1 science and technology research institute for defence 1 operations research : an overview wong...

1SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 1

Operations Research : Operations Research :

An OverviewAn Overview

Wong Siew KwanResearch & Strategic Studies Branch

STRIDE July 2009

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 22SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 22

Scope

STRIDE – Organisation BriefingSTRIDE – Organisation Briefing

OR in STRIDEOR in STRIDE

History of OR History of OR

Some DefinitionsSome Definitions

Examples of OR applicationExamples of OR application

Methodology in OR AnalysisMethodology in OR Analysis

Success of a Military OR StudySuccess of a Military OR Study

Some OR Tools and TechniquesSome OR Tools and Techniques

Asia-Pacific Military Operations ResearchAsia-Pacific Military Operations Research

Symposium (AMORS)Symposium (AMORS)

July 2009

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 33

Tentative Programme

1100 – 1225Organisation Briefing, OR in STRIDE, History of OR, Some Definitions, Examples of OR Application

Break : 1225 - 1235

1235 – 1400Methodology in OR, Success in Military OR Study, Some Tools & Techniques, AMORS

July 2009


Historical Development of STRIDE

1968 Defence Technical Centre (DTC)

1972 Defence Research Centre (DRC)

- Commissioning of Main Laboratories in Kuala Lumpur

1985 Defence Science & Technology Centre (DSTC or PSTP)

- Establishment of Maritime Branch in TLDM Base, Lumut

1993 - Commissioning of Weapons Complex in Batu Arang (officially opened in 1995)

2002 Establishment of STRIDE as a Department under Ministry of Defence

- Launch of Construction of Main Complex in Kajang

2004 Starting operation at Kompleks Induk STRIDE, Kajang

2005 13 September – Launch of Kompleks Induk STRIDE by DPM

July 2009


STRIDE Corporate Statements

MissionMission

““ To nurture, develop and To nurture, develop and provide complete scientific provide complete scientific and technological capability and technological capability and expertise to the nationand expertise to the nation’’s s

defence sectordefence sector””

VisionVision

““To Excel in Defence To Excel in Defence TechnologyTechnology””

July 2009


STRIDE Core Values

SServing the client through

TTeamwork with

RResourcefulness,

IIntegrity and

DDiligence to achieve

EExcellence

July 2009


STRIDE’s Objectives

Provide science and technology information and advice in Provide science and technology information and advice in planning and execution of the national defence programmeplanning and execution of the national defence programme

Conduct scientific and technological support through R&D and Conduct scientific and technological support through R&D and evaluations in procurement and utilization of the nation’s defence evaluations in procurement and utilization of the nation’s defence materiel and systemsmateriel and systems

Prepare scientific and technological resources relevant to national Prepare scientific and technological resources relevant to national defence requirementsdefence requirements

Develop industrial relations with the intention of providing Develop industrial relations with the intention of providing scientific and technological assistance towards the development of scientific and technological assistance towards the development of a defence industrya defence industry

Develop technical links with external research organizations for Develop technical links with external research organizations for purposes of increasing defence scientific and technological purposes of increasing defence scientific and technological capabilitiescapabilities

July 2009


DIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERALDIRECTOR GENERAL

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR WEAPONS WEAPONS

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR MECHANICAL & MECHANICAL &

AEROSPACE AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR PROTECTION & PROTECTION & BIOLOGYCAL BIOLOGYCAL TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR INSTRUMENTATION INSTRUMENTATION

& ELECTRONICS & ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR MARITIME MARITIME

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

DIRECTOR DIRECTOR HUMAN RESOURCE & HUMAN RESOURCE & SUPPORT SERVICESSUPPORT SERVICES

Ordnance

Propulsion

Weapons

Ballistics

Weapons Technology

Support

Aeronautical

Automotive

Materials Technology

Mechanical & Structures

Engineering Support

Nutrition & Rations

Protection

Human Factors

Personnel Equipment

Science & Technology

Support

Communications

Radar & Laser

Sensors

Electronics Warfare

Instrumentations & Electronics

Support

Ship Technology

Underwater Technology

Maritime Weapons

Maritime Warfare

Maritime Support

Research & Strategic Studies

Information Management

Financial & Support Services

Human Resources Management

Organisation Structure

July 2009


Technical Activities

Approach Methodology

Novel

Conventional

Expertise

Average High

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

INVESTIGATION

TRIALS & ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL EVAL. & SPEC.

