12 may 2015 les politiques de recherche et d’innovation dans les pays de l’ocde -...
TRANSCRIPT
Les politiques de recherche et d’innovation dans les
pays de l’OCDELes Perspectives de STI de l’OCDE 2014
Sandrine KERGROACHDirection de l’OCDE de la Science, Technologie et Innovation
JOURNEES ANPR - Le paysage de la Recherche et de l’Innovation en Tunisie : Etat des lieux et Perspectives,
Hammamet, 12 Mai 2015
Outline
• OECD STI Outlook: a guide through complexity.
• Global trends in STI
– A modest recovery
– Shifts in global STI landscape
– Persistent ‘Grand’ challenges
• Adjustments in STI policies
– A “new deal” for innovation
– Public support to firms
– Public research policy
• For further information: OECD infrastructure for innovation policy analysis and a few words on international cooperation for building capacity: EC and World Bank.
2
OECD STI Outlook: 20-year tradition
• “What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “
• International review of key recent trends in STI for the STI policy community and analysts
• Based on latest STI policy information and indicators
• OECD Flagship publication
3
Drawing on a unique policy questionnaire
4
Country coverage of the STI Outlook
from 2008 to 2014
Response rate 2014: 93%
2012: + Colombia, Egypt2014 : + Costa Rica, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Peru
European Commission joint survey in 2016
53 countries
The three components of the STI Outlook 2014
5
COUNTRY PROFILES
POLICY PROFILES
OVERALL STI PERFORMANCE AND POLICY TRENDS
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
6
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistent ‘grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Adjustments in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
The recovery remains modest and contrasted
7
GDP growthAnnual growth rate, 2003-13 and projections for 2014 and 2015
Source: OECD Economic Outlook n.95 Database, May 2014.
The BRICS has lost earlier momentum
8
GDP growthAnnual growth rate, 2003-13 and projections for 2014 and 2015
Source: OECD Economic Outlook n.95 Database, May 2014.
Innovation in the crisis
9
Annual growth rate of GDP and GERD, OECD, 1993-2013 and projections to 2015
Source: OECD Economic Outlook no95 Database, May 2014; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) database, June 2014.
The buffer effect of public R&D expenditure has faded
10
Annual growth rate of GDP and GERD, OECD, 1993-2013 and projections to 2015
Source: OECD Economic Outlook no95 Database, May 2014; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators MSTI database, June 2014.
Knowledge-intensive investments have been relatively preserved
11
Source: OECD MSTI, June 2014, OECD National Accounts Database, April 2014.
recovered earlier than in physical assets
Reluctance of firms to engage profits and build new production capacity
Corporate gross fixed capitalformation
Central role of knowledge-based assets in market competition
Budgets are levelling off or receding…
13
Public R&D budgets (GBAORD), as % of GDP, 2013 compared to 2011
Source: OECD estimates based on OECD MSTI database, June 2014.
The shock of the crisis is not fully absorbed
14
• A strong resurgence in R&D and innovation in the next years is unlikely
• Governments’ financial capacity to intervene in the field of STI is limited due to budgetary pressure
• Future growth in innovation activities is likely to be primarily driven by business investments.
Maintaining jobs and economic growth in open economies requires greater competitiveness (48 million people unemployed in the OECD, the fear of “the middle income trap”)
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
15
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistent ‘grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Adjustments in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
Global value chains (GVCs) : trade …
16Economies participate to GVCs both as users of foreign inputs and as suppliers of intermediate goods and services
GVCs have changed the nature of global competition
• Competitive advantage increasingly driven by innovation….
• … in turn driven by investments in intangibles (KBC beyond R&D)
18
Computerised information
• Software• Databases
Innovative property
• Patents• Copyrights• Trademarks• Design
Economic competencies
• Brand equity• Firm-specific
human capital• Business
networks• Organisational
know-how
Reach segments with higher valued added (and job creation) in GVCs
A changing global R&D landscape
19
GERD, million USD 2005 PPP, 2000-12 and projections to 2024
Source: OECD estimates based on OECD MSTI database, June 2014.
R&D intensity, % GDP (2012)
EU28 = 1.97%China = 1.98%
International collaboration networks in science
20
Internationally co-authored documents, 2011 and 1998 (whole counts)
Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013, Paris.
Global competition for knowledge-based assets is on the rise
21
• Emergence of globally interconnected innovation hubs
• Growing worldwide competition for / availability of talent and knowledge-based assets and the increasing international mobility of such assets.
• GVCs have changed the nature of global competition: companies and countries no longer only compete for market share in high value-added industries, but also increasingly for high value-added activities within GVCs.
Innovation is more than ever important for strategic positioning in global value chains
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
22
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistent ‘grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Adjustments in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
Challenges and opportunities
23
• The transition to a low-carbon economy and the preservation of natural resources would require technological breakthroughs, deployment of existing technologies and new infrastructures, systemic changes (behaviours, governance).
• Ageing would require new technologies/services to assist the elderly remain active and autonomous longer, assist care providers, funding and better coordination between social care and health services.
• Income inequality has increased during the crisis. ICTs offer opportunities to support inclusive innovation. Education and training policies will be essential to avoid exclusion.
Raising the status of innovation in the policy portfolio
Broaden the scope of policy intervention
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
25
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistant ‘Grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Adjustments in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
• Knowledge triangle at the top of policy agenda
• Broaden the scope of policy intervention :
– Multiple goals (industrial transformation, inclusive innovation, grands challenges etc.)
