1980s- present: Peace Process and Challenges of the Future

Chronology

• 1982: Israeli invasion of Lebanon

• 1987: Palestinian uprising (intifada) in the Occupied Territories

• 1991: Gulf War and Madrid Conference

• 1993: Oslo Accords

• 1996: election of Netanyahu and beginning of breakdown of Accords

• 1998: Wye River

• 2000: the other Camp David and al-Aqsa intifada

• 2002: invasion and re-occupation of Palestinian lands

• 2003: new Israeli and possibly Palestinian elections

Background: situation in the Occupied territories, 1970s-1908s

(L) Beach Camp (Gaza), (M) Identity cards for Palestinians, (R) Gaza alley

House demolition Israeli Soldiers, al-`Amari CampRamallah

Occupied Territories, 1970s-1980s

• Economic situation

– Captive labor force

– taxes

• Political situation

– Settlements: 1967-1977: 770 1978-1977: 6,000 • Repression and control

– Land confiscations, house demolitions

– Movement restrictions (identity cards, etc)

– Imprisonment: administrative detention

– 1976 elections

• Palestinian politics and development of civil society

Light gray = IsraeliCivil and securityControl

Dark gray = Palestinian autonomous area

Medium gray = PalestinianAutonomous area but joint controlWith Israel

Blue circles, square, triangles =Israeli settlements

Israeli invasion of Lebanon, 1982

• Goals of “Peace for Galilee”

• Issue of deceit (Sharon)

• Chronology of events

– June 6 attack

– Siege of Beirut (summer)

– Ceasefire, Aug. 18

– Election (Aug) of Gemayel, assassination (Sep. 14)

– Sabra and Shatila massacre (Sep. 15-16)

• Marines and bombing, 1983

Effects of invasion

• PLO and Palestinians

• Israel

• Lebanon

• Groundwork for intifada

The intifada: some points

• Political opening

• Standing of Palestinians

• Gulf War and change of course

The intifada• “There was something in the air”

• Stages and tactics: organized resistance; civil disobedience; strikes; leaflets; economic boycott; demonstrations

• Unified National Leadership of the Uprising (UNLU)

• Islamist element; Hamas

• Gaza: 42% land expropriated since 1967. 70% population on land one fifteenth size of West Bank

Political demands and international arena

• Fourteen Points– Independent state/PLO– Coexistence w/Israel (recognition; two-state)– International conference (UN)– Stop settlements and land confiscations– Cancel special taxes

• 1988 Palestine National Council (Algiers– Declaration of Palestinian state (recognition)

– Acceptance of 242 and 338• US-PLO dialogue (called off 1989)• Repression, 1989• Labor withdrawal from national unity

government, 1989• Changing directions, 1990 and invasion of

Kuwait

The Gulf War: background

• Regional tensions• Iraq-Kuwait tensions• Iraq’s appeal to

deeper grievances in the region

• All of above led to attack, Aug. 2, 1990

The war

• Desert Shield (Oct. ’90)• Desert Storm (Nov.);

offensive begins Jan. 16• War finished: Feb. 27, 1991• The Aftermath: uprisings

(Shiites, Kurds)• “Safe havens,” May 1991

Aftermath

• UN Security Council Resolution 687:

– UN inspections

– Return of stolen property/compensation

– 1963 boundaries

– Embargo on food &emergency goods lifted

– Ban on oil and export to be negotiated

• Casualties, damage, politics, refugees

• “New world order”?

Toward Peace….?

• Situation of PLO• Madrid Conference

(Oct., 1991)• Situation of Israel (loan

guarantees, Labor victory, June 1992)

• Oslo: secret talks (winter 1993)

Haidar Abd al-Shafi and Hanan Ashrawi

Oslo Accords: in theory

• Declaration of Principles (DOP)

• 5-yr interim agreement:– Withdrawal from Gaza-

Jericho

– Council election

– Redeployment

– Permanent status negotiations (slated for 1995-1998)

Oslo Accords: reality

• 1994 Jordan agreement

• Nov. 4, 1995 Rabin assassination

• Spring ’96: bus bombings, Lebanon adventure, Netanyahu elected

• March 1997 settlement construction

• More bombings

Problems/critique of Oslo

• Inequality; lack of reciprocity

• Vagueness; unequal balance

• Autonomy: people not territory

• Military law

• Israeli control issues (Council, e.g.)

• Israeli security issues

Effects

• Restrictions and closures• Land expropriations• Economy• Disillusionment• Failure of Wye, Camp David II (August 2000)• Sharon’s visit to Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount (Sep. 2000) and

al-Aqsa intifada• Invasion and re-occupation

Proposed map of Camp David II (summer 2000)

Orange = proposedPalestinian sovereignty

Light tan = initially Israeli-designatedSecurity zone, to be transferred toPalestinian sovereignty

Blue areas and blue triangles = Israeli Cities and settlements shownprojected size

Blue lines (==) = network of existingOr planned Israeli thoroughfares

Where are we now?

Bus bombing by Hamas