12. may 2010 tfeip/eionet workshop jochen theloke latest thinking of the emission inventory...

12. May 2010TFEIP/EIONET WorkshopJochen Theloke

Latest thinking of the emission inventory community

Jochen Theloke, Hugo Denier van der Gon and Chris Dore


Model intercomparison

МСЦ-В

MSC-E

Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000)

based on ESPREME data

0.01 0.1

0.01

0.1

MSCE-HMCMAQ

Mo

de

l, g

/L

Observed, g/L

MSCE-HM = 0.62 ObsCMAQ = 0.68 Obs

30-40% underestimation

based on official data

0.01 0.1

0.01

0.1

MSCE-HMCMAQ

Mo

de

l, g

/L

Observed, g/L

MSCE-HM = 0.32 ObsCMAQ = 0.32 Obs

70% underestimation


Emissions of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb in Europe in the year 2000 (ESPREME data base)

As Cd Cr Ni Pb Source Category tons % tons % tons % tons % tons %

1. Combustion - stationary sources

391 51 367 63 1 394 51 3 795 79 1 623 12

- mobile sources 6 772 52 2. Industrial processes

279 37 162 27 947 35 542 11 4 398 33

3. Other sources

93 12 61 10 370 14 460 10 364 3

TOTAL 763 100 590 100 2 711 100 4 797 100 13 157 100


Future Projections of Pb emissions to air for the EU27

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

20002010

20202030

2050

Other sources

Transport (gasolinecombustion) Waste incineration

Non-ferrous metalproduction Cement production

Iron & steel production

Industrial, residential &commercial boilers Fuel combustion

t/a

EU-27Pb emissions to air

K. Sundseth, J. Pacyna and U. Kugler, Results from the FP6-HEIMTSA Project


As (tons/year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Fuel combustionto produce heatand electrisity

Iron and steelproduction

Other sources,and cementproduction

Sum

EMEP

ESPREME

Cd (tons/year)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600




Sum

EMEP

ESPREME

Cr (tons/year)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Fuelcombustion toproduce heatand electrisity



Sum

EMEP

ESPREME

Ni (tons/year)

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000




Sum

EMEP

ESPREME

Pb (tons/year)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Fuel combustion toproduce heat and

electrisity

Other sources, andcement production

Sum

EMEP

ESPREME


Comparison of the totals for overlapping countries in the ESPREME versus TNO, for 2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

As Cd Cr Hg Ni Pb

Em

issi

on

(to

nn

es) ESPREME

TNO

Theloke, Denier van der Gon, Pacyna, Kummer, Geftler, Friedrich, Nitter, Überarbeitung der Schwermetallkapitel im CORINAIR Guidebook zur Verbesserung der Emissionsinventare und der Berichterstattung im Rahmen der Genfer Luftreinhaltekonvention http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3662.pdf


2000 Merged TNO database vs. ESPREME 2000, for As

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Larg

e sc

ale co

mbu

stion

Small

scale

com

busti

on (E

SPREME liq

uid fu

els o

nly)

Sinter

ing

Primar

y lea

d

Primar

y zinc

Primar

y cop

per

Secon

dary

lead

Secon

dary

copp

er

Cemen

t pro

ducti

on

Coke

prod

uctio

n

Iron

and

steel

foun

dries

Pig iro

n pr

oduc

tion

Open

hear

th fu

rnac

e ste

el

Basic

oxyg

en fu

rnac

e ste

el

Electri

c arc

furn

ace

steel

Chlorin

e pr

oduc

tion

(mer

cury

cell p

lant

s)

Was

te in

ciner

ation

and

crem

ation

pro

cess

es

Road

trans

port

Exhau

st - a

ll fue

ls

Road

trans

port

wear -

all f

uels

Em

issi

on

(to

nn

es)

As TNO

As ESPREME



2000 Merged TNO database vs. ESPREME 2000, for Cd

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Larg

e sc

ale co

mbu

stion

Small

scale

com

busti

on (E

SPREME liq

uid fu

els o

nly)

Sinter

ing

Primar

y lea

d

Primar

y zinc

Primar

y cop

per

Secon

dary

lead

Secon

dary

copp

er

Cemen

t pro

ducti

on

Coke

prod

uctio

n

Iron

and

steel

foun

dries

Pig iro

n pr

oduc

tion

Open

hear

th fu

rnac

e ste

el

Basic

oxyg

en fu

rnac

e ste

el

Electri

c arc

furn

ace

steel

Chlorin

e pr

oduc

tion

(mer

cury

cell p

lants)

Was

te in

ciner

ation

and

crem

ation

pro

cess

es

Road

trans

port

Exhau

st - a

ll fue

ls

Road

trans

port

wear -

all f

uels

Em

issi

on

(to

nn

es) Cd TNO

Cd ESPREME



Missing Sources Accidental/malicious fires

dwellings, factories, other buildings, vehicle fires

Demolition

Corrosion/abrasion of metal structures

Galvanizing

Non-thermal processing of scrap metals e.g. shredding of scrap metals

Industrial processes e.g. cement batching, quarrying, powder coating

Abrasion of road surfaces by motor vehicles


Non-anthropogenic Sources

Non-anthropogenic Sources Natural Sources

not currently included or estimated. Estimates available from Ilyin & Travnikov (2005)

Marine Sources not currently included or estimated. Estimates available from Ilyin &

Travnikov (2005)

Resuspension Estimates available from Ilyin & Travnikov (2005) suggest significant

contributions for Pb and Cd (trebling the 2004 Cd emissions in the UK). However estimates from Vincent and Passant (2006) for Cd, Pb, As, Ni

suggested resuspension was not a major source.


Conclusion (1)

• Further progress has been made in assessing sources and emissions of HMs to the atmosphere at a country and regional (European) level

• At least 3 European wide emission inventories have been presented by groups of emission experts for the reference year 2000: ESPREME (for HMs), TNO ( HMs and POPs), and MSC-E (HMs and POPs)

• Emission estimates prepared by expert groups are higher than the estimates provided by countries (so-called official estimates)

• The modellers community recommended to use the research based emission inventories for HMs e.g. ESPREME in their estimates of concentrations, deposition, and critical load due to more completeness and consistency (=> but not more accuracy!!! )


• There is a need for more iteration between modellers and emission inventory to reduce uncertainties.

• Information on specific episodes and/or regions where the mismatch between modelled and observed concentrations is largest may give us clues which sources to review and focus on. Adjusted inventories could go into the models again, see any improvement?

• Lacking of consistency between national estimates To by-pass this problem it would be good to also work on consistent "scientific" emission databases which do not necessary match with the offcial reported data, do NOT claim to be true but are consistent and thereby better suited for analysis, scenario studies etc.

Conclusion (2)


– There are improvements need to be made

– However we are currently limited by data availability

• Recommendations for Future work

– Point Sources: Obtain more information on whether fugitive emissions are included in current estimates

– Combustion Sources: Obtain more comprehensive data on metal content of fuels

– Brake and Tyre Wear: Review and consolidate existing literature information

– “Missing” Sources: Make some initial estimates by improving PM10 estimates (not straightforward!)

– Natural Sources: Incorporate estimates into emissions inventory

• Validation & Verification

– After conducting these improvements, reassess the estimates derived from modelling in light of updated emissions inventory estimates.

Conclusion (3)


Thank you for your attention

12. may 2010 tfeip/eionet workshop jochen theloke latest thinking of the emission inventory...

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