1

SPARC Themes

Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate

(SPARC)Tom Peter (ETH Zurich) and Ted

Shepherd (Univ. of Toronto), co-Chairs

Norm McFarlane, SPARC IPO Director

2

Current SPARC Structure

3

• SPARC vehicles include

– SPARC Newsletter (279 citations in the WoS) – SPARC Reports (174 citations in the WoS) – Refereed review papers– Papers from SPARC activities (e.g. CCMVal)– Interdisciplinary workshops to cross boundaries– Working groups, e.g. data assimilation– General Assemblies (normally every 4 years)

• Last one was in Bologna in 2008, next will be in 2014

• The WCRP Open Science Meeting will replace the SPARC GA for the intervening (2008-2014) period

4

• The largest and highest-profile SPARC activity at the present time

• Just completed a comprehensive peer-reviewed SPARC Report, involving 18 CCM groups and over a hundred scientists as authors and reviewers– Process-oriented validation of models– Detailed evaluation of radiative and chemical schemes– Statistical evaluation of ozone projections– Effect of stratosphere on troposphere

• Is providing critical input into the 2010 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment

Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity

(CCMVal)

5

• Quantitative performance metrics were applied to all diagnosics

• In the end we backed off from using them to weight model projections

6

• Statistical uncertainties in projections were quantified and reduced through better statistical methods, more models, and longer simulations

2010

2006

NH midlatitude total ozone

7

Comparison with measurements is building the case for better measurements, leading to specific recommendations directed at GCOS and CEOS

Seasonal cycle of water vapour

Black is multi-model mean, gray shading MIPAS, diamonds are ACE-FTS

8

• Very much motivated by the CCMVal Report• First step is to collect all available chemical data sets and

compare their seasonal cycles, etc., working closely with the measurement scientists– Will provide a “user’s guide” to the datasets (as with

SPARC Report on Middle Atmosphere Climatologies)• Need to capture existing knowledge, recognizing that the

“golden age” of stratospheric composition measurements is coming to an end– Will be an invaluable reference for model validation– Will also stimulate reprocessing efforts– Will also identify measurement gaps

• We are anticipating co-sponsorship with CEOS ACC

SPARC Data Initiative

9

• Veronika Eyring (lead for CCMVal, and SPARC SSG member) sits on WGCM– Together with IGAC/AC&C, SPARC through CCMVal

provided a stratosphere-troposphere ozone forcing database for CMIP5

• Adam Scaife (nominated for SPARC SSG) sits on WGSIP– Is coordinating SPARC involvement in CHFP and

CMIP5 C20C• We have nominated Saroja Polavarapu (lead for SPARC

Data Assimilation Working Group) to sit on WGNE

Interactions with WCRP modelling groups

10

• Bringing together measurement scientists, process modellers, climate modellers, and theorists

• The challenge is that each measurement technique sees a different piece of the gravity-wave spectrum (also the process is highly intermittent)– Initial planning workshop in March 2008– Review paper (M.J. Alexander et al., Q.J.R.M.S. in

press)– Team workshop at International Space Science

Institute (ISSI) in Bern in February 2010, to produce a self-consistent data set for model validation

– Proposed Chapman Conference in February 2011

SPARC Gravity-wave Initiative

11

• Bergen, Norway, 25-29 October 2010– Initiated by SPARC, discussed at JSC meetings,

refined through a community consultation process• There seems to be a consensus that there is untapped

potential for predictability in polar regions• Need to look at couplings between different components

of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land), as well as couplings with lower latitudes

• Focus will be process-oriented, in a workshop setting with around 80 participants, but also forward-looking

• Outcome will be a review paper, as well as ideas for programmatic next steps for the WCRP

WCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Timescales

12

– Ted Shepherd (U. Toronto, Chair)– Julie Arblaster (BMRC/NCAR)– Cecilia Bitz (U. Washington)– Thierry Fichefet (Catholic U. Louvain)– Tore Furevik (Geophys. Inst., Bergen)– John Walsh (IARC, U. Alaska)– Vladimir Kattsov (Main Geophys. Obs, St. Petersburg)– John Marshall (M.I.T.)– Vladimir Ryabinin (WCRP)– Ellie Farahani (SPARC IPO)

• The program is currently under development– Suggestions for participants are welcomed by the SOC

Scientific Organizing Committee

13

Ozone Profiles

• Need to provide a near global, long-term data set

• Ongoing, authenticated measurements of ozone profiles required

• Consistent altitude ranges, sampling times/periods, resolution

• Demise of SAGE II:lost ability to obtain such a data

• Problem needs to be addressed if the recovery of ozone is to be tracked

• Ground-based networks have improved (e.g. SHADOZ) but not helpful in the lower stratosphere

• Profiles of ozone trends

14

Trends before and after 2000

SPARC WaVAs-2Water Vapour Assessment 2

New SPARC Report

chairs: Cornelius Schiller, Tom Peter, Karen Rosenlof

1.Introduction2.Data Quality3.Supersaturation4.UTS climatology and trends5.Synthesis

Sep '08 Kick-off, BolognaOct '08 Informal mtg, HawaiiMar '09 Author mtg, TorontoSept '09 Planning mtg, Corsica

Now Open SPARC data baseNow Chapter writingMid '10 Chapter meetingsEnd '10 ReviewMid '11 Report completed

15

AquaVIT2007: Core Instrument Accuracy

15

AquaVIT whitepaper, published: https://aquavit.icg.kfa-juelich.de/AquaVit/

AquaVIT hygrometer intercomparisonin AIDA cloud chamber (blind expts)

SPARC WaVAs-2

16

Objectives: •Understand role of emissions on atmospheric composition•Relate concentrations to radiative forcings/climate change•Improve process understanding and representation

Martyn Chipperfield WCRP-SPARC

Phil Rasch & Sarah Doherty IGBP-IGAC

WCRP-SPARC /IGBP-IGAC

Atmospheric Chemistry

& Climate Initiative

17

AC&C Overall Organization:Phil Rasch & Sarah Doherty (IGAC)Martyn Chipperfield (SPARC)Veronika Eyring (CCMVal contact, SPARC)

Modeling Activities: 20 year Hindcast

Peter Hess, Jennifer Logan, Oliver Wild What controls the vertical distribution of

species? Step 1: Focus on 5km->tropopauseCéline Mari, Michaela Hegglin, Mary Barth new leads

Future Scenarios: Sensitivities & UncertaintiesDrew Shindell, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz

“Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate”: Tami Bond, Piers Forster, David Fahey

AC&C Initiative: Activities for Phase I

18

AC&C

19

Plus an addition in 2009:

“Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate”

~ Background:

• many studies on BC optical properties, radiative forcing, interactions with clouds, with disparate results

• summary of current state of knowledge would benefit science community (esp. going into AR5)

• a “call” from the NGO/policy realm for a scientific summary statement on BC and climate, in the context of making decisions around near-term mitigation of global warming

~ New “gold standard”:

•associated change in source with climate response, i.e. accounting for co-emitted species.

AC&C

20

March 2006Pune, IndiaIGBP/ WCRP

SC/SSG

January 2007First Workshop First assembly of

model center participants,

agreement on issues

Jan 2008 Teleconferen

ce Real work

begins, Teleconferenc

e with the leads of the 4

activities

June 2008

Workshop Joint

with HTAP in

Washington DC

August 2006

Planning WorkshopSelect OC toTarget issues

& Topic, Identify

participants

2007Initiate

cooperation with HTAP

AC&C Timeline

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

“Bounding BC” lead

author mtgs.

Sept, Jan

Sept ’09, Jan

’10“Boundin

g BC” lead

author mtgs.

“Bounding BC” lead

author mtg. May

IPCC AR5

early 2009Harmonized emissions scenarios

(incl. short-lived

species)June 2009EOS article on AC&C published

June 2009AC&C

at CCMVal

mtg.

Model runs finishedfor

“Hindcasts” & “Future

Scenarios”

Oct 2009Joint

SPARC/IGAC SSG: AC&C-

CCMVal coordination

21

Aerosols /Geoengineering

SPARC Report N°4: SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (2006)

SPARC Volcano WorkshopZurich 6-10 Juny 2009

Pinatubo, Jan 1992

Geo-engineering

22

GeoengineeringPrevious assumption much too optimistic

23

The SPARC Office Beyond 2011

Status quo:

• Largest portion of the cash support:Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS)

• Matched by cash/in-kind support: Canadian Space Agency, Environment Canada, and the University of Toronto

• CFCAS funding for the SPARC IPO committed through Dec 2011

• No prospective Canadian funding sources to replace the CFCAS

• In the absence of this support it will not be possible to maintain the SPARC IPO in its current location

The way forward:

Consider alternative locations/non-Canadian funding sources

24

• SPARC and IGAC: much in common, complementary activities

• SPARC and IGAC: also have distinct foci

• Shared responsibility for AC&C cross-cutting initiative

• Enhance role of CCMVal in the future: a stronger connection to tropospheric chemistry climate models

• While continuing to focus on climate issues, complement the strong IGAC focus on air quality

WCRP/SPARC, IGBP/IGAC perspectives

and programmatic issues

Concluding discussion in the joint day of the SPARC/IGAC SSG/SSC

25

The way ahead

SPARC’s metamorphosis: The “stratosphere/troposphere topic”

SSG Mtg 2009 Kyoto: joint day with IGAC SSG Mtg 2010 Pune: discuss/plan upcoming extension

into the troposphere SSG Mtg 2011 Denver? joint day of all 4 core projects?

• Tropospheric Chemistry:Interface with IGAC/IGBP is well defined, AC&C / CCMVal are going strong

• Tropospheric Dynamics:enhance trop/strat exchange, trop/strat dynamical coupling