1 microscale air dispersion modeling community health neighborhood assessment program working draft...
TRANSCRIPT
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Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling
Community HealthNeighborhood Assessment Program
Working Draft Do Not Cite or Quote
Tony Servin, P.E.
October 10, 2001
Air Resources Board
California Environmental Protection Agency
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Overview
• Local Emissions Only– Cars & Trucks
• CALINE
– Facilities• ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF
• Primary Emissions– no chemical reaction– no deposition
Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
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Overview (cont.)
• Today’s results are predicted with
– ISCST3
– CALINE
• Inhalation Risk is based on predicted
concentrations from local emissions
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General Location
Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
•Lindbergh Field
•North Island
•Shipping Lane
•Logan Memorial
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Closer LookBarrio Logan / Logan Heights
Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
•Rail Line
•Shipping Lane
•Shipping Docks–B Street
–10th Street
•Logan Memorial
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Aerial View of Barrio LoganWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
Local Sources
Facilities
Point and Volume Sources
Rail Line
Volume Sources
Shipping Lane
Volume Sources
Logan Memorial
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Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
•Lindbergh Field–Approach–Climb Out
•North Island–Approach–Climb Out
•Shipping Lane•Logan Memorial
Total 660 Point and Volume Sources
Satellite View of San Diego
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WIND ROSE PLOT
Station #72290 - ,
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST EAST
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Wind Speed (m/s)
> 11.06
8.49 - 11.06
5.40 - 8.49
3.34 - 5.40
1.80 - 3.34
0.51 - 1.80
UNIT
m/s
DISPLAY
Wind Speed
CALM WINDS
11.05%
MODELER
DATE
10/2/01
COMPANY NAME
CARB
COMMENTS
WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com
PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME
2000 Jan 1 - Dec 31Midnight - 11 PM
AVG. WIND SPEED
2.12 m/s
ORIENTATION
Direction(blowing from)
PROJECT/PLOT NO.
Logan Memorial
Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
Logan Memorial Wind RoseNov 1, 1999 to
Oct 31, 2000
Sea Breeze (predominately daytime)
Land Breeze (predominately nighttime)
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Results - Concentration
• Examples of Concentration Plots
– Perchloroethylene
– Manganese
• ISCST3 results underpredict observed
annual average concentration at Logan
Memorial
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Perc local emissions Ann. Avg.
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
(obs. 0.54 ug/m 3)
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
(ug/m 3)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.005
0.010
0.020
0.050
0.100
0.200
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Mn local emissions Ann. Avg.
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
(obs. 0.031 ug/m 3)
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
(ug/m 3)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.005
0.010
0.020
0.050
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Motor Vehicle LinksWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
Input to CALINE
991 Links from DTIM
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Risk Form local emissions
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
(obs. 16/m illion)
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
1
2
5
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Risk Benz local emissions
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(obs. 74/m illion)
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
2
5
10
20
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Risk Cr(VI) local emissions
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
(obs. < LO D : 30/m illion)
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
10
20
50
100
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Comparisons to Facility HRA
• Two facilities evaluated without diesel PM
– Southwest Marine
– NASSCO
• Predictions similar, not identical
• Differences likely due to:
– Met. Data (Lindbergh/Logan Memorial)
– Inventory (variations)
– Model options (rural/urban, initial conditions)
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Risk Southwest Marine (w/o DPM)
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28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
2
5
10
20
50
100
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Risk NASSCO (w/o DPM)
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inhalation R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
2
5
10
20
50
100
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Risk - Facilities (w/o DPM) local emissions
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28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
20
50
100
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Risk DPM local emissions
Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote
28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inhalation R isk(per M illion)
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
0
100
200
500
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Risk Summary local emissions
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28
th S
t.
Hw
y. 1
5
C om m ercia l
Logan M em oria l
Inhalation R isk(per M illion)
0
100
200
500
0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m
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Inhalation Risk (per Million) Estimates at Logan Memorial|---------- Modeled ISCST3/CAL3QHCR ------------------------------|
Observed MV NON-MV Diesel Trk Diesel Othr TotalAcet 4 0 0 0Benz 74 4 1 5Buta 88 5 3 8Cr(VI) < LOD 16 16Form 16 1 1 2Meth Chl 0 0 0Ni 1 0 0Perc 3 0 0TCE 0 0 0other 23 5 5Total 210 10 27 37
DPM 27 107 134
0 means less than 0.5 / millionCr(VI) was observed on occasion but is generally below LOD (30/million)
Risk at Logan MemorialWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote
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Further Analysis
• Simulations with
– AERMOD
– CALPUFF
• Evaluation of the tracer studies and
model performance
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Conclusions• Diesel PM is the major contributor to
inhalation Risk
• Facility risk similar to HRA risk
• ISC/CALINE generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial
• Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation
Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote