15/09/2015dr. j. a. cunge 1 hydraulics modelling software comments on history, research, market,...

19/04/23 Dr. J. A. Cunge 1

HYDRAULICSMODELLING SOFTWARE

COMMENTS ON

HISTORY, RESEARCH, MARKET, DEVELOPMENT

& AVAILABILITY

Hydraulics modelling software

19/04/23 Dr. J. A. Cunge 2


RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT:

EVOLUTION BY INTERACTION BETWEEN

CONCEPTUALISATION, FORMULATION, NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS

AND

TOOLS (hardware & software )

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conceptualisationcomputational hydraulics

applications

Informatic tools

DEVELOPPEMENT

MECHANISM

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MARKET AND APPLICATIONS

INTERACTION BETWEEN:

- DEMAND

- STATE OF KNOWLEDGE

- AVAILABILITY OF THE TOOLS

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TWO KINDS OF DEMAND, TWO KINDS OF EVOLUTION :

- TECHNICAL, INTEGRATING NEW KNOWLEDGE

- COMMERCIAL/ EVERYDAY ENGINEERING

EVOLUTION OF THE TECHNICAL DEMAND - EXAMPLE OF RESERVOIR STUDIES

19/04/23 Dr. J. A. Cunge 6


Reservoir hydraulics problem until 1960

h = h (Q,x), v = Q/A

Bresse:

or

Schoklitsch, Rühlmann, Tolkmitt:

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EVOLUTION OF THE TECHNICAL DEMAND :

STRONG DEMAND :

1960 - steady state flow 1D backwater

1970 - 1D wave propagation following turbines and gates manoeuvres

1980 - unsteady 2D vertical, variable density (heat, sediments, salinity)

WEAK DEMAND :Until 2000 - unsteady 3D, variable density, water

quality, ecosystems

19/04/23 Dr. J. A. Cunge 8


• 30 YEARS OF STRONG TECHNICAL DEMAND

DUE TO NEEDS OF ENGINEERING WORKS

• BUT « soft » TECHNICAL DEMAND:SOCIAL COST AND WATER

QUALITY DID NOT FIND THEIR EXPRESSION IN BUDGET TERMS IN DECISION MAKING AND MANAGEMENT

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1990-2000: • explosive COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR

HYDRAULICS SIMULATION TOOLS DUE TO

NEEDS OF ENGINEERING WORKS GLOBAL USE & SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS, EXISTENCE OF INDUSTRIAL SOFTWAREPROACTIVE MARKETING OF EXISTNG INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE

• VERY LIMITED COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR SOCIAL COST AND WATER QUALITY TOOLS

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1990 - 2000

- EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF PCs

- EXPLOSIVE MARKETING AND USE OF INDUSTRIAL MODELLING SOFTWARE

• CONCEPT OF « ENCAPSULATED TECHNOLOGY » - 4th GENERATION OF MODELS

• CONCEPT OF BRILLIANT FUTURE OF IA AND 5th GENERATION => FLOP!

• CONCEPT OF HYDROINFORMATICS

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2000 - 2014

-GENERALISATION OF THE USE OF SIMULATION TOOLS IN ENGINEERING ACTIVITIES-STABILISATION OF THE MARKET OF THE TOOLS WITH LIMITED NUMBERS OF MAIN ACTORS-RESEARCH DEVELOPMENTS CONCERNING ALGORITHMS WITHOUT BEING APPLIED IN MARKETED SYSTEMS-DEVELOPMENTS FOR WATER QUALITY AND ECOHYDRAULICS BUT LIMITED APPLICATIONS - HYDROINFORMATICS – MANAGEMENT OF INFORMATION IN WATER SECTOR (MODELLING, NETWORKS, RESERVOIRS, FLOODS) .

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conceptualisation informatics tools

1995HYDROINFORMATICS

1996M.B. Abbott1997 4th GENERATION GIS, UNIX1998 DHI1987 3rd GENERATION MAINFRAMES - IBM 340

IAHR Committee1960 2nd GENERATION FORTRAN

SOGREAH, A. Preissmann IBM 650

1953 J.J. Stoker 1st application

1927 CFL – numerical theory

1895 Massau & characteristics

1871 B. de St.-Venant equations

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UNSA – Hydro-Europe - Software, models and simulation

conceptualisation informatics toolsModelling software and

Future ????? expertise as the service ?????

