2008. . 8.46 . . 16.

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471

SUMMARY

Over the last couple of years, many scientific articles and even"express monographs" on the transformation of the world economyhave been published around the world. Most of these publicationswere predictive. Their authors tried to predict what would happen ina year or two, how would the crisis affect the global economy as awhole and developing countries in particular. Readers werecaptivated by apocalyptic notes which dominated many predictions.The crisis was characterized as "unprecedented", the "deepest sincethe Great Depression", and even as a "turning point in the globaleconomy."

Today, after more than two years since its inception, it becomesevident that the dreadfulness of the crisis has often been exaggeratedby analysts. Indeed, the depth of the fall of financial indicators isimpressive. However, the reduction in the levels of actualproduction, though obvious and significant, looks much moremodest. Moreover, the timely departure from the liberal-marketfundamentalism allowed the authorities of the leading worldeconomies to apply quickly the levers of state regulation andseriously mitigate the most acute phase of the crisis and in someplaces reduce its duration.

Such a rapid transition into a phase of relative stabilization and,though uncertain, growth by itself reduced the political relevance ofthe grumble against banks around the world and of the rhetoric,which nearly got intense, about the need to restructure the globalmodel of economic relations. The latter was subjected to harsh criti-

472

cism with the beginning of the crisis. A whole system of intergov-ernmental negotiations and consultations on the restructuring of theglobal financial architecture (including the redistribution of votes inthe International Monetary Fund and attempts to replace the dollaras the world’s reserve currency), global regulation of financial mar-kets, and even on the introduction of a global tax on certain banktransactions was launched.

At some point, it seemed that the combined efforts of the younggrowing economies, notably of China, India, Brazil and also Russiaand South Africa, which joined them, would make it all come true.However, no miracle occurred. Moreover, powerful China suddenlyappeared much more circumspect and cautious in its actions thananalysts from the North and Northwest expected. Having raised itsposition in the global economy and finance to the level desirable andachievable at this stage, Beijing chose "not to rock the boat further"in vain. The proposals to introduce a new world reserve currencywere gradually muffled. Chinese authorities made tough publicstatements but, in fact, did not ignore Western demands to correctthe exchange rate of the yuan in the light of the situation in China’sforeign trade partners.

In short, the crisis, although it has stirred some deep processes oftransformation of the global economic model, has clearly notbrought the situation to the verge of its actual adjustment.

Against the backdrop of the above, the results of the impact ofthe crisis on African economies seem interesting and illustrative.This interest is, above all, due to an ambiguous situation on thecontinent arising from the vicissitudes of the rampant globaleconomic and financial disaster and from the unique Africanphenomenon of "prosperity in poverty". Unlike other developingregions – Asia and Latin America – the economies of sub-SaharanAfrica had been growing throughout 2008 and in 2009 the region asa whole managed to avoid a large-scale recession, at least in the realsector.

At the same time the population growth of developing countries,including Africa, will significantly influence the development of theworld economy. Forty-two years ago, the biologist Paul Ehrlich

473

warned in The Population Bomb that mass starvation would strike inthe 1970s and 1980s, with the world's population growth outpacingthe production of food and other critical resources. Thanks toinnovations and efforts such as the "green revolution" in farmingand the widespread adoption of family planning, Ehrlich's worstfears did not come to pass. In fact, since the 1970s, global economicoutput has increased and fertility has fallen dramatically, especiallyin developing countries.

The United Nations Population Division now projects thatglobal population growth will nearly halt by 2050. By that date, theworld's population will have stabilized at 9.15 billion people,according to the "medium growth" variant of the UN's authoritativepopulation database World Population Prospects: The 2008Revision. (Today's global population is 6.83 billion.) Barring acataclysmic climate crisis or a complete failure to recover from thecurrent economic malaise, global economic output is expected toincrease by two to three percent per year, meaning that globalincome will increase far more than population over the next fourdecades.

But twenty-first-century international security will depend lesson how many people inhabit the world than on how the globalpopulation is composed and distributed: where populations aredeclining and where they are growing, which countries are relativelyolder and which are more youthful, and how demographics willinfluence population movements across regions.

