14th july (tuesday), 2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice e-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

News are published with permission of ORYZA.com

July 14, 2015 Vol 5 ,Issue VII





Italian 2015 Rice Acreage Estimated to Increase 3.2% y/y to 226,600

Hectres

Jul 13, 2015

Based on the survey of Italian rice farmers, Ente Nazionale Risi, the National Agency for Rice

estimates Italian rice acreage to increase about 3.2% to around 226,600 hectares from around

219,532 tons in 2014.

About 50% or around 1,944 farmers have been surveyed. The agency has instructed all the

farmers to furnish their rice planting details by July 10, 2015

According to latest data available as on July 10, round varieties are expected to be planted in

about 57,700 hectares, up about 9.56% from around 52,667 hectares last year. Medium rice

acreage is expected to increase about 21.81% y/y to around 8,600 hectares. Long A acreage is

expected to increase about 21.14% y/y to around 126,600 hectares and Long B acreage is

expected to decline about 39.06% y/y to around 226,600 hectares.

Falling Production Expected to Tighten U.S. Rice Supplies in MY 2015-16

, Says USDA

Jul 13, 2015

In its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA

estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies at around 12.63 million tons, down about 4% from last

month's estimates of around 13.13 million tons due to an expected decline in production. It

expects U.S. long-grain rice supply at around 9.05 million tons. down about 6% from its last

month's estimate of around 9.62 million tons. However, it estimates U.S. short and medium grain

rice supply at around 3.47 million tons, slightly up from last month's estimates of 3.4 million

tons.

USDA estimates U.S. all rice production (milled basis) at around 9.39 million tons, down from

last month's estimate of 9.93 million tons due to an estimated decline in paddy rice acreage.

Long-grain rice production is estimated at around 6.92 million tons, down from last month's

estimate of 7.35 million tons; and short- and medium- grain production is estimated at around

2.47 million tons, down from last month's estimate of 2.59 million tons. It forecasts 2105-16

production to decline about 6% from an estimated 10.02 million tons last year.





U.S. 2015-16 paddy rice acreage

to estimated at around 1.108

million hectares, down from last

month's estimates of around 1.17

million hectares. It forecasts

2105-16 paddy rice acreage to

decline about 6% from an

estimated 1.18 million hectares

last year. USDA estimates 2015-

16 all rice use at around 10.89

million tons, down from last

month's estimates of around

10.93 million tons due to an

estimated decline in domestic &

residual use since exports are

estimated to be unchanged from

last month. It estimates domestic

& residual use of all rice at

around 5.90 million tons from

last month's estimates of around

5.94 million tons and the decline

is expected in long-grain

domestic use.It estimates 2015-

16 ending stocks 1.74 million

tons from last months's forecast

of 2.2 million tons due to an estimated decline in both long-grain and short-grain rice

stocks.USDA estimates an increase in the average farm price of all rice and long-grain rice.

Global Rice Quotes

July 13th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 395-405 ↑

Vietnam 5% broken 345-355 ↔

India 5% broken 385-395 ↑

Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↑

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 470-480 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔





Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 360-370 ↑


Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↑

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 350-360 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 445-455 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 395-405 ↑

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 370-380 ↓

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 490-500 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 350-360 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

European Commission Plans to Import Vietnam Rice at Zero Percent Duty Jul 13, 2015

The European Commission (EC) is planning to import rice from Vietnam at zero percent duty

within the framework of the negotiations on 'free trade agreement', according to the website

www.risoitaliano.eu.

The EC is reportedly planning to import round 76,000 tons of rice, including 30,000 tons of

jasmine rice, 30,000 tons of Long B milled rice and 16,000 tons of husked rice from Vietnam

under the agreement.

http://www.risoitaliano.eu/





Currently EU imports rice at zero percent duty from Asian least developed countries (LDCs)

such as Cambodia and Myanmar under the Everything But Arms (EBA) agreement. The latest

decision is not reportedly well received by the European rice growing sector, which has been

already urging the EC to curb increasing rice imports from the Asian LDCs in order to protect

the local rice sector.

The Italian rice sector, particularly, has been seeking a safeguard clause against rice imports

from Asian LDCs under the EBA agreement. However, with the latest development, there are

concerns among the Italian rice sector as well as other EU rice growers on the EC's plans

of adopting a safeguard clause against the EBA rice imports.

