12-vanston forecasts of online video and gigabit access 2015 · 1/10/2015 · title: microsoft...
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Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 1
Forecasts of Online Video and Gigabit Access
Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D.President,Technology Futures, Inc.
TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 2
Asset Valuation Conference
January 28-29, 2015
Radisson DowntownAustin, Texas
13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C-1 • Austin, Texas 78750 (512) 258-8898 • www.tfi.com
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
I d t B db d F tIndustry Broadband Forecasts
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Broadband Generations, Data Rate Categories*
Nominal Range
1 5 Mb/ L h 3 Mb/1.5 Mb/s Less than 3 Mb/s
6 Mb/s At least 3 Mb/s and less than 10 Mb/s
24 Mb/s At least 10 Mb/s and less than 25 Mb/s
50 Mb/s At least 25 Mb/s and less than 100 Mb/s
100 Mb/s At least 100 Mb/s and less than 300 Mb/s
VHSBroadband
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 4
100 Mb/s At least 100 Mb/s and less than 300 Mb/s
300 Mb/s At least 300 Mb/s (Includes 1 Gb/s)
*These are based on downstream, but upstream is becoming important also.
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate
80%
90%
100%
ds
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%P
erce
nta
ge
of
Ho
use
ho
ld
1.5Mb/s
6 Mb/s24
Mb/s
50 Mb/s
All BroadbandHouseholds
Broadband A
ccess
100 Mb/s& Above
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0%
10%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
P
Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
2014
Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband
Addi A th G tiAdding Another Generation
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Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Trend in Residential Access Data Rates
50,000 100,000
300,000
1,000,000
100,000
1,000,000
s)
1.22.4
9.614.4
28.856.0
1,500
6,000
24,000
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
No
min
al D
ata
Ra
te (
Mb
/s
AnalogModems
Broadband
Performance Increases4 times every 4 years
(42% annually)
20B
roadband Access
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0.3
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
014
Constant Percentage Rate of Advance
• Most new technologies progress this way
• Rates will continue if:– The improvement is technically possible– Basic approach remains the same– Demand, utility, need continue
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 8
From TFI’s Technology Forecasting Seminar
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate
80%
90%
100%
lds
50 Mbs& Above
100 Mbs& Above
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Ho
use
ho
6 Mb/s& Above
24 Mb/s
1.5 Mb/s& Above
Broadband A
ccess
300 Mbs& Above
`
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0%
10%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2014 & Above
Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband
U.S. Broadband Lifecycles (Residential Subscribers)
80%
90%
100%
s
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f H
ou
seh
old
s
1.5Mb/s
6 Mb/s24
Mb/s
50 Mb/s
All BroadbandHouseholds
Broadband A
ccess
100Mb/s
300 Mb/s& Above
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 10
Lifecycle (t) = Substitution (t) – Next Substitution (t)
0%
10%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
P
Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
2014
Data Source: FCC. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Resulting Average Data Rate
10 000
100.000
Mb
/s) Growth Rate = 33%
0.100
1.000
10.000
Ave
rag
e D
ata
Ra
te (
M
TrendLine
WeightedAverage
20B
roadband Access
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 11
0.0101995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
014
C t Th ti fl t hi t iCaveat: The generations reflect historic trends in nominal bandwidth demand. Market forces may accelerate these without a corresponding acceleration in actual bandwidth requirements.
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Example: 300 Mb/s & Above may include a lot of “pre-mature” Gigabit!
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Availability vs Subscribers, 300 Mb/s & Above - Updated
90%
100%
Required
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f H
ou
seh
old
s RequiredAvailability(300 Mb/s& Above)
BroadbandSubscribers
(300 Mb/s & Above)
Broadband A
ccess
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 13
0%
10%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
P
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2014
O li Vid F tOnline Video Forecasts
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Internet Video – Peak Period Traffic –North America, Fixed Access
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Netflix Streaming Members, Domestic
80%
90%
100%
old
s
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f H
ou
seh
o
On
line V
ide
o
Netflix Streaming Members
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 16
0%
10%
2010 2015 2020 2025
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2015
Historical data source: Netflix
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Online Video Users
80%
90%
100%
s
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pe
rcen
tag
e o
f T
V V
iew
ers
On
line V
ideo
Netflix Streaming Members (Pct of HHs)
All Online Video Users
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 17
0%
10%
2010 2015 2020 2025
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2015
Historical data source for Netflix: Netflix
Households with Internet Connected TVs
90%
100%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
erc
enta
ge
of
Ho
use
ho
lds
On
line V
idHouseholds with Internet Connected TV
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0%
10%
20%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Pe
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
deo
2015
Internet Connected TV
Historical data source: Leichtman Research Group
Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Online Video Minutes, Percent of Total TV Viewing (Scale to 10%)
9%
10%
Reporting change:Additional video
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f T
V M
inu
tes
Intern
et Vid
eo2 0
Online Video Minutes (among online video users)
Additional videoapplications
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0%
1%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
015
( g )
Historical Data Source: Nielsen
Online Video Minutes, Percent of Total TV Viewing (Full Scale)
90%
100%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Pe
rcen
tag
e o
f T
V M
inu
tes
Inte
rne
t Vid
eo
Online Video Minutes (among online video users)
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 20
0%
10%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
o2
015
Historical Data Source: Nielsen
(among online video users)
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HDTV Households
80%
90%
100%
old
s
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Ho
us
eh
o
HD
TV
HDTVHouseholds
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0%
10%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2015
Households
Historical data sources:2001-2004 Misc, 2005-2009 Leichtman Research
Ultra-HD Households (aka 4K)
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Copyright © 2015 Technology Futures, Inc.
Ultra-HD Households (aka 4K)
80%
90%
100%
ds
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Per
cen
tag
e o
f H
ou
seh
ol
HD
TV
2
HDTVHouseholds
Ultra-HDTVHouseholds
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 23
0%
10%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
YearSource: Technology Futures, Inc.
2015
HDTV Historical data sources:2001-2004 Misc, 2005-2013 Leichtman Research
Source: Strategy Analytics
Copyright © 2015, Technology Futures, Inc. 24Your Bridge to the Future
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