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I N T E G R A T E D S I N K E N H A N C E M E N T A S S E S S M E N T

INSEA PARTNERS

Uwe SchneiderDagmar SchwabOskar Franklin

Alexander MoiseyevMichael Obersteiner

Florian KraxnerGlen Armstrong

EUFASOM Forestry Sector

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector

People love chopping wood,in this activity one immediately

sees results

Albert Einstein

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorEU FOREST AND AGRICULTURE SECTOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL

Producer and Consumer Welfare

Forestry SectorAgriculture Sector

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorOverview

Forest sector in EUFASOM

InputConstraints

Output

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorInput Data:

Oskar Model (Oskar Franklin)

Forest Sector GTM (Alexander Moiseyev)

FAOSTAT

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector Oskar Model

delivers biomass, tree number, harvest costs …etc. for each country, each species, each managing type (thinning), each period, each cohort.

(code input:) 2005.Bulg.Spruce.30-35.NoThin.Carbon 43.41 tons per

ha

2005.Slvk.Car.105-110.NoThin.HarvestCost 1159.43 EUR per ha

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector are used as starting data

and constraint parameters

(the Oskar Model simulates the grow of the trees…-> this corresponds to CO2 fertilisation ->Exogenous parameters have a time dimension)

(code input:)

2070.Port.DouglasFir.55-60.NoThin.HarvestLabour 25.12

h per ha

6.6 million data-lines from the Oskar

Model

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorForest Sector GTMIIASA/EFIProcess data

production of secondary products made out of primary products

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorProcess: HardWoodSAWING(code input:)

Needs Labour -3.00 hours

Needs Electricity -70.00 kWNeeds OtherCosts - 17.60

EuroNeeds HardWoodSawLogs - 2.10 m3

Produces HardWoodPulpChips 0.72 m3

Produces PanelChips 0.22 m3

Produces EnergyChips 0.11 m3

Produces HardWoodSawnWood 1.05 m3

in Czech Republic

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorFAOSTAT

demand and supply data per Product and Country demand

and supply price, quantity, elasticity

e.g. plywood, graphic paper, panel chips, energy chips….

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector

Primary forest products

Cost,labour…

Forest area

secondary forest products

Cost,labour…

Primary forest products

Oskar Data

GTM

Exogenous Data

Demand

Trade limit (transportation cost)

Products

FAOSTAT

and other exogenous data…..

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector

Endogenous Variables

GTM, FAOSTAT

other exogenous DataOskar Data Objective functionconstraints

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorOBJECTIVE FUNCTION OF EUFASOM:

Total Welfare = Consumer Surplus + Producer Surplus

+ Governmental Net Payments – Cost of Production

– Cost of Transport – Cost of Processing

s.t. constraints

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorConstraints:e.g. Forest Inventory Equations

(simplyfied):fv(period, cohort) –fv(period-1,cohort-1)

–fv(period-1,oldestcohort)+hv(period,cohort)=fia(firstperiod,cohort)

fv……forest variable (forest area) (ENDO.)hv……harvest variable (harvested wood area) (ENDO.)fia……forest initial area (EXO. DATA)Constant:country, soil-type, soil-state, species, owner,

management

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorFORINVENT_EQU(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT, FORTECH,POLICY)..FOREST_VAR(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTE

CH,POLICY)$

(FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY,

SOILTYPE)AND(FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,"ALLTHIN",POLICY,"AREA") OR (NOT YOUNGEST(COHORT))))

- FOREST_VAR(PERIOD-1,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT-1,FORTECH,POLICY) $((NOT FIRST(PERIOD)) AND (NOT YOUNGEST(COHORT)) ANDFOREST_DATA(PERIOD-1,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT-

1,FORTECH,POLICY,SOILTYPE)) - FOREST_VAR(PERIOD-1,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY) $((NOT FIRST(PERIOD)) and OLDEST(COHORT) AND FOREST_DATA(PERIOD-

1,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY,SOILTYPE)) + HARVEST_VAR(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY) $(FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY,"HarvestCost") AND

(FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY,"AREA") OR (NOT YOUNGEST(COHORT)))) =E=INITIALFOREST_VAR(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,FORTECH,POLICY) $(FIRST(PERIOD) AND

FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,COHORT,"ALLTHIN",POLICY,"AREA"));

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector

WELFARE

11 resource equation blocks

5 enviroment

al

externality

accounts

equation blocks

10 production equation blocks

policy

equation blocks

(number varies)

8 separable programmi

ng

equation blocks

endogenous variables

input data

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorResultsendogenous variables and marginal of

equations• Harvest age• Harvest species• Average harvest age• Species change• Product prices• Trade• …

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector20

15

2030

2045

2060

2075

2090 30

40

55

70

80

90 100 11

0 120 13

0

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1000 ha

Periods Cohorts

Harvest Area Germany

no agriculture , no trade, no carbon tax

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EUFASOM Forestry

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304055708090

100

110

120

130B

eech

Dou

glas

Fir

Lar

ch

Sco

tsP

ine

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1000 ha

CohortsSpecies

Germany Harvest Area

Beech BroadLeaf DouglasFir Fir Larch Oak ScotsPine Spruce

no agriculture , no trade, no carbon tax

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EUFASOM Forestry

Sector20

15

2025

2035

2045

2055

2065

2075

2085

2095 30 50 55 65 70 80 90 95 10

010

511

011

512

012

513

013

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1000 ha

PeriodsCohorts

Harvest Area Finland

no agriculture , no trade, no carbon tax

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EUFASOM Forestry

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3050556570809095

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135B

irch

Pop

lar

Sp

ruce

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1000 ha

CohortsSpecies

Finland Harvest Area

Birch BroadLeaf Poplar ScotsPine Spruce

no agriculture , no trade, no carbon tax

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EUFASOM Forestry

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010

50100

Finl

Germ020406080

100

120

years

carbon tax [EUR/t]

average harvest age

Year: 2020

Including thinning

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorGermany: percentage to 0 Carbon Tax by a rise of

50 Euro per metric tons Carbon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Gra

ph

ic P

aper

Har

d W

ood

Pan

el C

arb

on

Har

d W

ood

Ply

woo

d

Har

d W

ood

Pu

lp L

ogs

Har

d W

ood

Saw

n L

og S

ub

s

Har

d W

ood

Saw

n W

ood

Oth

er P

aper

Pan

el

Sof

t W

ood

Car

bon

Pu

lpin

g

Sof

t W

ood

Pan

el C

arb

on

Sof

t W

ood

Pu

lp L

og S

ub

s

Sof

t W

ood

Saw

n L

og S

ub

s

Sof

t W

ood

Saw

n W

ood

Tis

suepe

rcen

tage

of

acti

vity

com

p. t

o 0

EU

R/t

2020

No trade

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EUFASOM Forestry

SectorConclusion

1) EUFASOM Forest Sector is established• Forest Industry (sawmilling, wood panel, pulp and

paper)• Physical flows, financial flows• Labor effects2) Climate policy analysis is carried out• average harvest age is increasing• We see substitution effects on the pulpwood market

from hard wood to softwood pulp logs3) Future• Technology update in cooperation with the

EFORWOOD project• Assessment of relative competitiveness of harvested

wood products• Other input updates