July 2009


STRIDE’s Involvement in Acquisition

SPECIFICATION

PRE-TENDER

TENDER

EQUIPMENT DELIVERY

FIELD DEPLOYMENT END OF LIFE

Technical Examination, Standards

Operations Research, Trials

Trials & Evaluations

Pre-Delivery Inspection

Modifications, Investigations, Life-Extension Assessment, R&D

STRIDESTRIDE

Needs, Operations Research, Technology Assessment

CONCEPT

July 2009


STRIDE’s Research Infrastructure

July 2009


STRIDE’s New Research Infrastructure

ADMINISTRATION BLOCK

INSTRUMENTATION & ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY

MECHANICAL & AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY

TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT LABORATORY

PROTECTION & BIOPHYSICAL TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY

July 2009


Main Complex & Temporary Office

July 2009


OR in STRIDE

Research and Strategic Studies Branch Formed in 2002 Strength in 2009

Position At present Study leave Total

Senior Officers 3 - 3

Officers 3 1

(PhD)

4

Assistant Officers 4 - 4

Total 10 1 11

July 2009


MISSION

To provide and consolidate effective decision support for strategic planning, operations research and systems effectiveness for MAF and Ministry of Defence

FUNCTIONS

To conduct strategic studies for Ministry of Defence and defence science and technology planning

To identify new concepts, analyse capability options, identify capability gaps and analyse

options to fill the gaps

To conduct quantitative analysis and construct simulation for model development To support defence acquisition and ‘Through Life Support’ in source selection studies

through cost analysis and cost effectiveness

To conduct operations research on force structuring, doctrine development, manpower and logistics planning

To support and advise in development, implementation and analysis of defence R&D projects

Research & Strategic Studies Branch

July 2009


OR Activities in STRIDE

Conduct research studies/projects - LCC project for Handalan Truck

- AHP for defence acquisition Assist in R&D projects

- Anthropometric Survey Other activities - development of OR Laboratory for Modeling,

Simulation & Analysis (Decision Support Centre)- provide support for LCC / ILS training (BLP

MATM) and also Staff College

July 2009


Other Technical Activities

Screening and endorsement of procurement specifications

Research & Development (R & D) Management

Offset and Transfer of Technology Programmes

Bilateral Cooperation in Defence Science & Technology

Malaysian Defence Cooperation Programme (MDCP)

July 2009


Some Terminology

Operations Research Operational Research Operational Analysis Management Science Decision Science Operations Management

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 1818July 2009


History of OR

Although scientists had been involved in the hardware side of warfare (designing better plane, bombs, tanks etc.), scientific analysis of the operational use of military resources had never taken place in a systematic fashion before the WW II. Military personnel were simply not trained to undertake such analysis.



History of OR

OR started just before WW II in Britain with the establishments of teams of scientists to study the strategic and tactical problems involved in military operations. The objective was to find the most effective utilisation of limited military resources by the use of quantitative techniques.



History of OR

In 1941, Prof. Blackett and his team

(1 physicist, 2 physiologists, 2 mathematical physicists and 1 surveyor) were asked by the British Government to advise on technical problems arising out of induction of new weapons and equipment.

Classical example - Depth setting for depth charge explosion to be dropped by aircraft against surfaced German submarines (U-boat).



History of OR

Initially the attacks based on explosion at a depth of 150 ft. were judged to be unsuccessful as not many submarines were reported sunk.

Using available data and simple analysis,

the depth setting was reduced from 150 ft. to 25 ft.

The average no. of submarines sunk for a given no. of attacks has increased by more than two times.



History of OR

After the war, OR introduced into industry

- Solve problems related to how to coordinate activities of organisation.

- Applied to a wide range of industries: manufacturing, transportation, finance, construction, telecommunication, health care, etc.



History of OR

Manufacturers used OR to make products more efficiently, schedule equipment maintenance and control inventory and distribution. And success in these areas led to expansion into strategic and financial planning.



History of OR

The growth of OR since it began, especially in the last 30 years, is to a large extent, the result of the increasing power and widespread availability of computers. Most OR involves carrying out a large number of numeric calculations. Without computers, this would simply not be possible.



What is OR?

“The science of better”

“The use of mathematical models, statistics and algorithms to aid in decision-making with the goal of improving or optimizing performance.”

“Research designed to determine the most efficient way to do something.”



