1 preliminary ipt results only asprs/crsp ipt * 10 year remote sensing industry (rsi) forecast may...

1Preliminary IPT Results Only

ASPRS/CRSP IPTASPRS/CRSP IPT** 10 Year 10 YearRemote Sensing Industry (RSI)Remote Sensing Industry (RSI)

ForecastForecast

May 24, 2000May 24, 2000

*Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position


Background

• As we enter the Information Era, As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential with significant potential impact on the U.S.impact on the U.S.

– Socio-economicSocio-economic

– EnvironmentalEnvironmental

– National securityNational security

• To maximize the potential, there is an urgent To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements …customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements …

– Commercial Commercial

– GovernmentGovernment

– AcademiaAcademia

and measure successand measure success– Standards Standards

– BaselinesBaselines

– Criteria Criteria


Background

August 1999August 1999

Under a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), Under a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have

combined resources and expertise to develop combined resources and expertise to develop a baseline and forecast of the a baseline and forecast of the

Remote Sensing Industry MarketRemote Sensing Industry Market


Vision and Mission

Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both U.S. Government and private industry for both U.S. Government and private industry enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly enterprises and facilitate U.S. dominance in this highly competitive market.competitive market.

By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly develop a process that:develop a process that:

– Enables analysis of the Remote Sensing IndustryEnables analysis of the Remote Sensing Industry– Baselines the industryBaselines the industry– Presents a 10-year business forecastPresents a 10-year business forecast


Integrated Product Team (IPT)

Working Group IPTs Working Group IPTs Formed as NeededFormed as Needed

• Lit. Search:Lit. Search: Jim Plasker Jim Plasker

• Interview:Interview: Charles Charles Mondello and Ron Rabin Mondello and Ron Rabin

• Survey:Survey: Bill Piper and Bill Piper andJim PlaskerJim Plasker

• Forecast:Forecast: Ron Rabin and Ron Rabin and Mindy BrownMindy Brown

• Marketing:Marketing: Mindy Brown Mindy Brown and Patrick Skrmettiand Patrick Skrmetti

Mike Renslow, Co-Chair Spencer B. GrossJason Kessler, Co-Chair NASA/ESE Commercial Remote

Sensing Program (CRSP)Charles Mondello, Co-ViceChair

EarthData Technologies

Ron Rabin, Co-Vice Chair Lockheed Martin/CRSP

John Baker RANDMike Beckman National Oceanic & Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA)Nate Boyer KodakBarbara Brodtmann Lockheed Martin/CRSPMindy Brown Space ImagingGeorge Hepner University of UtahLen LaFeir AutometricGary Moll American ForestsAlan Mikuni U.S. Geological SurveyBill Piper Leading EdgeJim Plasker ASPRSJohn Schott Rochester Institute of TechnologyKaren Schuckman Earthdata International of NCPatrick Skrmetti Lockheed Martin/CRSPTim Stryker NOAAJoan Zelinski PAR Government Systems Corp.Don Light Landcare AviationTom Lillesand University of Wisconsin-Madison


Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan


Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan

• Phase IPhase I Characterization and Baseline Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)

• Phase IIPhase II Characterization of Customers/Users Characterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001)(Jan 2001)

• Phase IIIPhase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003)Validate I and II (Dec 2003)

• Phase IVPhase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)Market Forecast (Dec 2004)


SAA Near-term Goals

• Create and maintain interest and awarenessCreate and maintain interest and awareness

• Develop processDevelop process– InterviewInterview

– SurveySurvey

– Literature searchLiterature search

– Market forecastMarket forecast

• Present plan and interim results (May 2000)Present plan and interim results (May 2000)

• Present Phase I results (Dec 2000)Present Phase I results (Dec 2000)

Your Feedback EssentialYour Feedback EssentialYour Feedback EssentialYour Feedback Essential


Market Sectors

• Commercial/Private/Not for ProfitCommercial/Private/Not for Profit

• GovernmentGovernment– FederalFederal

– StateState

– LocalLocal

• AcademiaAcademia

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Preliminary IPT Results Only

Remote Sensing Industry

DataCollection

Data Processing

IndustryIntermediaries

SupportElements

Platforms & Sensors

End-User

• Hardware

• Software

• Etc.