Even as the industrialized countries of Europe, North America,and Northeast Asia will experience unprecedented aging thiscentury, fast-growing countries in Africa, Latin America, the MiddleEast, and Southeast Asia will have exceptionally youthfulpopulations. Today, roughly nine out of ten children under the ageof 15 live in developing countries. And these are the countries thatwill continue to have the world's highest birthrates. Indeed, over 70percent of the world's population growth between now and 2050 willoccur in 24 countries, all of which are classified by the World Bankas low income or lower-middle income, with an average per capitaincome of under $3,855 in 2008.

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Many developing countries have few ways of providingemployment to their young, fast-growing populations. Would-belaborers, therefore, will be increasingly attracted to the labormarkets of the aging developed countries of Europe, North America,and Northeast Asia. Youthful immigrants from nearby regions withhigh unemployment – Central America, North Africa, and SoutheastAsia, for example – will be drawn to those vital entry-level andmanual-labor jobs that sustain advanced economies: janitors,nursing-home aides, bus drivers, plumbers, security guards, farmworkers, and the like. Current levels of immigration fromdeveloping to developed countries are paltry compared to those thatthe forces of supply and demand might soon create across the world.

Exacerbating twenty-first-century risks will be the fact that theworld is urbanizing to an unprecedented degree. The year 2010 willlikely be the first time in history that a majority of the world'speople live in cities rather than in the countryside. Whereas less than30 percent of the world's population was urban in 1950, according toUN projections, more than 70 percent will be by 2050.

Lower-income countries in Asia and Africa are urbanizingespecially rapidly, as agriculture becomes less labor intensive and asemployment opportunities shift to the industrial and service sectors.Already, most of the world's urban agglomerations – Mumbai(population 20.1 million), Mexico City (19.5 million), New Delhi(17 million), Shanghai (15.8 million), Calcutta (15.6 million),Karachi (13.1 million), Cairo (12.5 million), Manila (11.7 million),Lagos (10.6 million), Jakarta (9.7 million) – are found in low-income countries. Many of these countries have multiple cities withover one million residents each: Pakistan has eight, Mexico 12, andChina more than 100. The UN projects that the urbanized proportionof sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double between 2005 and 2050,from 35 percent (300 million people) to over 67 percent (1 billion).China, which is roughly 40 percent urbanized today, is expected tobe 73 percent urbanized by 2050; India, which is less than 30percent urbanized today, is expected to be 55 percent urbanized by2050. Overall, the world's urban population is expected to grow by 3billion people by 2050.

475

This urbanization may prove destabilizing. Developingcountries that urbanize in the twenty-first century will have farlower per capita incomes than did many industrial countries whenthey first urbanized. The United States, for example, did not reach65 percent urbanization until 1950, when per capita income wasnearly $13,000 (in 2005 dollars). By contrast, Nigeria, Pakistan,and the Philippines, which are approaching similar levels ofurbanization, currently have per capita incomes of just $1,800–$4,000 (in 2005 dollars).

International terrorism might also originate in fast-urbanizingdeveloping countries (even more than it already does). With theirneighborhood networks, access to the Internet and digitalcommunications technology, and concentration of valuable targets,sprawling cities offer excellent opportunities for recruiting,maintaining, and hiding terrorist networks.

During the Cold War, Western strategists divided the world intoa "First World," of democratic industrialized countries; a "SecondWorld," of communist industrialized countries; and a "ThirdWorld," of developing countries. These strategists focused chieflyon deterring or managing conflict between the First and the SecondWorlds and on launching proxy wars and diplomatic initiatives toattract Third World countries into the First World's camp. Since theend of the Cold War, strategists have largely abandoned this three-group division and have tended to believe either that the UnitedStates, as the sole superpower, would maintain a Pax Americana orthat the world would become multipolar, with the United States,Europe, and China playing major roles.

Unfortunately, because they ignore current global demographictrends, these views will be obsolete within a few decades. A betterapproach would be to consider a different three-world order, with anew First World of the aging industrialized nations of NorthAmerica, Europe, and Asia's Pacific Rim (including Japan,Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as China after 2030,by which point the one-child policy will have produced significantaging); a Second World comprising fast-growing and economicallydynamic countries with a healthy mix of young and old inhabitants

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(such as Brazil, Iran, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, aswell as China until 2030); and a Third World of fast-growing, veryyoung, and increasingly urbanized countries with poorer economiesand often weak governments (including African countries).

