1 long range decision support system - design overview - institutional knowledge -issues unresolved...
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Long Range Decision Long Range Decision Support SystemSupport System- - Design Overview Design Overview
- Institutional Knowledge - Institutional Knowledge-Issues unresolved-Issues unresolved
Transport Modeling & Software Development Transport Modeling & Software Development
88thth April 2005 April 2005
Bharat SalhotraBharat Salhotra
[email protected]@gmail.com
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Transportation & IRTransportation & IR
• Key Facets– Network Industry
• System wide view is critical
– Diversity of Traffic / Operations• Capacity Implications
– Dynamic • Need for databases to be updated
– Large # of Interrelated variables
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ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN SEQUENTIAL ORDER IS ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN SEQUENTIAL ORDER IS NOT POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERDEPENDENCIESNOT POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERDEPENDENCIES
Interdependent variables of network planning
Solution:
Develop a DSS with three objectives
Model interdependencies at micro levels
Generalize interdependencies at Macro Level
Assess bundle of Investments based on environment
1
2
3
•Traffic /Train Mix
•Train speed differential
•Capacity of network
•Introduction of high-speed
trains•# of yards/ traction
change points
•Network quality
•Throughput
•Complexity in Route structure of freight
trains
•Quality Standards for freight traffic/ passenger
traffic
•Capacity increase of marshalling yards
•# of stops for passenger trains
•Deterioration of infrastructure
•Types of Locos/Wagons
•Market Demand
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System Optimization
vs.
Subsystem Optimization
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Need for LRDSSNeed for LRDSS
• Provides important desktop information for planners / decision-makers for: – Investment planning/project screening– Market analysis– Financial impact analysis– Funds Requirement
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LRDSS: Salient FeaturesLRDSS: Salient Features
• Integrative Character: – Interdisciplinary– System wide Analysis– Simultaneous /Sequential Analysis
• Improvements in Technology/ Operating Policy• Commodity Flows • Routing Plans
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LRDSS: Salient FeaturesLRDSS: Salient Features
• Customized GIS Interface– Integration of different data by location – Evaluate alternative routes – Exhibit pattern of traffic flows
• Strong Decision Support – Prioritize Investments – Position Services to optimize market share. – Analyze Funds required by key year
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LRDSS : Salient FeaturesLRDSS : Salient Features
• Strong Decision Support – Strategic Level Tool– “What-if” Analysis (“With/Without”)– “Sensitivity” Analysis – Information based & Data Driven. – Iterative Evaluation– Modular Design
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LRDSS for Decision SupportLRDSS for Decision Support
PLANNING PROCESS
Models to support different time horizons
Five Year Plans
Strategic Level
Annual Plans
Integrated LRDSS ...
BCAMDAF, FPM
FPM
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Broad Structure of ModelBroad Structure of Model
Traffic Assignment
Market Analysis
Traffic Forecasting
Cost Benefit Analysis
Supply AnalysisSupply Analysis
Demand Analysis
Demand Analysis
Financial Forecasting
Facility Performance
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Facility PerformanceFacility Performance
LINKS TERMINALS
SUPPLY SIDE
+
NETWORK
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Rail Performance Model Rail Performance Model Determine ability to carry trafficDetermine ability to carry traffic
LINK TYPELINK TYPE
TRAIN TYPETRAIN TYPE
CostCurve
SPEED & COST CALCULATOR
TRAFFIC
OPERATING RULE
SpeedCurve
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RAILS OverviewRAILS Overview
• Two Modules :– Train Performance Calculator (TPC)– Train Dispatch Simulator (TDS)
• TPC :– Single Train running on a section – Level of interference = 0– Running determined by track profile and train
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Train Performance CalculatorTrain Performance Calculator
– Uses empirical formulae – Follows TE/Speed Curve, braking curves of
locomotives– Rolling resistance of coaches– Train resistance, grade resistance, air
resistance based on Davis Co-efficient– Train treated as a series of points
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Train Performance Train Performance CalculatorCalculator
TRAIN PERFORMANCE CALCULATOR
TRACK PROFILE
TRAIN PROFILE
LOCOMOTIVE
COACH
WAGON
RUN TIMESFuel ConsumptionSpeed Profile
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TPC Output (Track Profile)TPC Output (Track Profile)
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Train Performance Train Performance
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TRAIN DESPATCH TRAIN DESPATCH SIMULATORSIMULATOR
Scenario
Train Types File
Station File Run Times File
Schedule File
Special Events File
Track FileSet of Trains
Parameter File
Simulation results
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Train Dispatch SimulatorTrain Dispatch Simulator
• Simulates actual train operations – Dispatches trains to resolve conflicts– Allocates resources dynamically– Non priority based, route seeking dispatch– Non Optimizing algorithm
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Train Dispatch SimulatorTrain Dispatch Simulator
• Event based• Useful for analyzing alternative line
configurations– location of LOOPS, CROSSINGS
• Establishment of Train schedules– departure/arrival/halts of trains
• Examination of Capacity Issues– Identification of Conflicts– Meets and Overtakes
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SimulationSimulation
• Calibration:• Within 5% of actual situation on field.