• VARs

• Consultants

• Etc.

Business Segments

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Market Segments

12


Market Segments

NAICS:NAICS:

Market segments have been Market segments have been mapped to the North mapped to the North American Industry American Industry Classification System Classification System (formerly the SIC codes) (formerly the SIC codes) for the Remote Sensing for the Remote Sensing Industry to provide the Industry to provide the ability to correlate future ability to correlate future economic census data economic census data retrospectively to market retrospectively to market forecasts.forecasts.

AgricultureCivil Government

Entertainment/MediaEnvironmental

Exploration & MiningForestry

InsuranceMapping

Military/Intelligence(National/Global Security)

Real EstateTelecommunications

TransportationUtilities

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Busin

ess

Busin

ess

Segm

ents

Segm

ents

Forecast Framework

Market SegmentsMarket Segments

CommercialCommercial

GovernmentGovernment

CustomerCustomerSegmentsSegments

AcademiaAcademia Data Collection

Data Collection

Data Processing

Data Processing

Support

Support

Elements

Elements

Intermediaries

Intermediaries

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Study Components• Literature SearchLiterature Search

• InterviewsInterviews

• SurveySurvey

• Market ForecastMarket Forecast

LiteratureLiteratureSearchSearch

SurveySurvey

InterviewsInterviews

ANALYSISANALYSISMarket Market ForecastForecast

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Literature Review

• Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999

• KPMGKPMG

• Merrill LynchMerrill Lynch

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Commercial Sector Interviews

Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments

Demographic Number

Interviews (CEO’s toManagers)

32

Sectors Represented Commercial 30 Government 1 Academia 1

Business Segments Industry Intermediaries 19 Data Collection 7 Data Processing 6

Support Elements 8

Summary:Summary:

• These preliminary results apply to These preliminary results apply to

commercial sector onlycommercial sector only

• This commercial sample represents This commercial sample represents

about 20% of targeted 150 companiesabout 20% of targeted 150 companies

• Government and academia sectors to Government and academia sectors to

be addedbe added

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Commercial Sector MarketsAgriculture

Civil GovernmentEntertainment/Media

EnvironmentalExploration & Mining

ForestryInsuranceMapping

Military/Intelligence(National/Global Security)

Real EstateTelecommunications

TransportationUtilities

MARKET SEGMENTS

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4

MappingNational/Global Security

Forestry Real Estate

CivilGovernment

Exploration &Mining

Agriculture Entertainment

EnvironmentTele-communications

(Engineering) Insurance

Transportation (GIS) Utilities

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Emerging Key Factors & Barriers

• CompetitionCompetition

– The international playing field is not level. The international playing field is not level.

» U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors foreign competitors

– Foreign competitor workforce trains in U.S.Foreign competitor workforce trains in U.S.

– Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costsdue to investment costs

– Issue: Issue: US GovernmentUS Government role? Industry role?role? Industry role?

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• Governmental influence is pervasive...Governmental influence is pervasive...

– Legislation and policies restrict U.S. company foreign sales, Legislation and policies restrict U.S. company foreign sales, but do not hinder foreign companies but do not hinder foreign companies

– Government is predominant purchaser of data Government is predominant purchaser of data

– Mergers with foreign companies are problematicMergers with foreign companies are problematic

– StandardizationStandardization

– Issues: Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Who should lead? Is anybody now? Could/Should U.S. Government and Industry become Could/Should U.S. Government and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?”closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?”

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• Technology: Innovations needed to...Technology: Innovations needed to...

– Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery timetime

» “ “Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips

– Provide information valued by user Provide information valued by user

– Develop system of systems that integrate/mergeDevelop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions

– Lower costsLower costs

Issues: Issues: How can the industry focus more sharply on How can the industry focus more sharply on real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? Role of U.S. Government? Role of U.S. Government?

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• Education is multi-faceted problem...Education is multi-faceted problem...– Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression

of task levelsof task levels» The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified

applicants fewapplicants few

» How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return home)train in US, return home)

– Knowledgeable customers/usersKnowledgeable customers/users

– Issues: Issues: Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current education education "pipeline""pipeline"? Whose responsibility is ? Whose responsibility is “knowledgeable” customer?“knowledgeable” customer?