2005-2014-3D & 2D models & market availbale software with hundred thousands points of the grid.- Integration of facilitators (GIS, ARC) and fluid and pollution modelling. Parallel computation - - Some understanding of the Cluster networks uncertainty of numerical modelling New lap-top capacities results (SIMHYDRO) INTERNET !!!

1990-2014Massive marketing of “encapsulated” modelling softwareMassive use of modelling with market available codes:MIKE,TELEMAC & MASCARET, DELFT 3D, ISIS, HEC, etc.

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SINCE 1995?

Conceptualisation – NOTHING REALLY NEW

Algorithms - INDIVIDUAL RESULTS (Guinot, Kutija,…)

NOT INTEGRATED IN COMMERCIAL CODES

Massive applications :• engineering studies• encapsulation (management & forecasting systems)

▬►ICT developments independent of modelling needsSTAGNATION ?

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NUMERICAL METHODS USED :Finite Differences Method (FDM)Finite Elements Method (FEM)Finite Volumes Method

PROGRESS IN NUMERICS: Detailed treatment of discontinuities (jumps, shocks) Better understanding of boundary conditions for 2D

BUT

NOT INTEGRATED IN COMMERCIAL CODES!!!

WHY?

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LACK OF DEMAND

LACK OF INSTITUTIONAL FINANCING

WEAK PROFIT MARGINS OF ENGINEERING REFUSAL OF

INVESTMENTRISKS

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TALKING ABOUT ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS

NEW SINCE 2000: - 2D AND 3D MODELS USING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS COMPUTATIONAL POINTS!

-NOVELTIES THANKS TO THE COMPUTER AND ICT EVOLUTION BUT NO PROGRESS IN MATHEMATICAL OR PHYSICAL UNDERSTANDING

-LINKS WITH DATA PROCESSING (GIS, DTM, etc.) AND GRAPHICAL TREATMENT OF RESULTS

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MODELLING CODES – CURRENT SITUATION

• INDUSTRIAL DIVISION OF WORK - DEVELOPERS/USERS

• AVAILABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL CODES ON THE MARKET

TWO ILLUSIONS : « EVERYTHING can be found free on the WEB » « We can develop this ourselves from “open software” » !!!


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• RESULTS OF HISTORICAL EVOLUTION 1980 - 1990 In Europe:

- Emergence of suppliers of industrial-quality codes

- Impossibility within market framework to catch up with the latter (prohibitive costs)

- Two types of users

* those who have real expertise

* «slaves» of 2 or 3 codes, limited to standard applications

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traditional consultants

High Tech:laboratories

developers andmodellers

Golden age: high margins,Strong demand

Engineering companies Users of industrial codes

Industrial age : weak margins,Ferocious competition, new kind of demand

Developers and suppliers of encapsulated products

Survive with obsolete, no investment, hidden maintenance costs

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SOME APPLIED MARKET AVAILABLE CODES:

RIVERS AND INUNDABLE PLAINS

ONE DIMENSIONAL PROBLEMS (1-D)

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MIKE 11 Owner: DHI (Denmark)

Developer: DHI (Denmark)

ISIS Owner: HALCROW (UK) &

Developer: Wallingford Research (UK)

MASCARETOwner: EDF (France)Developer: EDF (Fraance)

SOBEK

Owner: Delft Hydraulics (NL)

Déveloper: Delft Hydraulics (NL)

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Free of charge available code:

HEC RAS Developer & Owner: US Army Corps of

Engineers

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SOME OF MARKET AVAILABLE CODES:

RIVERS AND INUNDABLE PLAINS , COASTAL AREAS

TWO DIMENSIONAL PROBLEMS (2-D)

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MIKE 21 Owner: DHI (Denmark)Developer: DHI (Denmark)

TELEMAC 2-D

Owner: EDF (France)

Developer: EDF (France)

Commercialisation:

ARTELIA Group (FR),

HR Wallingford

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Delft 3D/2D

Owner: Delft Hydraulics (NL)Developer: Delft Hydraulics (NL)

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“CLOUD COMPUTING” Software as a Service (SaaS)

40% of USA companies in 2009 !!!

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Platform as a Service (Paas)And... In egngineering & modelling:

Software & Expertise as a Service

Near Future possibilities


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INTEGRATION OF DENSE TELESENSOR NETWORKS WITHIN MODELLING PRACTICE & REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT, DRONES

MASSIVE APPLICATION OF GPUs (graphical processing units) instead CPUs

FORM- RECOGNITION TECHNOLOGY (using GPUs) TO SCENARIO CHOICE FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT


15/09/2015dr. j. a. cunge 1 hydraulics modelling software comments on history, research, market,...

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