Monitoring the CAP

The role of indicators

Monitoring tools to feed and preserve the planet

10 September 2015

Fertilizers Europe Expo Milano event

Tassos Haniotis Director

Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations; communication

DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

2

Annual real commodity price indexes

Source: World Bank

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

(2010 = 100)

Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals & minerals

3

Monthly nominal commodity price indexes

Source: World Bank

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(2010 = 100)

Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals and minerals

FAO real food price indices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006

M01

2006

M04

2006

M07

2006

M10

2007

M01

2007

M04

2007

M07

2007

M10

2008

M01

2008

M04

2008

M07

2008

M10

2009

M01

2009

M04

2009

M07

2009

M10

2010

M01

2010

M04

2010

M07

2010

M10

2011

M01

2011

M04

2011

M07

2011

M10

2012

M01

2012

M04

2012

M07

2012

M10

2013

M01

2013

M04

2013

M07

2013

M10

2014

M01

2014

M04

2014

M07

2014

M10

2015

M01

2015

M04

2015

M07

(2002-04=100)

Dairy Cereals Food

4

5

CAP reform path and CAP budget, 1980-2020

Source: DG AGRI.

0,0%

0,1%

0,2%

0,3%

0,4%

0,5%

0,6%

0,7%

0,8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

billion EUR (current prices)

Export subsidies Other market measures Market expenditureCoupled support Decoupled support Direct payments green payments Other rural development agro-environmental measuresCAP as share of EU GDP

EU-28

actual expenditure 1980-2014

EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27

outlook 2015-2020

6

The new "greening" architecture of the CAP

Agricultural area (eligible for direct payments)

Cross compliance

Green direct payments

Rural development

Cu

mu

lati

ve

envi

ron

men

tal

ben

efit

s

Regulatory (Statutory

Management Requirements and Good Agricultural

Environmental Conditions)

Mandatory with financial

support (decoupled “green”

payment per hectare)

Voluntary with compensation

for cost incurred and income forgone

Implementation mechanism

7

Purpose of Monitoring & Evaluation

measure the performance of the CAP

assess contribution of CAP to broader EU objectives

necessary requirement for every policy using EU budget

opportunity for CAP to ensure its credibility

8

Key concepts of Monitoring & Evaluation

Monitoring

continuous process generating data on implementation (not impacts)

Evaluation

judges interventions according to results, impacts, needs

Indicators

aggregate data to allow quantification (& simplification) of phenomena

Intervention logic

systematic description of link between actions and objectives

9

CAP intervention logic

CAP general objectives

Viable food production

Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action

Balanced territorial development

CSF* thematic

objectives

Pillar I specific objectives Pillar II priorities

Maintain market stability

Meet consumer expectations

Maintain diverse agriculture across

the EU

CAP specific objectives

Enhance farm income

Improve agricultural competitiveness

Provide environmental public goods

Pursue climate change mitigation and

adaptation

Foster innovation Promote

socioeconomic development of rural

areas

*CSF: Common Strategic Framework including the EFRD, ESF, CF, EAFRD and EMFF

10

CAP M&E indicators

CAP general

objectives

CAP specific objectives

(Pillar I specific objectives, Pillar II

priorities)

Pillar I instruments & Pillar II measures Output indicators

Result indicators

Impact indicators

Situation & trends

Context indicators

A common set of impact indicators

• General objective: Viable food production • 1 Agricultural entrepreneurial income • 2 Agricultural factor income • 3 Agricultural productivity • 4 EU commodity price variability • 5 Consumer price evolution of food products • 6 Agricultural trade balance

• General objective :Sustainable management of natural resources & climate action • 7 Emissions from agriculture • 8 Farmland birds index • 9 HNV Farming • 10 Water abstraction in agriculture • 11Water quality • 12 Soil quality • 13 Soil erosion

• General objective : Balanced territorial development • 14 Rural employment rate • 15 Degree of rural poverty • 16 Rural GDP per capita

CAP Monitoring and Evaluation

Indicators and data available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-indicators/index_en.htm

Thank you for your attention!

12