101130 - chuong 3 - mo hinh mundell - fleming va tong cau trong nen kt mo (gui sv)

8/7/2019 101130 - Chuong 3 - Mo hinh Mundell - Fleming va tong cau trong nen KT mo (Gui SV)

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30/11/20

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

KINH T V M II

CHNG III:

M HNH MUNDELL

FLEMING V TNG CU

TRONG NN KINH T M30/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 2

CHNG IV: M HNH MUNDELL FLEMING

V TNG CU TRONG NN KINH T M

I. M hnh Mundell Fleming

M hnh mang tn 2 nh kinh t hc l Robert

Mundell vJames Marcus Fleming.

y l MH c Mundell v Fleming pht trin

mt cch c lp trong nhng nm 1960.

MH cho thy

30/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 3


Trong nn kinh t ng chng ta c:

Phng trnh ng IS:

Phng trnh ng LM:

M hnh ny xc nh ng thi mc TN thc t hay

sn lng (Y) v li sut cn bng trong nn KT

ng vi iu kin



Trong nn KT m,

Nhng ng IS c thm 2 thnh t l xut khu (X)

v nhp khu (M). Phng trnh ng IS lc ny l:

Trong



* Gi nh:

Nn KT cn nhiu ngun lc cha c s dng

ht, do vy tng cu quyt nh mc SLCB.

Mc gi khng i

T l lm pht trong nc bng t l lm pht

quc t.



Tiu dng v u t ging nh trong nn KT ng.

Li sut khng nh hng n TD m ch nh hng

n u t I = I (r) v cu tin L = L(Y, r). Nn KT nh, mca, vn t do lun chuyn, tc l

LS trong nc s c xu hng iu chnh bng LSth gii,

T gi hi oi l TGH


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C 2 cch biu din m hnh Mundell

Fleming trn h trc ta :

Cch 1: Ging nh m hnh IS LM trong nn

KT ng ta c th biu din trn

Cch 2: i vi mt nn KT nh, mca, vn

t do lun chuyn,LS l bin ngoi sinh nn ta

c th biu din trn


1. M hnh trn h trc Y r

Tng t nh trong nn KT ng,

Tuy nhin, trong nn KT m,



Bn cnh hai ng IS LM, trong nn kinh t

nh, mca, vn t do lun chuyn chng ta

c thm ng BP (Balance of Payment).



r

Y


2. M hnh trn h trc Y e

a. Th trng hng ha v ng IS*

ng IS* l tp hp tt c nhng im biu

th mi quan h gia TGH (e) v SLCB tha

mn iu kin th trng hng ha cn bng

(APE= Y) vi mc li sutr = r* cho trc.



Khi cc yu t kinh t khc khng i


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APE

450

YY0

E0

E0e0

e

YY030/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 14


b. Th trng tin tv ng LM*

ng LM* l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th miquan h gia TGH (e) v sn lng tha mn iu kinth trng tin t cn bng M/P = L(Y, r*) vi mc lisutr = r* cho trc.

Vi r* c quyt nh ngoi sinh bi th trng tichnh quc t, ch c mt mc thu nhp duy nht cutin L(Y, r*) bng mc cung tin thc t cho trc.



e

Y30/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 16

3. Cn bng chung trn cc th trng

Trn htrc Y r, trng thi cn bng c

xc lp ti

Trn htrc Y e, trng thi cn bng c

xc lp ti


3. Cn bng chung trn cc th trng

r

Y

e

Y30/11/2010 Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU 18

II. M hnh Mundell Flemingtrong iu kin TGH th ni

1. Chnh sch ti kha

Gi s CP thc hin CSTK MR ta s c:

Trn htrc Y r:


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1. Chnh sch ti kha

r

Y

r = r*

Y0

BP

IS0 IS1

LM


1. Chnh sch ti kha

Trn htrc Y e:

Trong c 2 trng hp,


1. Chnh sch ti kha

r

r = r*

Y0

LM

IS0

BP

Y

LM*

IS0*

YY0

e

e0


1. Chnh sch ti kha

Nh vy, trongch TGH th ni v vn t

do lun chuyn,


2. Chnh sch tin t

Gi s NHTW thc hin CSTT mrng

Trn htrc Y r:


2. Chnh sch tin t

Dng vn chy ra nc ngoi s chm dt khi

Nh vy, trn h trc Y r,


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2. Chnh sch tin t

r

Y

r = r*

Y0

BP

IS0 IS1

LM


2. Chnh sch tin t

Trn htrc Y e:

Kt qu, trong c 2 h trc,


2. Chnh sch tin t

LM0*

IS*

YY0

e

e0


2. Chnh sch tin t

Nh vy, CSTT

CSTT tc ng khng cn thng qua li sutv

n c c nh mc LS th gii m thng qua

TGH v do l XK rng.


