1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed 5 seed 6 seed 7 seed ......1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed 5 seed 6 seed 7...

1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED

DUKE MICHIGAN ST. LSU VIRGINIA TECH Mississippi st. MARYLAND LOUISVILLE VCU W-L 29-5 28-6 26-6 24-8 23-10 22-10 20-13 25-7

W-L Top 25 9-4 5-3 4-2 2-6 3-6 2-6 3-8 0-1

W-L 26-50 4-1 8-0 5-2 3-2 4-1 4-2 3-2 1-0

W-L 51-100 4-0 5-2 8-2 4-0 8-3 7-1 3-1 5-3

W-L Last 10 GAMES 7-3 10-0 8-2 6-4 7-3 6-4 3-7 9-1

Home/ Away/Neutral 15-2/7-2/7-1 15-1/8-4/4-1 15-2/9-1/2-3 14-2/5-5/5-1 14-3/5-5/4-2 15-3/6-5/1-2 14-4/5-6/1-3 16-1/8-4/1-2

Conference ACC B10 SEC ACC SEC B10 ACC A10

Conf Record 17-4 18-4 16-3 13-7 11-9 13-8 11-9 16-3

Conf Champ: Y/N YES YES NO NO NO NO NO NO

Ken Pom Rank 3 4 18 11 21 24 17 37

RPI 1 10 13 27 24 29 33 25

SOS 2 20 25 51 11 12 4 66

Off Efficiency 6 4 10 11 14 27 29 172

Def Efficiency 6 8 62 25 51 22 17 7

Ken Pom Raw

Off 120.1 121.7 118.5 118.4 117.4 113.8 113.4 104.3

Def 88.1 90.4 97.5 94 96.7 93.8 92.4 88.6

TEMPO 18 182 66 337 178 274 194 136

Team: FG % 47.7% 48.6% 46.2% 47.6% 47.2% 45.4% 43.4% 44.2%

EFG % Offense 60 16 124 8 28 119 164 177

EFG % Defense 9 6 157 92 148 17 20 3

Turnover % Offense 122 188 155 109 227 262 120 280

Turnover % Defense 92 344 58 27 102 352 308 9

FT % 137 117 56 229 205 190 113 90

3pt fg % 30.2% 38.4% 32.3% 39.4% 37.8% 35.3% 34.2% 30.7%

3 POINT RATE 37.6% 37.8% 34.3% 45.7% 39.0% 37.0% 43.7% 41.1%

PPG 83.5 78.8 81.4 74.5 77.3 71.3 74.5 71.4

Opp PPG 67.6 65.5 73 62.1 70.1 65.1 67.8 61.6

Rebounding Margin per game 6.1 9 5.1 2.6 3.7 8.5 3.6 1.4

Coaches Prev NCAA App 34 21 0 7 10 8 8 0

FF Trips 12 7 0 0 3 0 0 0

City,State of Campus Durham, NC East Lansing, MI Baton Rouge, LA Blacksburg, VA Starkville, MS College Park, MD Louisville, KY Richmond, VA

Distance to 64/32 235 miles 537 miles 603 miles 2671 miles 2232 miles 717 miles 588 miles 372 miles


Distance to Final Four 1,201 miles 630 miles 1,209 miles 1,043 miles 1,006 miles 1,107 miles 716 miles 1,221 miles

ATS Record 18-16 24-10 19-12-1 16-14-1 16-17 16-15-1 17-14-1 20-11- 1

Conference ATS Record 9-12 17-6 14-5 8-11- 1 9-11 12-9 11-9 13-6

O/U record 9-23- 2 14-19- 1 19-12 16-14- 1 16-17 15-17 14-19 12-18

9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED

UCF Minnesota Belmont Temple Liberty Saint Louis Yale Bradley Play In Winner

3 things to like

36th in DE, lot of big bodies

When Amir Coffey can get his,

Minnesota is successful. 12-3 when he scores 18 or more

Incredibly effecient offense, 20th in OE, 3rd in offensive EFG, shoot 37.1% from 3 and 2nd overall in

the land from 2

Top 100 OE and DE 12th in the country in

EFG

46th overall in DE, EFG on the defensive

side is 26th

11th in the country in offensive EFG

Shoot 36.8% from 3, 58th in the country

NDST shoots it well, 52 overall in OEFG.

NC Central is 22nd in the country on the

offensive glass

Tacko Fall is a name you may not be

familiar with. He is 7'6" and is a game

changer

Have beaten Purdue twice in the last 11

days

Dylan Windler is not talked about enough. 12th in the country in

true shooting percentage at 68.6%.

Averages 21.4 PPG

Beat Houston by home at 4 and played

them tough on the road, lost by 7 .

BONUS- Coaches last season. May rally

Great %'s on all facets of shooting,

65th from 3, 7th from 2 and 7th from the

line

They're a talented team that's had a lot

of roster adversity throughout the year, seem to be peaking

at the right time

Play very fast, 44th in tempo and 57th in possession length,

will be able to keep up and score

Darrell Brown can get white hot and can

create his own shot in late-game

situations

Probably a great group of kids

BJ Taylor, Aubrey Dawkins, and Terrell

Allen are all upperclassmen

guards that can make big perimeter shots

Pitino's kid against Louisville, have to think that is extra

motivation and Big Rick will be involved

Score in bunches. Have scored 80 or more in 20 of their

games

Don't turn the ball over, 22nd in the

country in offensive TO %

Miss. St is 224th in the country

defending the 3. Could be the

difference in Round 1

Javon Bess is the player to watch for the Billikens, had 24

against Davidson

Shoot 37.4% from 3, good for 42nd in the country. LSU doesn't necessarily defend it

well, 161st in the land

Beat Penn State in November (shoulder

shrug emoji). Also won their

conference, won 5 of their last 6

Zion blows a shoe out in warmups?

3 things to DISLIKE

64.5 % from the FT line, 333rd in the

country. Close game late and this will come into play

Horrible shooting %'s, 284th from 3,

242nd from 2, 283rd from the stripe, EFG

overall is 284th

Not a deep team. Only get 27.7% of their minutes from the bench which is

246th overall

Lost to Tulsa by 18 and Penn by 7

Brutal on the offensive glass, 258th

Not good on offense, 205th in OE and their shooting percentages

are horrible

Played one team in the top 70, Duke and lost by 32. Best W a 4

point win against Miami in December on a neutral court

Bottom of the barrel in the country

shooting from 2 point range, 46.7%, 302nd

overall

THEY

Going against VCU off the bat and they

have an elite defense

Louisville's D should smother them

265th in the country on the offensive glass

-2.9 rebounding margin, 296th in the

country

Best wins? 2 against Lipscomb

Virginia Tech not a good matchup for

them

An average defense, even for the Ivy

League

Don't force TO's, aren't good on the offensive glass and

their offensive EFG is 221st in the country

PLAY

They may be big, but you can get to the

offensive glass on the Knights. Second

chance points are their kryptonite.