The European rice sector is now fearing whether the EU may also consider including Thailand

rice under the agreement eventually. They say the EU market is already flooded with the Asian

rice and is undermining the local rice varieties. The EU currently imports around 300,000 tons of

rice from the EBA countries.

FAO Estimates Indonesia 2015 Rice Imports to Decline Due to Favorable

Production Outlook





Jul 13, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Indonesia to import around

900,000 tons of rice in 2015, down about 10% from an estimated one million tons last year due

to a favorable outlook for 2015 aggregate rice production and self-sufficiency policies. It

estimates Indonesia's total cereal imports in 2015-16 at around 11.8 million tons, up about 2%

from around 11.57 million tons last year.

The FAO estimates Indonesia's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at around 75.6 million tons

(around 48.34 million tons of rice, basis milled), up about 7% from an estimated 70.61 million

tons (around 45.2 million tons of rice, basis milled) in 2014.

Harvesting of the 2015 main season paddy crop (mid-October to mid-May) is complete. Rains

have improved across the country since December 2014 despite a slow start of the 2014-15 rainy





season (November - March). Favourable weather conditions, coupled with diverse initiatives

launched by the government to support production, including the rehabilitation of irrigation

channels, distribution of subsidized seeds and fertilizers, are expected to increase the yields of

the 2015 main season, says the FAO. It also expects a slight expansion in area planted for the

2015 secondary season rice crop (June to mid-December), which is now at the planting stage.

The country's aggregate rice production is expected to be impacted by the onset of a weak to

moderate El Nino event. Global meteorological and oceanic institutions are predicting the El Nin

effect to continue throughout 2015 and first months of 2016.

The government has been aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production this year and

accordingly has been providing support to the sector.

Average rice prices have been increasing since September 2014 and have reached record levels

in March 2015. However, since April, prices reversed direction due to the government

intervention as well as increased supplies from the 2015 main season rice crop. However, prices

are supported by lower rice imports in January - May this year compared to the same period last

year. Currently, prices stand at around 9.875 million Rupiah (around $751) per ton, down from

around 10 million Rupiah (around $770) per ton in April 2015 and down about 12.5% from their

year ago levels, according to the FAO price data.

USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around

57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15

(October - September).

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Trade Lower as

Market Continues to Weigh USDA Report Results

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 15 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at

$10.935 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished with mixed results today;

Soybeans closed about 0.7% higher at $10.2900 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% lower at

$5.7550 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.7% higher at $4.5225 per bushel.

U.S. stocks rallied nearly 1% or more on Monday, following gains overseas, on news of a bailout

agreement between Greece and its creditors. European Council President Donald Tusk said early

on Monday that euro zone leaders reached an unanimous agreement with Greece after all-night

talks in Brussels to move forward with a bailout loan for the cash-strapped nation, provided

Athens implement tough reforms. To receive this third bailout, Greece's parliament must pass the

new rules in areas such as privatization, labor laws and pension reforms by Wednesday.





The 86 billion euro ($95.2 billion) in funds would come over three years. In the meantime, euro

zone finance ministers were expected to discuss Monday how to keep Greece financed before the

bailout deal is reached. Athens faces a 7 billion euro repayment deadline on July 20 to the

European Central Bank. European stocks jumped on news of the conditional Greece deal, with

the German DAX up about 1.5% and the STOXX Europe 600 up nearly 2%. In Asia, stocks

surged with the Nikkei up 1.57% and the Shanghai Composite leaping 2.4% as it extended a

recovery from a recent plunge.

No economic data or earnings of note are expected Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

traded up 176 points, or 0.99%, at 17,936. The S&P 500 traded up 18 points, or 0.86%, at 2,094,

with information technology leading nine sectors higher and utilities the only decliner. The

Nasdaq traded up 64 points, or 1.28%, at 5,061. Gold is trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is

seen trading unchanged, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.7% higher at

about 1:15pm Chicago time.

Friday, there were 1,154 contracts traded, up from 575 contracts traded on Thursday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 116 contracts to 9,395.

Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production to Increase 3%

y/y to 12.499 Million Tons

Jul 13, 2015

Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy

rice production at around 12.499 million tons (around 8.50 million tons, basis milled), up about

3% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and

slightly down from its June forecast of around 12.544 million tons.

Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.292 million hectares, down

about 3.4% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in the key rice

growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.548 million hectares in 2014-15,

down about 1% from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the

North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 747,600 hectares, down 7.5% from around

808,400 hectares in 2013-14.





Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.5 tons per hectare, up about 7.6%

from around 5.11 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.USDA estimates Brazil MY

2015-16 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 11.765 million tons (around 8 million

tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated 12.500 million tons (around 8.5 million

tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15. It estimates Brazil’s 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to decline

slightly to around 2.3 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one million tons

of rice and import around 550,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Philippines Rice Stocks Sufficient for 89 Days, Says BAS

Jul 13, 2015

The Philippines rice stocks have declined in June 2015 after increasing in April and May,

according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of June 1, 2015 reached around 3.02 million tons, down

about 5% from around 3.17 million tons recorded in May 2015, and up about 31% from around

2.31 million tons recorded during the same period last year.





According to the BAS, household stocks (which account for about 38.5% of total rice stocks in

the country) have reached around 1.16 million tons as of June 1, 2015, up about 7% from year-

ago levels of around 1.08 million tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks (which account for

about 36.7% of total stocks) have reached around 1.11 million tons as of June 1, 2015, up about

35% from their year-ago levels of around 820,000 tons. The rice stocks with the National Food

Authority (NFA) (which account for 24.8% of total stocks) stood at around 750,000 tons, up

about 83% from around 410,000 tons recorded in June 2014.

Month-on-month, household rice stocks are down about 22%, commercial warehouse rice stocks

are up about % and NFA rice stocks - in which about 91.5% are imported rice - are up about

22%, according to the BAS.

The BAS says that the Philippines' rice stocks as of June 1, 2015 are enough to last for 89 days

(household stocks are enough for 34 days, commercial warehouses stocks are enough for 33 days

and stocks with NFA are enough for 22 days).

The government is planning to ramp up imports to ensure adequate stocks and avoid price hikes

in the country. The National Food Authority (NFA) has decided to import 650,000 tons of rice





(200,000 tons from Thailand and 450,000 tons from Vietnam) under government-to-government

deals in 2015 to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season (June – September). It is further

planning to import 805,200 tons of rice through private importers under the WTO minimum

access volume (MAV) rule. It imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million

tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks

and control price hikes.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Dip with Futures; Crop Condition

Improves by 1%

Jul 13, 2015

The U.S. cash market was softer today falling in sympathy with the futures market as more

sellers came to the market looking to their remaining old crop before the upcoming harvest.

In the meantime, the USDA estimates that as of July 12th

, 30% of the crop had headed which

was 5% ahead of this time last year and 8% ahead of the previous 5-year average. As of now, the

USDA estimates that 18% of the rice crop in Arkansas had headed compared to , 17% in

California, 75% in Louisiana, 32% in Mississippi, 22% in Missouri, and 54% in Texas.

The USDA estimates that 71% percent of the crop in good to excellent condition, which was 1%

better than week and 1% better this time last year. As of now, the USDA estimates that 69% of

the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition compared to, 85% in California, 71% in

Louisiana, 78% in Mississippi, 59% in Missouri, and 53% in Texas.

Pakistan Targets to Produce 6.9 Million Tons of Milled Rice in 2015-16,

Says SUPARCO-FAO Report

Jul 13, 2015

In the July Crop Monitoring System Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan

(SUPARCO) and UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report that the Federal

Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the 2015- 16 (July - June) milled rice production

target at around 6.902 million tons (around 10.21 million tons, basis paddy) from around 2.836

million hectares. It is targeting an yield of around 2.434 tons per hectare in 2015-16.

The rice is majorly grown in Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan provinces.While transplanting

of the IRRI rice for the current kharif crop is ongoing, transplanting of basmati will be start in

July and complete in August. Based on the deliberations of field teams, SUPARCO reports that

the farmers are generally unwilling to sow this year's kharif crop due to marketing problems





faced last year. Some farmers are reportedly holding stocks from last year. They expect the rice

planting area to decline in some areas of southern and central Punjab and Sindh.

The FAO-SUPARCO expect higher water requirement due to a persisting heat wave in Karachi,

Larkana, Dadu, Hyderabad, Turbat, Sibbi and Southern

Punjab.

USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to

increase about 3% to around 6.9 million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) from

around 6.7 million tons last year.

