10th china international polyester & intermediates forum ... · pdf file10th china...

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10th China International Polyester & Intermediates Forum

PX, PTA and PIA markets

CEPSA's View as an Integrated Producer

CEPSA Group: CEPSA Química

HISTORY OF FULL INTEGRATION

PTA & PIA MARKET OVERVIEW

CONCLUSIONS

1

2

3

Table of Contents

4




CONCLUSIONS

1

2

3

Table of Contents

4

38


Company Activity

25,4 million Tons

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

PETROCHEMICALSREFINING MARKETINGELECTRICAL

POWER& GAS

Activity in:Algeria, Colombia,Peru, Egypt, Spain

Net Production :60 KBPSD

4 Refineries:Gibraltar-San RoqueLa Rábida, TenerifeASESA (50%)

Distillation Capacity: 540 KBPSD

� Natural Gas� Propane� Butane� Gasoline� Kerosene� Diesel Oil� Lubricants� Asphalt� Bunker� Aviation

Cogeneration Plants:230 Mw

Combined Cycle Plants780 Mw

Medgaz Gas pipeline2 BCM (20% share)

LARGEST PETROCHEMICALCOMPANY IN SPAIN

Compañia Española de Petroleos, S.A. U. leads an industrial group with activities in the energy sector covering the whole chain from exploration and production of hydrocarbons, natural gas and electricity to oil refining and marketing of derivatives and petrochemicals.

Turnover 2012:3,301 M€

Worldwide Locations

Canada CQ Bécancour (CQ 51%) 1

LAB PlantCQ Montréal (CQ 51%) 2

PTA Plant

NetherlandsSales officeTank storage

SpainMadrid HeadquartersGuadarranque Plant - PTA/PIA/PETPalos de la Frontera Plant - Phenol/AcetonePuente Mayorga Plant - LAB/LABSA/NPSales offices (Barcelona, Valencia, Bilbao) China

Caojing (Shanghai) PlantPhenol/Acetone(future activity)

1 Invest-Québec 49% 2 Petroquisa 28%

PortugalSales office

UKSales office

EE.UU.Sales office

Brazil DETEN (CQ 72%)2

Camaçari PlantLAB/LABSA

ItalySales officeTank storageBelgium

Sales Office

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CONCLUSIONS

1

2

3

Table of Contents

4

A little bit of history – up to the 70’s

pXylene PTA

40


A little bit of history – The 80-90’s

1987 CEPSA acquires 100% of the PTA plant (PTA 90ktm/y + DMT

60ktm/y)

1988 Start-up of PTA-2 (100ktm/y)

1995 Start-up of PTA-3 (250ktm/y)

A little bit of history – End of the 90’s

mXylene PIA

41


A little bit of history – The 00’s

A little bit of history – The 10’s

L2Oxidation /Purification

AIR ACETIC ACID

PARAXILENE

CEPSA

AIR ACETIC ACID

METAXILENE / PARAXILENE

CEPSA

PET

POL+SOLIDS

MARKET MEG

PTA 350Kmt

PIPA 220Kmt

PET 175Kmt

PTA

PIPA

PET

ESTER.

L3Oxidation /Purification

NaphthaNaphtha

42


A little bit of history – 2013:




CONCLUSIONS

1

2

3

Table of Contents

4

43


PTATHE FALLEN

You never know what you have until you lose it

Global PTA Supply & Demand

• Moving from tight in 2011 to overwhelming overcapacity by 2013.• The new capacities provide a new economy of scale

(units>2.000.000 Mt/year )• Rationalization expected to come.

THE MARKET HAS

CHANGED

44


• Asia has more than 80% of PTA production. • Main applications Fiber and PET, accounts for more than 90%• 7% Market growth. Around 75% of this growth is located in China .

PTA Demand and Production

PTA Applications PTA Production by Region

CHINA

DRIVES

THE PTA

MARKET

• Overcapacity and historically low spreads ( <100 USD/Mt).• Several PTA suppliers are close to red numbers today.• A big cost differential between some old and new plants

PTA Margins in Asia

¿ HOW TO SURVIVE

FROM 2013 ONWARDS ?

INTEGRATION TO BE SEEN AS A WAY TO

SURVIVE

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• Integrated on PX from its own refineries.

• Investment in latest technologies.

• Integration on PET.

• Cepsa reducing its PTA commercial sales

year after year to diversify out of the PTA as

it I turning into a pure PX convertor without

own margin.