They did most of their damage in The Barn. The Gophers

were 2-9 in true road games.

Nick Muszynski's health is still

uncertain. The big guy's absence in the

OVC title game might have been the

difference between winning and losing.

Shoot 33.1% from 3, 204th overall in offensive EFG

Play at a very slow tempo, 349th to be

exact. They get matched up with a run and gun team,

bad news bears

Might just be happy with reaching the dance after an up-and-down year.

Hokies are finally healthy and are

hungry.

They're not very disruptive

defensively, towards the bottom of the

country in forced TOs

Yes, MSU has been uninspiring of late in the tournament but they still play MSU

DUKE

1 SEED 2 Seed 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED

VIRGINIA TENNESSEE PURDUE KANSAS ST. WISCONSIN VILLANOVA CINCINNATI MISSISSIPPI

W-L 29-3 29-5 23-9 25-8 23-10 25-9 28-6 20-12

W-L Top 25 7-3 6-4 2-4 3-4 1-5 1-2 0-3 3-6

W-L 26-50 6-0 4-0 7-2 5-2 9-2 1-2 4-1 1-1

W-L 51-100 3-0 7-0 7-2 7-2 5-2 16-4 13-1 5-5

W-L Last 10 GAMES 9-1 6-4 7-3 7-3 6-4 7-3 9-1 5-5


Conference ACC SEC B10 B12 B10 BE Amer SEC

Conf Record 17-3 17-3 16-5 15-5 15-7 16-5 16-4 10-9

Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO NO YES YES NO

Ken Pom Rank 1 8 10 23 12 26 32 44

RPI 3 6 16 18 26 14 15 65

SOS 24 32 17 30 23 18 59 67

Off Efficiency 2 3 5 102 52 16 46 33

Def Efficiency 5 34 32 4 3 73 28 65

Ken Pom Raw

Off 123.6 122.5 121.1 108 110.8 117 111.6 112.8

Def 87.9 95.5 95 87.7 87.1 98.2 94.5 97.7

TEMPO 353 155 276 342 332 333 338 129

Team: FG % 47.8% 49.5% 44.6% 43.1% 45.3% 43.9% 43.2% 45.9%

EFG % Offense 18 20 86 231 132 62 256 74

EFG % Defense 4 35 118 53 10 139 54 165



FT % 258 175 278 246 308 108 48 220

3pt fg % 40.9% 36.2% 36.4% 33.6% 36.6% 35.3% 35.0% 35.8%

3 POINT RATE 38.6% 31.8% 44.5% 38.2% 34.1% 53.5% 33.1% 39.5%

PPG 71.8 81.7 76.2 65.8 69.1 74.5 71.7 75.4

Opp PPG 55.1 69.5 66.8 59.2 61.4 67.1 62.2 70.4

Rebounding Margin PG 5 3.2 5.2 1 -0.3 2.7 5.2 1.5

Coaches Prev NCAA App 8 23 11 12 2 15 10 5FF Trips 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 0City,State of Campus Charlottesville, VA Knoxville, TN W Lafayette, IN Manhattan, KS Madison, WI Villanova, PA Cincinnati, OH Oxford, MSDistance to 64/32 362 miles 358 miles 853 miles 1766 miles 2121 miles 217 miles 106 miles 543 milesDistance to 16/8 493 miles 245 miles 186 miles 633 miles 451 miles 665 miles 102 miles 892 milesDistance to Final Four 1,150 miles 953 miles 535 miles 556 miles 272 miles 1,158 miles 707 miles 912 miles

ATS Record 23-9 17-15- 1 17-14- 1 19-13-1 16-16-1 20-14 14-20 23-9Conference ATS Record 14-6 11-10 11-9- 1 14-5- 1 10-11- 1 12-9 7-14 12-7O/U record 16-16 19-14 17-15 13-20 13-18- 1 12-19- 2 16-17- 1 13-19


Oklahoma Iowa St. Mary's Oregon UC Irvine Old Dominion Colgate Gardner Webb

3 things to like

Defense is elite, 23rd in DE. 28th overall in defensive EFG, 21st

against 2's

Elite in OE, 15th in the country. Shoot

the 3 at 36.1%

Elite OE, 21st in the country. 49th in EFG

Oregon is on fire, winning their last 8

games. Dana Altman one of the most

underrated coaches in the country

Have won 16 in a row by an average of 14.4

points per game

48th in DE, 14th in DEFG. Hang their hat

on their defense

Play at slow tempo (263), good OFF Eff (63rd), take good

shots- 15th in country EFG, shoot

39.1% from 3 (13th), 53.9% from 2 (46th),

and 74.3% from FT

29th in the country in Offensive EFG %,

shoot 37.7% from 3

Have good wins over Wofford, Florida, Texas & Kansas

Tyler Cook is legit inside, averages 15 PPG and 8 boards.

Great compliment to their outside

shooters

Play extremely slow and do not let

opposing teams shoot a lot of 3

pointers (opposing teams score 25.1% of their points from 3, 343rd). Good recipe

for an upset

In their last 8 wins, giving up an average of 54.25 PPG. High

level defensive team, 18th in DE, 25th in DEFG and 50th in forcing turnovers

Number 1 defense in the country inside

the 3 point arc, teams shooting

40.6% from 2. Only allow teams to shoot 3's a third of the time

Have wins over VCU and Syracuse. Their coach Jeff Jones is

one to root for as he has been battling prostate cancer

If Ivanauskas and Rayman get hot - watch out- each

shoot 43% from 3 ball

I hear Boiling Springs, NC is nice this time of

year

Lon Kruger is overrated. May get by Ole Miss, but has

hands full with Virginia and Tony

Bennett

Limit turnovers on the offensive side,

17.1% which is good for 75th in the

country

74.5% from the FT line

Defend the 3 really well, 10th in the land

Beat Texas A&M & St. Mary's on the

road, also a win over Montana. Match up

well with K State

32nd in the country with a 5.1

rebounding margin

Because of the good shots and the 3's -

they'll score it if someone sleeps on

them. 75+ points every game but 1

since 2/4

Have seen Virginia lose this game before... which

means a confidence boost or a dose of reality that it can't

happen twice

3 things to DISLIKE

Not a good offensive team. 174th or worse

in all facets of shooting

In a freefall, lost 6 of their last 8. Fran

McCaffery is a psychopath. Not sure

if that's a dislike or like

Yea they just beat Gonzaga but they

also lost to them by 14 and 48. Yes, 48

points. Pepperdine & Harvard their bad

losses

The Pac 12 is a complete joke.

