1354903402701nato current crisis in syria

8/18/2019 1354903402701NATO Current Crisis in Syria

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C u r r e n t C r i s i s i n S y r i a

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P R A G U E S T U D E N T S U M M I T / X V I I I / M O D E L N A T O / I V .

NATO

Current Crisis in Syria


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repression i$posed by the Assad regi$e on the opposition. >pposition activities have been$ade i$possible and faced harsh responses by the regi$e since then (until 2011).

"." #as)ar a*+Assa

he current president of Syria! ,ashar alAssad too& over the office fro$ his father in

2001. As an ophthal$ologist and ith an older brother ho as to beco$e the presidentialsuccessor! he had no political a$bitions until his brother died in a car accident in 1. Afterthe dead of his father -afe/ in 2000! ,ashar beca$e an unopposed candidate of the ,aathparty for the ne Syrian president and has ruled Syria ever since.K

,ashar introduced certain $easures that launched the econo$ic liberali/ation andli$ited political refor$s. he $ost notable event as the release of hundreds of politicalprisoners. @evertheless! the regi$e continued to suppress the political opposition throughoutthe decade.

As the regi$e opposed the S %raLi invasion in 200+ and aligned ith %ran! -a$asand -e/bollah! it beca$e isolated on the international scene. -oever! the govern$ent ascareful to $aintain its traditional partnerships for instance ith 3ussia.

"., De'o%ra-)i!s

he Syrian population is si$ilar to other Middle #astern countries. 0 of 22.K$illion inhabitants are ethnic Arabs! folloed by of Nurds and s$all $inorities of Ar$enians! 5ircassians and ur&$ans. he sectarian religious differences see$ to be $orei$portant for the current situation in Syria as these previously deter$ined the politicalorientation of the ruling regi$e. A $a:ority of $ore than 0 are Sunni Musli$s!

further$ore there are Alaites (12)! ;ru/e () and a s$all $inority of %s$ailis hooriginate fro$ the Shia branch of the %sla$ic religion. he 5hristian $inority plays also ani$portant role ith about 10 $e$bers of the total Syrian population. he current regi$eco$es fro$ the Alaite religious group.

,. T)e U-risin% or Reo*ution0

,.1 #e%innin% o& t)e Con&*i!t

Syrians have been facing ith si$ilar repressive conditions as those that led other Arabnations to revolutions and uprisings &non as the Arab Spring in 2011. A lac& of political

freedo$s alongside ith econo$ic difficulties created a strong pressure on the $a:oritypopulation. Oet! first atte$pts to organise protests in 'ebruary 2011 erenEt very successful.-oever! the de$onstrations gradually spread across the country as severe clashes ith thesecurity forces increased the public anger ith AssadEs regi$e.

4 >3A! ?iad. he Syrian Musli$ ,rotherhood and the Asad 3egi$e 6online7. Daltha$! Massachusetts! 20106cit. 201208087. Available at http99.brandeis.edu9cron9publications9$eb9M#,.pdf . 5ron 5enterfor Middle #ast Studies! ,randeis niversity.

5 ,,5. rofile SyriaPs ,ashar alAssad. 6online7. 2011 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.bbc.co.u&9nes910++82K*

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http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB47.pdfhttp://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB47.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10338256http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB47.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10338256


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,ashar alAssad introduced so$e $easures to satisfy the protesters. -e for$allylifted the idelycriticised State of #$ergency in April 2011. he State of #$ergencypreviously suspended $ost constitutional protection of citi/ens and as in place fro$ 1*+!co$$only used to suppress the dissent. @evertheless! the regi$e as criticised forintroducing only for$al gestures to silence the protesters. 'urther$ore! ,ashar called for a

national referendu$! hich as held in 'ebruary 2012! to introduce a ne constitutionthrough hich the space ould be open for the political co$petition outside the ,aath party.%t as approved by a vast $a:ority of participants! hoever! it lac&ed the legiti$acy due tothe lo turnout and ongoing deadly clashes beteen the regi$e forces and de$onstrators.nder the ne constitution! the first parlia$entary election that reintroduced other politicalparties beside the ,aath party too& place in May 2012. According to so$e Syrian officials!K1 of eligible voters too& part in the election! in hich the regi$e supporters on over0 seats in the parlia$ent*. -oever! a $a:ority of the opposition boycotted the election.

ro$ises of li$ited political refor$s did not satisfy the protesters! as $ost of the$

sa the only solution to the current crisis in an i$$ediate end of the AssadEs regi$e.

