10. The Future of Earth

Is the Earth predictable?

Earthquakes

Volcanoes

Plate configurations

Climate

Extinctions

Earthquake risk

Predicting earthquakes

The L'Aquila Earthquake: Science on Trial

April 2009

Magnitude 6.9

309 killed

65,000 of 72,000 made homeless

Seismologists to blame?

7 men jailed for 6 years

“vague, generic and ineffective” advice

Unpredictable?

"Earthquake prediction will only become possible with a detailed knowledge of the earthquake process. Even then, it may still be impossible."

Dr Dan Faulkner

(University of Liverpool)

96% left breedingpool 5 days beforeearthquake (Grant& Halliday 2010)

Better off with toads?

Predicting volcanic eruptionsPredicting volcanic eruptions

EyjafjallajökullEyjafjallajökull

Seismometry

Thermal imaging

Klyuchevskoy volcano, Russia

Gas sampling

Eruption cyclicity

Predictive tectonics

Predictive extinctions?

The Big Five

The Big Sixth?

Too fast?

The Uniquely Big Sixth?The Uniquely Big Sixth?

A cautionary Christmas tail