1967-2017: evolving tornado prediction evolving tornado prediction ... fermi-lab/wgn severe weather...
TRANSCRIPT
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1967-2017: Evolving
Tornado Prediction
Edward Fenelon, NOAA/NWS Chicago, IL
Fermi-Lab/WGN Severe Weather Seminar – April 8, 2017
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Northern Illinois’ Worst Tornado Disaster
Belvidere F4 Tornado
Lake Zurich F4 Tornado
Oak Lawn F4 Tornado
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Advancements since 1967
– Weather Radar
– Weather Satellites
– Atmospheric Computer Models
– Weather Research and Understanding
– Communications
• Storm Spotters
• Amateur Radio
• Social Media, Smart Phones
– Collaborative Weather Enterprise
• Together we are saving lives!
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Weather Radar - 1967
Whiton et al. WAF 1998
WSR-57 Radar: Single PPI display, manual RHI to the right, used cathode ray tube technology employing vacuum
tubes, electron guns, and a phosphorescent screen.
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Weather Radar - 1967
Chicago Daily News
Oak Lawn Public Library
Belvidere
Tornado
Radar image from the moment the Belvidere tornado was at its peak.
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Weather Radar 1967 – 2017
Doppler
Effect
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Weather Radar 1967 – 2017
Significant advancement since 1967 – Doppler effect - An increase (or decrease) in
the frequency of sound or light waves as the source and observer move toward (or
away from) each other.
The effect causes the sudden change in pitch noticeable in a passing siren.
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Weather Radar 1967 – 2017
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Weather Radar - 2017
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Weather Radar - 2017
Link to GIF
Dual Polarization
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Weather Satellite - 1967
The first picture of Earth from a weather satellite, taken
by the TIROS-1 satellite on April 1, 1960.
ATS-1, w/its Spin-scan cloud-cover camera, provided the
first full disk image of Earth ever taken from geostationary
orbit. - December 11, 1966
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Weather Satellite - 1967
Link to GIF
Satellite Loop from ATS 3 (Applications Technology Satellite Launched 11.5.1967)
Early satellite images were rough and showed little detail!
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“A
whole
new
world!”
Weather Satellites - 2017
GOES
R/16
Preliminary
Non-Operational
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Weather Satellites - 2017
Preliminary
Non-Operational
Link to GIF
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GOES-16 Visible Satellite Loop March 17, 2017
Overlaid with 1-Minute Lightning Data (non-GOES)
Weather Satellites - 2017
Link to GIF
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Atmospheric Models - 1967
View of the electronic computer complex
at the National Meteorological Center,
circa 1965.
A meteorologist at the console of the IBM
7090 electronic computer in the Joint
Numerical Weather Prediction Unit.
U. S. Weather Bureau
U. S. Weather Bureau
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Atmospheric Models - 1967
Improvement in horizontal resolution for modeling
from 1966 to 2001, by showing the terrain resolution.
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Atmospheric Models - 2017
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Atmospheric Models - 2017
3km NAM Nest Simulated Radar Reflectivity
April 5, 2017
Supercells resolved by the model
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Research to Operations 1967
1960s SELS Analysis Area
Tornado Watch – April 21, 1967 Surface
Composite
Type 1
Tornado Air Mass
Tornado
Producing
Synoptic
Patterns
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Research to Operations 2017
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Research to Operations 2017
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Research to Operations 2017
NWS/SPC Outlooks leading up to Feb 28, 2017 Outbreak
Day 3 Day 2 Day 1
Day 1 Tor Prob Prelim Reports
Tornado Wind Hail
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Emphasis on Spotters
• Storm spotters existed in 1967
– Were unorganized and scattered sporadically
• Greater emphasis on creating a spotter
network
– Natural Disaster Warning system
• (NADWARN)
– Became known as SKYWARN
– Continually educate
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Amateur Radio Operations
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NOAA Weather Radio
• Only ~60 stations prior to 1967 – 125 by 1974 outbreak -> 300-400 following
• Today – 1025 stations covering
97% of the U.S.
• All hazards network
“The smoke detector of severe weather”
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Social Media 2017
.
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Communications 1967
Weather Teletype
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Communications 1967
“…we found most people who were at home were aware of
the watch and warning from listening to it on the radio. But
it was those persons who were not at home… here was
where the high death toll resulted.”
“Most of those killed were people who were not in a
position to hear the warnings because they were away from
home.”
- Weather Bureau survey, April 1967
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WEA is…
Wireless
Emergency
Alert
• Automatic, text-like message informing you of
dangerous situations
• No charges to receive a WEA message
• WEA messages have a special tone and vibration
Go to… www.ctia.org/wea
If you… Have WEA messages enabled
And are by a cell tower covering a
Tornado (Flash Flood) Warning polygon
You will automatically receive message
telling you of a Tornado (Flash Flood)
Warning.
Mobile Smart Phones 2017
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Communications 2017
www.weather.gov/subscribe
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Collaborative Partnerships
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Collaborative Partnerships
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Collaborative Partnerships
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Acknowledgements…
Tom Skilling
WGN
Fermi-Lab
Jim Allsopp
Dick Wagenmaker
Mike Bardou
Brian Smith
Matt Friedlein
Stephen Rodriguez
Ricky Castro
THANK YOU!