Outside of a win against Syracuse back in November, Ducks

best W is against Washington

Haven't played a soul since 12/21 when they lost to Butler

216th in OE, 302nd in OEFG, shoot 44.5%

from 2 (340th in the NCAA)

Turn it over a ton - 19.3% of possessions- 232nd in the country

THEY

Lost to West Virginia twice

Poor defensive team. 115th in DE, 209th in defensive EFG, 298th

against 2 pointers

185th in the country in turnover margin

Play extremely slow (328 in tempo) and

aren't a very efficient offense (108 OE0. Tough for them to

claw back in a large deficit

125th in OE 66% from the FT line, 324th overall

Below average to bad defensive

efficency of 202nd in the country

PLAY

219th in the country in PPG at 71.2.

Oklahoma State the only offense worse

than OU in the Big 12

Hasn't been to the Sweet 16 in 20 years

Outside of just beating Gonzaga in their championship,

next best win is against New Mexico State back on 11/14

251st in the country in scoring

Shoot 36th % from 3 (95th in country), and 50.3% from 2 (181st)

in country. Lastly- just 70% as a team

from the line

310th in the country in scoring, 66.8 PPG. Going to be tough to hang with any teams

that score the ball efficiently

1st NCAA Tourney appearance for

coach, and every player

VIRGINIA


GONZAGA MICHIGAN TEXAS TECH FLORIDA ST. MARQUETTE BUFFALO NEVADA SYRACUSE

W-L 30-3 28-6 26-6 27-7 24-9 31-3 29-4 20-13

W-L Top 25 1-2 3-3 3-4 6-4 4-1 0-0 0-0 2-7

W-L 26-50 3-1 6-2 7-1 5-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-2

W-L 51-100 9-0 10-0 6-0 3-0 10-7 3-0 7-0 4-3

W-L Last 10 GAMES 9-1 6-4 9-1 8-2 5-5 10-0 7-3 4-6


Conference WCC B10 B12 ACC BE MAC MWC ACC

Conf Record (Place) 17-1 17-5 14-5 15-6 13-7 19-2 16-4 11-9

Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO NO YES NO NO

Ken Pom Rank 2 5 9 14 27 22 25 35

RPI 7 11 17 12 30 9 19 38

SOS 56 40 54 13 38 79 111 8

Off Efficiency 1 18 36 31 23 19 26 61

Def Efficiency 16 2 1 9 35 29 33 24

Ken Pom Raw

Off 125.1 115.5 112.7 113 114.2 114.9 114 110.2

Def 92.3 86.1 85.9 90.4 95.7 94.6 95.1 93.9

TEMPO 70 320 226 135 116 9 88 251

Team: FG % 53.2% 45.0% 47.2% 44.3% 45.9% 46.0% 46.6% 42.4%

EFG % Offense 1 111 54 169 46 63 45 236

EFG % Defense 8 7 2 33 16 32 41 37



FT % 91 311 171 80 93 207 20 73

3pt fg % 36.5% 35.0% 36.8% 33.6% 39.3% 33.6% 35.1% 33.0%

3 POINT RATE 35.3% 40.2% 35.5% 38.3% 41.7% 43.9% 42.7% 42.8%

PPG 88.8 70.4 73.1 74.9 77.7 84.8 80.7 69.7

Opp PPG 65.1 58.6 59.3 67.1 69.1 71 66.7 65.7

Rebounding Margin per game 6.1 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.3 3.6 2.4 -2.3

Coaches Prev NCAA App 19 12 2 9 1 2 2 33FF Trips 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 5City,State of Campus Spokane, WA Ann Arbor, MI Lubbock, TX Tallahasse, FL Milwaukee, WI Buffalo, NY Reno, NV Syracuse, NYDistance to 64/32 719 miles 558 miles 453 miles 1203 miles 1440 miles 1136 miles 1716 miles 2061 milesDistance to 16/8 1,224 miles 2236 miles 1100 miles 2,240 miles 2,052 miles 2529 miles 489 miles 2,674 milesDistance to Final Four 1,381 miles 648 miles 1,134 miles 1,377 miles 337 miles 941 miles 1,746 miles 1,086 miles

ATS Record 21-12 19-15 15-16-1 16-17-1 19-14 18-14- 1 17-14- 1 19-14Conference ATS Record 10-8 15-8 10-8- 1 11-10 11-9 10-11 10-10 13-7O/U record 16-17 13-20 15-16 14-18- 2 12-18- 2 16-16 13-19 14-19

9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED 16 SEED

Baylor Florida Arizona State St.John's Murray State Vermont Northern KY Montana FDU P.VIEW

3 things to like

28th in OE. Scott Drew has done a great job with the hand he has been dealt this season

Force a ton of TO's, 16th in the country

Luguentz Dort is a special player. Pac 12 freshman of the year. Averaged 16.1 PPG,

raw talent

High percentages of blocks and steals, 11th in blocks and 16th in steals, 44th

overall in turnover % defensively

Ja Morant. If you don't know his name, you will right away.

Top 5 draft pick averaging 24.6 points

and 10 assists per game

Anthony Lamb is good, averages over 21 PPG. Can lead this team. Ernie Duncan shoots 42.5% from 3

Shoot the ball at a high clip, 23rd in EFG,

78th from 3, and 23rd from 2

Take really good shots. 6th in the

country in effective FG %, shoot 38.1%

from 3 (27th in country), 56.3% from

2pt (13th)

Have some athletic, and jacked big guys - speciifcally Halloway

and Williams

Can get a lot of steals (14 in the country)

Have 7 wins against Top 50 teams (according to

Kenpom)

14th in DE, get after it on the defensive

end

Bobby Hurley knows how to motivate

Shamorie Ponds can take over a game at any point. Will go as far as he takes them. Also, first in the Big

East in steals and second in assists

Good effencies on offense and defense, 40th in OE & 78th in DE. Top 5 2 point O

and Top 4 3pt D

75.3% from the stripe

Defend the 3 point line well, allow teams to shoot 31.9% from

3, 49th overall

Made Tourney last year, and have a

lineup of 2 seniors and 2 juniors

Shoot 40.5% from 3

Play at a fast tempo , can make the game wacky and run and

gun make Zaga uncomfortable

Number 2 offensive rebounding team in

the country

Have beaten LSU twice this season,

have shown they can play with big competiiton

50th overall on the offensive glass

Don't turn the ball over, 6th in the

nation in TO % on offense

24th in the country in Effective FG % on offense, 21st on defense. 2 big

schools they played in Bama & Auburn were close games

4.3 rebounding margin, 51st in the country. Especially

good on the defensive boards,

2nd in the land

Drew McDonald, 6'8" and can stretch the floor. Shoots 40%

from 3 and averages 19 PPG

Balanced scoring attack - Rorie and Pridgett - 15 ppg , Oguine - 13 ppg, Manuel - 8 ppg

Could win their play in game and get to spend a few days in

Sunny California

Maybe Gonzaga will get sick and not show

up

3 things to DISLIKE

Been hampered with injuries all year,

Makai Mason & King McClure have been banged up recently

Hate their draw with Nevada. Total

opposite styles of play, Florida plays to a crawl and Nevada

runs

Their opponents in the Pac 12 shot 48%

against them and the Pac 12 is PUTRID

They are HORRIBLE on the glass. 342nd

on the offensive boards, 246th

defensively. -5.8 rebounding margin

Best win of the year is them beating Belmont (53rd overall team according to

Kenpom) in the OVC championship game.

