100531 davos ws fekete - global risk forum grf davos 01, 201028.05.2010 bbk referat ii.4 -44-–...

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  • 6/1/2010

    1

    Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 1 -

    SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010

    Dr. Alexander FeketeFederal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany

    KritisKAT

    University of Wrzburg

    Background 1: Multiple Risks

    Multiple hazard and risk assessment

    Contents: Landslide and Earthquake Landuse Infrastructure

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 2 - 2

    Method: GIS, Remote Sensing

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    UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human

    Background 2: Social Vulnerability

    Security

    Social and Infrastructure Flood Vulnerability Index

    Composed of:Social Susceptibility / CapacitiesInfrastructure densityExposure to floods

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 3 - 3

    Method: Statistics, GISData: Census data of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany,Statistical extreme event scenarios of river-flood areas

    Project KritisKAT

    Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany 2009 - 2012

    C t t

    A concept for criticality assessment Criticality criteria

    Deliverables

    Identification of infrastructures critical for society Assessment of impacts due to outages

    Content

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 4 -

    Development of protection levels

    Criticality criteria

    Mid-term goal

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    http://www.wottreng.ch/hieroglyphen.jpg

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 5 -

    Golvin 2006

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 6 -

    Harris 2003

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mt_Vesuvius_79_AD_eruption_3.svg

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    Critical for You

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 7 -

    http://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/desktopdefault.aspx http://www.panoramio.com/photo/24524356 http://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/cms_media/module_bi/2159/1079690_0_org_46935752_gallery.jpg

    Inter- Dependencies

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 8 -

    http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-events.html spiegel.de pixelio.de

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    Criticality is revealed in case of a failureCriticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore.

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 9 -

    Critical Mass

    First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945

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    Fekete 2010

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    Terminology

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 11 -

    Source: http://www.visualthesaurus.com/ 10. Nov. 2009

    CIP - definition

    Critical infrastructures (CI) include organizations and

    systems that have a major importance for the society

    and that if disrupted would comprehensively affect supplyand that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply

    chains, public safety and could lead to further dramatic

    consequences.

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 12 -

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    Do you have Questions?Do you have Questions?

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 13 -

    International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)

    Problem Framing

    Criticality Analysis

    Management Goals

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 14 -

    http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html

    CI Priorities Evaluation

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    Pre-Analysis

    Step 1 Problem framing

    Wh t i th bl ?What is the problem?

    Who is the enduser of this analysis?

    Which infrastructures are of interest?

    What is the target group that is analysed?

    Whi h i th ll t h it f i t t?

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 15 -

    Which is the smallest research unit of interest?

    Which data is necessary / already there?

    Interest scopes

    Scale of the disaster

    National

    Decide onImpact type: Human (Casualties,

    livelihoods, ) Economic Symbolic

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 16 -

    PersonalOne

    company

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    Infrastructure components

    PhysicalPower polesTransmission lines

    Step 2 Infrastructure components

    Infrastructure consists of components

    visible non visible

    etc.

    FunctionalOrganisational processesLawsQuality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 17 -

    Fekete 2002 Iran

    Example: Power Supply HumanStaffRepair teams

    "Choke points"

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 18 -

    Maritime Security, GAO-Bericht, 2007maps.google.de

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    Virtual CI priority list

    Country " Virtualania" CI priority list

    - 2 major roads

    Capitol City

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 19 -

    Davooos City

    The Davos Congress Centre

    Criticality factor:

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 20 -

    http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-center.html

    http://sherwoodsf.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/heads-up-collaborative-solutions-from-davos/

    http://www.idrc.info/photo-singleview.php?imaGe=FB08252008_6_2

    timing

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    Quality & Trust

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 21 -

    Fekete 2001

    Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg

    Virtual CI priority list

    Country " Virtualania" CI priority list

    - 2 major roads

    - 1 ParliamentCapitol City - Davoos city (international

    conferences 2 times a year

    - Water quality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 22 -

    Davooos City

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    3 Criticality Criteria (3CC)

    Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?

    When does something become critical?When does something become critical?

    3 Criticality Criteria Critical amount* Critical timing** Critical quality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 23 -

    *Amount or % of services, assets, population affected)

    **Speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality

    Do you have Questions?Do you have Questions?

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 24 -

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    International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)

    Problem Framing

    Criticality Analysis

    Management Goals

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 25 -

    http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html

    CI Priorities Evaluation

    Simplified criticality analysis

    RelevantHazard

    TriggerEvent

    OtherInfrastr.

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    Society

    Infrastructure

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    The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework

    Analysis Step

    Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels

    3aCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    3bCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 27 -

    3cCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    Selection of the scale of analysis

    Technical resilience

    Th "4R"

    Community resilience

    Th "4E"The "4R" Redundancy Robustness Resources Rapidity

    Lit. Tierney & Bruneau 2007

    The "4E" Engagement, Education Empowerment Encouragement.

    Lit. Edwards 2009

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 28 -

    Fekete 2001Source: IEA 2007: Oil Supply Security

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    Identification of CI

    Robust Element?Single Element?

    Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg

    The "4R of Resilience" Redundancy Robustness Resources Rapidity

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 29 -

    Rapidity

    Power stations and power grid in South Africa (source: http://www.ises.org/sepconew/Pages/CountryCaseStudySA/2.html

    Resources to rapidly replace the functional ability?Lit.: Tierney and Bruneau

    2007

    Virtual CI priority list

    Country "Virtualania"CI priority list- 2 major roads

    - 1 ParliamentCapitol City

    1 Parliament

    - Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year

    - Water quality

    - 2 Transmission lines

    - 3 Power connections with other countries

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 30 -

    Davooos City

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    The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework

    Analysis Step

    Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels

    3aCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    3bCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 31 -

    3cCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    Interdependencies

    Blackout

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 32 -

    http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf

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    The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework

    Analysis Step

    Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels

    3aCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    3bCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 33 -

    3cCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

    Impact level: population

    Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 34 -

    http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/stadiums/stadium=5007759/index.html

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    Cascading effects

    04.11.20062006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instabilitydynamic instability

    Communication error UCTE - NetUCTE = Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity)

    28.05.2010 BBK Referat II.4 - 35 -

    Quelle: UCTE (Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)

    Application: Vulca