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RAHMI YUNIARTI, ST.,MT

TEKNIK INDUSTRIUNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA MALANG

N LISIS KEPUTUS N


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2

Tujuan Instruksional Umum

Memahami konsep dasar dan paradigma permasalahan

keputusan, serta cara-cara yang digunakan untuk

memodelkan keputusan, ketidakpastian, dan preferensi

pengambil keputusan sehingga dapat menganalisisdan memilih alternatif terbaik menurut kriteria-kriteria

yang ditetapkan


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3

Clemen, Robert T., (1995), Making Hard

Decis ions, 2ndEdition, Duxbury Press

Holoway, Charles A. (1979), Decis ionMaking Under Uncertainty ; Models and

Choices, Prentice Hall

Skinner, David C., In t roduc t ion to Decis ion

Analysis, 2ndEdition., Probabilistic, 1999

Referensi


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INTRODUCTION Examples of decision Problems :

- In a cafetaria, you are to decide which food to choose

- In a factory, the engineering manager is consedering twodifferent construction sites for a factory expansion

Why Decision Analysis? Why not just using intuition?

# Basically we use analysis if the decision to make is a hard

decision problem. Hard decision requires hard thinking !

# Decision analysis provides structure and guidance for thinking

systematically about hard decisions.

# With decision analysis, a decision maker can take action with

confidence gained through a clear understanding about the

problem.


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Why Are Decisions Hard?

Simply because its complexity

- Thus, decision problems need to be structured

The inherent uncertainty in the situation

-Thus, important to understand the source of uncertainty and

able to assess uncertainty

The problem is multi objective in nature

- Thus, a tool is needed to provide a trade off among conf l icting

objectives The decisions are sensitive to changes of input or differences in

perspectives

- Thus, a method for sensitivity analysis is needed


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Contoh: Borda CountKompetisi mengarang lagu amatir di Slobonia dimana terdapat 4pengarang lagu dan 7 orang juri. Penilaian dilakukan dengan aturanbahwa lagu dengan kriteria yang ditetapkan mendapat nilai 4 dengannilai terkecil 1

Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah C dengan ranking C B A D

Tetapi, muncul protes karena lagu D pengarangnya profesional yangsebenarnya tidak boleh ikut kompetisi.

Apakah keputusan pemenang tetap lagu C?

Lagu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Nilai

A 1st 4th 3th 1st 4th 3th 1st 18

B 2nd 1st 4th 2nd 1st 4th 2nd 19

C 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 20*

D 4th 3th 2nd 4th 3th 2nd 4th 13


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Contoh: Borda CountPenilaian diulang tanpa Lagu D

Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah A dengan ranking A B C

Lagu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Nilai

A 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 15*

B 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 14

C 3th 2nd 1st 3th 2nd 1st 3th 13


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Decision analysis will not solve a decision

problem, nor is intended to. Its purpose is

to produce insight and promote creativityto help decision makers make better

decision. (Kenney, 1982)


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Definisi Analisis Keputusan

Keeney and Raiffa, 1976

Prescriptive approach designed for normally intelligent people

who want to think hard and systematically about some important

real problems

A decision analysis is an information source

A decision analysis should not replace a decision maker

but should support him

A decision analysis not only provide solution, but alsoprovide insight to:

- Situation - Objectives

- Uncertainty - Trade off


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Mengapa Analisis Keputusan diperlukan?

Secara psikologis manusia pada umumnya tidak memprosesinformasi dan membuat keputusan dengan cara yang tidak

konsisten

Membantu memahami permasalahan dengan lebih baik

sehingga dapat membuat keputusan yang lebih baikwalaupun tidak menjamin memberikan hasil terbaik

Memberikan petunjuk yang jelas dalam melakukan

perancangan penyelesaianpermasalahan real (kompleks)

secara sistematis

Untuk menyesuaikan terhadap tindakan yang diambil

sebelumnya agar keputusan tersebut benar-benar tepat

untuk dijalankan (memperbaiki kualitaskeputusan)


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An Example

Imagine that you are a manager in a company. You have

been working there for about 10 years. Your career has

been pretty good but later you feel that there is little

opportunity for promotion and the situation is boring. You

have told this to a friend of you. He suggested to you to

resign and work on your own as a consultant. Your wife

however reject that idea. She argued that it is already a good

job with a good pay you are happy with a family staying in a

relatively large and nice house. If you were that manager

what is your decision? Please analyse your decision

problem.


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The Process of Decision Analysis

1. Identify the problem

2. Identify objectives and alternatives

3. Decompose and model problem : Structure the problem

Model uncertainty

Model preferences

4. Choose the best alternative

5. Do sensitivity analysis

6. If no further analysis is required, implement the

choosen alternative


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Proses Analisis Keputusan (1)

1. Identifikasi Permasalahan

Seluruh aspek harus mendapat perhatian untukdiidentifikasi

Pemahaman yang baik terhadap permasalahanseringkali menyatakan permasalahan real yangmungkin tersembunyi

Seringkali sulit untuk dilaksanakan dengan baik

2. Identifikasi Tujuan dan Alternatif

Menentukan tujuan yang akan dicapai

Mengembangkan alternatif untuk pemecahanmasalahnya

Kunci keberhasilan Analisis Keputusan pada langkahini


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Elements of Decisions Structure

The decision to be made

The possible course of action

(alternatives) The possible outcomes that can result

The likelihood of those outcomes

Cost and benefits to be derived fromthose outcomes


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Kesimpulan

Analisis keputusan untuk membantu

seorang decision maker berpikir secara

sistematis tentang permasalahan yangkompleks dan untuk meningkatkan

kualitas keputusan yang dihasilkan

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