3. Chnh sch hn ch thng mi

Chnh sch hn ch thng mi

Ti mi mc t gi cho trc, chnh sch nylm gim NK, tng XK rng v dch chuynng IS* sang phi. Kt qu l TGH tng,sn lng khng i.


CS hn ch TM trong ch TGH th ni

r

r = r*

Y0

LM

IS0

BP

Y

LM*

IS0*

YY0

e

e0


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III. M hnh Mundell Flemingtrong iu kin TGH c nh

Trong CTGH c nh, c nh TGH NHTW

phi hy sinh quyn kim sot cung tin. CSTT phiiu chnh cung tin bo v mc t gi c nhc cng b trc.

Nu cu ngoi t tng, NHTW phi bn ngoi t v rtbt ni t v.

Nu cung ngoi t tng, NHTW phi bm thm ni t mua ngoi t.


1. Chnh sch ti kha

Nu CP thc hin CSTK MR

duy tr TGH,


1. Chnh sch ti kha

Trn c h trc Y - e, c IS*/LM*

Kt qu l LS khng i, SL tng ln v ckhuch i theo snhn chi tiu nh m h nh giaoim Keynes d on.

Nh vy, di ch t gi c nh v vn t dolun chuyn,


CSTK trong ch TGH c nh

r

r = r*

Y0

LM

IS0

BP

Y

LM*

IS0*

YY0

e


2. Chnh sch tin t

Gi s NHTW thc hin CSTT MR tng SL.

MSr

duy tr TGH c nh,


2. Chnh sch tin t

Trn c 2 h trc,

Tuy nhin, hot ng mua ngoi t duy tr TGH

lm gim cung tin

Do , vi TGH c nh,


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CSTT trong ch TGH c nh

r

r = r*

Y0

LM

IS0

BP

Y

LM*

IS0*

YY0

e


3. Chnh sch hn ch thng mi

S hn ch thng mi

bi v ging nh CSTK, bin php ny lm

Kt qu l


CS hn ch TM trong ch TGH c nh

r

r = r*

Y0

LM

IS0

BP

Y

LM*

IS0*

YY0

e


IV. Skhc bit li sut gia cc nc

Chng ta vn gi thit vn tdo lun chuyn (hayvn lun chuyn hon ho), tc l ti sn trongnc v nc ngoi thay th hon ho cho nhau, ccnh u t sdi chuyn vn cn bng LS giacc nc.

Tuy nhin, trong thc t l ti sn trong nc vnc ngoi c th thay th cho nhau nhng khnghon ho, hay ni cch khc



Nu ti sn khng thay th hon ho th

Cc nhn t c th lm cho cc ti sn trongnc v nc ngoi khng th thay th hon hocho nhau l: s khc bit v ri ro i vi tisn, ri ro do s thay i TGH, chi ph giaodch, thiu thng tin v cc ti sn nc ngoi,chnh tr bt n,



tnh n s khc bit v li sut, gi s LS

trong nc bng LS th gii cng thm mt

mc bo him , tc l

S gia tng mc bo him ny lm li sut

trong nc tng ln. Khi li sut trong nc

tng ln s c 2 tc ng:


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LS tng s lm cho T gim ko theo s gim

st trong tng cu. Hu qu l

LS tng s lm cho cu tin gim. Vi cungtin khng i, lc ny TN (Y) s tng ln to s cn bng trn th trng tin t.

Kt qu cui cng l



LM0*

IS*

YY0

e

e0

101130 - chuong 3 - mo hinh mundell - fleming va tong cau trong nen kt mo (gui sv)

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