1 james gillespies primary school: rising rolls marchmont and sciennes community council / james...
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James Gillespie’s Primary School:
Rising Rolls
Marchmont and Sciennes Community Council / James Gillespie’s Parent Council
27 February 2013
Lindsay GlasgowAsset Planning ManagerChildren and Families
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Historic Rolls
29,100
34,000
29,400
35,400
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Population Aged 5-11 in the City of Edinburgh 1981-2010
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Projected RollsCEC Projected Population Aged 5-11 & School Rolls
24,500
31,000
29,200
36,100
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
36,000
40,000
Proj Roll
GRO Aged 5-11(Rev 08)
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Projected Rolls
• 20% increase between 2012 and 2019• Currently 25,900 pupils in CEC primary
schools• Projected to increase by 5,200 by 2019• Thereafter plateau, then start falling
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Rising Birth RatesNumber of Births in the City of Edinburgh 1991-2001
4,890
4,490
5,600
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
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Rising Birth Rates
• Number of births has risen since 2004• First felt in P1 intakes in 2009• P1 intakes expected to peak in 2015/16• Total primary roll will peak in 2019
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Forecasting Intakes• Large variations at local level; peaks
and troughs• No close correlation between births and
P1 intakes• Changing trends:
▪ Migration across the city ▪ Housing market influence – less people
moving▪ Private sector influence
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Additional Accommodation
• Reuse of existing space, with condition upgrade
• Additional, permanent classrooms being built at four schools for 2013
• Part of an estate wide project with a menu of four standardised designs
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P1 Catchment Numbers at James Gillespie’s Primary School
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JGPS catchment numbers
• Increase in P1 catchment numbers at school of 69% over 6 years
• Catchment numbers have been increasing
• Number of placing requests to other schools decreasing
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Births and Non Denominational Catchment P1 Intakes
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James Gillespie’s 2013 P1 Intake
• Catchment registrations currently 81 pupils
• May have to create 3rd P1 class this year• Monitor numbers – eg 9 deferrals
notified• School would be advised in May of
proposed organisation as part of standard placement process
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South side area: Births & Catchment Numbers(James Gillespie's, Bruntsfield and South Morningside)
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James Gillespie's future intakes
Options:• 60 pupils with 3 teachers – preferred
option – becomes two classes at P2• 66 pupils with 3 teachers – becomes
two classes at P4• 75 pupils – three classes at P1;
subsequent intake would be 70
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Accommodation requirements• 2 classbases in the TUs potentially cover
4 years to deliver a permanent solution▪ An intake of 75 in 2013 would require 15
classes▪ An intake of 70 in 2014 would still be
contained within 15 classes▪ An intake of up to 75 in 2015 would require
the 16th class▪ An intake of 70 in 2016 would still be
contained within the 16 classes
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Permanent solutions
• New School to serve area?• Catchment review?• Permanent new accommodation ?• Annexe accommodation?
What other ideas do the Parent Council have that they would like explored?