The aging industrialized countries can also take various steps athome to promote stability in light of the coming demographictrends. First, they should encourage families to have more children.France and Sweden have had success providing child care, generousleave time, and financial allowances to families with young children.Yet there is no consensus among policymakers – and certainly notamong demographers – about what policies best encourage fertility.

More important than unproven tactics for increasing family sizeis immigration. Correctly managed, population movement canbenefit developed and developing countries alike. Given the dangersof young, underemployed, and unstable populations in developingcountries, immigration to developed countries can provide economicopportunities for the ambitious and serve as a safety valve for all.Countries that embrace immigrants, such as the United States, gaineconomically by having willing laborers and greater entrepreneurialspirit. And countries with high levels of emigration (but not so muchthat they experience so-called brain drains) also benefit becauseemigrants often send remittances home or return to their nativecountries with valuable education and work experience.

One somewhat daring approach to immigration would be toencourage a reverse flow of older immigrants from developed todeveloping countries. If older residents of developed countries tooktheir retirements along the southern coast of the Mediterranean or inLatin America or Africa, it would greatly reduce the strain on theirhome countries' public entitlement systems. The developingcountries involved, meanwhile, would benefit because caring for theelderly and providing retirement and leisure services is highly laborintensive. Relocating a portion of these activities to developingcountries would provide employment and valuable training to theyoung, growing populations of the Second and Third Worlds.

The changes in the global demographic picture are swift byhistorical standards and confront most countries with the problem of

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mass migration. Demographically "aging" countries of the Northface the burning issue of "compensating" for natural populationdecline with the inflow of people from southern regions that haverelatively "excessive" population growth. Russia, which occupiesone of the leading positions in the world in terms of physical"volume" of migration, still doesn’t have a developed andimplemented articulate migration policy. Meanwhile, the processesof depopulation have been taking place in a large number of Russianregions for many decades and have led to both an absolute decline inpopulation and to the growing deficit of economically activepopulation. Both have serious economic, social and politicalrepercussions. Therefore the issue became one of the key obstaclesto the country’s overall development and directly affects the imageof Russia in the modern world.

The monograph for the first time in domestic science aims toprovide a comprehensive study of migration from the South and theEast to the North and the West, as well as Africa's role in theseprocesses. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of economicand other activities of immigrants, the impact of migrants’remittances on the balance of payments of donor and recipientcountries, the issues of preservation of cultural and civilizationalidentity of a host society, the regulation of labour and reduction ofillegal migration and associated criminal and shadow economy.

The intensification of migration flows from the South to theNorth is primarily associated with the aging of population indeveloped countries. Demographically "aging" countries of theNorth face the burning issue of "compensating" for naturalpopulation decline with the inflow of people from southern regionsthat have relatively "excessive" population growth. The processes ofdepopulation of a large number of European countries and Russianregions have been taking place for many decades and have led toboth an absolute decline in population and to the growing deficit ofeconomically active population. Both have serious economic, socialand political repercussions.

Population shortfall in the North, including in Russia, doesn’t ofcourse mean inviting everyone to migrate to a new place without

478

any selection. In recent years, host countries have increased selectiv-ity in terms of professional skills and qualifications of immi-grants. Priority is given firstly to specialists capable of working inhigh-tech industries, and secondly to specialists in industries ofmiddle technological level that lack sufficiently skilled man-power. The first kind of selection is more typical of Western Europeand the U.S., the second one - of Russia. In the latter case, specificmechanisms for the mobilization of labour resources, their territorialdistribution and rational utilization have not been yet sufficientlydeveloped.

However, the main cause of labour migration from the South tothe North continues to be the income inequality of developed anddeveloping countries. In 1975 the average per capita income in high-income countries was 41 times higher than in low-income countries,but presently this gap is equal to 66. Therefore, many Africansconsider emigration to be the only way to improve their livingconditions and the living conditions of their families.

On the other hand, entrepreneurs from developed countries arealso interested in using immigrant labour. This is due, primarily, tothe desire to reduce production costs (particularly labour costs) aswell as to the necessity to mobilize manpower during periods ofproduction growth and to a shortfall of workers in industrial sectorswith harsh or adverse working conditions. In the era of economicglobalization the reduction of production costs is essential tocompetition in domestic and foreign markets.