No signature win. Best W is against

Northeastern

Have played 2 top 50 teams this year, lost both. Best W's are

against Wright State

1 win in the Top 100. Their first round

matchup will be the best team they play

by miles

Coach is a mental patient. Got a tech in the conference title

game

Started the year 1-11 and didn't exactly

play primetime opponents

Reeling of late, lost 4 in a row, including a home loss to OKST

Don't shoot the ball well from the field, 211th in EFG, 222nd

in 3 point % and 200th from 2

67.1 % from the free throw line

111th in DE

Don't shoot a ton of 3's. If they get down

big early, tough sledding on a

comeback. 28.3% of their total points

come from 3, 264th in the land

Do not defend the 3 point line well, 226th

in the country

67% from the FT line, 302nd in America

Jamar Akoh (15 ppg and 9 rpg ) Senior - been out since 2/9 .

They are playing great, but will miss him in 1st round for

sure

In this play in game for a reason. NEC

historically a bottom feeder 16 seed.

struggle from 3

178th in the country in scoring - only 71

PPG

Shoot a ton of 3's ... 43.4 % of all attempts are from 3 (3pt rate). Yet they don't shoot it well - 33% (222nd

in the country)

Lost by 21 to Washington State

who is ranked 210th according to Kenpom

Sleep walk through a lot of games. Lost to Depaul twice, Xavier

twice, Providence twice, and

Gerogetown

If Morant is off, they are dead in the water

Florida State's D will be a real problem for

them

Have a few bad L's: Eastern KY, Oakland, IUPUI, Ill-Chi. & Clev.

State

Teams seem get to the line fairly easy on them. Will be a huge

problem vs faster gaurds, and bigger

post players

GONZAGA too talented , too good

.... Blowout

GONZAGA too talented , too good

.... Blowout


NORTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY HOUSTON KANSAS AUBURN IOWA ST. WOFFORD UTAH ST.

W-L 27-6 27-6 31-3 25-9 26-9 23-11 29-4 28-6

W-L Top 25 8-5 8-4 3-0 6-5 2-5 5-3 0-3 1-2

W-L 26-50 4-1 3-0 4-1 8-2 4-3 5-4 2-1 1-0

W-L 51-100 3-0 6-2 13-1 5-1 10-1 3-3 7-0 4-3

W-L Last 10 GAMES 8-2 7-3 8-2 7-3 10-0 5-5 10-0 10-0


Conference ACC SEC Amer B12 SEC B12 SC MWC

Conf Record 17-3 16-4 18-2 14-7 14-7 12-9 21-0 18-3

Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO YES YES YES YES

Ken Pom Rank 6 7 15 20 13 16 19 34

RPI 4 8 5 2 21 32 20 28

SOS 3 9 53 1 27 16 105 100

Off Efficiency 7 13 24 34 8 9 12 32

Def Efficiency 10 12 13 15 45 59 63 47

Ken Pom Raw

Off 119.9 118.2 114.1 112.7 119.6 119 118.4 113

Def 90.7 90.8 91.7 92 96.2 97.1 97.6 96.3

TEMPO 5 265 247 64 166 161 275 151

Team: FG % 46.4% 47.8% 44.4% 46.2% 44.7% 47.7% 48.8% 47.5%

EFG % Offense 78 65 107 100 42 25 4 41

EFG % Defense 63 27 1 46 220 74 153 19



FT % 242 9 216 189 240 257 303 77

3pt fg % 36.5% 36.4% 35.9% 35.0% 38.1% 36.5% 41.6% 35.7%

3 POINT RATE 35.9% 29.8% 42.9% 35.0% 49.6% 39.6% 43.5% 38.0%

PPG 86.1 76.7 75.6 75.4 78.9 77.4 81.2 79.1

Opp PPG 72.9 65.4 61.2 70.1 68.6 68.3 67.5 67.1

Rebounding Margin per game 9.7 8.9 7.3 2.4 -1.3 0.7 5.2 8.9

Coaches Prev NCAA App 28 17 ( 2 others vacated) 15 20 9 3 4 0FF Trips 9 4 ( 2 others vacated) 1 3 0 0 0 0

City,State of Campus Chapel Hill, NC Lexington, KY Houston, TX Lawrence, KS Auburn, AL Ames, IA Spartanburg, SC Logan, UT


Distance to 16/8 1,044 miles 584 miles 744 miles 42 miles 854 miles 228 miles 905 miles 1,106 milesDistance to Final Four 1,197 miles 784 miles 1,177 miles 475 miles 1,182 miles 214 miles 1,124 miles 1,204 miles

ATS record 21-9-3 17-16 21-12-1 15-18-1 20-13-1 18-14-2 19-11 18-15

Conference ATS Record 14-6 10-10 13-8 9-11- 1 14-8 11-10 15-6 10-11

O/U record 15-18 12-21 14-19-1 21-12-1 18-16 17-16 16-14 17-16


Washington Seton Hall Ohio State New Mexico St. Northeastern Georgia State AB Christian Iona

3 things to like

Matisse Thybulle is their anchor, DPOY in the Pac 12. When he

was on the floor, Washington forced turnovers on 25% of

their opponents possesions

Myles Powell is a horse, averages 22.9 PPG. Can take over at

any point

Kaleb Wesson is what makes Ohio State go. He was

suspended for the last 3 games of the regular season and

you guessed it, they went 0-3

Overall a very efficient offense. 37 in OE, number 2 in

the country shooting the ball inside the arc

at 56.6%

Hot at the right time - since Jan 1st- are 16-3. Bonus - 47TH best Offensive Efficency in

the country

Ron Hunter... if he can stay on his chair

has already pulled off an upset once

before.

Have God on their side... can't

downplay that. Especially against a

cheater like Calipari. "Thou shalt not steal "- Commandment # 8

Tim Cluess is one of the underrated coaches in the

country. May be looking at a bigger

job soon enough

20th in DE, 34th in defensinve EFG and 4th in the country in defensive turnover %

Seton Hall has been one of the best

teams in the country of late. Yes, they are

7-5 in their last 12 but those 5 losses have come by an

average of 3.8 PPG

Chris Holtmann is a fantastic coach.

Always has his teams ready to play

Have won 19 games in a row, haven't lost

since 1/3. Auburn can't defend the 3,

NMST shoots a ton of them (see below)

Want good shots ? They got em -

Efefctive FG% - 5th in country, shoot 38.8% from 3 (14th), 2pt - 56.4% (11th), and

shoot 75.1% from the Free Throw Line

Not afraid of a challenge. Won vs Alabama this year. Has played Liberty, Montana, K State,

Creighton, and Georgia

Cause a ton of turnovers as a

defense. 23.4 % of possessions (8th best

in the country)

Shoot at high %'s. PLAY VERY FAST . Tempo of 46th in

country. May cause matchup problems

Battled with Gonzaga, VT &

Minnesota earlier in the season. Their

defense gives them a legit shot to get to

the Sweet 16

They're disruptive defensively and may

be able to get Wofford out of their

game in the first round

Strong on the defensive end, 27th in DE, 58th in DEFG

Number 5 in the country in

rebounding margin at +9. Extremely deep, well balanced team. #1 in the country in

bench minutes

Balanaced scoring lineup - Puscia 17.8, Roland-14.7, Brace-10. Gresham- 9.8. BONUS- Here are what these guys

shoot from 3- Puscia- 40.1 %, Roland-

40.8%, Brace- 41/5% , and Gresham- 39.3%

Houston wants to play slow (267th in tempo) . G'St wants to play fast ( 67th).

They can either- dictate tempo, or in a short game use their 38.1% from 3 to stun

the Cougs

Shoot 38.3% from 3. Cheating Calipari has

said on ESPN he's concerned about it

4 straight NCAA Tournaments. Kids

understand the showcase , timing

etc. Can score a ton of points. Of all 14-

15-16's this is one to consider

3 things to DISLIKE

Resume sucks. Best win is against Oregon who they just let get in the tourney via the

Pac 12 Title game

Not an efficient offensive team.

210th in EFG, 32.4 from 3 point range

which is 272nd in the country

One dimensional offense with Wesson.

If he is not right, watch out for a

torching

Shoot a ton of 3's, 20th in the country in 3 point attempts but they shoot at a 34.1%

clip which is 189th overall

Teams get good shots against them - allow

52.1% from 2pt

Horrific on both ends of the floor

rebounding - grab just 23.3% of

rebounds (316th), and allow opppsing teams to grab 33.6%

of rebounds

Kentucky too big, too fast, too athletic

Give up a ton of points

Have I mentioned that the Pac 12 is pile of garbage? 119th in OE, turn the ball over

a ton, terrible rebounding team

defensively

Not a deep team at all. 310th in bench

minutes. Foul trouble and a long Big East

run could have them gassed

267th in the NCAA in PPG, averaging 69.3

67.3 from the FT line, 293rd overall

Horrific at getting offensive rebounds

-328th in the country

Shoot just 65.6 % from the Free Throw

Line

6'9 Frosh Jalone Friday has been out

for over a month, via suspension. Was

averaging 13 and 5.

Fast tempo leads to opposition layup drill

Utah State will be a tough matchup and a

great first round game. Not the best

draw for the Huskies

It's been a while since the Pirates

have made it out of the first weekend.

The Buckeyes were 0-9 against the Top 5 teams in the Big Ten

Best win is probably Utah Valley

Don't block any shots

Size troubles... every key contributor on

possession stats according to KenPom

is 6'6 (1 guy) and under

Played Texas Tech and lost 82-48 earlier

this year.

Likely a 16 seed, likely the play in

game. Huge task to pull the upset after

having already played a game.

CIRCLE OF TRUST

2019 NCAA WORD DOC SHEET

KENPOM EFF. TO PREDICT FINAL 4, and ELITE 8

Ken Pomeroy, or as I call him “God,” is a stats guru. He’s devoted 15 years to advanced stats, most notably adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. There was a writer by the name of Luke Winn (formerly of Sports Illustrated) who turned me on to how teams with BOTH high Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies result in tournament success. Now notice how I said both. Balanced teams seem to do well. The math is pretty simple - Teams with Top 25 Adj. Offensive Eff. AND Top 25 Adjusted Defensive Eff., = Final 4 / Title Contenders Teams with Top 40 Adj. Offensive Eff AND Top 40 Adj. Defensive Eff. = Elite 8 / Final 4 type teams Teams with Top 75 Adj Offensive Eff AND Top 75 Adj. Defensive Eff = Sweet 16 / & in rare cases - Elite 8/ Final 4 Here are teams with both TOP 25 OE and DE (OE/DE) : Virginia (2,5) Zaga (1,16), Duke (6,6), Michigan State (4,8) Michigan (18,2), UNC (7,10), Kentucky (13,12) VT (11,25), Houston (24,13)

Here are teams with both Top 40 OE and DE (OE/DE) : Tennessee (3,34), Purdue (5,32), Buffalo (19,29), Marquette (23,35), Nevada (26,33), Maryland (27,22), L/Ville (29,17), FSU (31,9), Kansas (34,15), Texas Tech (36,1) Teams with Both Top 75 OE and DE : Cincy, Wisconsin, Minnesota, UCF, Florida, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Ohio State

NFW LIST

Now, just as we discussed teams who excel on both sides of the floor, I have devoted time to find teams who don’t have an exceptional offense OR an exceptional defense.

In the tournament, teams can use 1 thing to ride a hot wave- think Shaka Smart’s great Defense, or Kevin Pittsnogle’s great offense back in the day. These teams do neither. They are so-so on both sides of the ball, which leaves them susceptible to upsets in the Big Dance. Since 2003, 194 Teams seeded 1-9 with : -an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency BELOW 115.0 AND -an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ABOVE 90.0 Have made the tournament. As you can see about 85% of those teams have exited in the first weekend, and a total of 3 have made the Final Four. I call this the NFW LIst because if a team appears on here, there’s “no freaking way” they make the Final Four. *** I’m adjusting the list this year to BELOW 115.0 AND ABOVE 92.0 *** I am primarily doing this after noticing that very few teams in the country are below 90.0 in raw Defensive Efficiency. In fact 92.0 still gets you at the 15th best defense in the country. For example- Houston is an elite team having the 24th best offense and 13th best defense in the country but under the old rule would be an NFW team. Same goes for Florida State . Now - I am very leery of Houston and Florida State because they fit the old profile of below 115, above 90- but because they rank high I’ve decided to adjust the list to BELOW 115.0 AND ABOVE 92.0 This Year’s list includes : 6- Buffalo, 5- Marquette, 7- Nevada, 6- Maryland, 9-Baylor, 7- L’Ville 8- Utah St , 8-Ole Miss, 4- Kansas, 7- Cincy, 9-UCF, 8- Cuse, 9-OK

Again, not a perfect science, but there’s huge value in fading these teams in the tourney- both spread and Money Line.

RED FLAG TEAMS

Now, we’ve talked about teams who do things well, who do things mediocre. Let’s talk about teams seeded 1-9 who have 1 glaring red flag in their efficiency.- ie either and OE or a DE outside of 75. Again, this can be very dangerous- because the #1 rated offense in the country may be so hot it overcomes it’s crappy 89th ranked defense. The same way the 3rd best D in the country can lock up for 6 straight games and win ugly games to capture a title. But, evidence shows you need to be balanced to succeed, rather than rely on just 1 side of the ball. Look at the matchups of these teams and see if their style of play can expose the red flag teams weaknesses. Here they are : Kansas State (102nd OE), VCU (172th OE), Washington (119th OE)

LIVE BY THE 3, DIE BY THE 3

From 2001- 2015 , just 2 teams have made the Final 4 with a 3pt rate higher than 40%.