,." A!tors in t)e Con&*i!t

,.,.1 T)e Re%i'e

he Assad regi$eEs forces are esti$ated to nu$ber beteen 100.000 and 200.000.hey dispose of heavy $ilitary eapons including tan&s! fight helicopters! ar$ouredpersonnel carriers and artillery. ;ue to this professional $ilitary technology! the regi$eforces have an advantage in the direct $ilitary confrontations ith the de$onstrators.

A vast $a:ority of the Alaite co$$unity is loyal to the regi$e for several reasons. A$a:ority of Alaites have at least one $e$ber of their fa$ilies in the regi$eEs securityforces. -ighran&ing $ilitary posts are held by Alaites! therefore they strongly identifythe$selves ith the regi$e and they also fear revenge by the Sunni $a:ority in a case ofregi$eEs fall. he govern$ent security units are also careful to not da$age any Alaitedistricts. ;e$ographically! ealthier urban areas tend to support Assad $ore than thecountryside.8

Dhen tal&ing about the regi$e forces! the Shabiha units played a significant role inthe clashes. Shabiha (


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ho $uch they cooperate ith the regi$e forces! but given the fact they ere spottedfighting alongside ith the ar$y! it is assu$ed they do the ctober 2011 by a range of $ostly e"ileactivists. %t includes $any $e$bers of the Musli$ ,rotherhood $ove$ent and it isdo$inated by the Sunni co$$unity. he S@5 serves as a contact point for theinternational co$$unity! but it struggles ith the internal disunity and a lac& ofefficiency. %t advocates for an international $ilitary intervention! hich leads so$eSyrians in the country to suspect the S@5 as a tool of the foreign regional poers 11.>n the other hand! so$e protest groups have put aside their differences and respectthe S@5.

Nationa* Coorination #oy &or De'o!rati! C)an%e NC#2

he @5, is so$eti$es referred to as he @ational 5oordination 5o$$ittee for;e$ocratic 5hange (@55). %t is based on an opposition bloc inside Syria and includes$any longter$ dissidents! ho are allegedly afraid of %sla$ists ithin the S@5 12.nli&e S@5! the @5, is illing to negotiate ith AssadEs regi$e! opposes foreign$ilitary intervention and co$$unicates ith 3ussia.1+

9 M>SSA>%! 3ana. A'. Shabiha $ilitia$en! tools of the Syria regi$e 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.google.co$9hostednes9afp9article9A?eLMKge"5@'//>*li0>%D2fhy&J;4Q

doc%[email protected]+K2ed1f+daeb0aaadc8a1bd.+1

10 ,,5. Syria unrest Dho are the shabihaQ 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast182*8

11 S-A3! Jere$y a 5hristopher ,?A@5-A3;. Ar$ed 5onflict in Syria .S. and %nternational 3esponse 6online7.5ongressional 3esearch Service! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.fas.org9sgp9crs9$ideast93?++8.pdf

12 ,,5. Guide to the Syrian opposition 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast1K8218

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S-A3! Jere$y a 5hristopher ,?A@5-A3;. Ar$ed 5onflict in Syria .S. and %nternational 3esponse 6online7.5ongressional 3esearch Service! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.fas.org9sgp9crs9$ideast93?++8.pdf

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gUexCNFzzO6liU0OIW2f-h-ykJDQ?docId=CNG.b8fb53592ed1f394daeb0aaadc8a1bd9.31http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gUexCNFzzO6liU0OIW2f-h-ykJDQ?docId=CNG.b8fb53592ed1f394daeb0aaadc8a1bd9.31http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14482968http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15798218http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gUexCNFzzO6liU0OIW2f-h-ykJDQ?docId=CNG.b8fb53592ed1f394daeb0aaadc8a1bd9.31http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gUexCNFzzO6liU0OIW2f-h-ykJDQ?docId=CNG.b8fb53592ed1f394daeb0aaadc8a1bd9.31http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14482968http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15798218http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf


