10 key trends to watch

8/8/2019 10 Key Trends to Watch

1/7


2/7

StrategyDynamicsGlobalLimited.www.globaltrends.com,2010. 2

10KeyTrendstoWatch

TraceyKeysandThomasW.Malnight

Takingaholisticviewoftheglobaltrendsimpactinghowweliveandworkiscritical. So

tooismakingsenseofwhicharethetrendswhicharegoingtobemostimportantto

watchin

the

short

to

medium

term.

Here

we

outline

10

key

trends

not

in

order

of

importance,whichwebelieveshouldbeonmostexecutiveswatchlist.

1. ThemobiletimemachineMobilityiseverywhere:resources,people,productsandservices,capital,knowledge,

beliefs,opinionsandmore.Tradeingoodsandserviceshasgrownfarbeyondglobal

GDPin

the

last

three

decades,

while

product

lifecycles

are

falling.

The

ongoing

revolutioninglobalcommunicationstechnologiesoffersorganizationstheabilityto

work24/7acrosstimezones,whilecompaniesinemergingeconomiesarebenefiting

fromfasterknowledgeflowstorapidlycatchtheleadersinmanyindustries.Asmobile

broadbandpenetrationoutstripsfixedbroadband,billionsofpeoplearepermanently

on,abletoworkfromwhateverlocationtheyhappentofindthemselvesin,blurring

theboundariesbetweenworkandpersonaltime. Datahasbecomeadelugeand

informationcanbedisseminatedgloballyinminuteswithatweet,whileanever

expandingarrayofdigitalentertainmentandsocialmediacompeteforourtime.Inthis

worldofmobileexpansion,timeisbeingcompressed.Organizationswiththecapabilities

tomanagethedynamicsofthismobiletimemachinewillhaveanadvantagebothwith

talentandinnovation.

2. Potentialforcrisesinwater,foodandelectricityThe

worlds

population

has

more

than

doubled

in

the

last

50

years

from

3

billion

in

1960

to6.9billionin2010andisprojectedtoreach9.1billionby2050.1Risingnumbersof

people,alongwithincreasingaffluencewillplacesignificantstrainoncriticalresources.

By2030,thewatergapcouldbeasmuchas40%betweendemandandsupply.2With

70%offreshwaterusedforagriculture,foodsecurityisinextricablylinked.Withstaple

cropsalsobeingimpactedbyclimatechangeeventssuchasdroughtstheFAOsuggests

foodpriceswillbestructurallyhigherinfuture.Thecapitalrequiredtomeetprojected


3/7


energydemandthroughto2030isestimatedat$1.1trillionperyear(or1.4%ofglobal

GDP).3Withoutwidespreadactiontoaddresshowweusetheseresources,geopolitical

andsocialtensionsmayrise,alongwithnegativeeconomicimpact.

3. TheglobaltechnologyraceTechnologyofferspotentialsolutionsformanyoftheworldspressingproblems, the

keyquestionsbeing whenthepromisedsolutionswillarriveandwhowilldeliver

them. Theraceisonforleadershipincriticaltechnologiesincludingbuildingblock

technologiessuchasnanotechnologyandbiotechnology,aswellasappliedtechnologies

thataddress

global

issues

including

health/ageing

and

resource

challenges.

Expect

BRIC

economiestobeattheforefrontalongwithindustrialnations,asR&Dspendingshifts

towardsBRIC,andgovernmentsencourageadvances,e.g.Chinaisactivelypursues

leadershipincleantechnologies,whileIndiaisbuildingglobalnuclearpowerknowledge.

4. CompetingintheBRICandbeyondEconomicpowerisshiftinginexorablytoBRIC,andwillcontinuetodoso.In2010,

ChinaseconomysurpassedthatofJapantobecometheworldssecondlargestand

Indiaisforecasttobethefifthlargestconsumereconomyby2025.4 Thesecountrieswill

accountforthemajorityoftheemergingglobalmiddleclass.Buttheplayingfieldin

BRICisgettingcrowdedbothbymultinationalsandhomegrownglobalchallengers.

CompaniesneedtostartlookingbeyondBRICtothenexttierofattractivefuture

markets. Basedonsize,growthpotential,naturalresourcepositionsandglobal

influenceoverthenext30to40years,thesemarketsarelikelytoinclude:Indonesia,

Mexico,Turkey,

Iran,

South

Korea,

Egypt,

South

Africa,

Thailand,

Vietnam,

Pakistan,

Bangladesh,thePhilippinesandArgentina.AlreadyBRICcompaniesareactivelymoving

tocompeteintheseregionsthequestionforfirmsfromadvancedeconomiesishowto

balancetheirfocusbetweenadvancedeconomies,BRICandbeyond.