3pt rate = total 3pt fg attempts / total fg attempts Then is 2016, half the Final Four was heavily reliant 3pt teams with a 3pt rate over 40% - Oklahoma and of course Villanova. Last year 3 of the teams in the Final Four (all but Loyola) were above 40% on their three point rate. So the total is now 7 teams out of 72 teams (9.72%) have had a 3pt rate above 40%, however the teams in 2016-2018 was 5 which is 41.6%. I think this should be called the “Steph Effect”. Meaning he’s changed the game like no other player. Everyone is shooting more 3’s. I saw a graphic earlier this year that nearly half the country is now above 40% 3pt rate. I’ve learned that this 3pt rate stat is not as much of a lock as it used to be, however it’s still worth looking at. It’s also good to note a team that shoots a ton of three’s and doesn’t shoot them well (ie- their 3pt percentage). Here are high seeded teams (1-6) currently above 40% 3pt rate (3pt fga / total fga) , and their accuracy from deep : 2 - Michigan - 40% 3pt rate , shoot 35.1% from 3pt (133rd in country) 3- Houston- 42.6% 3pt rate , shoot 36.4% from 3pt (tie 77th) 3- Purdue - 44.5% 3pt rate, shoot 36.4% from 3pt (tie 77th) 4- VA Tech - 45% 3pt rate, shoot 39.4% from 3pt (8th in country)

4- Marquette- 41.7% 3pt rate, shoot 39.3% from 3pt (9th in country) 5-Auburn- 49.2% 3pt rate, shoot 38.1% from 3pt (27th in country) 6-Villanova- 53.5% 3pt rate, shoot 35.3% from 3pt ( 121st in country) 6- Buffalo- 43.9% 3pt rate, shoot 33.6 % from 3pt (215th in country)

Who’s Got Balls ? There’s a few mysterious characters who are Rico Ryders who pop out every now and then like clockwork. I laugh every time how this group is a mix between the soldiers in BraveHeart, and the mutants at Table 9. But regardless, I respect how dedicated everyone is to the craft. None more than the famous “BALL KID” who came to me a few years back talking about his trends of different ball brands affecting scoring etc. FYI- The NCAA Tourney uses Wilson Balls during all games. His handle is : https://twitter.com/KevinCarmosino He recently sent me this : Rico, I am going to be tied up with work/travel the next couple weeks so I got a head of things and compiled a quick excel sheet for you. It has the win/loss ATS and Over/under records broken down by ball. Last year was an off year – I attribute that to some bad matchups and expect it to be back to the norm this year. I also took the BPI rankings from like a week ago and other teams I think have a shot at making the tournament and looked up what they use for home games. The games I played over the past three years are all teams that use the Wilson ball and the over for those games. Even with last year’s disaster those are hitting a combined 55%. A bunch of mid majors use the ball this year like Hofstra, Houston, SD State, Murray State and even our boys down at Lipscomb – could see some beneficial lines for the first round. I will get a break down after the bracket comes out but thought I would get this over to you now. Cheers,

https://twitter.com/KevinCarmosino

As he mentioned- The big trend to look at is Wilson Overs, or Wilson teams pulling outright upsets per his research. Good to consider while examining your brackets and bets. * - The Over Trend applies to any team who uses a Wilson ball during the year- *

Here’s which kind of ball tournament team’s play with during the regular season. He got as many as he could, will be updating me as they come in. To get any inside info on any team you have questions on - hit up Ball Kid on twitter. But for now- Here’s teams who use Wilson balls during the year he’s sent me : Arizona State, Auburn, Belmont, Cincy, Houston, Kansas, Miss. St, Murray State, St.Mary’s, St.John’s, Temple, Wisconsin, Wofford, UC Irvine.

Lastly- two matchups involving 2 Wilson teams to keep an eye on are both play-in games : Arizona State vs St.John’s , Belmont vs Temple

DELAYED START TIMES Another wild character/Rico Ryder came to me with this fun little tidbit that almost seems so obvious when you think about it. My man Anthony of the M&A Sports Podcast (https://twitter.com/masportsradio) , who’s such a great guy he’s hosting a golf tourney for Coaches vs Cancer 6/29, Came to me recently and said he thought about this trend two years ago and started tracking it last year.

● Games in the 1st and 2nd round that were delayed 15+ minutes. ● The Unders in the 1st half and Game of those games was : 16-4

● Of those games, 7 games were complete sweeps (ie both 1h and

game hit the under)

● Overall - all 2nd games of double headers regardless of start time were 27-21 when betting 1h and game unders.

Give the guy Anthony a follow and a DM thank you when these cash.

https://twitter.com/masportsradio

TEMPO MATCHUPS

Really dove into this last year , and the screenshots are buried somewhere, but really all you have to know is pace of play can affect the hell out of games, and can result in upsets. Last year I nailed Marshall over Wichita State because the Herd wanted to run, and The Shockers wanted to slow it down. The Herd dictated the pace and it was the difference. So I wanted to examine it again this year with three thoughts in mind :

● Which games are the fastest tempos ? (good idea on overs) ● Which games are the slowest tempo ? (good idea on unders) ● Which games have the biggest disparity one way or the other ?

( good idea to spot upsets) Here are those answers : Fastest tempos :

● UNC (5) vs Iona (45) ● Buffalo (9) vs Zona St (46) or St.John’s (48) ● LSU (66) vs Yale (44) ● Ole Miss (129) vs Oklahoma (112) ● Marquette (116) vs Murray State ( 98)

Slowest tempos :

● Wisconsin (332) vs Oregon (328) ● Nova (333) vs St.Mary’s (347) ● K’State (342) vs UCI (296) ● Syracuse (251) vs Baylor (291) ● Michigan (320) vs Montana (225)

● Kentucky (265) vs AB Christian (254) Biggest Difference in Styles of Play :

● Duke (18) vs ND State (312) ● Maryland (274) vs Belmont (31) ● Nevada (88) vs Florida (346) ● Cincy (338) vs Iowa (82) ● Kansas (64) vs N’Eastern (252) ● Houston (247) vs Georgia St (67) ● Wofford (275) vs Seton Hall (102)

-Rico Bo$co

MLP (Money Line Parlays)

I went through and looked at key efficiency numbers for Final Four teams through the last 10 years. The red line represents the average of each number for the last decade. Obviously, the teams listed are from this year’s field. All numbers were taken from the king, Ken Pomeroy. The “weight” number is based on my own research and the higher the number, the more this stat is correlated to success in the tournament. Only teams seeded 1-11 were included. We start with... Stat: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency 10 Year Avg: 117.0 Weight: 9.01 Teams Above Avg: Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, North Carolina, Auburn, Iowa State, LSU, Virginia Tech, Wofford, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Iowa, Villanova