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3ree Syrian Ar'y 3SA2

housands of Sunni soldiers have deserted the ar$y since the uprising began (up to*0.000 by March 2012! according to the ur&ish govern$ent data 1). hese soldiersare $ostly lightar$ed and trained on ele$entary level! as the core of the regi$eEshighran&ing and elltrained $ilitary officials are fro$ the Alaite religious group.So$e of those deserters create the core of the 'SA! hich resorted to ar$s in itsfight against the current regi$e. Although its leader 3iyad alAsaad (not related tothe president) clai$s heEs got around 0.000 $en directly under his co$$and! it isli&ely that the nu$ber is not even a half of this figure (valid esti$ates are notavailable)1K 1*. he 'SA and the S@5 cooperate together on so$e issues. %n addition!there are also thousands of ar$ed opposition fighters not directly associated ith the'SA.

#fficiency of the ar$ed opposition increases in ti$e partly than&s to the foreignsupport. So$e of the ar$ed protesters allegedly receive salaries! part of hich co$es li&ely

fro$ abroad (especially fro$ 4atar and Saudi Arabi)1.his as strongly criticised by theregi$e as a foreign interference.

,.,., Ot)er Minority Et)ni! Grou-s

5hristians and Nurds re$ain $ostly aside fro$ the current uprising. 18 hey fear thatthe violent conflict could end up in a fullfledged civil ar in a case of AssadEs regi$e fall.his fears ste$ li&ely fro$ the allegedly sectarian character of the current confrontations! aspro$oted by so$e $edia and the regi$e! even though the opposition forces clai$ that theysee& to create a tolerant society. %n particular! 5hristians are believed to fear sectarianis$

that $ay result in repressions against the $inority groups. >n the other hand! they refuse tobe associated ith the regi$eEs crac&don.

14 #N#3! #$re a ;onna A,@AS3. ,?>>M,#3G. Syrian Ar$ed 'orces ;esertion Said o Surge o *0!000 6online7. 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.bloo$berg.co$9nes920120+1K9syrialoses20000

troopsasdesertersfleetur&eysays1.ht$l

15 A? JAF##3A. 3an&s of 'ree Syrian Ar$y Pgaining strengthP 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.al:a/eera.co$9nes9$iddleeast9201191292011122*112*088.ht$l

16 ,,5. Guide to the Syrian opposition 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast1K8218


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S-A3! Jere$y a 5hristopher ,?A@5-A3;. Ar$ed 5onflict in Syria .S. and %nternational 3esponse 6online7.5ongressional 3esearch Service! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.fas.org9sgp9crs9$ideast93?++8.pdf

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111226171260898.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15798218http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111226171260898.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15798218http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf


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,., T)e Current Situation

According to observers! the total death count (around 18 000 by July 2012) containappro"i$ately 12.000 civilian deaths. he hu$anitarian di$ension underlines $ore than0.000 refugees fro$ Syria registered ithin the @-53 (and other tens of thousands

unregistered ones).

Source 5ongressional 3esearch Service! S-A3! Jere$y a 5hristopher ,?A@5-A3;. Ar$ed 5onflict inSyria .S. and %nternational 3esponse 6online7. 5ongressional 3esearch Service! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.fas.org9sgp9crs9$ideast93?++8.pdf

@ot only the regi$e is to bla$e. A lot of the violence! especially at the beginning ofthe uprising! $ay have been caused by a lac& of &noledge of the security forces ho tohandle the situation! not necessarily by the regi$e authorities1. A lot of reports on theviolance are based on unverified sources! because the regi$e denies foreign :ournalists and$ost of the @G>s access. Dhat is $ore! in so$e cases! the regi$e forces have been in therole of victi$s of an inadeLuate violence.20 So$e of the protest $ove$ent is violent! often%sla$ist groups! s$ugglers and cri$inals! so$eti$es :ust spontaneous co$$on Sunnipeople.21