Another reason for the intensification of migration flows inAfrican countries is the backward structure of employment in somestates of the continent. More than half of the working population ofAfrica is engaged in small-scale low-productivity agriculture, whichis facing competition from the modern and state-subsidizedagricultural sector of developed countries. Millions of rural familiesin Africa go bankrupt each year and join the ranks of domestic(village - city), regional and international migrants.

Modern emigration from Africa is made up of very inhomoge-neous flows, which fact clearly determines the differentiation oftheir socio-economic impact on host societies. Some of these flows

479

are initiated by a host country, and then they are subject to regula-tion, but a substantial proportion of immigrants is accepted on hu-manitarian grounds or arrives illegally, without being subjected toselection or control.

In the structure of migration, there are four main categories:economic migrants, reuniting family members, refugees and illegalmigrants; the ratio between these categories varies in individualcountries. Because of the relatively low proportion of migrants whoare motivated by better employment opportunities, the volume andstructure of immigration do not always correspond to the basiceconomic needs of a host society. Its impact on the level of economicactivity and on the ratio of working and non-working population istwofold.

In terms of national composition of immigrants, groups that areethnically distant from core populations of receiving countries tendto dominate. Ethnical differences are often accompanied not only byother types of demographic behaviour of migrants (e.g. largefamilies), but also by considerable difficulties in the adaptation ofmigrants to their new environment.

The latter circumstance leads, on the one hand, to extra spendingby host countries, and, on the other hand, to the active use oftraditional and alternative ways of living by migrants, whichfacilitates wide dissemination of types of economic activities basedon ethnic solidarity (ethnic economy). A “black labour” market alsoforms in host countries, which acts as a mechanism for using illegallabour migration in order to increase profits through using cheaplabour.

Although the level of education and professional qualificationsof immigrants, as well as of indigenous populations, has an obvioustendency to increase, in general it is usually lower than that of localresidents, and the professional and qualification composition ofimmigrants is more polarized.

In recent years, besides quantitative changes, there took placesignificant qualitative changes in migration movements from theSouth to the North.

480

First of all, noteworthy is the increase in the proportion of youngpeople, women and children in migration flows. For example, theproportion of youth (persons under 25 years) in the total number ofAfrican migrants exceeds 25%, while the proportion of womenexceeds 30%, which suggests the feminization of migration.

The length of stay of migrants in countries of employment hasalso increased: it is now 10 years in the EU and more than 20 yearsin Germany.

There is also a growing migration of scientists and highly skilledworkers. The "brain drain" from African countries annually exceeds200,000 people. The total annual costs of this process are close to50–60 billion dollars.

Migration with an aim to obtain professional education andtraining is also increasing. Such training is organized by the EUmember states in order to penetrate EU markets with the help ofcadres trained by them.

The scale of individual migration of professionals andbusinessmen is also increasing. A new category of businessimmigrants - investors from North African countries (mostlyLibyans, Tunisians and Egyptians) – has emerged.

The monograph examined the overall economic impact ofmigration from Africa and demonstrated it effect on wages, welfare,labour market, production volumes, taxes and government spendingin donor countries and recipient countries.

The assessments of the impact of immigration on economicgrowth are ambiguous. Most studies indicate that the impact ofimmigration on growth is positive. For example, in the EU anincrease in the level of net migration by 1% leads to an increase ingrowth rates by 0.1%. A population increase of 1% owing toimmigration can lead to an increase in GDP by 1.15%. Whilecreating added value in host countries, the immigrants also areconsuming goods and services. The resulting ripple effect ultimatelycontributes to economic growth. Some immigrants invest in ownbusinesses, which makes a positive impact on the economy.

Average wages in host countries are decreasing due to the influxof migrants. As a result, the penetration of labour markets by a large

481

number of unskilled workers and their employment in those sectors,in which national work forces prefer not to work, maintain lowwages (especially in case of employing illegal migrants).

Immigration levels affect the volume of tax revenues and publicexpenditures. Tax revenues grow at the expense of qualifiedprofessionals, as they have higher incomes and do not require publicspending on their education. However, the majority of unskilledworkers need government support, which increases public spendingin recipient countries. The status of illegal immigrants keeps themfrom using social security benefits and welfare payments, sogovernment spending on them is insignificant.

Migration affects the labour markets of labour exportingcountries. Under adverse economic circumstances and whenunemployment in African countries grows labour migration can to acertain extent solve the problem of employment and reduce socialtensions in society.