Stat: Offensive Effective Field Goal Percentage 10 Year Avg: 52.5% Weight: 5.72 Teams Above Avg: Gonzaga, Wofford, Belmont, Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Utah State, Marquette, Nevada, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Duke, Villanova, Buffalo, Kentucky, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Purdue, UCF, Iowa

Stat: Offensive Three-Point Percentage 10 Year Avg: 36.1% Weight: 5.71 Teams Above Avg: Wofford, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Michigan State, Auburn, Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Belmont, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Iowa State, North Carolina, Kentucky, Purdue, Tennessee, Iowa, St. John’s

Stat: Offensive Rebound Percentage 10 Year Avg: 34.0% Weight: 3.01 Teams Above Avg: Baylor, Cincinnati, LSU, Kentucky, Duke, Purdue, Mississippi State, Houston, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

Stat: Offensive Turnover Percentage 10 Year Avg: 17.3% Weight: 5.76 Teams Below Avg: Michigan, St. John’s, Nevada, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Virginia, Belmont, Buffalo, Temple, Purdue, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wofford, Iowa State, St. Mary’s, Houston, Villanova, North Carolina, Iowa

Stat: Adjusted Defensive Efficiency 10 Year Avg: 91.4 Weight: 7.49 Teams Below Avg: Michigan, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Virginia, Duke, VCU, Michigan State, Florida State, North Carolina, Kentucky

Stat: Defensive Possession Length 10 Year Avg: 18.4 Weight: 3.31 Teams Above Avg: Gonzaga, Florida, Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Washington, Auburn, Michigan, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Iowa State

Stat: Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage 10 Year Avg: 46.0% Weight: 6.14 Teams Below Avg: Houston, Texas Tech, VCU, Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin, UCF, Marquette, Maryland

Stat: Defensive Three-Point Percentage 10 Year Avg: 32.2% Weight: 3.30 Teams Below Avg: Virginia, VCU, Houston, Michigan, Duke, Buffalo, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State, UCF, Louisville, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Marquette, Maryland, Florida, Syracuse

Stat: Block Percentage 10 Year Avg: 11.6% Weight: 4.35 Teams Above Avg: Syracuse, Duke, Washington, Auburn, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Michigan State, Baylor, Houston, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Maryland, Purdue, Iowa State, Florida State, UCF, Utah State, Virginia, VCU, LSU

Stat: Steal Percentage 10 Year Avg: 10.1% Weight: 4.66 Teams Above Avg: Washington, Auburn, Duke, LSU, Syracuse, Temple, St. John’s, Mississippi State, Kansas State, VCU, Florida, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Iowa State

Here’s the final tally. Each column is worth its weight. It’s nothing incredibly groundbreaking, but there are a few teams that may seem out of place. Obviously Iowa State is near the top, which doesn’t really fall in line with the 6 seed they were pegged with. I took them at 66-1 back in early February mainly based on some of these numbers. That looked like a waste of money for a few weeks, but then they go and win the Big 12 Tournament. Probably the other most notable thing is Kansas putting up a goose egg. The Jayhawks may not make it out of the first round.

TSI Spread Investor Lines that stand out in the opening round: Oregon -1.5 vs Wisconsin: Oregon is on an 8-0 SU and ATS run and they’ve made an amazing comeback to get themselves into the tournament. Wisconsin is very reliant on Happ for scoring and Oregon has the length to defend Happ. Plus this game is in San Jose, which gives Oregon a major travel advantage. Cincinnati -3.5 vs Iowa in Columbus. Cincinnati is off a huge win vs Houston and Cumberland can take over a game. Iowa’s defense is terrible and they haven’t played well down the stretch. St. Mary’s +5.5 vs Villanova, 130. St. Mary’s just beat Gonzaga and held them to 47 points. Gonzaga beat Duke. Villanova didn’t cover their last 2 games in the Big East tournament against Seton Hall and Xavier, and they’re on a 3-6 ATS run. St. Mary’s also lost to LSU by just 4. This team is dangerous and they really defend and slow you down. New Mexico St is +7 vs Auburn. A lot of people are going to jump on Auburn because of their run in the SEC tournament but this was their first SEC championship since 1985 and it was a very emotional win. If they don’t come out with the same energy New Mexico St can really threaten them. They’re on a 19 game win streak, lost to Kansas earlier this year by 3, they have size, depth and really defend well. They’re 8th in the country in offensive efficiency and 1st in offensive rebounding. Auburn has to travel 1800 miles to Salt Lake City for this game that starts at 1:20 Thursday. Arizona St -1.5 should beat St. John’s in the first four. Arizona St. has been a much more consistent team than St. John’s and the Johnnies are coming off getting blown out vs Marquette in the Big East tournament. Utah St -2.5 vs Washington. Washington just lost to Oregon and Utah St plays really good defense and has a lot of size. They beat Nevada two weeks ago and beat San Diego St twice this year, who also beat Nevada. They beat St. Mary’s this year by 17 and lost to Houston by 10. They’re a great passing team and their PG Sam Merrill is a playmaker and averages 21.2 ppg. Belmont can make a run. They’re the number 1 team in the country in assists and have scored 83 points or more in 6 of their last 7. They’re -3 vs Temple, would play Maryland if they win who is struggling, and would get the winner of Yale and LSU who is without their head coach. Belmont beat Murray St 92-74 on 1/19 and lost at Purdue by 11.

Old Dominion +13 vs Purdue - they play really good defense and are on a 9-1 Under run. They held their last 3 opponents to 57 ppg and they beat VCU earlier this year 62-52. Head Coach Jeff Jones is battling prostate cancer and you could never underestimate the power of a team riding the emotional wave of their coach. Yale +8 vs LSU - Yale is a really good passing team and shoots the ball well. Naz Reid can take over later in this game but he usually doesn’t take over games until the second half. LSU will be without their head coach. Notes: UC Irvine is on a 9-1-1 ATS run their last 11. Liberty shoots the three really well but don’t have any wins against top 50 competition this season. Nevada is 1-7 ATS their last 8 and Florida is 7-3 ATS their last 10. Nevada has been a bad first half team and good second half team lately and betting this game live might be the better move. Wofford is on an 11-1 ATS run. Fletcher McGee is an unbelievable scorer and they have a big man in Cam Jackson who can really play. They have a lot of good guards. They lay -2.5 vs Seton Hall who has played really well lately also and have one of the best players in the country in Myles Powell. This is likely a game I’m passing that I’ll just enjoy the entertainment. Murray State is on a 7-3 ATS run Northeastern is on a 6-0-1 ATS run but they don’t have any wins vs top 50 competition this season. Trends by seed: #8 vs #9: the dog in this game is 24-12-4 ATS the last 10 years #11 seeds are on a 25-15 ATS run in the first round over the last 10 years. Loyola Chicago and Syracuse were both 11 seeds last year. #14 seeds: 10-5 ATS the last 5 years when +12 or more