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• Lack of customer knowledge inhibits market growthLack of customer knowledge inhibits market growth– Users are not fully aware of potential benefitsUsers are not fully aware of potential benefits

– Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles for user enlightenmentfor user enlightenment

– Issue: Issue: Industry investment is needed to cultivate the marketIndustry investment is needed to cultivate the market

• Economy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing Economy has heavy impact on U.S. remote sensing industryindustry

– Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic fluctuationsfluctuations

– Issue: Issue: Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing powerpower

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• Increased growth Increased growth andand competition competition

» Scope is Global: Scope is Global: Growing Global Market, growing global Growing Global Market, growing global competition; U.S. Government and U.S. industry vs. foreign competition; U.S. Government and U.S. industry vs. foreign nations and industry at home and abroadnations and industry at home and abroad

• Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvements and improvements

» LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, micro-systems, etc.micro-systems, etc.

• Increased personal use of remote sensing informationIncreased personal use of remote sensing information

Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, realignments)realignments)

Future Industry TrendsFuture Industry Trends

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Market ForecastMarket Forecast

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Market ForecastMarket Forecast

• 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizationsorganizations

– 20% Complete20% Complete

– Government and Academia Sectors will be addedGovernment and Academia Sectors will be added

• Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000]industry groups [August - October 2000]

• Phase I interview and survey results available [December Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000]2000]

• Literature search Literature search

• AnalysisAnalysis

• Market forecastMarket forecast

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• 20002000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion

– U.S. marketU.S. market

» Aerial imagery dominates Aerial imagery dominates

» Software is significant componentSoftware is significant component

» High resolution space-based imagery just entering marketHigh resolution space-based imagery just entering market

• Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multi- spectral data (space-based collection) spectral data (space-based collection)

• Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer-Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumer-driven marketsdriven markets

• Integrated orthophotography unit cost decliningIntegrated orthophotography unit cost declining

Current World RSI Market Projections

Source: Frost & Sullivan 1999

Based on conventional approaches ...Based on conventional approaches ...

27


Projected Market Forecast

What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”? What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”?

• Assumes inelastic market, Assumes inelastic market, therefore could be therefore could be conservativeconservative

• Out years difficult to Out years difficult to predictpredict

• Market analysis process Market analysis process will better define the will better define the futurefuture

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2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Years

$ B

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The

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ear)

Space Aerial GIS SW & SevicesBased in part on Frost and Sullivan, 1999

World wide Remote Sensing MarketWorld wide Remote Sensing Market

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What If...?????

• Space-based imagery proliferation results Space-based imagery proliferation results in new markets in new markets

• The workforce issues are resolvedThe workforce issues are resolved

• User knowledge/awareness is enhancedUser knowledge/awareness is enhanced

• U.S. Government levels the playing field U.S. Government levels the playing field for international competitionfor international competition

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What If...?????

• Existing technologies inserted in Existing technologies inserted in existing applicationexisting application

– LIDARLIDAR

– RadarRadar

– SAR/IFSARSAR/IFSAR

– Commercial satellitesCommercial satellites

– GPSGPS

• Emergent technologies enrich Emergent technologies enrich existing applicationsexisting applications

– Electronic & wireless information Electronic & wireless information transfertransfer

– HyperspectralHyperspectral

– Multi-returns radarMulti-returns radar

– Foliage Penetrating (Fopen) radarFoliage Penetrating (Fopen) radar

• New systems are created to New systems are created to support RSIsupport RSI

– Unattended systemsUnattended systems

– Systems of systemsSystems of systems

– Knowledge-based decision aidsKnowledge-based decision aids

– Personal use systemsPersonal use systems

• New technologies create new New technologies create new merged applicationsmerged applications

– Micro-electronicsMicro-electronics

– Micro powerMicro power

– Multi sensors in single platformsMulti sensors in single platforms

– Bandwidth increaseBandwidth increase

Technologies are combined in creative, innovative Technologies are combined in creative, innovative ways to meet customer/user requirementsways to meet customer/user requirements

Time

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and What if ??? ...