19 @A? 53%S%S G3>. >?A3 3>#S %@ @>3- A'3%5A A@; -#M%;;?# #AS (H%%) -# SO3%A@ 3#G%M#ES S?>DM>%>@ S%5%;# 6online7. 2011 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.crisisgroup.org9T9$edia9'iles9Middle20#ast20@orth20Africa9%raL20Syria20?ebanon9Syria91020opular20rotest20in20@orth20Africa20and20the20Middle20#ast20H%%2020he20Syrian203egi$es20Slo$otion20Suicide.pdf

20 ,,5. i$eline Ney $o$ents in Syrian crisis 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast18811K0

21 %5N#3%@G! ho$as. %@#3@A%>@A? 53%S%S G3>. >?A3 3>#S %@ @>3- A'3%5A A@; -#M%;;?# #AS (H%%) -# SO3%A@ 3#G%M#ES S?>DM>%>@ S%5%;# 6online7. 2011 6cit. 201208087.

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http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18891150http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18891150http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf


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%nvolve$ent of so$e radical %sla$ic groups in the Syrian conflict is beco$ing aserious issue! ith $ore than 0 reported cases of car bo$bings 22 and suicidal attac&s sincethe beginning of the uprising. he Al 4aeda organisation clai$ed responsibility for so$e ofthe attac&s as ell as other s$aller %sla$ist groups did (e.g. Sunni Jihadist group ctober + he opposition bloc Syrian Nationa* Coun!i* is

&or'e .

'ebruary 2* T)e !onstitution re&erenu' 5as )e* 5it) voters

approving the open political co$petition.

'ebruary March 2012! -o$s Syrian &or!es !ra!$e o5n on t)e !ity o& (o's

ith heavy bo$bard$ent and the deathtoll esti$ated at00 people &illed.

March 1* he Nofi Annan Pea!e P*an for Syria as sub$itted to

the @.

Available at http99.crisisgroup.org9T9$edia9'iles9Middle20#ast20@orth20Africa9%raL20Syria20?ebanon9Syria91020opular20rotest20in20@orth20Africa20and20the20Middle20#ast20H%%2020he20Syrian203egi$es20Slo$otion20Suicide.pdf

22 AS-#3! ,er$an. %SD. %M#?%@# >A? 5A3 ,>M,%@GS %@ SO3%A 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208127. Availableat http99.understandingar.org9press$edia9graphsandstat9ti$elinetotalcarbo$bingssyria

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http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/timeline-total-car-bombings-syriahttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdfhttp://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/graphsandstat/timeline-total-car-bombings-syria


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May ! 2012 Syrian -ar*ia'entary e*e!tion 5ere )e* an

boycotted by the opposition. he ,aath party ins a

vast $a:ority.

June 2+! 2012 he Syrian ar'y s)ot o5n a Tur$is) &i%)ter 7et .

he plane $ista&enly entered the Syrian airspace.ur&ey disagreed ith Syria over here the :et as shotdon. An&ara clai$ed it as a fe $inutes after theplane had returned to the area above the internationalaters only close to the Syrian coast! but not above theSyrian territory2+. As a @A> $e$ber! ur&ey couldapply the Article K of the @A> treaty! if attac&ed bySyria.

July 18! 2012 ;a$ascus Syrian e&en!e 'inister ;aoud 3a:iha and his deputy

(,ashar alAssadEs brotherinla) ere $i**e 6y asui!ia* atta!$ . %t shoed that the opposition as ableto get closer to the regi$e officials.

4. T)e Internationa* Di'ension

4.1 Internationa* Rea!tion

Syria is an i$portant player in the Middle #ast region for the international co$$unity!hich fears that the ongoing fighting in Syria $ay bring instability to the hole region.

