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Vol 5.Issue XIII

August 13,2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Un-Edited Version Rice Sowing Operations Almost Complete in

Pakistan, Says FAO-SUPARCO Report

Aug 13, 2015

In the July Crop Monitoring System Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan (SUPARCO)

and UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report that Pakistan has received heavy rains in

July due to the combined effect of monsoon and westerly disturbances leading to floods in some

northern regions.

However, there is no evidence so far that rice fields have been damaged by floods. The report says

the sowing of IRRI rice has been completed. The transplantation of basmati rice is in progress and

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will be completed in mid-August. The rice is majorly grown in Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan

provinces.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has reportedly fixed the 2015- 16 (July - June) milled

rice production target at around 6.902 million tons (around 10.21 million tons, basis paddy) from

around 2.836 million hectares. It is targeting an yield of around 2.434 tons per hectare in 2015-16.

Last month, based on the deliberations of field teams, FAO-SUPARCO reported that the farmers are

generally unwilling to sow this year's kharif crop due to marketing problems faced last year. They

expect the rice planting area to decline in some areas of southern and central Punjab and Sindh.

However, this month, the Federal Government has reportedly decided to provide a subsidy of Rs. 20

billion (around $196 million) on fertilizers to help rice and other farmers.

According to the FAO-SUPARCO report, Pakistan exported around 3.93 million tons of rice in FY

2014-15 (July - June), up about 6% from around 3.72 million tons in 2013-14. However, exports

declined by about 6% in terms of earnings due to a decline in global prices of rice. Pakistan is

reportedly holding stocks from last year's crop.

USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to increase

about 3% to around 6.9 million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) from around 6.7 million

tons last year.

Global Rice Quotes

August 13th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 375-385 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 340-350 ↔

India 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 340-350 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 405-415 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 485-495 ↔

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Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↓

Vietnam 25% broken 325-335 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 310-320 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 345-355 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 460-470 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 365-375 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 850-860 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

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Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-320 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 325-335 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Government of Ivory Coast Urged to Develop

Irrigation Facilities to Boost Rice Production

Aug 13, 2015

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The Head of the National Office of Rice Growing Department in Ivory Coast has urged the

government to develop irrigation facilities in the country to help boost rice production in the country,

China Post quoted local sources.

Currently, 85% of the Ivorian rice relies on rain and only one dam caters to rice fields in the northern

region, he says.

Ivory Coast produces only 60% of rice needed for annual domestic consumption of around 2.3

million tons and imports the rest. The African nation produced around 1.4 million tons of rice and

imported around 900,000 tons in 2014, according to the official.

He expressed concern that Ivorian farmers are shifting their focus from rice to other cash crops such

as cocoa and cashews for lack of proper support from the government. He stressed on the

importance of achieving self-sufficiency in rice and other food crops production in order to ensure

food security in the country. He also reiterated how prices of imported rice had skyrocketed in 2008

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during the 2008 riots. Such situations could be avoided with an increase in domestic production, he

adds.

The official also states that increasing population also demands more food and calls for effective

measures to increase rice and other important food crops.

USDA estimates Ivory Coast to produce around 1.34 million tons and import around 1.05 million tons

of rice in MY 2014-15 (October - September) to meet an annual demand of around 2.34 million tons.

Myanmar May Not Resume Rice Exports Until

November 2015

Aug 13, 2015

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Myanmar, which has imposed a temporary ban on rice exports after heavy rains and floods hit the

northern and western regions of the nations, may not resume rice exports until November this year,

local sources quoted an announcement by the Ministry of Commerce.

The Ministry reportedly noted in the announcement that around one million acres (about 400,000

hectares) of paddy fields, accounting for about 10-15% of the total rice fields in the country, are

damaged by the recent floods. It therefore stated that there is a need to safeguard rice stocks for

domestic consumption. It added that Myanmar needs around 34.8 million tons of paddy rice for

domestic consumption yearly.

According to the Commerce Ministry, around 80,000 - 120,000 hectares of land has been rendered

useless and require immediate attention and timely plantations.

The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) announced last week that rice exports would be suspended

until September 15, 2015, when harvested rice from the on-going crop is expected to reach markets,

in order to ensure sufficient stocks and control price hikes in the country. According to local media,

Myanmar may consider rice imports as well in the coming months.

Myanmar is a net exporter of rice and its exports have been increasing consistently for the past few

years. Myanmar exported around 1.8 million tons of rice in 2014. The MRF expects a paddy output

of around 14 million tons (around 8.96 million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been

targeting to export around 2 million tons of rice this year.

USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.8 million tons, milled

basis) and export around 2.2 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (January - December 2015).

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice

Futures Rally as U.S. Grains Attempt to Recover a

Portion of Yesterday's Losses Following Bearish USDA

Report

Aug 13, 2015

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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 19 cent per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at

$11.900 per cwt (about $262 per ton). The other grains rallied as well as the market attempted to

recover at least a portion of what was lost yesterday; Soybeans closed about 1.9% higher at

$9.2700 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.4% higher at $5.0900 per bushel, and corn finished the

day about 2% higher at $3.7525 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday after trading near the flatline as investors digested a slew of

economic data points while oil fell sharply. U.S. stocks traded in a back-and-forth range in the

morning before the Dow Jones industrial average hit a session high at about 80 points higher. The

Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also rose about 0.5% and 0.3% in afternoon trade, respectively. On

Wednesday, U.S. equities whipsawed, dropping more than 1% at their lows before closing mostly

higher. Stocks were largely weighed down by the People's Bank of China's decision to further

weaken the yuan against the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, U.S. crude hit a nearly five-month low

of $42.07 per barrel, which led the energy sector to trade 0.6% lower. WTI futures were last down at

$42.17 a barrel. On the economic news front, U.S. retail sales for July rose 0.6%, slightly above

estimates, the Commerce Department said, boosted by auto sales. June's retail sales were also

revised up to show them unchanged instead of the previously reported 0.3% drop, Reuters said.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 274,000, slightly above a consensus estimate of 270,000, while

import prices fell 0.9% amid lower oil costs and a strong dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average

traded 68 point higher, or 0.4%, at 17,471. The S&P 500 traded up 5 points, or 0.28% at 2,092 with

consumer discretionary leading eight sectors higher and energy leading two sectors lower. The

Nasdaq traded up 22 points or 0.44%, with biotechnology stocks trading 0.49 percent higher. Gold is

trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen

trading about 0.2% higher about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Wednesday, there were 1,235 contracts traded, down from 6,239 contracts traded on Tuesday.

Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 47 contracts to

10,141.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Aug 13, 2015

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In China, scattered showers are expected across Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Taiwan, Hunan,

Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan and Sichuan on Thursday and Friday. Isolated

showers are expected across Heilongjiang and Jilin on Thursday and Friday.

In India, scattered showers are expected in eastern Rajasthan, Odisha, northeast Andhra Pradesh,

Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Kerala through Friday.

Weather is expected to remain dry elsewhere across India through Friday.

In Indonesia, showers ae expected across northern Sumatra and into northern and central Borneo

on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, isolated showers are expected from southern Sumatra into

southern Borneo and Sulawesi during today and tomorrow.

Spotty showers are expected across Bangladesh through Friday.

Scattered showers are expected across northern Vietnam on Thursday and Friday. The rest of

Vietnam will only see spotty showers on Thursday and Friday.

Scattered showers are expected across northern Thailand on Thursday and Friday.

Light rain is expected in some places in Pakistan through Sunday.

In the U.S., weather is expected to remain dry across the Plains and Midwest on Thursday.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Continue to

Firm as Price Ideas Increase with the Futures Market

Aug 13, 2015

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The U.S. cash market was firmer again today shrugging off a mostly bearish WASDE report

yesterday as seller prices idea continue to increase with the futures market.

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Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the for the 2015/2016 marketing year,

which began on August 1st, totaled 51,200 tons.

Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 30,000 tons to Venezuela, 5,000

tons Panama, 3,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, 3,100 tons to Guatemala including 1,900 tons switched

from unknown destination, and 2,700 tons to Mexico which were partially offset by decreased for

unknown destinations.

A total of 389,700 tons in sales were outstanding on July 31st and carried over to 2016/2016.

Accumulated export in 2014/2015 totaled 3,267,000 tons, which was an increase of 7% from the

previous year’s total of 3,040,700 tons.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 56,100 tons with the primary destinations including: 26,700 tons to

Mexico, 20,000 tons to Panama, 8,000 tons to Saudi Arabia, and 800 tons to Canada.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures

Find Little Support Overnight Despite Attempt at

Recovery in Neighbouring Grains

Aug 13, 2015

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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 4.5 cent per cwt (about $1 per

ton) lower at $11.665 per cwt (about $257 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other

grains are seen trading higher overnight; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.8% higher,

wheat is listed about 0.9% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.7% higher.