• Congestion & Capacity Modeling– Traffic increased incrementally to obtain
• Congestion Graphs
• Estimated Line Capacity
• Scenario Analysis:• Impact of failures
• Horsepower to Trailing Load ratios
• Passenger Train Halts
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Output from FPMOutput from FPM
• Simulation results of 17 links– transit times & congestion curves by train
type & Link Type– impact of failures (track, signaling, wagons)– capacity based on simulation (not charting)
• Cost Data– working expenses by train type
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Baroda Surat Section Cost for different types of Passenger Trains
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
1 35 44 53 61 80
Trains per Day
Lo
ng
Te
rm L
ine
Ha
ul V
ari
ab
le C
os
t (
Rs
.) p
er
10
00
GT
KM
Shatabdi
SlowPassenger
Rajdhani
MailExpress
CONVERSIONINTO COST FUNCTION
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Market AnalysisMarket Analysis and and
Traffic ForecastTraffic Forecast
DEMAND SIDE MODELING
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Mode Share:Mode Share: Key DeterminantsKey Determinants(from SURVEY)(from SURVEY)
• Volumes • High volumes (>1 lakh TPA) = high rail share if few destinations
• Channel Structure• Flat distribution channels, bulk buyers favor rail movement.
• Flow rate• Raw materials Production line
• Finished goods Consumption Center.
• Lead length• Long lead traffic favors Rail
• Business Service Requirements• JIT ,Reduced Order Quantity, Reliability• Single to multiple suppliers
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Key Factors to SuccessKey Factors to Success
• Core Factors– Reliability, Availability, Price and Transit Time
• Desirable Factors– Connectivity, Product Suitability, Loss/Damage,
Customer Information– Adaptability, Customer Friendliness, Negotiability,
Access to Decision Makers– Ease of Payment & Claim Processing Time
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Market Share AnalysisMarket Share Analysis
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Traffic Forecasting ModuleTraffic Forecasting Module
• Objectives:– Determine Production & Consumption
Functions by Commodity for TAZs– Forecast Origin Destination Flows by
• Commodity• Key Years (2006-07 & 2011-12)
– Identify high growth areas• loading• unloading terminals• Origin Destination Routes
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Traffic Analysis ZonesTraffic Analysis Zones
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MethodologyMethodology
• Different models used for different commodities– GAMS Linear Programming Model
• Assigns traffic by minimizing transportation cost.
– “Furness” Trip Generation Model• Generates OD flows based on movement pattern in the
base year
– Factoring• OD flows are projected based on growth rates.
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# OF TAZs/TERMINALS REPRESENTED BY TYPE
TAZ/TERMINAL TYPE NUMBERFertilizer Plants 79Thermal Power Plants 41Refineries/Specialized Oil Sidings 357Iron ore/Limestone loading points for steel plants 57Coal Depots/Sidings 113Cement Plants 134Steel Plants 42Foodgrain Loading Points 284Iron Ore Loading points for Export 15Non Specialized Terminals/Goodsheds 433
Total 1555
Note: Total number of terminals exceed TAZs (746) due to double
counting w here there is more than one terminal in a TAZ.
Source: LRDSS commodity forecast Analysis
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Traffic Assignment ModuleTraffic Assignment Module
DEMAND + SUPPLYMODELING
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TrafficTraffic AssignmentAssignment ModuleModule
• Operation Research based Freight Network Equilibrium Model.
• Objective function: Minimize total cost of carrying traffic– Assign OD flows on paths using least impedance.
• (= Σ congestion cost on links/nodes )
– Each path consists of series of links and nodes.– Path Cost = aggregated cost of traffic movement over each
link and node.