4.1.1 Ara6 Lea%ue

he Arab ?eague2 2K hesitated to act in the $atter of the Syrian uprising until@ove$ber 2011! hen it proposed a plan to end the violence in Syria. he plan asaccepted by the Syrian govern$ent that violated it only a fe days later. he Arab ?eaguesuspended $e$bership of Syria in the Arab ?eague after that and i$posed heavy econo$icsanctions against the ,ashar alAssadPs regi$e. -oever! the govern$ent alloed Arabobservers into the country in ;ece$ber 2011. %n January 2012! the Arab ?eague dre up aproposal of a political refor$! under hich ,ashar ould delegate poer to his deputy andnegotiate ith the opposition. %t as re:ected by the Syrian govern$ent. he ?eague sought

support for the plan at the @S5! but it as vetoed by 5hina and 3ussia as both Moscoand ,ei:ing have been opposing any $ilitary intervention in Syria at the Security 5ouncil$ost li&ely due to strategic interests to preserve the current Syrian regi$e. After the ?ibyanoperation! 5hina and 3ussia vie another possible estern countries led $ilitary intervention23 ,,5. Syriaur&ey tension Assad PregretsP ' :etPs doning 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available at

http99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast18*8K2K0

24 he Arab ?eague is one of the $ost influential regional political organisations co$posed of 22 Arab states in@orthern Africa and Middle #ast. 'ounded in 1K the organisation strives to deepen cooperation in the fieldsof econo$y! culture! politics and! $ost i$portantly! in coordination of $ilitary defence. he alestinian Authority is one of the full $e$bers of the ?eague.

25 ,,5. rofile Arab ?eague 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99nes.bbc.co.u&929hi9$iddleCeast9countryCprofiles91KK0.st$

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18685250http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/country_profiles/1550797.stmhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18685250http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/country_profiles/1550797.stm


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in the Middle #ast as a dangerous precedent for the future :ustification of operations ithintheir spheres of influence. Moreover! Syria is an i$portant partner for 3ussia in the Middle#ast and the end of ,asharEs regi$e ould $ean another loss of influence and diplo$aticprestige for Mosco in the region.

4.1." 8o&i Annan9s P*an

he $ost notable international atte$pt to bring peace to Syria as Nofi AnnanEs lan.Nofi Annan! as a special envoy of the @ and Arab ?eague! proposed to ,ashar alAssad aplan for a ceasefire that should have been respected by all sides at once in March 2012. Although ,ashar had accepted it! he never fulfilled it practically! as he de$anded rittenguarantees fro$ the opposition protesters. he 'SA refused to give any guarantee to thegovern$ent at all. Nofi Annan resigned as the envoy for Syria in August 2012 because of thelac& of unity in the @S5 and reluctance of the to sides to the conflict to end the violence2*.

4." San!tions an Syrian E!ono'ySyria produces around 0.K of total oil production in the orld (in co$parison to

?ibya and %raL that produce appro"i$ately 2 to + each)2 28. -oever! because of thesanctions i$posed on Syria since the beginning of the protests in 2011! especially by the #and the S! the oil e"port fell fro$ around 00.000 bpd in 2010 to +20.000 bpd in 20112.he drop in oil e"port decreased Syrian govern$entEs revenues by 2K+0! hich createslosses to the national budget already heavily loaded ith ne $ilitary spendings due to theuprising.

Moreover! the Syrian econo$y has been da$aged by the conflict in connection in

particular ith the losses in revenues fro$ touris$. %t is esti$ated that Syrian G; fell by10 in 2011.+0 he high inflation is not only a proble$ for Syrian citi/ens! but also for theSyrian 5entral ,an&. he reserves held by the Syrian 5entral ,an& shrun& fro$ about U20billion before the uprising to the esti$ated UK billion ith $onthly losses of around U1billion+1. he Luestion is ho long the govern$ent can continue $eeting its budget

26 A@@A@! Nofi. ress conference by Nofi Annan! Joint Special #nvoy for Syria. 6ress conference7. Geneva! 2 August 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.unog.ch9unog9ebsite9nesC$edia.nsf928http@es,yOearCen298+K8*15'2#+'512KA#00K8##Q

>pen;ocu$entBcnt"tR'A0'#Bcoo&ielangRen 27 5%A. he Dorld 'actboo& 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. %SS@ 1KK+81++. Available at

https99.cia.gov9library9publications9theorldfactboo&9ran&order921+ran&.ht$l

28 %@#3@A%>@A? #@#3GO AG#@5O. >il Mar&et 3eport 6online7. 2011 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99o$rpublic.iea.org9o$rarchive912$ay11sup.pdf