What is OR?

“The application of scientific methods to improve the effectiveness of operations, decisions and management.”

“The discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions”



What is OR?

Operations Research (OR) is the field of how to form mathematical models of complex management decisions problems and how to analyse the models to gain insight about possible solutions.

- Institute of OR and MS (INFORMS)



What is Military OR?

Deals with operations different from those arising in economic & social activities (civil operations).

In civil sector, unusual for aircraft to fly at speed > 3 Mach and altitude of > 75,000 ft. , or a nuclear powered submarine carrying nuclear missiles lying below frozen ice, or air-to-air refueling, or aircraft taking-off from ships in open seas.

July 2009



Wars occurs rarely and has large uncertainties and complexities.

Analysis and planning of military operations more complicated and difficult than civilian operations.

Availability and reliability of war data pose another problem in analyzing.

July 2009



Objectives expressed in terms of casualties of men & material, loss of territory and mission achievement.

Effectiveness not measured in terms of cost (normal criteria in civil operations).

Application of OR to military sector poses unique modeling problems and raises issues pertaining to establishing relevant measures of effectiveness.

July 2009



Military OR may be defined as “a scientific method of providing

defence departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control”.

July 2009


Example – OR application

Trim Loss Problem: A company has to

manufacture the circular tops of cans. Two sizes,

one of diameter 10 cm and the other of 20 cm are

required. They are to be cut from metal sheets of

dimensions 20 cm X 50 cm.

The requirement of smaller size (size S) is 20,000

and of large size (size L) is 15,000. The problem is:

how to cut the tops from the metal sheets so that

the number of sheets used is a minimum.



A sheet can be cut into one of the following three patterns:

Pattern I

Pattern II

Pattern III

10

20

20

10

10

10

2010

3434SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCEJuly 2009



Pattern I : cut into 10 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm

so as to make 10 tops of size S.

Pattern II : cut into 2 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm

and 2 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make

2 tops of size L and 2 tops of size S.

Pattern III : cut into 1 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm

and 6 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make

1 top of size L and 6 tops of size S.




So assume that x1 sheets are cut according

to pattern I, x2 according to pattern II,

x3 according to pattern III.

The problem is to:

Minimize z = x1 + x2 + x3

Subject to 10 x1 + 2 x2 + 6 x3 ≥ 20,000 (size S)

2 x2 + x3 ≥ 15,000 (size L)

x1, x2, x3 ≥ 0, integers


objective function

constraints

decisionvariables

July 2009


Discussion – Trim Loss problem

- A decision problem.

- Formulate a mathematical model from a real-world situation.

- Some quantitative method (an algorithm) to numerically solve the model.

- Model has an objective, i.e. to optimize.

- Having obtained numerically solution of model, have to translate solution back into real-world situation.

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 37373737SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCEJuly 2009


The Operation Desert Storm Airlift

The problem:

- In 1991, the Military Air Command (MAC)

was charged with scheduling aircraft, crew, and

mission support resources to maximize the

on-time delivery of cargo and passengers to the

Persian Gulf.

- A typical airlift mission carrying troops and

cargo to the Gulf required a three-day round trip,

visiting 7 or more different airfields, burned almost

1 million pounds of fuel and cost $ 280,000.




Objectives and requirements:

- Create a scheduling system for aircraft

- Create a communication system coordinating the schedule among bases in the US and other countries.




The OR solution

- MAC worked with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop the Airlift Deployment Analysis System (ADANS).

- Within 3 months, ADANS provided a set of decision support tools to manage:

- Information on cargo and passengers

- Information on available resources

- ADANS also developed tools for:

- Scheduling missions

- Analysing the schedule

- Distributing the schedule to MAC worldwide C & C system




The value:

- By August 1991, more than 25,000 missions had moved nearly 1 million passengers (including 350,000 troops) and 800,000 tons of cargo to and from the Persian Gulf.



Methodology of OR

1. Problem identification

2. Formulation as a mathematical model

3. Data Collection & Model solution – develop computer based procedure for deriving solutions from the model

4. Model validation – test the model

5. Evaluation and implementation



Methodology of OR

Model – a simplified representation of real

world situation.