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Traffic Assignment ModuleTraffic Assignment Module
• Basic Inputs to the Model:– I : Demand Side
• Existing and Future Traffic– Commodity wise flows between pairs of points– Traffic for 2001’02, 2006-’07, 2011-’12
– II: Supply Side• Existing and Future Network
– Sections as well as their Cost Characteristics– Stations as well as their Cost Characteristics
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Network DatabasesNetwork Databases
• Two distinct database representing IR network – Railline Database– Railnode database
• 1796 links & 1531 nodes for base case
• Nodes Database contains information like TAZ, Transshipment point, Rail terminal/yard, Traction change point, reversal etc.
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Attributes of a SectionAttributes of a Section
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Methodology for AssignmentMethodology for Assignment
• Base Year: Assignment on Preferred Paths
• Future Years: – Assignment on both Preferred & Shortest
Paths– Assignment with committed works
• Sequential/Simultaneous
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Analysis of TAM ResultsAnalysis of TAM Results
• Outputs– Commodity wise traffic on each link.– ODs that use a particular link.– Lowest Cost Route path between pairs of
points.– Utilization of each Traction Point.
• These reports can be compared for alternative scenarios.
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Variables HandledVariables Handled
• Data Size & Spread– 900 * 900 * 10 OD matrix elements– 15,000 Rail Paths
• Each Path has average of 50 links – Each link has commodity wise congestion function
– 3 sets of data, by key year
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TAM-Conceptual designTAM-Conceptual design
• Replicate Shipper’s Behavior– What commodity from where to where?
• Replicate Carriers Behavior– What commodity, what route, what train type
• Non Linear Programming Optimization Solver– MINOS
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Sub Modules of TAMSub Modules of TAM• Network Processor
– create a logical multi modal network• access /egress links,• transshipment links, traction change points, nodes
– Output consists of Forward star data structure to be used as input to k path algorithm
• Path generator (K-Short)– creates shortest paths between two O-D Pairs– Input to Solver
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• Carrier Input Processor– Generates MINOS input file – Represents full specifications of carrier model
with unit costs specified as a ‘real valued’ function of path flows (non linear)
• Post processor – Interprets MINOS solution file.– Interfaces with GIS – Query based GIS interface allows graphical
display of bottleneck links, flows etc.
Sub Modules of TAMSub Modules of TAM
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GIS & LRDSSGIS & LRDSS
• Avenue based Path Editor used to check paths generated by “kshort” algorithm
• transshipments, traction change, reversals• create new paths via certain given stations
• User Interface to facilitate Data Analysis through – Data browser– Query Builder– Chart generator
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Path Editor to display/define routesPath Editor to display/define routes
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Path EditorPath Editor
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Cost Benefit Analysis & Cost Benefit Analysis & Investment PlanningInvestment Planning
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Utility of LRDSSUtility of LRDSS
• LRDSS is a powerful tool for enabling a pre-feasibility analysis.
• Results are only indicative– micro modeling to gauge impact of specific
investment/policy initiatives. – availability of financial resources needs to be
matched with priority of projects.
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Phase IIIPhase III
• Strengthen existing model with – Terminal Analysis– Multi-Modal Traffic Analysis– Benchmarking Operations
• Improve Information availability on desktop of decision-makers
• Interconnect
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Terminal Analysis ModuleTerminal Analysis Module
– Objective• Develop a better understanding of terminal
operations• Use Process modeling to estimate detentions
and impact of such detentions• Evaluate investment options to minimize
detentions and improve efficiency at terminals
– Simulation Model instead of a Numerical Model
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Stylized DiagramsStylized Diagrams
• Terminal representation using six standard features– Entry Exit Points – Support Yards – Customer Sidings– Platforms– Intersections– Connections
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Facilities Database Facilities Database
• Associated with a Facility are 3 types of fields• Time related fields• Capacity related fields• Resource related fields
• E.g. a support yard would have fields specifying • Examination Time (Average, Minimum, Maximum)• Shunting Engine Attach/Detach Time TIME• “Waiting for Train Engine” Time TIME• Number of Tracks CAPACITY• Number of examination gangs RESOURCE
