1 Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Its the ecology* stupid! Paul Reiter, Pasteur Institute and partners in the EDEN project *and the behavior 2Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Welcome to Yakutsk, NE Siberia! Courtesy: Lena and Larry Huldn F 3Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 YearCasesYearCases Courtesy: Lena and Larry Huldn Annual cases of malaria 4Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Vector-borne diseases; levels of complexity Human : human Human : vector : human Animal : vector : animal (+human) Animal : vector (a+b) : vector (c) (+animal/human) Bird : vector #1 : animal : vector #2 : (+human) Zoonotic transmission Direct transmission 5Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Ecology and behaviour: the big picture! Vector ecology Vector behavior Host ecology Host behavior Human ecology Human behavior 6Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 The EDEN Project Courtesy: Guy Hendrickx (Avia-GIS) & Renaud Lancelot (CIRAD ) Emerging Diseases in a Changing European eNvironment 7Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 European ecosystems linked to global change Impact on distribution and transmission of pathogens Models to predict dispersal and transmission Surveillance and modeling for early warning EU call for proposals 8Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 EDEN integrated project WP8 Training, Dissemination, Management & Coordination Tools and Scenarios - WP7 - Vertical Disease Sub-Projects Tick Borne Rodent Borne Leishmania West Nile Africa WNV-RVF Malaria Horizontal Integration Teams - grouped under WP6 - Data Management & Information Systems (WP6.1) Low Resolution Remote Sensing & Spatial Modelling (WP6.2) High Resolution Remote Sensing & Environmental Change Monitoring (WP6.2) Mathematical Modelling & Disease Establishment and Spread (WP6.3) Biodiversity & Impact on Disease Spread (WP6.3) For each indicator disease, field studies are conducted to understand patterns and processes: WP1 Landscapes/biotopes WP2 Vectors WP3 Public health WP4 Animal hosts/reservoirs WP5 Integrated data analysis Courtesy: Guy Hendrickx (Avia-GIS) & Renaud Lancelot (CIRAD ) 9Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 White-footed mouse 10Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Recorded cases of tick-borne encephalitis, Europe Temperature TBE virus FXHeinz Courtesy: Sarah Randolph Tick-borne Encephalitis 11Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 The distribution of Tick-Borne Encephalitis 1997 Courtesy: Sarah Randolph 12 Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Monthlymeanlandsurface temp o C month non-synchronouslarvaeTicknos. nymphs month Observed and predicted foci of TBE in Europe synchronous larvae Climate From biology of parasites to epidemiology - a delicate balance Courtesy: Sarah Randolph 13Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Network of independent but synergistic biological and non-biological factors Examples of data from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Czech Republic. Reducedindustrialpollution Global brightening ?? Environmentalawareness? Socio-economictransition employees LT output LV Regeneration of shrubs Increase in rodent populations (transmission hosts) Decline of agriculture LV wooded LV LV field crops LV SI CZ LV Increased co-feeding transmission of TBEV More infected ticks Sumilo D, Randolph SE, et al PLoS ONE (2007) e500 More hosts for adult ticks More ticks LV LV CZ Sudden increase in Spring temperature ES 1.Mar-20.Apr Apr Higherunemployment More wealth & leisure CZ SI Greater human exposure to ticks in forests? Higher TBE incidence CZ SI LV TBE cases/100,000 population umilo D, Randolph SE et al (2008) Revs Med Virol Courtesy: Sarah Randolph 14Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 umilo D, Randolph SE et al (2008) Revs Med Virol Correlations between socio-economic factors and increases in TBE incidence across CEE countries LV EE CZ SI HU LT PL SK R 2 = Relative increase in mean TBE incidence from to Perceived poverty 2002* *Data from Heyns 2005, Ann Rev Sociol 31, LV EE CZ SI HU LT PL SK % of total expenditure spent on food, 1999* R 2 = Shift from correlations in time to correlations in space Shift from correlations in time to correlations in space - substantiates causality - substantiates causality Courtesy: Sarah Randolph 15Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 A new source of income 16Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 By chance, acted synergistically on living conditions of all partners: Evidence for the impact of the following on tick-borne diseases: n Changes in human behaviour induced by socio-economic factors n Human-induced biotic environmental changes n Human-induced abiotic environmental changes Climate change and emerging tick-borne infections Political Unforeseen consequences of: end of Soviet rule end of the cold war political global warming political global warming Virus, ticks, wildlife, humans Virus, ticks, wildlife, humans Enhanced - zoonotic risk of infection Enhanced - zoonotic risk of infection - exposure of humans to risk - exposure of humans to risk Human activities, driven by a wide variety of factors, are crucially important in the emergence of ZOONotic diseases 17Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Landscape and disease transmission Puumala hantavirus incidence ( ) Lyme borreliosis incidence ( ) Linard, Tersago et al., 2007 Data from: Institute of Public Health, Belgium Hantavirus and Lyme borreliosis infections in Belgium remote forest areas low incomes Outdoor work wealthy areas forested periurban zones Recreational activities 18Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 EDEN publications 19Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 But is our work worth a hill of beans? SpecialistsActivists Percent 20Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 A network of reviewsof reviews 21Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 IPCC chapters on Human Health AR2AR3AR4 CPrincipal lead author A Lead author IContributorLead author BPrincipal lead author Lead author HContributing author EContributorLead author GConvening lead author Review editor DContributorReview editor Lead author 22Marrakech, EDEN annual meeting 2009 Mythology vs. science (the) totalitarian ambition of the savage mind is quite different from the procedures of scientific thinking It is a way of thinking which must imply that if you don't understand everything, you don't explain anything. Claude Lvi-Strauss (1979). Myth and Meaning; Cracking the code of culture