1 | program name or ancillary texteere.energy.gov water power peer review 2.1.1: categorizing and...

1 | Program Name or Ancillary Text eere.energy.gov

Water Power Peer Review

2.1.1: Categorizing and Evaluating the Effects of Stressors

Dr. Andrea Copping

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory[[email protected]; (206) 528-3049November, 20112.0 Market Accelleration

Categorizing and Evaluating the Effects of Stressors

Tethys Knowledge Management System&

Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES)

Tethys on the Web

2 | Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov

PNNL Projects: Science to Design, Deploy,

and Operate Ocean Energy Devices in an

Environmentally Responsible Manner

2

Classifying & Evaluating Environmental Effects•Organize data into “smart”, searchable database (Knowledge Management System)

•Use risk assessment tools to determine the really important risks (Environmental Risk Evaluation System)

•This task integrates the other tasks in the project

Effects of Energy Removal from Waterbodies

Direct Effects on Aquatic Animals

Siting constraints and opportunities


Purpose, Objectives, & Integration

Limited information is available on the effects of MHK

=> uncertainty and delays in siting and permitting

Making information on potential environmental effects readily available and by establishing which potential effects pose the greatest risk to the environment => streamline regulatory process

=> also supports research agenda to further reduce uncertainty and the cost of energy

PNNL has created:

=> a Knowledge Management System – Tethys to organize information and make it accessible

=> Risk-based priority ranking system – ERES to help set priorities for permitting attention


Technical Approach - Tethys

Tethys: – collect existing information – support analyses through evidence collection and marshalling, data navigation, and

management of risk model results– knowledge portal for the industry, regulators and other stakeholders, and link to other

knowledge sources

– collaborative environment for the MHK research community; and

– related knowledge systems including Annex IV database, offshore wind.

•Functionality created with input from end users, with goal of placing data into appropriate context

•Semantically enabled management of documents in a wiki-like environment

•Rich linkages and searching among documents based on: sites/locations/projects; MHK technology types; receptor attributes, and data quality.


Technical Approach - ERES

ERES

•Developed to analyze the level of risk associated with interactions between stressors and receptors

•Early ERES analyses have relied on expert judgment and published literature to measure consequences of interactions.

•Probability analyses have been carried out for oil spill from interaction of tidal turbine and surface vessel; toxicity from anti-biofouling paint

•ERES uses a case study approach, with active MHK projects representing the cases.

•Five initial five cases (two tidal, two wave, and one riverine) analyzed for consequence.


Plan, Schedule, & Budget

Schedule• Work initiated on 1 October 2010; planned completion date is 30 September 2012• Tethys milestones:

September 2010 – Requirements for Tethys finalizedApril 2011 – Release of beta version of Tethys outside PNNL firewallAugust 2011 – OSU Marine Science Library MHK collection added to TethysNovember 2011 – Release of Tethys with enhanced content

• ERES milestones:April 2010 – Workshop on ERES for MHK industry, feedback gathered for ERES designMay 2010 – Three initial ERES cases identified November 2010 – Consequence analysis completed for initial three ERES casesJune 2011 – First two probability analyses completedSeptember 2011 – Consequence analysis completed for cases #4 and #5

Budget• No budget variances• FY10 and FY11 funds expended, waiting on FY12 funds

Budget HistoryFY2009 FY2010 FY2011

DOE Cost-share DOE Cost-share DOE Cost-share

Tethys $150K $0 $20K $0 $100K $0

ERES $120 $0 $20K $0 $100K $K


Accomplishments and Results - Tethys

• Tethys developed to meet the end user needs • Released as beta version in April 2011. • Continuing upgrades to address traffic on

website and functionality requirements• 91 documents have been entered into Tethys

and tagged as of 9/30/2011, including Oregon State Univ. MHK collection

• Connections made to Multipurpose Marine Cadastre to enhance Tethys mapping capabilities

Schematic of Tethys relationships with analysis tools (represented by ERES)and with stakeholders


• Tethys content continually being added

• Functionality in place, live now

• Launch in November 2011

• Tethys development informed from user requirements extracted from five Use Case Scenarios

• End users represented:– MHK technology developers

– Federal regulators

– State regulators

– MHK researchers

– Tribal fish biologists and managers

– Non-governmental organizations

Accomplishments and Results - Tethys

http://mhk.pnl.gov


Accomplishments and Results - ERES

• Consequence analyses for five ERES cases completed (two tidal, two wave, one riverine), three peer reviewed and demonstrated to MHK developers, feedback incorporated.