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Trains Database Trains Database
– Brain Train• Trains have an ID, type and commodity
associated • Arrival Day and Time• Predefined Route assigned to the train
– Route Descriptions• START at ENTRY POINT• Sequence of FACILITIES a train has to USE• Quantum of RESOURCE & TIME required • END at EXIT point
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Tuglakabad Terminal
R&DCONCOR
DNRCV
DNCLAS
SDNDEPT
UPDEPT
UPCLAS
S UPRCV
BTPPSUPP
DAIRY
BALLAST
DIESEL
ICDCONCOR
ELECTRIC
MINERAL
SAIL
TATA
DCD
BTPP
PFINT
NX-CR
NX-DA
TKDTKD
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SimulationSimulation
• Terminal Process model simulates– Movement of trains on routes through Terminal– Delays of trains due to limited resources– Delays due to crew change– Loading/unloading at customer siding– Interaction with passenger trains sharing
facilities with goods trains– Disruptions at facilities
• User Interface
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Model OutputsModel Outputs
• Train delays (process times and non-process times) by train
• Assignment of delay to– facility – resource
• Activity summary of utilization of all of the facilities and resources, including
• time spent in examination, loading/unloading• track usage
• Feed investment analysis
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Traffic Growth Rate by Commodity & OD
Freight Flows in Corridor
Mode Split Model
Target Year Total Flows
Qualitative Preference data
Target Year Rail Container Flows
Operational Statistics
Infrastructure Requirements
Cost Benefit Analysis
Multimodal Corridor Analysis ModelMultimodal Corridor Analysis Model
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Mode Split ModelMode Split Model
• Parameters– Price– Transit Time– Service Quality Index (Reliability, Availability,
Frequency, Loss & Damage)– Product Suitability
• Form– Cobb Douglas
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Multimodal Corridor Analysis ModelMultimodal Corridor Analysis Model
– Estimate Total Traffic
– Estimate Operational Requirements (Throughput, Trains, Lifts etc.)
– Estimate Capital Requirements (Infrastructure, Rolling Stock, Equipment)
– Estimate Cash Flows
– Calculate IRR
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Resource RequirementsResource Requirements
• Terminal Resources – Land– Rail Lines– Equipment (stackers, trailers, gantry cranes)– Gates– C&W
• Rolling Stock
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Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis
• Assess different Investment alternatives– Do minimum (only soft changes)– De-Bottlenecking– Full Fledged Corridor
• Assess Pricing Strategies
• Assess Impact of Service Levels
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Interconnect-LRDSS & Other IR Interconnect-LRDSS & Other IR DatabasesDatabases
MIS(annual
summariese.g. Traffic)
FOIS(annual
summariese.g. op. stats)
Planning Data(Project Data)
Engineering Data
(Improvementsand Unit Costs)Railway Board/
LRDSSDatabases(Scenario
Data)Financial
Data(e.g. budgets)
Zonal Railway Data(Line and Section Data)
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LRDSSData
Storage
Intranet
Tape Storage
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS Client LRDSS Client
LRDSS ClientCDROM Reader
CDROM Reader
GIS/Trans E-mail and FTP Site
ScannerPlotter
IR Web Page
CDWORMWriter
CDROMReader
CDROMReader
CDROMReader
LRDSS Site Componentto be Acquired
Componentto be Deleted
v
RAILSSimulation
Module
LRDSS MDV Clients
CDROMReader
LRDSS LAN
Current LRDSS Architecture
v
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LRDSSData
Storage(Oracle)
Internet
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS Client LRDSS Client
LRDSS MDV Client
CDROM Reader
ScannerPlotter
CDWORMWriter
CDROM Reader CDROM Reader CDROM Reader
Pilot LRDSS Clientat Zonal Railway
CDROM Reader
CDROM Reader
RAILSSimulation
Module
RAILSSimulation
Module
BCAMlite
Railway Board LAN
LRDSS MDV Clients
OtherIR
Databases(FOIS, TMS,
MIS)
Proposed Short Term LRDSS Architecture
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LRDSSData
Storage(Oracle+
SDE)
Internetor WAN
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS MDV Client LRDSS Client(Expert User)
LRDSS MDV Client
CDWORMWriter
LRDSS Clientsat Zonal Railways
RAILSSimulation
Module
RAILSSimulation
Module
GIS/Trans E-mail and FTP Site
IR Web Page
IR FTP Site
LRDSS MDV Clients
MoreMDV
Clients
with CDROM Readers
LRDSS Unit
LRDSS MDV Clients
OtherIR
Databases(MIS+FOIS+
Planning)
Other ZonalRailways
OtherZonal
RailwaysDatabases(incl. GIS)
RAILSSimulation
Module
BCAMlite
BCAMlite
RAILSSimulation
Module
Railway Board LAN
Proposed Medium Term Architecture (1 ½ - 3 years)
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KEY AREAS FOR KEY AREAS FOR COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
• LINE CAPACITY SIMULATOR
• TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT MODEL– PATH GENERATOR– OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM
• PASSENGER TERMINAL DESIGN
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THANK YOUTHANK YOU