• Remote sensing resources Remote sensing resources are increasingly applied to are increasingly applied to broader issues related to broader issues related to socio-economic improvement, socio-economic improvement, environment, infrastructure, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etcdisaster mitigation, etc

• Use of remote sensing Use of remote sensing information becomes information becomes increasingly ubiquitous increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, and transparent to users, especially in the domain of especially in the domain of personal-use systemspersonal-use systems

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Years

$ B

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Yea

r)

Space Aerial GIS SW and Services

Then

More Answers at the December MeetingMore Answers at the December MeetingMore Answers at the December MeetingMore Answers at the December Meeting

31


Estimating/Forecasting Future RS Market

Market Segments AddressableMarket

1 Civil Government:2 Exploration/Resources 3 Mapping4 Military/Intelligence5 Agriculture6 Entertainment/Media7 Environmental8 Forestry9 Insurance

10 Real Estate11 Transportation12 Utilities13 Telecommunications

TOTAL

Example Factors for Example Factors for ConsiderationConsideration

• Addressable market Addressable market • Potential sales; revenues; Potential sales; revenues; profit marginsprofit margins• Investment Investment • Potential influences of Potential influences of

market globalismmarket globalism• Better market measuresBetter market measures

32


Market Summary

Growth? YES!!!Growth? YES!!!

Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet real needs of users and customer’s requirements real needs of users and customer’s requirements

with focus on remote sensing information with focus on remote sensing information rather than simply supplying data and imageryrather than simply supplying data and imagery

More details in December More details in December

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Industry Research Industry Research

&&

Survey MethodologySurvey Methodology

34


ASPRS/NASA ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry SurveyJoint Industry Survey

PurposePurpose

To better understand the industry:To better understand the industry:

• Current baseline of industryCurrent baseline of industry

• A 10-year industry forecastA 10-year industry forecast

• An estimate of future industry trends An estimate of future industry trends

• Future workforce needsFuture workforce needs

35


Survey Plan OutlineSurvey Plan Outline

• Perform Perform preliminary preliminary interviewsinterviews

• Develop online Develop online questionsquestions

• Design databaseDesign database

• Expand on Expand on premisepremise

• Establish Establish e-mail liste-mail list

• Collect/analyzeCollect/analyzedatadata

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Commercial Survey ObjectiveCommercial Survey Objective

To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in current operations and future expectations in terms of:terms of:

• Average firm size

• The primary markets they serve

• Trends and directions of the industry forces affecting the growth of the industry

• Establishing the current and future workforce needs

37


Academic Survey ObjectivesAcademic Survey Objectives

• To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period:To define the changes in the 2000-2010 period:

– numbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificatesnumbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificates

– faculty recruitment- specialties to be hiredfaculty recruitment- specialties to be hired

– technology acquisition and laboratory developmenttechnology acquisition and laboratory development

– disciplinary and interdisciplinary program developmentdisciplinary and interdisciplinary program development

• To understand the business and governmental environments To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example: most applicable to this community. For example:

– business-university partnership commercialization effortsbusiness-university partnership commercialization efforts

– researchresearch

– funding, equipment fundsfunding, equipment funds

– registration/certification regulationsregistration/certification regulations

– friction between private sector and educational project work friction between private sector and educational project work

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ASPRS/NASAASPRS/NASAJoint Industry SurveyJoint Industry Survey

We Will Be Conducting We Will Be Conducting

an Online Survey That an Online Survey That

Will Begin Like This:Will Begin Like This:

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Industry SurveyIndustry Survey

Click here to beginClick here to beginClick here to beginClick here to begin

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Care to Join Us???Care to Join Us???

Contact:Contact:Charles Mondello or Ron RabinCharles Mondello or Ron Rabin

[email protected]@asprs.orgFor copies of presentation: www.asprs.orgFor copies of presentation: www.asprs.org

Contributing Organizations Include:Contributing Organizations Include:NOAANOAA

Spencer B. Gross, Inc.Spencer B. Gross, Inc.University of UtahUniversity of Utah

KodakKodakSpace ImagingSpace Imaging

Earthdata TechnologiesEarthdata TechnologiesPAR Government SystemsPAR Government Systems

AutometricAutometric

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The End

1 preliminary ipt results only asprs/crsp ipt * 10 year remote sensing industry (rsi) forecast may...

Documents

preliminary ipt results

interim results

phase ivmarket forecast

present phase

remote sensing needs

asprscrsp ipt

ipt opinion

baseline forecast