• Scientific rankings for consequence dominated by species with small populations, species with behavior that increases interaction with devices (marine mammals, diving birds and shoaling fish).

Risk components: Probability and Consequence

Initial 5 ERES cases


• Low risk seen for spills due to an MHK device-surface vessel encounter, and from toxicity of anti-biofouling paints, based on probability analyses, for small number of devices.

• Initial estimates of encounter between an endangered marine mammal and a ducted tidal turbine appear to be small.

• Most stringent regulations drive highest priority consequences, including strict take prohibitions, species with special protection. Lower levels of protection for other species and habitats result in lower ranked consequences

Accomplishments and Results - ERES

Tidal (OH) Stressor Tidal (OH) Receptor

First Tier

Accident/disaster (oil spills) T&E cetacean (killer whale)

Accident/disaster (oil spills) T&E pinniped (Steller sea lion)

Physical presence (dynamic) T&E cetacean (killer whale)

Physical presence (dynamic) T&E pinniped (Steller sea lion)

Physical presence (dynamic) T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Second Tier

Noise T&E cetacean (killer whale)

Noise T&E pinniped (Steller sea lion)

Accident/disaster (oil spill) T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Leaching of toxic chemicals T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Noise T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Third Tier

EMF T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Physical presence (static) T&E bird (marbled murrelet)

Fourth Tier

Physical presence (static) T&E cetacean (killer whale)

Physical presence (static) T&E pinniped (Steller sea lion)

Results of consequence analysis for tidal case. Biophysical ranking for marine mammals (left); biophysical and regulatory rankings for all receptors (right).


Challenges to Date - Tethys

Challenges

• Designing a functional KMS to suit the needs of key stakeholders including the MHK industry and regulators.

• Documents and datasets to populate Tethys are often not readily available

• Technical challenges of maintaining and updating useful and functional web-based operational system.

Approaches to Overcoming Challenges

• PNNL staff work closely with end users, MHK industry, researchers, to understand needs, and develop links with other data systems to increase content and functionality, and with content providers to enhance Tethys content.

• PNNL has in place a dedicated team of programmers and curators to ensure Tethys remains current and functional.


Challenges to Date - ERES

Challenges

• Designing a risk analysis system in the absence of many relevant data.

• Developing sufficient information on key stressors and receptors to determine the consequence of those interactions.

• Developing probability analyses that are not dependent solely on large robust datasets.

Approaches to Overcoming Challenges

• PNNL staff learned from the risk literature and drew on biological and physical first principles, to develop a system of stressor-receptor interactions that were scored and ranked, then overlaid with regulatory risk factors. Peer review helped hone the techniques.

• PNNL staff worked closely with MHK project developers and researchers to gain insight into measurements that have been made, and drew from published interactions from other industries and activities to infer probable consequences.


Next Steps (FY12)

TethysFull functional version of Tethys will become available after DOE Water

Power staff have finished their review, slated for November 2011.Migration to .org site before full launch for greater accessibility.System will be advertised, broad use encouraged, and feedback from

users sought (through online blog).Content will be increased dramatically through FY12 and functionality

upgraded.

ERESCases #4 and #5 will be shared with the respective developers, peer

review sought, and the cases revised.Journal article on the ERES process and outcomes will be prepared.An expert elicitation will be carried out with marine mammal and

regulatory experts to determine the probability of encounter between tidal turbine blades to be deployed in Puget Sound and the endangered Southern Resident Killer Whale (aka orca).