11

Industry Plenary and Round Table

16th World CongressStockholm 2009

Steve HemingerExecutive Director

Metropolitan Transportation CommissionSan Francisco Bay Area, USA

22

33

FreightFreight

44

Growth in U.S. Container Trade ContinuesGrowth in U.S. Container Trade Continues

2000-2028

Source: Global Insight

55

1,4371,437

6,1656,165

(TEUs in thousands)

20202020

20042004

HoustonHouston

13,10113,101

LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15

22,152

MiamiMiami

2,0432,0433,3823,382

OaklandOakland

4,4784,478

15,83515,835

NY/NJNY/NJ

1,8091,809

5,5665,566

VirginiaVirginia

1,8601,860

6,6396,639

CharlestonCharleston

1,6621,662

9,4209,420

SavannahSavannah

1,7981,7984,3964,396

TacomaTacoma

1,7761,776 2,5572,557

SeattleSeattle

59,42059,420

Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression

Dramatic Increase in Port ActivityDramatic Increase in Port ActivityVolume of trade: 2004 and 2020

Source: U.S. DOT

66

Truck Rail Water Air Total

More trade means more domesticfreight movementsMore trade means more domesticfreight movements

West region +65%

South region +71%

Central

region +71%

Northeast region +58%

U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020

U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020

20202020

20002000

% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020

62% 44% 39% 181% 57%

10,70010,700

17,29617,296

2,0092,009

2,8912,891

1,0541,054

1,4701,470

13,77213,772

21,68221,682

992525

(tons in millions)

Source: U.S. DOT

77

Metro MobilityMetro Mobility

88

In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours AnnuallyIn Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually

Source: Texas Transportation Institute

99

Metros Capture Huge Market ShareMetros Capture Huge Market Share

10 Megaregions

Metro Areas>1 Million

1 Share of U.S. Population 68% 58%

2 Share of GDP 78% 61%

3 Share of Traffic Congestion 92% 97%

4 Share of Transit Ridership 93% 92%

5 Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Pollutants 94% 88%

Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA

1010

Fuel Efficiency/Energy Security/Climate Change

Fuel Efficiency/Energy Security/Climate Change

1111

Annual Petroleum Production, Imports and Consumption In the U.S., 1949–2006

Annual Petroleum Production, Imports and Consumption In the U.S., 1949–2006

Source: Energy Information Administration

11

1212

International Fuel Economy ComparisonInternational Fuel Economy ComparisonComparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards

for new-sale light-duty vehicles

Sou

rce:

UC

Berk

ele

y

12

1313

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use: 1985-2006U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use: 1985-2006

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2007

1414

SafetySafety

1515

U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMTU.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMT

Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

1616

Lessons from the San Francisco Bay Area

Lessons from the San Francisco Bay Area

1717

Premise 1: Transportation is Critical Premise 1: Transportation is Critical

Sources: USEIA, BAAQMDSources: USEIA, BAAQMD

Transportation: Transportation: 14%14% TransportationTransportation: :

41%41%

WorldWorld Bay Bay AreaArea

Green House Gases Compared

1818

Premise 2:Tighter Emission Standards Necessary But Not Sufficient

Premise 2:Tighter Emission Standards Necessary But Not Sufficient

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

1990=100

Baseline VMT

Baseline CO2

CO2 Pavley

C02 State 2020 Goal

1919

Premise 3: Location Matters

Premise 3: Location Matters

Growing Cooler: Compared to sprawl, compact development results in a 20 to 40 percent reduction in

VMT and hence in CO2

2020

Premise 4: Price MattersMore

Premise 4: Price MattersMore

Core Pricing:Driving is more expensive in the urban core with parking costs and bridge tolls

2121

A Local-Regional Partnership is EssentialA Local-Regional Partnership is Essential

Land Use Transportation

Sustainable Communities StrategySustainable Communities Strategy

Local AuthorityLocal Authority Regional AuthorityRegional Authority

2222

Some Impacts Now…Many Much LaterSome Impacts Now…Many Much LaterShort TermShort Term Long TermLong Term

Parking PolicyParking Policy

EV InfrastructureEV Infrastructure

Carbon taxes/Road PricingCarbon taxes/Road Pricing

Compact & Complete CommunitiesCompact & Complete Communities

Transit-oriented Employment CentersTransit-oriented Employment Centers

SCS Mobility Management Tools

2323

U.S. ExamplesU.S. Examples

Federal Policy – Transportation for Tomorrow Focus on Metro Mobility Urban Partnership Program to conduct large scale

demonstrations of strategies to improve urban mobility Multi-modal traveler information systems to influence

travel decisions Transit-oriented development to encourage alternatives to

private cars Car sharing High Occupancy Toll lanes Traffic management systems to use existing capacity Intellidrive program to design connectivity between

vehicles and the roadway

2424

Working Together in the FutureFocus on Urban Mobility

Working Together in the FutureFocus on Urban Mobility

Share developments in technology and policy that focus on solving metropolitan transportation problems

Example: CIVITAS program – bring good ideas to scale Traveler information systems designed for the next

generation In-vehicle and roadside communication in real time Improve intermodal freight movement to reduce impacts on

urban centers Dynamic management of existing infrastructure Integrate pricing, fare payment, parking charges

Link land use planning and transportation investment to improve urban mobility

2525

Cooperation between ModesCooperation between Modes

Establish common targets for GHG emission reduction, urban congestion mitigation, safety and equity

Optimize modal contributions to meeting these targets Achieve dynamic management of existing

infrastructure to optimize existing capacity. Implement intermodal electronic payment systems to

allow ease of movement while achieving pricing objectives

Supply real-time information to help make informed decisions

2626

System Management & ITSSystem Management & ITS

System management approach relies on ITS projects to: Manage traffic, Improve freeway and arterial operations, Ensure rapid response to and clearance of

freeway incidents, Inform travelers about options on-demand and in

real-time, and Simplify access with electronic payment systems.

2727

ITS SolutionsITS Solutions

Freeway Performance Initiative & Related Efforts Ramp metering Traffic detection Information systems

511 Traveler Information Services

Vehicle Infrastructure Integration / IntelliDriveSM

Electronic Payment Systems