Thai Rice Traders Urge Government to Speed Up Rotten Rice Sales

Jul 13, 2015





Thailand rice traders are urging the government to speed up sales of rotten rice stocks to take

advantage of the high demand in the market amid concerns of falling production due to drought

conditions, according to local sources.

Last week, the government decided to auction about 1.29 million tons of rotten rice to biogas

producers.

However, traders noted that the government should open the auction to general bidders in order

to get a better price. They noted that rotten rice can fetch about 4-5 baht per kilogram (around

$118 - $147 per ton). But inviting only biogas producers for auction may pull the price to as low

as 1-2 baht per kilogram (around $29 - $59 per ton), they said.

They assured that the traders would not mix rotten rice with rice meant for consumption as their

reputation would also be at stake.

The President of the Thai Rice Millers Association (TRMA) noted that both domestic and export

prices have improved over last three weeks. As of July 10, 2015, white paddy rice was quoted at

8,200 baht per ton (around $241) and jasmine paddy rice (Thai Hom Mali rice) was quoted at

13,000-15,000 baht per ton (around $382-$441). Export prices of Thai 5% rice are quoted at

around $390 per ton from around $381 per ton last week, and those of Thai Hom Mali rice

increased to around $1,046 per ton compared to $1,037 per ton last week.

Meanwhile, the Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) noted that

they have lowered the export target to around 9.5 million tons from around 10 million tons due to

a possible fall in production due to drought and increase in domestic demand, according to

Reuters.

However, they are expecting a higher buying interest from African countries.

Thailand Forecasts 2015 Main Rice Crop Output to Decline 14% to 23.3

Million Tons Due to Drought

Jul 13, 2015

Thailand's Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimates output from 2015 main rice crop,

which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline about 14% to

around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year due to persisting drought

conditions, according to Bloomberg.

The OAE estimates the 2015 main rice area to decline to around 56.7 million rai (around 22.68

million hectares) from around 61.8 million rai (around 24.72 million hectares) last year.





The Director of the Center for Agriculture Information told reports that production is expected to

decline across Thailand.

USDA Post Estimates MY 2015-16 Brazil Rice Exports to Remain Stable at

900,000 Tons

Jul 13, 2015

The USDA Post is estimating Brazil's MY 2015-16 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice exports at

around 900,000 tons, unchanged from MY 2014-15 and USDA's official estimates. The Post

says the pace of exports in 2015 until May has been generally low in line with the global trend.

Earlier, in April, the Post reported that with the U.S. relaxing trade restrictions with Cuba, Brazil

is concerned that the U.S. may cut into its market share in Cuba because of the competitive

pricing by the U.S. as well as its proximity and shipping costs. Cuba accounted for about 11% of

Brazil's rice exports in 2014 and remained the third largest importer of the Brazilian rice after

Venezuela and Senegal.

The Post estimates MY 2015-16 Brazil rice imports at around 700,000 tons, unchanged from MY

2014-15 and USDA's official estimates.





It estimates MY 2015-16 milled rice production at around 8.3 million tons, down about 2% from

last year; and up about 4% from USDA's official estimates, assuming normal weather. The Post

estimates Brazil's 2015-16 paddy rice acreage at last year's level of 2.45 million hectares.

The Post estimates 2015-16 Brazil's milled rice consumption at around 7.95 million tons, down

from last year's 8 million tons and unchanged from USDA's official forecasts. It estimates 2014-

15 Brazil's ending stocks to increase about 16% to around 1.082 million tons from an estimated

932,000 tons last year.

Thailand, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today;

India Rice Quotes Mixed

Jul 13, 2015





Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% , 25% broken rice, and parboiled rice by about

$5 per ton each to around $385-$395 per ton, $360-$370 per ton and $395-$405 per ton

respectively today. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per

ton to around $385-$395 per ton and lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton

to around $370-$380 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and

25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $375-$385 per ton and $335-$345 per ton

respectively. Vietnam rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday

and about a $40 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.

India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday and

about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton, up about a

$5 per ton from Friday.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday

and about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton.

India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25%

rice shown at around $335 - $345per ton, up about a $5 per ton from Friday.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $395 - $405 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from

Friday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, down about a $5 per ton

from Friday and about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 -

$425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam

100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at

around $295 - $305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice

shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

14th july (tuesday), 2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

News & Politics

rice supplies

rice use

italian rice acreage

medium rice acreage

paddy rice acreage

grain rice production

longgrain rice supply

medium grain rice supply