10 trends affecting the future of higher education

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10 Trends 10 Trends Affecting the Affecting the Future of Higher Future of Higher Education Education Ralph Wolff Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society World Future Society

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10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education . Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society. Overview of U.S. Higher Education . Greatest diversity of institutions in the world Long considered the best system in the world - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: 10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education

10 Trends Affecting 10 Trends Affecting the Future of the Future of

Higher Education Higher Education Ralph WolffRalph Wolff

President and Executive DirectorPresident and Executive DirectorSenior College Commission, WASCSenior College Commission, WASC

World Future SocietyWorld Future Society

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Overview of U.S. Higher Overview of U.S. Higher Education Education

Greatest diversity of institutions in Greatest diversity of institutions in the worldthe world

Long considered the best system in Long considered the best system in the worldthe world

Major innovations – independent Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community boards of trustees, community colleges, open accesscolleges, open access

Massification since Korean War Massification since Korean War

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Mission DifferentiationMission Differentiation Research Research Liberal arts Liberal arts Comprehensive universitiesComprehensive universities Community collegesCommunity colleges Faith-based Faith-based Specialized/single purposeSpecialized/single purpose

““One solution never fits all.”One solution never fits all.”

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InstitutionsInstitutionsPublic 4-year institutionsPublic 4-year institutions 643 643Public 2-year institutionsPublic 2-year institutions 1,045 1,045Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit

1,5331,533Private 4-year institutions, for-profitPrivate 4-year institutions, for-profit 453453Private 2-year institutions, nonprofitPrivate 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107107Private 2-year institutions, for-profitPrivate 2-year institutions, for-profit 533533TotalTotal 4,3144,314

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Where Students GoWhere Students GoPublic 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%)Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%)Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120 (35%)Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120 (35%)Private 4-year institutionsPrivate 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24%) 4,285,317 (24%)Private 2-year institutionsPrivate 2-year institutions 293,420293,420 (1%) (1%) TotalTotal 17,758,87017,758,870

81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had 81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had graduated from high school in the previous graduated from high school in the previous year attended colleges in their home states. year attended colleges in their home states.

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DemographicsDemographicsWomenWomen 57.3%57.3%Full-timeFull-time 61.7%61.7%MinorityMinority 31.5%31.5%ForeignForeign 3.4% 3.4%

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1. Financial Meltdown1. Financial Meltdown At a time of increased need for higher At a time of increased need for higher

education:education: Public funding cutsPublic funding cuts Endowment decline > 20%Endowment decline > 20% Crunch on lines of creditCrunch on lines of credit Limits on tuition increases at private Limits on tuition increases at private

institutionsinstitutions Increases at public universitiesIncreases at public universities

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3-5 Year Setting3-5 Year Setting Every state will have a structural Every state will have a structural

deficitdeficit Pell increases do not make up Pell increases do not make up

differencesdifferences $50 billion stimulus money for higher $50 billion stimulus money for higher

education is one time, focusededucation is one time, focused Student debt load increasingStudent debt load increasing Student work hours increasingStudent work hours increasing

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Short –Medium Term Short –Medium Term ConsequencesConsequences

Immediate response is to freeze and Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructurecut, not restructure

Will shift most public supported Will shift most public supported institutions to “public assisted”institutions to “public assisted”

Lead to search for new sources of Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint venturespartnerships, joint ventures

Need for new models – are they out Need for new models – are they out there?there?

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2. President Obama’s 2. President Obama’s PrioritiesPriorities

Highest proportion of college graduates Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % → 60%)in the world by 2020 (40 % → 60%)

National high school exit standardsNational high school exit standards Linked to college readiness standardsLinked to college readiness standards $15 billion community college initiative$15 billion community college initiative $50 million for free online courses$50 million for free online courses Centers to develop and share best Centers to develop and share best

practicespractices

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Short – Medium Term Short – Medium Term ImpactImpact

Shift toward vocational and technical Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobseducation/jobs

Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation InitiativesFoundation Initiatives

Recognition that community colleges are Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years agotoday what high schools were 30 years ago

Increased access through open admissions Increased access through open admissions Increased participation of Increased participation of

underrepresented groupsunderrepresented groups

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3. Influence of For Profits and 3. Influence of For Profits and Market CapitalMarket Capital

Fastest growing sectorFastest growing sector Increasing mergers, acquisitionsIncreasing mergers, acquisitions Conversion of nonprofit universitiesConversion of nonprofit universities Joint ventures with mainline institutionsJoint ventures with mainline institutions Growth, scalability and high Growth, scalability and high

profitability of proprietary systemsprofitability of proprietary systems Increasing connections with industry – Increasing connections with industry –

e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeleye.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley

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4. Technology and Distance 4. Technology and Distance EducationEducation

> 2 million students> 2 million students Growing rapidly, increasing competition Growing rapidly, increasing competition Hybrid programs most effectiveHybrid programs most effective Greatest number within traditional Greatest number within traditional

settingssettings High tech does not always mean high High tech does not always mean high

enrollmentenrollment Can be centers of high profitCan be centers of high profit Continuing Congressional concernsContinuing Congressional concerns

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5. Internationalization 5. Internationalization Lincoln Commission – value to US Lincoln Commission – value to US

students of study abroadstudents of study abroad Increase in international students in USIncrease in international students in US Increased competition here and abroad Increased competition here and abroad

for best international studentsfor best international students Infusion of international perspectives -- Infusion of international perspectives --

a course or a holistic perspective?a course or a holistic perspective?