#12 seeds are on a 24-14-2 ATS run the last 10 years

QUESTION AND ANSWERS We’ve said it 100 times before we take a huge amount of pride in this sheet and providing info, always making it better etc. So rolling out a new feature this year is a quick Q and A portion based off the brackets. As always- feel free to reach out for any questions etc you may have. Here’s our handles and a key when looking at the answers : @return_of_rb Answer Key - RB @spreadinvestor - Answer Key - TSI @moneylineparlays - Answer Key - MLP @THold42 - Answer Key - HOLD Without further ado …. Here we go

● What’s your favorite opening spread at first glance ? RB- If your asking for a total - that’s easy - Iona UNC Over 166. The fact the Duke over vs Iona didn’t hit last year was a crime. This one gets me the redemption. Spread wise… how about Old Dominion catching 12 versus Purdue ? Purdue shoots a ton of three’s - which can alway be a problem. But these teams match up really well in terms of tempo - Purdue 276th, ODU 325. ODU plays great defense (48th D.Eff) and have a rebounding margin of +5 per game. - this number seems huge. TSI - St. Mary’s +5.5 vs Villanova

https://twitter.com/Return_Of_RB

https://twitter.com/spreadinvestor

https://twitter.com/MLParlays

https://twitter.com/THold42

MLP- I always gravitate towards the dogs in Round 1 and it’s hard to pick just one without much research. NMSU +7, Northeastern +8, Liberty +7, and Irvine +5.5 all seem like opportunities. Yale +7.5 also stands out with all of LSU’s problems right now. HOLD- UC Irvine +5.5. Irvine has the number 1 defense in the country when it comes to 2 pointers, only allowing teams to shoot 40.6% from inside the arc. Kansas State is 225th in the country shooting from 2. Overall, K State is not a great offensive team. 102nd in OE, 231st in Offensive EFG, 33.6% from 3 and a bismal 66.4% from the free throw line. K State is very good defensively as well but think we get a rock fight and Irvine hangs in all game.

● What’s your first round upset that makes the most sense ? RB- Seems too cliche to say Murray State now that every dweeb in an office knows about Ja Morant , but the Howard injury should worry Marquette backers. We answered these separately so I assume UC Irvine is taken. If they are - I love Belmont vs Maryland who’s remarkably mediocre. TSI - New Mexico St over Auburn because Auburn’s riding an emotional high and they have to travel 1800 miles to Utah for this game that starts early on Thursday. New Mexico is a really good team and can catch Auburn come out a little flat. MLP- Probably Northeastern. The Huskies have been on a tear for a while now, they’ve got a legit guy in Vasa Pusica, Kansas is kind of messy, and it’s just got that “late Thursday night” craziness feel to it. The Jayhawks finally have to travel and we’ll see if they have enough to handle it.

HOLD- I would have to say Liberty at first glance. Liberty shoots the 3 pointer at a high clip of 37.8%, good for 35th in the country. Miss. State can’t defend the 3 well, 224th in the country. Liberty shoots the ball well from all over the floor and MSST isn’t a team that overly impresses me.

● Which dark horse is your pick to win each region ? RB- Virginia Tech won/t be afraid of Duke , Buzz is a great coach- they make sense in the East. Nevada in the West just because I still say they are a matchup nightmare for people. Without crazy deep research I’ll go way deep on a dark horse here and say UC Irvine. In a bracket with either Wiscy or Oregon (both slow, then likely Virginia)- their D and slow play is exactly what teams will be playing against them right up until the regional final vs Tenn. Midwest- take your pick on Utah St, Wofford, or Seton Hall. TSI - New Mexico St, Belmont, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech. MLP- I’ll probably change my mind by Thursday after more research, but off the top I like Buffalo in the West, Iowa State in the Midwest, Cincinnati in the South, and Virginia Tech in the East. HOLD- Gun to my head right after the bracket release, Virginia Tech in the East, Marquette in the West (if Howard is fully healthy), Villanova in the South and Iowa State in the Midwest.

● Which team do you think the general public is too in love with ? RB- Is it crazy to say Duke ? And I’m a Duke fan. Now don’t get me wrong - I think they are fantastically talented. But I worry a lot about their shooting. Also in terms of value- they whole world will be picking them to win it all, makes sense to go contrarian on your brackets in the final four/ final game.

TSI - Liberty. They have no big wins this year and a lot of people are picking them to beat a talented Mississippi St team. MLP- I don’t really know who the public is in love with, but based on futures odds I guess Gonzaga? They’re only 5-1 to win it all. They’re a really good team, but people may point to that Duke win earlier this year as a reason to believe in them. It was a big win, but I felt like it was a game that they survived due to a young team’s inability to execute early in the season more than anything. They lost to Tennessee on a neutral on the West Coast and gave up a 103 burger to the Tar Heels. Otherwise they haven’t played great teams and lost the WCC title. My biggest concern with them is that they don’t really shoot it well. If they play other talented bigs that can limit Clarke and Rui, I don’t trust Perkins to carry them. HOLD- Michigan. Not sure if the public is in love with them but I would imagine so after they just got a 2 seed and had a good weekend in the Big 10 Tourney. Their path is very tough with the likes of Nevada/Florida, Buffalo and Texas Tech. Their offense can leave a lot to be desired at some points.

● Which team do you think is under the radar based off the public ? RB- Houston lost a heartbreaker to Michigan last year, have a coach with tourney experience, and some real playmakers. The Kentucky draw sucks for them, but I think they can raise eyebrows. Based on the draw - I think Texas Tech playing hellacious defense on people in a pod where they can disrupt Buffalo, then advance to a Michigan team who’s struggled scoring - I think that’s a good draw + most people won’t know too much about them. TSI - Texas Tech. They’re in Michigan’s region and Michigan will always get more attention. Tech has the defense to make a run.

MLP- Houston. They’re not from a prestigious conference and they just lost when everyone was paying attention. But they’ve beat LSU, Utah State, and Oregon, and they dominated the AAC. People won’t realize that the Cougars were pretty banged up in that championship game Sunday with Cincinnati. My only problem with them here is that they’re in the same pod as Iowa State and the Cyclones were probably my #2 choice here. HOLD- Tennessee at +1800 to win the title is appealing in my eyes. Yes, they just took a large dump in the SEC Title Game and also lost to Auburn on the road a little over a week ago (homerun spot for Auburn in that game). But they have one of the most efficient offenses in the country and their other 3 losses were Kentucky & LSU on the road and Kansas back in November in OT. Their draw isn’t daunting to me and can see them in the Elite 8 against UVA where you can start to hedge

1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed 5 seed 6 seed 7 seed ......1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed 5 seed 6 seed 7...

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