Types of models:

- physical model (e.g. wind tunnel model)

- graphical model (e.g. map or flow chart)

- symbolic model (e.g. equations or mathematical model – linear / non linearprogramming)



Methodology of OR

Model solution

Real world problem

Model

Real world solution

Algorithm

FormulationValidation

Implementation

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCEJuly 2009


Methodology of OR

1. Problem identification

- OR analyst holds discussion with the management to understand and appreciate the problem to be solved, identifies the objectives and generates the alternatives.

- also selects variables affecting problem, constraints imposed and determine measure of effectiveness.



Methodology of OR

2. Model Formulation

- model is an imitation of real situation.

- in OR analysis, ‘symbolic’ models are used which are in the form of mathematical equations and represent relationships between various ‘uncontrollable’ and ‘controllable’ variables. Aims at determining values of controllable variables so as to optimize measure of effectiveness.



Methodology of OR

3. Model solution

- once model has been formulated, relevant data are collected and the model is solved using some standard computer packages, or specially developed algorithms.



Methodology of OR

4. Model validation

- a model is a representation of real situation and model solution is expected to closely predict the behavior of real system. May like to know closeness of prediction.

- process of testing / improving model.



Methodology of OR

5. Evaluation & implementation

- once the model has been validated, the available alternatives are evaluated by determining their measure of effectiveness.

- then recommend the preferred alternatives in order of their suitability for meeting the defined goal.



Success of Military OR Study

Some factors should be kept in view while

organizing a military OR study:

(i) Composition of the Team

(ii) Data Availability

(iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst

and Decision Maker

(iv) Duration of the OR Study




(i) Composition of the Team

OR analysis requires a team of analysts from

different disciplines. Military officers from

concerned service should be associated with

the team to assist in problem formulation, data

collection, and model validation.

Also specialist with OR background and

software development experience are essential.




(ii) Data Availability

Military OR studies suffer due to non-availability

of required data. This affects model development

and validation. Military data, particularly from the

operations, are either not available or are

confidential, and may not be reliable.

Need to ensure availability and reliability of

required data.




(iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst

and Decision Maker

Enhancing mutual understanding between

analyst and decision maker is vital for

implementation of an OR study.

Develop communication plans to maintain

awareness of study progress and decision

maker are kept informed.




(iv) Duration of the OR Study

Military OR studies are time bound and

complex. The pressure from decision maker

on an OR analyst seems to be much more in

military sector than in other sectors.

Ensure timely responses to sponsors and

decision makers.



Some Tools and Techniques

1. Optimization

2. Simulation and War Games

3. Cost Effectiveness Analysis

4. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)



Optimization

The Resources allocation problems:

Weapon deployment problem

– to determine the no. of defence system to be deployed at each site to provide maximum overall protection against enemy attack, subject to constraints.

Airlift problem

- to determine the plan to airlift supplies to meet the logistics requirements in the forward areas subject to constraints on availability of aircraft, demand and environmental conditions.



Optimization

The Transportation problem:

- the objective is to identify how much material should be transported from each depot to each destination such that the cost of transportation is minimized.

The Assignment problem:

- The objective is to assign the jobs to various workers such that the total cost of execution of tasks is minimum.



Optimization

Linear Programming

- a technique applied in solving optimization problems in which the objective function and the constraints are linear functions.

- oldest OR tool, versatile



Simulation & War Games

Simulation is imitation of the operations of a real

world process or system over time. Requires a

large amount of data and the use of probability

and statistics.

OR and simulation modeling have been used by

management for decision-making in various

areas including military applications, supply

chain management, manufacturing, forecasting

and human resource management.

.




Some simulation & war games packages:

- Simulation, Evaluation, Analysis and Research on Air Defence Systems (SEAROADS)

- Combat Sample Generator (COSAGE)

- Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM)

- Tactical Warfare Model (TACWAR)

- Small Unit Battle Simulation Model (SUBSIM)




Land War Games:

- Mechanized Force War Game (MFWG)

- Contingency Force Analysis War Game (CFAW)

Naval War Games:

- Research, Evaluation and System Analysis (RESA)

- MANTHAN

Air War Games:

- AGILE, SABRE



Cost Effectiveness Analysis

Selection of equipment for acquisition from

available systems is an important issue

encountered by defence executive.

The selection of a weapon system depends on its

effectiveness and the cost.

The system which accomplishes the desired level

of effectiveness at lowest cost needs to be

identified from amongst the alternative systems.




The effectiveness of a weapon system is a

quantitative measure of the level up to which the

system meets its objectives.