30

A?AM%! Mona. %S. 5rac&s Diden in Syrian #cono$y. 6online7. ,eirut! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99nes.indialocals.co$9read92012901929,J3AuFJH0N$t2F@lF:RR9fullstorycrac&sideninsyrianecono$y

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reLuire$ents. ;aily fuel shortages and poer cuts are other factors da$aging the AssadEsregi$e position in the conflict.

4., Pro6*e's o& Possi6*e Mi*itary Interention

A foreign $ilitary intervention to Syria $ay help to end the violence! but it couldbring several proble$s as ell.

Dith the e"perience fro$ other countries in the region and the sectarian character ofthe conflict! it is difficult to define a possible ti$efra$e for such an operation. %t is possiblethe $ilitary intervention to Syria could turn into another longter$ $ission such as the onein %raL ith e"tre$ely high costs. 'urther$ore! as already $entioned! such an intervention$ay incense 3ussia! 5hina! %ran and possibly other countries. So$e relations ithin theinternational co$$unity are already fragile and possible foreign operation in Syria $ayfurther brea& the unstable status Luo! in particular ith respect to previous strongly criticisedinterventions in Afghanistan and ?ibya.

%n addition! political goals of the disunited opposition are very uncertain. %t is difficultto predict further develop$ents in the country! ensuing a possible fall of the Assad regi$e.there is a great ris& of e"tre$ists raise. #"isting stoc&piles of che$ical eapons in Syria $ayalso contribute to unpredictability of the situation in Syria.

4.4 Se!urity T)reats o& t)e Syrian Con&*i!t

4.4.1 :ea-ons o& Mass Destru!tion :MD2

Syria has not not agreed to the international 5he$ical Deapons 5onvention and theregi$e refused to reveal its possession of che$ical eapons (5D) until July 2012 ith anassurance that the DM; ill never be used against the Syrian citi/ens. he regi$e addedthat the eapons can be deployed in case of a foreign intervention. +2 Syria is believed tohave large stoc&piles of biological eapons too.++

So far! the regi$e has deployed tens of thousands of troops guarding the che$icaland biological eapons.+ -oever! it $ay beco$e difficult to assure that the DM; ill notfall into the rong hands shall the Assad regi$e collapse. Syria does not posses nucleareapons.

31

DA-%@G>@ >S. Syria running out of cash as sanctions ta&e toll! but Assad avoids econo$ic pain 6online7.6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.ashingtonpost.co$9orld9nationalsecurity9syriarunningoutofcashassanctionsta&etollbutassadavoidsecono$icpain9201290929g%4A>2n:fCstoryC1.ht$l

32 MA5'A34-A3! @eil! #ric S5-M%! ;alal MADA; a -aida SAA;. -# @#D O>3N %M#S. Syria hreatens5he$ical Attac& on 'oreign 'orce 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.nyti$es.co$9201290929orld9$iddleeast9che$icaleaponsontbeusedinrebellionsyriasays.ht$lQpageantedR2BCrR1

33 ;#NN#3! Jill a Jerry G>3;>@. SyriaPs ,ioDarfare hreat an intervie ith ;r. Jill ;e&&er 6online7. 200 6cit.201208087. Available at http99.neenglishrevie.org9custpage.cf$9fr$91+1089secCid91+108

34

SA33! ,arbara. Military housands of troops needed to secure Syrian che$ical sites 6online7. 2012 6cit.201208087. Available at http99security.blogs.cnn.co$920129029229$ilitarythousandsoftroopsneededtosecuresyrianche$icalsites9

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4.4." E;tre'is'

he violence and chaos create an environ$ent that $ay breed different for$s ofe"tre$is$. Sunni radical groups (so$eti$es connected to Al 4aeda) are believed to haveinfiltrated the opposition. 5urrenlty! there is a lac& of alternatives to the Assad regi$e in

Syria due to the oppositionEs disunity and so$e radical forces $ay ta&e an advantage of apoer vacuu$.

has to find right ansers in order to stop the violenceand establish security in the Middle #ast.