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6. Globalization6. Globalization International recognition of importance of International recognition of importance of

higher educationhigher education Major investments in local systemsMajor investments in local systems Bologna Process will have significant impact Bologna Process will have significant impact

over timeover time Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian

medical school opening in US; new programs medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle EastMiddle East

Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degreesdual degrees

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7. Quality Assurance and 7. Quality Assurance and AccountabilityAccountability

Completion ratesCompletion rates Placement ratesPlacement rates Learning resultsLearning results Costs Costs Debt loadDebt load Executive compensationExecutive compensation Board accountabilityBoard accountability

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Has Quality Declined? Has Quality Declined? NAALNAAL: Performance of college graduates and those : Performance of college graduates and those

with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003:with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003:-- % college graduates proficient in English fell from -- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to 31%40% to 31%-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41%-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41%

National Survey of America’s College StudentsNational Survey of America’s College Students: : significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skillsonly basic quantitative skills

No significant differences between public and private No significant differences between public and private institutionsinstitutions

In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curriculaacademic or technical curricula

EmployersEmployers: college grads lack skills for the : college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys)workplace (AAC&U surveys)

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6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutionsyear Institutions

AllAll 56.4%56.4%MenMen 53.0%53.0%WomenWomen 59.2%59.2%

Visit www.edtrust.org – College Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results OnlineResults Online

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Global CompetitivenessGlobal Competitiveness Drop in high school graduation rates Drop in high school graduation rates

(77.5%)(77.5%) Dropped from 1Dropped from 1stst to 7 to 7thth in college in college

participation rates of 18-24 year oldsparticipation rates of 18-24 year olds 2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 102d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10thth for 25-34 for 25-34 1515thth in completion rates in completion rates Lower than OECD average for science Lower than OECD average for science

and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)scores)

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8. Sustainability and the 8. Sustainability and the UniversityUniversity

President’s Climate CommitmentPresident’s Climate Commitment Involvement of professional associationsInvolvement of professional associations Moving from facilities to curriculum to Moving from facilities to curriculum to

institutionalizationinstitutionalization Major area of scientific researchMajor area of scientific research Need equal work in social and behavioral Need equal work in social and behavioral

sciences, arts and humanities for the change in sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed consciousness needed

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9. 219. 21stst Century Learning Century Learning CompetenciesCompetencies

““We are responsible for preparing our We are responsible for preparing our students to address problems we cannot students to address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge that has not yet foresee with knowledge that has not yet been developed using technology not been developed using technology not yet invented.”yet invented.”

““The problems we have cannot be solved at The problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which we the same level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert Einsteincreated them.” Albert Einstein

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Is Higher Education Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Primarily for Economic

Gain?Gain?

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Or Developing the Nation’s Or Developing the Nation’s Talent and Creativity?Talent and Creativity?

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Changing Character of Changing Character of KnowledgeKnowledge

Sources of KnowledgeSources of Knowledge education institution → everywhere education institution → everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning)(deinstitutionalized learning)

Understanding of KnowledgeUnderstanding of Knowledge static → dynamic (openness to new static → dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to “unlearn”)knowledge, ability to “unlearn”)

Structure of KnowledgeStructure of Knowledge compartmental → holisticcompartmental → holistic

Nature of KnowledgeNature of Knowledge external authority → personal and external authority → personal and contextual contextual

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2121stst Century Skills Century SkillsProblem identification or articulationProblem identification or articulation 11 99Ability to identify new patterns of behavior Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of actionsor new combinations of actions

22 33

Integration of knowledge across different Integration of knowledge across different disciplinesdisciplines

33 22

Ability to originate new ideasAbility to originate new ideas 44 66Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’ 55 1111Fundamental curiosityFundamental curiosity 66 1010Originality and inventiveness in workOriginality and inventiveness in work 77 44Problem solvingProblem solving 88 11

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10. New Forms of Institutions10. New Forms of Institutions Institutional consolidations/closuresInstitutional consolidations/closures ““Cloud” programs across institutionsCloud” programs across institutions The “partnering” universityThe “partnering” university Privatized public universitiesPrivatized public universities Credit banksCredit banks Transnational universitiesTransnational universities

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What Is On Your List?What Is On Your List?

Ralph WolffRalph [email protected]@wascsenior.org