PTA in CQ

Crucial to survive

in a competitive

market

Adding value to

the chain

Diversification

&

Competitiveness

INTEGRATION BECOMES THE ONLY CHANCE TO REMAIN IN PTA

MARKET FOR SMALL SIZE PTA PLANTS LIKE CEPSA QUIMICA

PXTHE SUPPORTER

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

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• PX units operates between 85 and 90% max in average � operations are linked to refineries, economics against Benzene & Toluene (MSTDP)…

• Utilisation rate below 85% should imply a balanced market but this doesn’t mean that there is enough PX for all new PTA capacities.

A quick view to PX

• Start up of PX plants may be delayed/cancelled or/and rationalization due several different reasons.

• Quite lower real oversupply in PTA.

PX effect on PTA

Not Enough PX for Scheduled PTA capacities

HAVING YOUR OWN PX WILL PROOF TO BE BENEFITIAL

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PETTHE REPLICANT

When your neighbor's house is on fire, carry water to your own

PET Growth

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• PET overcapacity to come. Historical low operating rates.• New plants move from capacities of 200KMt to 1MMt.• Competitiveness will be a determining factor to survive in the future.

PET Global Supply Demand Balance

¿ DOES THIS SOUND

FAMILIAR TO YOU ?

• Asia continues to be the main producing region (50%) but North America and Europe remain important players.

• Lightweighting has had a strong role and remians being relevant.• Recycling trend not to be underestimated

PET Demand and Production

PET demand PET production

NOT EXACTLY

THE SAME

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• Due to the overcapacity, producers will be under margin pressure.• Different grades and specialties of PET. New capacities are bigger, but

economy of scale is not as big as with PTA.• After 2014 there are chances to improve margins thanks to demand

PET margins

SIMILAR DO NOT MEAN TO BE THE

SAME

Why CQ entered into PET

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PIATHE UNKNOWN

It Looked Different on the Model

¿What is PIA?

MetaxylenePIA

Purified Isophthalic Acid

Oxidation

Acetic acid medium

Consumes energy

Solid, white powder, flour flowing (not sugar flowing like PTA), more soluble in water than PTA,…

NaphtaNaphta Mixed XylenesMixed Xylenes MetaxyleneMetaxylene PIAPIA

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PIA Supply / Demand Worldwide

• Important overcapacity in the coming three years after last capacity increases.• We have seen historically that O.R lower than 70% have forced some closures.• Also to reflect that O.R. higher than 90% derives in new investments.• After 2008 crisis impacting mainly NAFTA ad Europe, we have seen a steady recover of

demand that is expected to keep growing during the period.

• PIA plants appear and disappear during the period but always few players in a global market.• Some players are producing in swing PTA/PIA units or former PTA units. Kp, CQ,FCFC.• However, some players have tried to make PIA in the present and in the past also in former PTA

units and haven’t been successful because of different reasons.

PIA Capacities Worldwide

Data in KMt

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PIA Demand Worldwide

• Whilst on PTA demand is mainly in Asia (80%), on PIA, demand is more regularly spread across the regions. Asia remains being the biggest with 60% of share.

• Demand grows at an average of 6% yearly during the period, mainly driven by PET.• 24 Mt lots are delivered to each customer in every delivery. Logistics are complicated as an

average customer consumes 500 Mt/year

PIA Applications PTA Demand Worldwide

Capacity vs Demand: America & EMEA

• America is a quite closed market with a balanced demand/supply situation. Imports are small mainly coming from Korea and Spain due to FTA’s in different countries of the region. It exports a relevant volume mainly into Europe.

• EMEA is a more open market that both imports and exports relevant volumes due to the fact that there is only one producer in the region. Main importers are Korea and USA, followed by Singapore and Japan. During last five years, Europe has suffered a relevant decrease of demand due to the economic crisis, being east Europe and Middle East the growing regions.

Data in KMt

53


Capacity vs Demand: Asia

• Asia is the region with the largest amount of free capacity which will be further increased in the coming two years. It will be reducing from that moment onwards.

• Demand in China represents 50% of total local sales. Being mainly supplied by local producers, Korea and Japan. But the start up of a new plant in Taiwan and the European oversupply might change this balance.

• Demand in Asia is expected to be above 500 KMt in 2018 but supply capacity will reach 850 KMt. There will be a HUGE need of exports with most likely destination being EMEA.

Data in KMt

Characteristics of PIA market

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CONCLUSIONS

1

2

3

Table of Contents

4

55


Conclusions

En CEPSA solo creemos en una innovación, aquella que es útil para ti

谢谢 – THANK YOU -Gracias -

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