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Roberto PiteaRegional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East

International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo

Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010

Demographic change and human mobility in the Arab region

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Overview

1) Introduction

2) Current human mobility trends

3) Future demographic trends

4) Future urbanization trends

5) Key challenges and opportunities

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Current mobility trends

• The Arab region is both origin, destination and transit region for different categories of migrants and mobile populations

• The UN estimates a total of 28.6 million migrants in the Arab region in 2010 (UNPD, 2009). Over half of them (15.1 million) are living in countries of the GCC.

• Forced migration contributes to human mobility in the Arab region, which hosts 4.7 million Palestinian refugees and an estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees (IOM, 2010).

• However, labour migration remains the major driver of mobility in the region.

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Current mobility trends

• Income and development differentials are the main drivers behind the mobility of workers in the region:

– The average GDP per capita in Arab countries is 8,200 USD, ranging from almost 75,000 USD in Qatar to 2,090 USD in Yemen (UNDP, 2009).

– The average GDP per capita in South Asia (major region of origin of migrants in the Arab region) is 2,905 USD

– Average GDP per capita in Europe (major region of destination for Arab migrants) is 24,775 USD

– The unemployment rate in the region has reached 14.2 per cent in 2009, among the highest in the world (global average is 6%).

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Current mobility trends

-1,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000

Total Migrants from Mashreqand Yemen

Total Migrants from Maghreb

Arab countries Europe Americas

Oceania Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab migrants according to regions of destination.

Source: DRC (2007)

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Current mobility trends

Remittance trends: outflows and inflows

Source: World Bank in IOM (2010)

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Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million

Youth (0 -24) in 2050 : 200 million (36%)

Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million

Demographic Scenario

Youth (15-24) in 2050 : 80 million (14%)

Youth (0 -24) in 2010 : 178 million (53%)

Youth (15-24) in 2010 : 67 million (20%)

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

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Dempographic scenario

• On average, an additional 325,000 people will enter the 15-24 age group every year between now and 2050;

• But, most Arab countries will see sharp drops in the growth rate of younger groups;

• Doubling young labour forces (Iraq, OPT and Yemen);

• Faster transition to an aging labour force (Algeria, Lebanon, and Tunisia);

• Destination countries will face labour force reductions (except Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia).

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Demographic ScenarioYouth (15-24 years old) as a percentage of total population

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

22.0%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

North Africa Mashreq

Gulf countries More Developed regions

Demographic window of opportunity

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

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Demographic scenario

Total Dependency ratios* in 2010

Total Dependency ratios in 2050

56

Average

* Number of children below 15 and people older than 65 for every 100 adults

27

UAE

90

West Bank and Gaza

48

OECD

71

OECD

60

Tunisia

52

Average

48

QatarKSA

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

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27

33

Tunisia

Demographic scenario

Dependency ratios* in 2010

Dependency ratios in 2050

Child DR:Number of children below 15 for every 100 adultsOld Age DR: Number of people over 65 for every 100 adults

22

2

UAE

85

6

OPT

24

23

OECD

26

45

OECD

29

19

KSA

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Key implications

• High proportion of youth (youth bulge) :– Ensuring education for all means falling quality

of education and/or higher government spending;

– Labour markets cannot generate enough job opportunities to absorb unemployed workers and new entrants.

• Decline in (child) dependency ratios :– Demographic window of opportunity can

accelerate development outcomes and processes

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Key challenges

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Morocco Oman UAE Djibouti Kuwait Lebanon Mauri tania Tunis ia

Total publicexpenditure oneducation (as a% of GDP)

Total publicexpenditure oneducation (as a% of totalgovernmentexpenditure)

Source: IOM (2010) based on UNESCO (2006)

Public expenditure on education in select Arab countries

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Key challenges

Source: IOM (2010) based on ILO (2007)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Maghreb Mashreq GCC

PrimaryEducation -MalePrimaryEducation -FemaleSecondaryEducation -MaleSecondaryEducation -FemaleTertiaryEducation -MaleTertiaryEducation -Female

Youth unemployment by level of education and gender.

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Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million

Urban population in 2050 : 413 million (74%)

Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million

Urbanization Scenario

Urban population in 2010 : 191 million (57%)

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/

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Urbanization scenario

• In 1950, only 25 % of the total population in Arab countries lived in cities

• This percentage has increased to 57 % in 2010 and is estimated to reach 74% in 2050

• The fastest increase in urban population between 2010 – 2050 will take place in less developed Arab countries

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Urbanization Scenario(urban population, in ml and as percentage of total population)

Source: UN DESA –Population Division (2007)

2010 7.8

32 %

205034.9 60%

Yemen

Million%

2010 18.745 %

205032.0 74%

Sudan2010 34.043%

205075.662%

Egypt2010 18.457%

205032.075%

Morocco2010 11.755%

205025.874%

Syria

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Key implications

• Demographic and environmental factors compound to create complex socio-economic vulnerabilities

– Declining investment/Loss of productivity of agricultural sector

• Rapid increase in urban population:– Strain on resources and services – Rapid growth of informal urban settlements

(slum areas)– Increase demand for natural resources (food,

fuel, construction material…)

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Key challenges and opportunities

Current push factors• Unemployment and underemployment

especially of youth• Conflict and instability

Future additional push factorsSocio-economic• Accelerating urbanization• Demographic transition Environmental*• Intensification of natural disasters• Increased warming and drought affects

agricultural production and access to water

• Rising sea levels makes coastal areas uninhabitable

• Competition over natural resources may lead to conflict and in turn displacement

Current pull factors• Income and development differentials• Education and employment

opportunities• Security

Future additional pull factorsSocio-economic• Demographic transition (ageing) in

countries of destination

Environmental• Access to sustainable forms of

livelihoods

*Adapted from IOM (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

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Key challenges and opportunities

• The Arab region will undergo significant demographic changes in the next decades

• These changes will have an impact on socio-economic development and, in turn, human mobility.

• Environmental factors will compound to these changes, resulting in more complex mobility dynamics.

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Thank you