Re-emigration of workers who received high qualificationsabroad can contribute to GDP growth in a donor country. Studiesconducted by the International Labour Organization in labourexporting countries suggest that immigrants are more ready for newactivities and take an active part in the development of new forms ofeconomy. In some North African countries, for example, returningmigrants have managed to grow new crops and to introduce newproduction methods. Labour shortages caused by emigration canstimulate positive technological changes, including better use ofmanpower and other resources.

At the same time, the "brain drain" has negative consequencesfor a donor country, which not only loses its scientific potential, butalso has to replace emigrants by making additional investment ineducation and training.

At present the share of the African continent in the total amountof official remittances is relatively small and amounts to 15%, whilethe share of sub-Saharan Africa is only 5%. The main recipients ofremittances are countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Nigeria,Sudan, Uganda, Lesotho, Senegal and Mauritius. Remittances con-stitute a significant part of GDP in many countries. In particular this

482

applies to Lesotho (23%), Cape Verde (13.5%), Burkina Faso (6%)and Benin (4.5%). The African continent on the whole receivedabout 42 billion money transfers in 2009. Given the fact that thebanking system in African countries is not sufficiently developed,much of these remittances are received through unofficial chan-nels. The preference given to unofficial money transfers is also dueto the high cost of official transfers, which sometimes is 10-15% ofthe total amount of a remittance. According to the World Bank ex-perts, the amount of unofficial remittances to African countries is 2–3 times the amount of funds transferred through official channels. Ina country such as Uganda, for example, the share of official remit-tances is only 20% of all funds sent into the country by emigrants. Inmany African countries remittances play a significant role in sociallife. For millions of poor African families remittances make upnearly half of all cash income that they spend on improving housingconditions, on consumer goods, as well as on investments in settingup their own, primarily construction, businesses, as well as educa-tion and health.

The monograph analyzes the main features of the identity crisisof immigrants and native population and the possibility ofovercoming this crisis on the basis of public policy on integration. Itis concluded that the global financial crisis that erupted in theautumn of 2008 and transformed into an economic crisisdramatically changed the situation on the global labour market. It isnot ruled out that the crisis could lead to a significant relative andeven absolute reduction in international migration and to changes inthe structure and direction of migration flows in the upcoming fewyears, thus affecting the socio-economic situation in Africa, the EUand Russia. The realistic assessment of contemporary migrationprocesses between the South and the North, which is presented inthis monograph, makes it possible to predict the results of theupcoming expansion in the reception of immigrants, so that thestructure of immigration is the most adequate to the needs of theeconomy and society as a whole.

In the monograph the role of human capital in national devel-opment strategies of Africa has been researched. The global qualita-

tive and quantitative transformation of human capital was revealed,which had manifested itself in the shift of its numerical growth to-wards Asia and Africa. Demographic, social, and educational com-ponents of human capital have been studied. The necessity of use ifinternational cooperation on the global scale and with African coun-tries in the spheres of employment, education, and health wereproved. It was shown on factual material accumulated during thefield studies that human capital has direct bearing to social factors offorce in individual states. In the countries with human values in fo-cus societies are more consolidated. They play a more powerful roleon the world arena compared with the states with atomized and nonself-organized societies. The lack of definite social police leads toincreased unemployment, lower standard of living, increased socialand political tensions and finally to criminal economy.

The author came to the conclusion that the problem of humancapital formation acquires particular importance at turning points ofhuman development, connected with the changes of models ofglobal development on the one hand, and process of globalization onthe other. Such situation is relevant to Russia and Africa today.

The former only recently had been a leading country from thepoint of view of national wealth and human potential is now facingthe decrease in population and widespread poverty. Africa, on thecontrary, is the global leader in rates of population growth among allthe continents. It cannot secure the adequate conditions for thedevelopment of its human potential.

The author came to the conclusion that Africa’s and Russia’sdevelopment vectors have to be oriented towards maximizing andoptimal use of the social component. Such an approach will allow toincrease the competitiveness of real production, which globally de-pends on the supply of human capital. Both Russia and Africa as netraw materials exporters have to use excessive profits of monopoliesfor stimulating entrepreneurship in the hi-tech spheres, for the in-crease of scientific and technical potential, education and healthcareas well as for the effective increase of the standard of living of thepopulation. This will allow both of them to occupy an honorableplace in the global division of labor.

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