U.S. stock index futures were mostly lower after a slew of U.S. economic data points were released.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in July, slightly higher than what economists expected, while weekly

jobless claims came in at 274,000. Import prices for the U.S. fell 0.9% last month, marking the

largest fall since January. Stocks were rocked Tuesday and Wednesday after China devalued its

currency, but byWednesday afternoon, huge intraday losses were reversed and the market closed

mixed and flattish on the day. In oil markets, Brent crude traded at just under $50, up about 0.4%,

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while U.S. crude was at around $43 a barrel, down 0.35%. In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600

index opened one percent higher, with investors keeping a keen watch on developments in China as

well as progress on Greece's third bailout program. Gold is currently trading about 0.8% lower, crude

oil is seen trading about 1.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher

at 8:45am Chicago time.

Production Shortfalls, Expensive Imports Raise Rice

Prices in Nepal

Aug 13, 2015

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Production shortfalls and expensive imports have been pushing up domestic rice prices in the

country, according to local sources.

The price of most commonly used rice variety Jira Masino have increased to about Rs.1,450-1,850

(around $559 - $713) per 25 kilogram bag from around Rs.1,350-1,750 (around $520 - $674) per 25

kilogram bag, according to local sources. They say traders of branded rice have also hiked prices in

the recent past.

The president of the Retailers Association of Nepal told local sources that the wholesalers are hiking

prices citing short supply and price hikes in India. Nepal imports major quantity of rice from India. It

mainly imports Jira Masino, Mansuli and basmati varieties. Importers say concerns of lower

production due to El Nino have increased prices in India.

According to the Agriculture Ministry, Nepal's paddy production in 2014-15 (August - July) declined

about 5.71% to around 4.78 million tons from around 5.04 million tons in 2013-14 due to a late

monsoon and untimely rainfall. Nepal imported rice worth Rs.13.74 billion ($132 million) in the first

11 months of the 2014-15, up about 27% from last year.

Traders and millers say several hectares of rice lands have turned barren due to lack of rains as well

as absence of proper irrigation facilities. They are urging the government to provide irrigation

facilities in those areas to help boost rice production. They also noted government should prioritize

production to avoid price hikes in the country.

USDA estimates Nepal’s MY 2014-15 (October 2014 – September 2015) paddy rice production to

decline to about 4.655 million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 5 million

tons (around 3.36 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Nepal to import around

400,000 tons of rice in 2015.

USDA Estimates U.S. 2015-16 All Rice Supplies to

Remain Firm, Despite Lower Production

Aug 13, 2015

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In its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA estimates U.S.

2015-16 all rice supplies at around 12.63 million tons, unchanged from its last month's forecast

despite expected lower production. It expects higher imports and stocks would compensate for lower

production. While U.S. long-grain rice supply is estimated to slightly increase to around 9.08 million

tons, the U.S. short and medium grain rice supply is estimated to slightly decline to around 3.45

million tons, from last month.

USDA estimates U.S. all rice production (milled basis) at around 9.3 million tons, down from last

month's estimate of 9.39 million tons due to a slight reduction in yield. Long-grain rice production is

estimated to decline to around 6.76 million tons, down from last month's estimate of 6.92 million

tons; and short- and medium- grain production is estimated at around 2.54 million tons, up from last

month's estimate of 2.47 million tons. Average yield is estimated to decline to around 8.4 tons per

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hectare from last month's forecast of 8.49 tons per hectare, and down from last year's yield at

around 8.52 tons per hectare.

USDA estimates 2015-16 all rice use at around 10.7 million tons, down from last month's estimates

of around 10.89 million tons due to an estimated decline in domestic & residual use since exports

are estimated to be lower from last month. It estimates domestic & residual use of all rice at around

5.85 million tons from last month's estimates of around 5.90 million tons and the decline is expected

in long-grain domestic use.

The U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 all rice exports at around 4.85 million tons, down from last

month's estimates of around 4.99 million tons, and the decline is expected in milled rice exports. The

decrease is attributed to reduced supplies and strong competition with Southeast Asian exporters. It

estimates 2015-16 all rice imports at around 1.16 million tons, up from last month's forecast of

around 1.13 million tons.

It estimates 2015-16 all rice ending stocks at around 1.92 million tons from last month's forecast of

1.74 million tons due to an estimated increase in both long-grain and short-grain rice stocks.

USDA estimates an increase in the average farm price of all rice and long-grain rice.