1 lean launchpad e@ubc q3 2013 paul cubbon blair simonite
TRANSCRIPT
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Lean LaunchPade@UBC
Q3 2013
Paul Cubbon
Blair Simonite
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Course Introduction• Customer discovery and b-model
design• Course objectives• How the class works
– Blogs, backchannel• The Contract
– Instructors– Mentors– teams
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Steve Blank’s “Customer Development” 2006
• Problem: Startups fail from lack of customers, not lack of product
• Solution: Develop Customers and Products together
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Company
Building
Customer Development
CustomerDiscovery
Customer Development is as important as Product Development
Concept/Bus. Plan
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
Product Development
CustomerValidation
Customer
Creation
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Steve Blank 2012
A startup is not a small version of a large company.
A startup is a temporary organization in search of a
scalable, repeatable, profitable business model.
Startup Owners Manual
Search vs. Execution
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This course is all aboutthe Search
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Objectives• Learn how to organize & execute sales,
marketing and business development in your search for a viable business model for your product
• Learn relevant “people skills”– Listening, inquiry, presenting, mindset– Entrepreneurship is about people as much as
product• Have fun along the way
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Principles• Hypothesize & test your value proposition,
customer segments, revenue model...• Get out of the building and talk to
customers. • Fail early, pivot fast!
Our focus is on customers and the market, not the technology or product.
Process
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Technology Ventures: From Idea to OpportunityChapter 7: Figure 7.3
Resources Financial Physical Intellectual
Deal Reward, Risks Incentives Ownership Harvest
People The Team Capabilities Attitude Reputation
Opportunity Customers Strategy Business Model
The Business
Plan
The Biz Plan
The Business Model Canvas
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Keep Track of Iterations
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Week nWeek n
Week 1Week 1
Week 2Week 2
test
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Hypotheses
Guess GuessGuess Guess Guess
GuessGuess
Guess Guess
Markets & Customers
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Technology adoption curve
Techies:Just try it!
Pragmatists:Stick with the herd!
Conservatives:Stick with what’s proven!
Skeptics:Just say No!
Visionaries:Get ahead of the herd!
Copyright © Geoffrey A. Moore, 2005, from the book “DEALING WITH DARWIN”
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New Market “Chasm”
Ch
asm
EarlyAdopters
Pragmatists Conservatives
Laggards
Copyright © Geoffrey A. Moore, 2005, from the book “DEALING WITH DARWIN”
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? Instant Success ?
In 4th year after launch.
( ie 6 years )
This is as fast as it gets.
NB. Apple's fiscal year ends in September. This means that Q1 includes the holiday season, which accounts for jumps in the data. Fiscal Q1 is Oct - Dec of previous year. So Q1 of 2008 is Oct - Dec of 2007, Q2 of 2008 is Jan - Mar of 2008 and so on.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ipod_sales_per_quarter.svg
The Process
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It’s The Scientific Process
• Hypothesis• Develop Test• Observe• Analyze Results
• Revise Hypothesis• Do it again
( many times … Quickly )
• Apply to Customers
• Product / Market Fit is what you are looking for.• Is not obvious
Search vs. Execution
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Execution Looks Like This
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Bill Buxton, “Sketching User Experience”
Search Looks Like This
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Expect multiple iterations
http://blog.startupcompass.co/what-the-fortune-1000-can-learn-from-the-star
Model – Knowledge Funnel“What Do You Know”
Roger Martin’s Knowledge Funnel Mystery Heuristic Algorithm
! Very Useful for our class !
You start in the Mystery Zone
( the guesses )
Success is getting it to “Heuristic zone”
(what are the “rules-of-thumb”)
Grand Slam is getting it to the “Algorithm” zone
(repeatable, scalable, profitable)
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Source: Design of Business, Roger Martin
YOU ARE HERE
The 8 weeks
• In Class– Paul/Blair Presentations
• Process, Theory, Personal Skills– Every class: teams do project update
presentations• TAM/SAM, Canvas, Experiments, #Calls
• In Between Classes– “You” Get Out of the Building– “You” Blog Your Progress– “We” monitor & comment on blogs
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How the Class Works
Break
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