Effectiveness of an artillery gun system primarily

depends on its rate of fire, lethal radius and

accuracy.

To compare and evaluate alternative gun

systems, need to define a measure of

effectiveness.




For system cost estimation, consider systems

which are to be developed and those which

already exist.

When new systems are developed, expenditure

occurs in R & D, investment, and operating and

support phases.

For existing systems, costing is done on basis of

procurement, maintenance and operating cost

over life cycle.




Fixed Effectiveness Approach – effectiveness

level fixed, find alternative with least cost.

Fixed Budget Approach – budget is fixed, find

alternative with maximum effectiveness.

Figure of Merit Approach – find alternative with

the highest effectiveness/cost ratio.



Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

A tool / technique for evaluating tenders

and contractors when more than one criterion

to consider while making decision.

E.g. weapons for acquisition have to be

evaluated on several criteria, e.g. suitability,

maintainability and cost.

- Multicriteria decision making problem




Tank performance:

Level 1- firepower, mobility, survivability

Level 2

Firepower - main gun, secondary armament,

munitions, FCS, night vision, auto loader

Mobility - P/W ratio, road range, max. speed,

fuel consumption, nominal ground pressure,

Survivability – built in armour, add on armour,

silhouette, laser warning, NBC protection




Data collection from the experts corresponding

to the hierarchy structure is undertaken.

Pair wise comparisons of various criteria and

sub-criteria / sub subcriteria are carried out,

and are organised into a square matrix.

Evaluation and decision then made based on

comparison results.




Selection of contractors:

Level 1- contract value, lead time, competence,

dependability

Level 2

Contract value – currency, terms of payment

Lead time – trial schedule, delivery schedule

Competence – technical, infrastructure

Dependability – variety of contract, performance



OperationsResearch

Exercisecapability

Systems Life CycleIdentified deficiency

New Govt. policyS&T-related policy

Need for new/upgraded

capability

Introduce new/upgraded

capability

Revisetactics

OperationsResearch

OperationsResearch

PlanningTraining

STRATEGIC STUDIES

MILITARY OR

CA

PA

BIL

ITY

ST

UD

IES

Performance DatabaseValidation of Models

Exerciseassessment

New threat



• Force Structure

• Evaluation of operations planning

• Doctrine development

• Manpower and logistic planning

• Force Structure

• Evaluation of operations planning

• Doctrine development

• Manpower and logistic planning

• Strategic planning for MOD and Defence S&T

• Capability and System Analysis

• Analysis of Alternatives

• Strategic planning for MOD and Defence S&T

• Capability and System Analysis

• Analysis of Alternatives

• Mathematical programming

• Spreadsheet modeling

• Constructive simulation for model development

• Mathematical programming

• Spreadsheet modeling

• Constructive simulation for model development

• Source selection studies - Cost analysis

- Cost effectiveness

• Systems development

• Source selection studies - Cost analysis

- Cost effectiveness

• Systems development

QUALITATIVE AND

QUANTITATIVE



Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium

Asia-Pacific Military Operations Research

Symposium (AMORS)

– a formal gathering aimed at those defence and

defence-related personnel who are active users

or managers of OR applications in the solutions

of military problems.

Purpose is to allow military OR / OA analysts

and users to share their military OR work and

promote professional interaction.




Current participating countries are as follows:

Australia Canada

India Indonesia

Japan Korea

Malaysia New Zealand

Pakistan Philippines

Singapore Thailand

U.S.A.




AMORS is an invitation only symposium. The

host country will send invitations to current

representative of each country who will then

solicit members of their country’s OR

organization for topics to present.

The theme of symposium will be chosen by the

host country. Recommendations for the next

symposium will be presented at the Executive

Meeting of the ongoing AMORS.




AMORS is a bi-annual activity and the duration

of symposium is typically 3 days: a two-day

conference proper and a one-day cultural tour.

The programme of the two-day conference

consists of three segments:

- Country Brief

- Presentation of military OR work

- Multilateral Executive Meeting




AMORS VIII, 2006 (6 – 8 June) was held in

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and

the theme of symposium :

“Effective Defence Development Through OR”.

AMORS IX , 2008 (8 – 10 Sept) was held in

Sydney, Australia and the theme of symposium :

“OA / OR Support to Current Operations”.


77SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 77SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCEJuly 2009

1 science and technology research institute for defence 1 operations research : an overview wong...

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