Ti-s &or 3urt)er Stuy

,,5 @es Syria conflict (http99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast12K8+)

Ar$ed 5onflict in Syria .S. and %nternational 3esponse! 5ongressional 3esearch Service(http99.fas.org9sgp9crs9$ideast93?++8.pdf )

,ac&ground note Syria! ,ureau of @ear #astern Affairs! .S. depart$ent of state(http99.state.gov9r9pa9ei9bgn9+K80.ht$)

Syria live blog! Al Ja/eera (http99blogs.al:a/eera.co$9liveblog9topic9syria1K+)

Syria! 3##3S (http99.reuters.co$9places9syria)

@es about Syria! 5@@ (http99topics.cnn.co$9topics9syria)

Sour!es

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6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.onisla$.net9english9politics9asia9K*+1*syrianscrushedinaco$ple"internationalga$e.ht$l

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SA33! ,arbara. Military housands of troops needed to secure Syrian che$ical sites

6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99security.blogs.cnn.co$920129029229$ilitarythousandsoftroopsneededtosecuresyrianche$icalsites9

-# @#D O>3N %M#S. Arab ?eague 6online7. 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99topics.nyti$es.co$9topics9reference9ti$estopics9organi/ations9a9arabCleague9inde".ht$l

34-A3! 5onal. Aleppo co$es under air and ground assaults fro$ Assad forces 6online7.6cit. 2012027. Available at http99.guardian.co.u&9orld920129:ul9289aleppoairgroundassaultsassad

DAS-%@G>@ >S. Syria running out of cash as sanctions ta&e toll! but Assad avoidsecono$ic pain 6online7. 6cit. 201208087. Available athttp99.ashingtonpost.co$9orld9nationalsecurity9syriarunningoutofcashassanctionsta&etollbutassadavoidsecono$icpain9201290929g%4A>2n:fCstoryC1.ht$l

D%?N%@S>@! eter a @ic& ->MS>@. 5@@. Syria 'ro$ uprising to civil ar 6online7. 20126cit. 201208087. Available at http99edition.cnn.co$9201290+919orld9$east9syriati$eline9inde".ht$l

D>>;! aul. ,,5 @#DS. -o$s attac& ,,5 reporter ta&es in differing accounts 6online7.-o$s! 2012 6cit. 201208087. Available at http99.bbc.co.u&9nes9orld$iddleeast1*888

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http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/22/military-thousands-of-troops-needed-to-secure-syrian-chemical-sites/http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/22/military-thousands-of-troops-needed-to-secure-syrian-chemical-sites/http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/arab_league/index.htmlhttp://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/arab_league/index.htmlhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/28/aleppo-air-ground-assaults-assadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/28/aleppo-air-ground-assaults-assadhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syria-running-out-of-cash-as-sanctions-take-toll-but-assad-avoids-economic-pain/2012/04/24/gIQAO2njfT_story_1.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syria-running-out-of-cash-as-sanctions-take-toll-but-assad-avoids-economic-pain/2012/04/24/gIQAO2njfT_story_1.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/14/world/meast/syria-timeline/index.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/14/world/meast/syria-timeline/index.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16888777http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16888777http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdfhttp://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/22/military-thousands-of-troops-needed-to-secure-syrian-chemical-sites/http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/22/military-thousands-of-troops-needed-to-secure-syrian-chemical-sites/http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/arab_league/index.htmlhttp://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/arab_league/index.htmlhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/28/aleppo-air-ground-assaults-assadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/28/aleppo-air-ground-assaults-assadhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syria-running-out-of-cash-as-sanctions-take-toll-but-assad-avoids-economic-pain/2012/04/24/gIQAO2njfT_story_1.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syria-running-out-of-cash-as-sanctions-take-toll-but-assad-avoids-economic-pain/2012/04/24/gIQAO2njfT_story_1.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/14/world/meast/syria-timeline/index.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/14/world/meast/syria-timeline/index.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16888777http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16888777


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