4/7


5. GrowinginfluenceofweandmenotjusttheyThelasttwentyyearshaveseentheemancipationof influence. Peopleworldwidehave

seentheirabilitytomakechoicesincreasebeyondimagination,evenastrustin

governments,religions,andbusinesses hasfallen. Communicationsadvancesand

increaseddemocratizationhaveallowedpeoplefindtheirvoicesandexchangeideas,

knowledgeandexperiences,withaneverbroadeningreach.Thepowerofmehas

beenamplifiedthroughcommunitiesofchoice,includingsocialnetworksandbuying

groups,whicharechanginghowweinteractandbehave.However,trustanddialogueis

criticaltobuildingandmaintainingrelationshipswithandamongthesecommunities.

Withnewtoolstotrackthedynamicsofinfluence,organizationsthatactively

understandandmanageinfluencehavetremendousopportunities,forexample,to

broadeninnovation,cocreatewithconsumersandtapintothevalueofnetworks.

6. TheriseofnewpowerbrokersNewpowerbrokersareincreasingtheirinfluenceontheworldstage,fromtheeconomic

powerhousesofBRICtosocialnetworkstotheG20,whichgivestherapidlydeveloping

economiesagreatervoiceinglobalissues. Newfinancialpowerbrokershavealso

emerged,includingRDEcentralbanks,sovereignwealthfunds,privateequityandhedge

fundsandstateholdersbearingstimulusfundingalongwiththeirconstituenttax

payers. Thevastassetsofthesefinancialplayers,inaworldwhere44oftheworlds

largest100economicentitiesarecompanies,5willimpactnotonlycorporate

governance,buttheshapeofindustrysectors. Together,thesenewpowerbrokerswill

alsohaveanincreasingroleinshapingglobaleconomic,politicalandsocialdevelopment

therelativeinfluenceoftheUS,JapanandEuropeislikelytodeclineundertheburden

ofheavy

national

debts

which

will

drive

more

internal

focus

and

reduce

their

ability

to

fundinternationalprojectsofalltypeswhetheraid,militaryorscientific.Theageofthe

superpowerisgivingwaytoanageofmultiplepowerbrokers.


5/7


7. Interdependenceandcompetitionacrossindustries,notjustwithinIndustryboundariesareblurringandsoarethoseoftheorganizationsthatcompetein

them. Valuespacesareincreasinglybeingdefinedbyconsumers,notfirms. Takehealth

andwellnessintheconsumersmindthisextendswellbeyondpharmaceuticalsand

doctorstofood,fitness,beauty,onlineservicesandmore.Whataboutmusicwhich

playerswouldyoupersonallyinvestin?Asboundariesblurandeverythingbecomes

mobile,playersareincreasinglyinterdependent,havingtobalancehowtheycompete

andcooperatewithothers,potentiallyfulfillingmultiplerolesinanetworkoracross

industries. Thisextendstointeractionswithsociety,wherenewformsofnetworksand

smartpartnershipsareemerging,todelivercommercialandsocietalbenefits

simultaneously.

8. FighttoownthenewconsumerWith

more

consumers

globally

with

more

wealth,

choice

and

desire

to

get

involved

in

cocreation,thefightisontoownthenewconsumeraconsumerthatwantsmore

involvementandpersonalization,thatwantsitallanywhere,anytime,andwantsittobe

cheapandchicastheclimateoffrugalitybites. Businessesatallpointsinthevalue

chainaretryingtoconnectwiththeconsumertobuildreputations,trust,loyalty,

returns,marketpositionandultimatelythelicensetocompete.Theadvantageofthose

ontheconsumerfrontlineisbeingchallengedbyfirmsoneormorestepsremoved,e.g.,

throughdirectsalesorbuildingreputationsthatmeanconsumerswanttheirproductor

serviceaspartofthesolution,e.g.,IntelInside. Asconsumersincreasinglydemand

experiencesandsolutions,thisfightmayevolveintonew,creativeformsofcooperation

betweenfirms

and

others,

e.g.

Apple

and

app

developers.


6/7


7/7


Footnotes:

1. Source:UN2. Source:ChartingOurWaterFuture,The2030WaterResourcesGroup,2009.3. Source:IEA,figuresin2008USdollars.4. Source:McKinseyGlobalInstitute5. 5.Source:Fortune,IMF,StrategyDynamicsGlobalLimitedanalysis

AbouttheAuthors

TraceyKeysisDirectorofStrategyDynamicsGlobalLimitedandalsoworkswiththeInternationalInstituteforManagementDevelopment(IMD),inLausanne,Switzerland, whereThomasMalnightisaprofessorofstrategyandgeneralmanagement.TraceyKeysandThomasW.Malnight. Allrightsreserved. Nottobeusedorreproducedwithout

permission.

Alsolookforthese10keytrendstowatchintheforthcomingTrendReport2011fromleadingconsumertrendsexpertswww.trendwatching.com.

10 key trends to watch

Documents