– Going beyond the scope of national innovation policies
• Growing complexity:
– Growing number of STI actors (ministries, agencies, non-state actors) involved in the design and implementation of STI policy
– Multi-level governance
– In search for synergies with the private sector, strategic P/PPs and joint investments.
– Larger portfolio / mix of policy instruments
• Evaluation is key but would require a ‘whole of government’ approach.
26
The future of innovation policies
Building attractive ecosystems
27
Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
National STI policy priorities, country self-assessment, 2012-14
Good framework conditions to encourage the reallocation of resources
28
Product market regulations Bankruptcy law Employment protection legislation
AUSAUT
BEL
CAN
CZEDEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL ITA
JPN
LUX
NLD
POLPRT
SWE
USA
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
PMR
KBC Investment to GDP
y = -0.031x + 0.116
T-statistics: -3.92***
AUSAUT
BEL
CAN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL ITA
JPN
LUX
NLD
POLPRT
SVN
SWE
USA
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
Bankruptcy law
y = -0.002x + 0.086
T-statistics: -3.87***
KBC Investment to GDP
AUS AUT
BEL
CAN
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBR
GRC
HUN
IRL
ITA
JPN
NLD
POLPRT
SWE
USA
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 1 2 3 4 5
EPL
y = -0.031x + 0.116
T-statistics: -3.92***
KBC Investment to GDP
Product market regulations Bankruptcy law
Employment protection legislation
• KBC investments to GDP
• The accumulation and optimal use of KBC requires experimentation => effective reallocation of resources + well-functioning debt and equity funding systems
A “new deal” for innovation
29Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
Substantial changes in various STI policy areas , country self-assessment, 2012-14
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
30
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistant ‘Grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Mutation in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
Governments have increased financial support to business R&D since 2007
31Source: OECD, MSTI Database, June 2014; OECD data collection on R&D tax incentives, 2013, and country responses to the OECD STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
In most countries, 10% to 20% of business R&D is funded by public money.
As a % of total BERD
Driven by more generous R&D tax incentives -> tax competition?
32Source: OECD, based on OECD R&D tax incentive data collection, 2013; country responses to the OECD STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014 and OECD MSTI Database, June 2014
Better access to finance remains an issue for OECD economies
33
Substantial changes in various STI policy areas, country self assessment, 2012-14
Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
More targeted approach in the policy mix for business R&D and innovation
34Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
Changing balance in the policy mix for business R&D and innovation, based on own country ranking, 2014
More SME-targeted tax schemes
35Source: Adapted from OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013.
Profit-making scenario Loss-making scenario
Generosity of tax subsidy for R&D expenditures, 1- B-index, 2013
The policy debate on the legitimacy of industrial policy has resurfaced
36
Substantial changes in various STI policy areas , country self assessment, 2012-14
Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
Selected trends for STI and national STI policies
37
Trend 1 • A modest recovery
Trend 2 • Shifts in global STI landscape
Trend 3 • Persistant ‘Grand’ challenges
Trend 4 • Mutation in STI policies
Trend 5 • Public support to firms
Trend 6 • Public research policy
Challenges of public research policy
38
• Governance and coordination: more autonomous universities, multiple stakeholders (industry, local actors, students etc.)
• Globalisation and openness: keep pace with knowledge/technology development and compete for talents and assets
• Turning science into business: the ‘third’ mission of universities
• Technology convergence: require multidisciplinary research arrangements, platforms, shift away from ‘silo’ approach in doing/funding/evaluating research.
• Ageing workforces: skills gap to be increased and some evidence of disinterest in science among youth.
• Funding public research in times of budgetary austerity
Focus on excellence
39
• Research infrastructures: through national strategy, long-term planning (roadmaps etc.), and investments in capacity and platforms
• New approaches in funding:
• Prioritisation and concentration of resources to reach a critical of mass
• More competitive funding: project-based versus ‘block’ grants, and performance-based block funding.
• Research Excellence Initiatives (REIs): new funding instrument that combines stability of long-term grants and selectivity through competition-based processes. Multidisciplinarity.
• Full economic cost recovery.
• Evaluation has taken on greater importance.
• Internationalisation of universities: recent initiatives to attract talents and raise international visibility (joint programmes, campus offshore, ‘MOOCS’)
Knowledge transfer is a central objective of public research
40
Substantial changes in various STI policy areas , country self assessment, 2012-14CC
Source: Country responses to the STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2014.
For further reading… An infrastructure for knowledge sharing and building
Measurement work
42
Country reviews of innovation
policy (peer reviews)
STI Outlook (Policy database,
benchmarking tools)
OECD Committees 2015-16: impact assessment,
inclusive innovation, foresight
The IPP is a web-based learning tool on innovation policy for policy makers and experts. Co-developed by the OECD and the WB.
43
Coordination across international Organisations: EC and WB
• Taxonomies and common standards to support a dialogue between 2 global platforms: OECD/WB IPP and EC Policy Support Facility (PSF).
• STI Outlook Policy Database: joint development with the EC – next update: June 2015
• Information sharing:
– Publications, briefs, policy/working papers, case studies etc. (>2 000)
– STI e-Outlook (profiles, policy database, benchmarking tools) – next release : June 2015
– IPP.Stat : indicators and visualisation – next update: June 2015
• Identifying issues and solutions: Diagnostic tools to support policy decision process
• Exchanging and networking: Communities of Practices
THANKS!
44
www.oecd.org/sti/outlook
www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/content/STIe-Outlook-2014(forthcoming)
www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/oecd-stio-forward-look(forthcoming)
www.innovationpolicyplatform.org
www.oecd.org/innovation/reviews
Contact: Sandrine [email protected]